• Title/Summary/Keyword: root-mean-square error

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Optimization of Tank Model Parameters Using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (I): Methodology and Model Formulation (다목적 유전자알고리즘을 이용한 Tank 모형 매개변수 최적화(I): 방법론과 모형구축)

  • Kim, Tae-Soon;Jung, Il-Won;Koo, Bo-Young;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.9
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    • pp.677-685
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of multi-objective genetic algorithm(MOGA) in order to calibrate the parameters of conceptual rainfall-runoff model, Tank model. NSGA-II, one of the most imitating MOGA implementations, is combined with Tank model and four multi-objective functions such as to minimize volume error, root mean square error (RMSE), high flow RMSE, and low flow RMSE are used. When NSGA-II is employed with more than three multi-objective functions, a number of Pareto-optimal solutions usually becomes too large. Therefore, selecting several preferred Pareto-optimal solutions is essential for stakeholder, and preference-ordering approach is used in this study for the sake of getting the best preferred Pareto-optimal solutions. Sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the effect of initial genetic parameters, which are generation number and Population size, to the performance of NSGA-II for searching the proper paramters for Tank model, and the result suggests that the generation number is 900 and the population size is 1000 for this study.

An Evaluation of a Dasymetric Surface Model for Spatial Disaggregation of Zonal Population data (구역단위 인구자료의 공간적 세분화를 위한 밀도 구분적 표면모델에 대한 평가)

  • Jun, Byong-Woon
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.614-630
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    • 2006
  • Improved estimates of populations at risk for quick and effective response to natural and man-made disasters require spatial disaggregation of zonal population data because of the spatial mismatch problem in areal units between census and impact zones. This paper implements a dasymetric surface model to facilitate spatial disaggregation of the population of a census block group into populations associated with each constituent pixel and evaluates the performance of the surface-based spatial disaggregation model visually and statistically. The surface-based spatial disaggregation model employed geographic information systems (GIS) to enable dasymetric interpolation to be guided by satellite-derived land use and land cover data as additional information about the geographic distributor of population. In the spatial disaggregation, percent cover based empirical sampling and areal weighting techniques were used to objectively determine dasymetric weights for each grid cell. The dasymetric population surface for the Atlanta metropolitan area was generated by the surface-based spatial disaggregation model. The accuracy of the dasymetric population surface was tested on census counts using the root mean square error (RMSE) and an adjusted RMSE. The errors related to each census track and block group were also visualized by percent error maps. Results indicate that the dasymetric population surface provides high-precision estimates of populations as well as the detailed spatial distribution of population within census block groups. The results also demonstrate that the population surface largely tends to overestimate or underestimate population for both the rural and forested and the urban core areas.

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Yield Prediction of Chinese Cabbage (Brassicaceae) Using Broadband Multispectral Imagery Mounted Unmanned Aerial System in the Air and Narrowband Hyperspectral Imagery on the Ground

  • Kang, Ye Seong;Ryu, Chan Seok;Kim, Seong Heon;Jun, Sae Rom;Jang, Si Hyeong;Park, Jun Woo;Sarkar, Tapash Kumar;Song, Hye young
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.138-147
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: A narrowband hyperspectral imaging sensor of high-dimensional spectral bands is advantageous for identifying the reflectance by selecting the significant spectral bands for predicting crop yield over the broadband multispectral imaging sensor for each wavelength range of the crop canopy. The images acquired by each imaging sensor were used to develop the models for predicting the Chinese cabbage yield. Methods: The models for predicting the Chinese cabbage (Brassica campestris L.) yield, with multispectral images based on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), were developed by simple linear regression (SLR) using vegetation indices, and forward stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) using four spectral bands. The model with hyperspectral images based on the ground were developed using forward stepwise MLR from the significant spectral bands selected by dimension reduction methods based on a partial least squares regression (PLSR) model of high precision and accuracy. Results: The SLR model by the multispectral image cannot predict the yield well because of its low sensitivity in high fresh weight. Despite improved sensitivity in high fresh weight of the MLR model, its precision and accuracy was unsuitable for predicting the yield as its $R^2$ is 0.697, root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 1170 g/plant, relative error (RE) is 67.1%. When selecting the significant spectral bands for predicting the yield using hyperspectral images, the MLR model using four spectral bands show high precision and accuracy, with 0.891 for $R^2$, 616 g/plant for the RMSE, and 35.3% for the RE. Conclusions: Little difference was observed in the precision and accuracy of the PLSR model of 0.896 for $R^2$, 576.7 g/plant for the RMSE, and 33.1% for the RE, compared with the MLR model. If the multispectral imaging sensor composed of the significant spectral bands is produced, the crop yield of a wide area can be predicted using a UAV.

