• Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
• /
• v.52 no.3
• /
• pp.447-467
• /
• 2015

In this paper, we consider a multi-risk model based on the policy entrance process with n independent policies. For each policy, the entrance process of the customer is a non-homogeneous Poisson process, and the claim process is a renewal process. The loss process of the single-risk model is a random sum of stochastic processes, and the actual individual claim sizes are described as extended upper negatively dependent (EUND) structure with heavy tails. We derive precise large deviations for the loss process of the multi-risk model after giving the precise large deviations of the single-risk model. Our results extend and improve the existing results in significant ways.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
• /
• 2009.05a
• /
• pp.1364-1369
• /
• 2009

The building construction projects include a variety of risk factors due to uncertainties. To succeed in the projects, it is important how risks are managed. Risk management is composed of identification, analysis and response. Especially, the risk analysis is important to objectively calculate significance of risk factors. This paper evaluates a method to find priorities of risks using the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). The method has some defects; (1) the consistency becomes weak as the number of pair-wise compared risks is large, and (2) the input and output procedures are complex when risks are added to or removed from a risk database. Thus the paper adopt the PROMETHEE(Preference Ranking Organization METHod Enrichment Evaluations) analysis process which is able to overcome the limitation of the AHP restricted to 9 risk factors. The PROMETHEE method makes the procedure of risk analysis simple, when the risk factors pull out and put in the risk database. The purpose of this study is to prove the possibility of the PROMETHEE analysis process by being compared with AHP.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
• /
• v.14 no.5
• /
• pp.83-89
• /
• 2009

Management of risks is critical issue in the project management and it is important to ensure that risk management is done in a sensible way. Risk analysis is an activity geared towards risk mitigation in risk management technique. Many techniques to manage, analyze and reduce risks have been done previously but only few have addressed the design analysis to reduce risk and none have attempted to analyze architecture to manage risks. In this paper we try to find a solution through various analyzing various software architectural design concepts. We follow Pressman's method of analyzing architecture design, and then alter it to identify risks which are used in risk analysis process further in risk management process. The risks assessed are analyzed later in the risk management cycle.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.3 no.1 s.9
• /
• pp.107-114
• /
• 2002

Recently, a few major construction companies in Korea have a growing interests to the risk management system, and they are trying to apply it to their construction projects. However, the existing methodologies to be applied to the foreign public projects are not proper to the construction environments due to its adaptabilities, that has one time process and heavily depends on personal judgement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a risk response process in consideration of the residual risks, which would be more adaptable and practical in the construction environment, overcoming the current obstacles to be mentioned above. This process has systematic repeat process until the residual risks go down to the risk thresholds based on the efficiency of specific response strategy.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.29 no.4
• /
• pp.184-190
• /
• 2014

Decommissioning process of nuclear facilities consist of a sequence of problem solving activities, because there may exist not only working environments contaminated by radiological exposure but also industrial hazards such as fire, explosions, toxic materials, and electrical and physical hazards. Therefore, not a few countries in the world have been trying to develop appropriate counter techniques in order to guarantee safety and efficiency of the process. In spite of that, there still exists neither domestic nor international standard. Unfortunately, however, there are few workers who experienced decommissioning operations a lot in the past. As a solution, it is quite necessary to utilize experts' opinions for risk assessment in decommissioning process. As for an individual hazard factor, risk assessment techniques are getting known to industrial workers with advance of safety technology, but the way how to integrate those results is not yet. This paper aimed to find out an appropriate technique to integrate individual risk assessment results from the viewpoint of experts. Thus, on one hand the whole risk assessment activity for decommissioning operations was modeled as a sequence of individual risk assessment steps which can be classified into two activities, decontamination and dismantling, and on the other, a risk assessment structure was introduced. The whole model was inferred with Fuzzy theory and techniques, and a numerical example was appended for comprehension.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.30 no.5
• /
• pp.413-422
• /
• 2022

TBM is widely used in the construction of various underground projects in the current world, and has the unique advantages that cannot be compared with traditional excavation methods. However, due to the high cost of TBM, the damage is even greater when geological disasters such as collapse occur during excavation. At present, there is still a shortage of research on various types of risk prediction of TBM tunnel, and accurate and reliable risk prediction model is an important theoretical basis for timely risk avoidance during construction. In this paper, a prediction model is proposed to evaluate the risk level of tunnel collapse by establishing a reasonable risk index system, using analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight, and using the normal cloud model theory. At the same time, the traditional analytic hierarchy process is improved and optimized to ensure the objectivity of the weight values of the indicators in the prediction process, and the qualitative indicators are quantified so that they can directly participate in the process of risk prediction calculation. Through the practical engineering application, the feasibility and accuracy of the method are verified, and further optimization can be analyzed and discussed.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.67-82
• /
• 2008

Risk that breed large size disaster is happening variously for cause at social. natural a management. Incidence and damage scale are trend that increase rapidly than past. In these circumstance, to keep operational continuity of organization, area, society, risk management action that establish systematic counter measure estimating and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue and the best countermeasure. Risk management action does by main purpose establish optimum disaster reduction countermeasure. To deduce various countermeasure, process that estimate and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue. Therefore, this paper studies process design that can presume risk occurrence frequency and damage scale through distribution of probability.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.33 no.2
• /
• pp.112-123
• /
• 2018

In this paper, we focused on the safety of workers in a remanufacturing process where a risk analysis is not carried out and suggested a criteria for evaluating injury risk. We analyzed a disassembly and a reassembly, which are important for the remanufacturing process. The disassembly includes the disassembly of product and the disassembly process of part and the reassembly includes only reassembly of part. First of all, we analyzed the remanufacturing process and a type of injury. Then, we reviewed the standards and determined the criteria for a severity and an occurrence. We set a bigger weight for the severity to allow the greater impact. And the injury risk score was defined as a sum of the weighted severity and the weighted occurrence. We conducted a qualitative analysis of the experience of field workers based on the criteria we set up. Questionnaires for the evaluation were formulated through interviews with experts.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.31 no.4
• /
• pp.49-58
• /
• 2008

This paper proposes a methodology to measure the risk level in real-time for Business Activity Monitoring (BAM). A decision-tree methodology was employed to analyze the effect of process attributes on the result of the process execution. In the course of process execution, the level of risk is monitored in real-time, and an early warning can be issued depending on the change of the risk level. An algorithm for estimating the risk of ongoing processes in real-time was formulated. Comparison experiments were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The proposed method detects the risks of business processes more precisely and even earlier than existing approaches.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
• /
• v.2 no.2
• /
• pp.95-100
• /
• 2006

While conventional business administration-based information technology management methods are applied to the risk analysis of information systems, no security risk analysis techniques have been used in relation to information protection. In particular, given the rapid diffusion of information systems and the demand for information protection, it is vital to develop security risk analysis techniques. Therefore, this paper will suggest an ideal risk analysis process for information systems. To prove the usefulness of this security risk analysis process, this paper will show the results of managed, physical and technical security risk analysis that are derived from investigating and analyzing the conventional information protection items of an information system.