• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• v.2
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• pp.635-638
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• 2006

Regression of conventional prediction techniques in data mining uses the model which is generated from the training step. This model is applied to new input data without any change. If this model is applied directly to time series, the rate of prediction accuracy will be decreased. This paper proposes an incremental regression for time series prediction like typhoon track prediction. This technique considers the characteristic of time series which may be changed over time. It is composed of two steps. The first step executes a fractional process for applying input data to the regression model. The second step updates the model by using its information as new data. Additionally, the model is maintained by only recent data in a queue. This approach has the following two advantages. It maintains the minimum information of the model by using a matrix, so space complexity is reduced. Moreover, it prevents the increment of error rate by updating the model over time. Accuracy rate of the proposed method is measured by RME(Relative Mean Error) and RMSE(Root Mean Square Error). The results of typhoon track prediction experiment are performed by the proposed technique IMLR(Incremental Multiple Linear Regression) is more efficient than those of MLR(Multiple Linear Regression) and SVR(Support Vector Regression).

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2014

In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple regression (MR) models were developed to predict the critical factor of safety ($F_s$) of the homogeneous finite slopes subjected to earthquake forces. To achieve this, the values of $F_s$ in 5184 nos. of homogeneous finite slopes having different slope, soil and earthquake parameters were calculated by using the Simplified Bishop method and the minimum (critical) $F_s$ for each of the case was determined and used in the development of the ANN and MR models. The results obtained from both the models were compared with those obtained from the calculations. It is found that the ANN model exhibits more reliable predictions than the MR model. Moreover, several performance indices such as the determination coefficient, variance account for, mean absolute error, root mean square error, and the scaled percent error were computed. Also, the receiver operating curves were drawn, and the areas under the curves (AUC) were calculated to assess the prediction capacity of the ANN and MR models developed. The performance level attained in the ANN model shows that the ANN model developed can be used for predicting the critical $F_s$ of the homogeneous finite slopes subjected to earthquake forces.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.21-31
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• 2015

Various crop models have been extensively used for estimation of the crop yields. Compared to the other models, the EPIC model uses a unified approach to simulate more than 100 types of crops. It has been successfully applied in simulating crop yields for various combinations of weather conditions, soil properties, crops, and management schemes in many countries. The objective of this study was to estimate the rice and maize yield in South Korea using the EPIC model. The input datasets for the 30 types in the 11 categories were created for the EPIC model. The EPIC model simulated rice and maize yields. The performance of the EPIC model was evaluated with the goodness-of-fit measures including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Relative Error (RE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSEC), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Pearson Correelation Coefficient (r). The rice yield showed to more high accuracy than maize yield on four type of method without NSEC. Theses results showed that the EPIC model better simulated rice yields than maize yields. The results suggest that the EPIC crop model can be useful to estimate crop yield in South Korea.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.638-643
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• 2013

This paper presents a 5-bit digital step attenuator (DSA) using a commercial 0.18-${\mu}m$ silicon-on-insulator (SOI) process for the wideband phased array antenna. Both low insertion loss and low root mean square (RMS) phase error and amplitude error are achieved employing two attenuation topologies of the switched path attenuator and the switched T-type attenuator. The attenuation coverage of 31 dB with a least significant bit of 1 dB is achieved at DC to 20 GHz. The RMS phase error and amplitude error are less than $2.5^{\circ}$ and less than 0.5 dB, respectively. The measured insertion loss of the reference state is less than 5.5 dB at 10 GHz. The input return loss and output return loss are each less than 12 dB at DC to 20 GHz. The current consumption is nearly zero with a voltage supply of 1.8 V. The chip size is $0.93mm{\times}0.68mm$, including pads. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first demonstration of a low phase error DC-to-20-GHz SOI DSA.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.269-275
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• 2008

This study was conducted to design an impedance sensor that can measure soil water content of soils. Partial least square regression (PLSR) was applied to soil impedance data preprocessed with a smoothing method. An optimal sub-spectrum size and wavelength range were determined by comparing the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the PLSR models obtained using soil impedance data. various PLS analysis. Based on the PLSR analysis, it would be concluded that the optimal spectrum measurement range was $32.0{\sim}50.0\;MHz$ with the optimal sub-spectrum size of about 18.5 MHz.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.311-319
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• 2020

India is a developing nation and heavily spends on the development of wind power plants to meet the national energy demand. The objective of this paper is to investigate wind power potential of Ennore site using wind data collected over a period of two years by three parameter Weibull distribution. The Weibull parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood, least square method and moment method and the accuracy is determined using R² and root mean square error values. The site specific capacity factor is calculated by the mathematical model developed by three parameter Weibull distribution at different hub heights above the ground level. At last, the wind energy economic analysis is carried out using capacity factor at 30 m, 40 m and 50 m height for different wind turbine models. The analysis showed that the site has potential to install utility wind turbines to generate energy at the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour at height of 50 m. This research provides information of wind characteristics of potential sites and helps in selecting suitable wind turbine.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.139-147
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• 2020

The sunspot area is a critical physical quantity for assessing the solar activity level; forecasts of the sunspot area are of great importance for studies of the solar activity and space weather. We developed an innovative hybrid model prediction method by integrating the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and extreme learning machine (ELM). The time series is first decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different frequencies by CEEMD; these IMFs can be divided into three groups, a high-frequency group, a low-frequency group, and a trend group. The ELM forecasting models are established to forecast the three groups separately. The final forecast results are obtained by summing up the forecast values of each group. The proposed hybrid model is applied to the smoothed monthly mean sunspot area archived at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). We find a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.80% and 9.75, respectively, which indicates that: (1) for the CEEMD-ELM model, the predicted sunspot area is in good agreement with the observed one; (2) the proposed model outperforms previous approaches in terms of prediction accuracy and operational efficiency.

• Transactions of Materials Processing
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• v.21 no.8
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• pp.479-484
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• 2012

The objective of this study is to compensate the elastic recovery in the flexible forming process using the predictive models. The target shape was limited to two-dimensional shape having only one curvature radius in the longitudinal-direction. In order to predict the shape error the regression and neural network models were established based on the finite element (FE) simulations. A series of simulations were conducted considering input variables such as the elastic pad thickness, the thickness of plate, and the objective curvature radius. Then, at sampling points in the longitudinal-direction, the shape errors between formed and objective shapes could be calculated from the FE simulations as an output variable. These shape errors were expressed to a representative error value by the root mean square error (RMSE). To obtain the correct objective shape the die shape was adjusted by the closed-loop using the neural network model since the neural network model shows a higher capability of estimating the shape error than the regression model. Finally the experimental result shows that the formed shape almost agreed with the objective shape.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.82-90
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• 2013

Concentration errors critically affect the performance of solar concentrator, so their evaluation is important to the concentrated solar power technology. However, the evaluation is very challenging because error sources are various and not easy to measure individually. Therefore, the integrated effect of concentration errors is often more interesting and useful for large-scale applications. In the present work, we analytically investigate and classify various concentration error sources and then explain that the effect of various concentration errors can be represented in terms of a root mean square value of reflector surface slope error. We present an indirect approach to assessing the reflector surface slope error by comparing solar flux measurement data with modeling calculations. We apply the approach for solar furnaces with different thermal capacity and investigate its advantages and disadvantages.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.16 no.10
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• pp.1816-1823
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• 1992

In order to develop general CMAC training technique applicable to any CMAC, characteristics of CMAC learning algorithm and training problems of CMAC are studied. Neighborhood Sequential Training technique which is general and free fro CMAC learning interference is proposed. The technique is used to generate mathematical functions and found to be effective.