Prediction of Water Level at Downstream Site by Using Water Level Data at Upstream Gaging Station (상류 수위관측소 자료를 활용한 하류 지점 수위 예측)

  • Hong, Won Pyo;Song, Chang Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.28-33
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the overseas construction market has been actively promoted for about 10 years, and overseas dam construction has been continuously performed. For the economic and safe construction of the dam, it is important to prepare the main dam construction plan considering the design frequency of the diversion tunnel and the cofferdam. In this respect, the prediction of river level during the rainy season is significant. Since most of the overseas dam construction sites are located in areas with poor infrastructure, the most efficient and economic method to predict the water level in dam construction is to use the upstream water level. In this study, a linear regression model, which is one of the simplest statistical methods, was proposed and examined to predict the downstream level from the upstream level. The Pyeongchang River basin, which has the characteristics of the upper stream (mountain stream), was selected as the target site and the observed water level in Pyeongchang and Panwoon gaging station were used. A regression equation was developed using the water level data set from August 22th to 27th, 2017, and its applicability was tested using the water level data set from August 28th to September 1st, 2018. The dependent variable was selected as the "level difference between two stations," and the independent variable was selected as "the level of water level in Pyeongchang station two hours ago" and the "water level change rate in Pyeongchang station (m/hr)". In addition, the accuracy of the developed equation was checked by using the regression statistics of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Adjusted Coefficient of Determination (ACD), and Nach Sutcliffe efficiency Coefficient (NSEC). As a result, the statistical value of the linear regression model was very high, so the downstream water level prediction using the upstream water level was examined in a highly reliable way. In addition, the results of the application of the water level change rate (m/hr) to the regression equation show that although the increase of the statistical value is not large, it is effective to reduce the water level error in the rapid level rise section. Accordingly, this is a significant advantage in estimating the evacuation water level during main dam construction to secure safety in construction site.

The Effect of Equatorial Spread F on Relative Orbit Determination of GRACE Using Differenced GPS Observations (DGPS기반 GRACE의 상대궤도결정과 Equatorial Spread F의 영향)

  • Roh, Kyoung-Min;Luehr, Hermann;Park, Sang-Young;Cho, Jung-Ho
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.499-510
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, relative orbit of Low Earth Orbit satellites is determined using only GPS measurements and the effects of Equatorial Spread-F (ESF), that is one of biggest ionospheric irregularities, are investigated. First, relative orbit determiation process is constructed based on doubly differenced GPS observations. In order to see orbit determination performance, relative orbit of two GRACE satellites is estimated for one month in 2004 when no ESF is observed. The root mean square of the achieved baselines compared with that from K-Band Ranger sensor is about 2~3 mm and average of 95% of ambiguities are resolved. Based on this performance, the relative orbit is estimated for two weeks of two difference years, 2003 when there are lots of ESF occurred, and 2004 when only few ESF occurred. For 2003, the averaged baseline error over two weeks is about 15 mm. That is about 4 times larger than the case of 2004 (3.6 mm). Ionospheric status achieved from K-Band Ranging sensor also shows that more Equatorial Spread-F occurred at 2003 than 2004. Investigation on raw observations and screening process revealed that the ionospheric irregualarities caused by Equatorial Spread-F gave significant effects on GPS signal like signal loss or enhancement ionospheric error, From this study, relative orbit determination using GPS observations should consider the effect of Equatorial Spread-F and adjust orbit determination strategy, especially at the time of solar maximum.

A Study on the stock price prediction and influence factors through NARX neural network optimization (NARX 신경망 최적화를 통한 주가 예측 및 영향 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Cheon, Min Jong;Lee, Ook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.572-578
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    • 2020
  • The stock market is affected by unexpected factors, such as politics, society, and natural disasters, as well as by corporate performance and economic conditions. In recent days, artificial intelligence has become popular, and many researchers have tried to conduct experiments with that. Our study proposes an experiment using not only stock-related data but also other various economic data. We acquired a year's worth of data on stock prices, the percentage of foreigners, interest rates, and exchange rates, and combined them in various ways. Thus, our input data became diversified, and we put the combined input data into a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) model. With the input data in the NARX model, we analyze and compare them to the original data. As a result, the model exhibits a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.08 as being the most accurate when we set 10 neurons and two delays with a combination of stock prices and exchange rates from the U.S., China, Europe, and Japan. This study is meaningful in that the exchange rate has the greatest influence on stock prices, lowering the error from RMSE 0.589 when only closing data are used.

Effect of Kinetic Degrees of Freedom of the Fingers on the Task Performance during Force Production and Release: Archery Shooting-like Action

  • Kim, Kitae;Xu, Dayuan;Park, Jaebum
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.117-124
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    • 2017
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of changes in degrees of freedom of the fingers (i.e., the number of the fingers involved in tasks) on the task performance during force production and releasing task. Method: Eight right-handed young men (age: $29.63{\pm}3.02yr$, height: $1.73{\pm}0.04m$, weight: $70.25{\pm}9.05kg$) participated in this study. The subjects were required to press the transducers with three combinations of fingers, including the index-middle (IM), index-middle-ring (IMR), and index-middle-ring-little (IMRL). During the trials, they were instructed to maintain a steady-state level of both normal and tangential forces within the first 5 sec. After the first 5 sec, the subjects were instructed to release the fingers on the transducers as quickly as possible at a self-selected manner within the next 5 sec, resulting in zero force at the end. Customized MATLAB codes (MathWorks Inc., Natick, MA, USA) were written for data analysis. The following variables were quantified: 1) finger force sharing pattern, 2) root mean square error (RMSE) of force to the target force in three axes at the aiming phase, 3) the time duration of the release phase (release time), and 4) the accuracy and precision indexes of the virtual firing position. Results: The RMSE was decreased with the number of fingers increased in both normal and tangential forces at the steady-state phase. The precision index was smaller (more precise) in the IMR condition than in the IM condition, while no significant difference in the accuracy index was observed between the conditions. In addition, no significant difference in release time was found between the conditions. Conclusion: The study provides evidence that the increased number of fingers resulted in better error compensation at the aiming phase and performed a more constant shooting (i.e., smaller precision index). However, the increased number of fingers did not affect the release time, which may influence the consistency of terminal performance. Thus, the number of fingers led to positive results for the current task.

Path Loss Model with Multiple-Antenna (다중 안테나를 고려한 경로 손실 모델)

  • Lee, Jun-Hyun;Lee, Dong-Hyung;Keum, Hong-Sik;Ryu, Heung-Gyoon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.747-756
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we propose a path loss model with the multiple antennas using diversity effect. Currently wireless communication systems use the multiple antennas in order to improve the channel capacity or diversity gain. However, until recently, many researches on path loss model only consider geographical environment between the transmitter and the receiver. There is no study about path loss model considering diversity effect. Nowaday wireless communication use the multiple antennas and we in common find examples using diversity scheme that is method in order to enhance a channel capacity. Moreover we anticipate that it work harder in future researches. But in this communication system, path loss model isn't established that predict strength of received signal. So, in order to predict strength of received signal, we take changing SNR by diversity gain. When exceeding the number of antennas of receiver are 7 in proposed model, diversity effect is saturated. Therefore we consider the number of antenna of receiver until 10. We find RMSE between proposed model and value of calculation is 1. We calculate the diversity gain by conventional BER curve. Proposed model can predict loss of received signal in system using multiple antennas.

Accuracy Improvement of Urban Runoff Model Linked with Optimal Simulation (최적모의기법과 연계한 도시유출모형의 정확도 개선)

  • Ha, Chang-Young;Kim, Byunghyun;Son, Ah-Long;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.215-226
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to improve the accuracy of the urban runoff and drainage network analysis by using the observed water level in the drainage network. To do this, sensitivity analysis for major parameters of SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) was performed and parameters were calibrated. The sensitivity of the parameters was the order of the roughness of the conduit, the roughness of the impervious area, the width of the watershed, and the roughness of the pervious area. Six types of scenarios were set up according to the number and types of parameter considering four parameters with high sensitivity. These scenarios were applied to the Seocho-3/4/5, Yeoksam, and Nonhyun drainage basins, where the serious flood damage occurred due to the heavy rain on 21 July, 2013. Parameter optimization analysis based on PEST (Parameter ESTimation) model for each scenario was performed by comparing observed water level in the conduits. By analyzing the accuracy of each scenario, more improved simulation results could be obtained, that is, the maximum RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) could be reduced by 2.41cm and the maximum peak error by 13.7%. The results of this study will be helpful to analyze volume of the manhole surcharge and forecast the inundation area more accurately.

Line-of-Sight (LOS) Vector Adjustment Model for Restitution of SPOT 4 Imagery (SPOT 4 영상의 기하보정을 위한 시선 벡터 조정 모델)

  • Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.247-254
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, a new approach has been studied correcting the geometric distortion of SPOT 4 imagery. Two new equations were induced by the relationship between satellite and the Earth in the space. line-of-sight (LOS) vector adjustment model for SPOT 4 imagery was implemented in this study. This model is to adjust LOS vector under the assumption that the orbital information of satellite provided by receiving station is uncertain and this uncertainty makes a constant error over the image. This model is verified using SPOT 4 satellite image with high look angle and thirty five ground points, which include 10 GCPs(Ground Control Points) and 25 check points, measured by the GPS. In total thirty five points, the geometry of satellite image calculated by given satellite information(such as satellite position, velocity, attitude and look angles, etc) from SPOT 4 satellite image was distorted with a constant error. Through out the study, it was confirmed that the LOS vector adjustment model was able to be applied to SPOT4 satellite image. Using this model, RMSEs (Root Mean Square Errors) of twenty five check points taken by increasing the number of GCPs from two to ten were less than one pixel. As a result, LOS vector adjustment model could efficiently correct the geometry of SPOT4 images with only two GCPs. This method also is expected to get good results for the different satellite images that are similar to the geometry of SPOT images.