• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.68 no.6
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• pp.747-760
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• 2018

In the present study, a methodology for developing fragilities of arch concrete dams to assess their performance against seismic hazards is introduced. Firstly, the probability risk and fragility curves are presented, followed by implementation and representation of the way this method is used. Amirkabir arch concrete dam was subjected to non-linear dynamic analyses. A modified three dimensional rotating smeared crack model was used to take the nonlinear behavior of mass concrete into account. The proposed model considers major characteristics of mass concrete. These characteristics are pre-softening behavior, softening initiation criteria, fracture energy conservation, suitable damping mechanism and strain rate effect. In the present analysis, complete fluid-structure interaction is included to account for appropriate fluid compressibility and absorptive reservoir boundary conditions. In this study, the Amirkabir arch concrete dam is subjected to a set of 8 three-component earthquakes each scaled to 10 increasing intensity levels. Using proposed nonlinear smeared crack model, nonlinear analysis is performed where the structure is subjected to a large set of scaled and un-scaled ground motions and the maximum responses are extracted for each one and plotted. Based on the results, fragility curves were plotted according to various and possible damages indexes. Discrete damage probabilities were calculated using statistical methods for each considered performance level and incremental nonlinear analysis. Then, fragility curves were constructed based on the lognormal distribution assumption. Two damage indexes were introduced and compared to one another. The results indicate that the dam has a proper stability under earthquake conditions at MCE level. Moreover, displacement damages index is more conservative and impractical in the fragility analysis than tensional damage index.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.15-22
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• 2019

Refrigerator and heating cabinet fires due to the dielectric breakdown of electronic components caused by leaked beverages are being reported frequently. On the other hand, there has been little interest in measuring the electrical characteristics of beverages and studying the cause of fires. In this paper, the electrical conductivity and total dissolved solids (TDS) for 32 different beverages commonly sold in South Korea were measured to study the relationship between the electrical conductivity and dielectric breakdown. Out of these 32 beverages, based on the measurements, some characteristic beverages were selected and further dielectric breakdown tests were conducted. The results showed that the probability of a fire is higher for beverages with high electrical conductivity. Interestingly, beverages with low electrical conductivity had a high likelihood of fire depending on the type of beverage. Moreover, some conditions that cause spark ignition, which lead to fires in electronic components, were identified.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.435-446
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• 2019

Because offshore structures are affected by various environmental loads, the risk of damage is high. As a result of ever-changing ocean environmental loads, damage to offshore structures is expected to differ from year to year. However, in previous studies, it was assumed that a relatively short period of load acts repeatedly during the design life of a structure. In this study, the residual life of an offshore wind turbine support structure was evaluated in consideration of the timing uncertainty of the ocean environmental load. Sampling points for the wind velocity, wave height, and wave period were generated using a central composites design, and a transfer function was constructed from the numerical analysis results. A simulation was performed using the joint probability model of ocean environmental loads. The stress time history was calculated by entering the load samples generated by the simulation into the transfer function. The damage to the structure was calculated using the rain-flow counting method, Goodman equation, Miner's rule, and S-N curve. The results confirmed that the wind speed generated at a specific time could not represent the wind speed that could occur during the design life of the structure.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.259-268
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• 2019

Even if only two ships are encountered, a collision may occur due to the mistaken judgment of the positional relationship. In other words, if an officer does not know a target ship's intention, there is always a risk of collision. In this paper, the experiments are conducted to investigate how the intention affects the action of collision avoidance in cooperative and non-cooperative situations. In non-cooperative situation, each ship chooses a course that minimizes costs based on the current situation. That is, it always performs a selfish selection. In a cooperative situation, the information is exchanged with a target ship and a course is selected based on this information. Each ship uses the Distributed Stochastic Search Algorithm so that a next-intended course can be selected by a certain probability and determines the course. In the experimental method, four virtual ships are set up to analyze the action of collision avoidance. Then, using the actual AIS data of eight ships in the strait of Dover, I compared and analyzed the action of collision avoidance in cooperative and non-cooperative situations. As a result of the experiment, the ships showed smooth trajectories in the cooperative situation, but the ship in the non-cooperative situation made frequent big changes to avoid a collision. In the case of the experiment using four ships, there was no collision in the cooperative situation regardless of the size of the safety domain, but a collision occurred between the ships when the size of the safety domain increased in cases of non-cooperation. In the case of experiments using eight ships, it was found that there are optimal parameters for collision avoidance. Also, it was possible to grasp the variation of the sailing distance and the costs according to the combination of the parameters, and it was confirmed that the setting of the parameters can have a great influence on collision avoidance among ships.

• Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.119-131
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• 2017

Global warming under the influence of climate change and its direct impact on glacial and sea level are known issue. However, there is a lack of research on an indirect impact of climate change such as coastal structure design which is mainly based on a frequency analysis of water level under the stationary assumption, meaning that maximum sea level will not vary significantly over time. In general, stationary assumption does not hold and may not be valid under a changing climate. Therefore, this study aims to develop a novel approach to explore possible distributional changes in annual maximum sea levels (AMSLs) and provide the estimate of design water level for coastal structures using a multiple non-crossing quantile regression based nonstationary frequency analysis within a Bayesian framework. In this study, 20 tide gauge stations, where more than 30 years of hourly records are available, are considered. First, the possible distributional changes in the AMSLs are explored, focusing on the change in the scale and location parameter of the probability distributions. The most of the AMSLs are found to be upward-convergent/divergent pattern in the distribution, and the significance test on distributional changes is then performed. In this study, we confirm that a stationary assumption under the current climate characteristic may lead to underestimation of the design sea level, which results in increase in the failure risk in coastal structures. A detailed discussion on the role of the distribution changes for design water level is provided.

• Journal of Acupuncture Research
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.110-121
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• 2021

The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review and network meta-analysis to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of various types of acupuncture for menopausal hot flashes (HF). Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were retrieved from 8 electronic databases, and the risk of bias was evaluated for the included studies. Pairwise meta-analysis and network meta-analysis were performed using Review Manager and R software for indirect comparison and ranking, respectively. In total, 23 RCTs (2,302 patients) were eligible for systematic review, of which 10 were included in network meta-analysis. Network meta-analysis showed manual acupuncture (MA) had the highest probability of reducing HF frequency and severity, followed by sham acupuncture (SA), electroacupuncture, usual care, or no treatment; furthermore, warm acupuncture significantly improved menopause-specific quality of life compared with MA or electroacupuncture. Compared with hormone replacement therapy, acupuncture had less efficacy in reducing HF frequency but enhanced menopause-specific quality of life. There was no significant difference between MA and SA in mitigating HF. The existing evidence showed that MA could be used for alleviating menopausal HF. However, it is recommended that more high-quality RCTs should be performed.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.209-217
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• 2021

Although forest fires are more often triggered by artificial causes than by natural causes, the combustion conditions that spread forest fire damage over a large area are affected by natural phenomena. Therefore, using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), which can analyze the dependent and causal relationships between various factors, this study evaluated the causal relationships and relative influences between forest fire, weather, and drought, taking Gangwon Province as our sample region. The results indicated that the impact of drought on forest fires was 27 % and that of the weather was 38 %. In addition, forest fires in spring accounted for about 60 % of total forest fires. This indicatesthat along with meteorological factors, the autumn and winter droughts in the previous year affected forest fires. In assessing the risk of forest fires, if severe meteorological droughts occur in autumn and winter, the probability of forest fires may increase in the spring of the following year.

• Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.139-153
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• 2021

Background: In anesthetic techniques, touching bones can cause needle bending. Theoretically, a needle should support such deflection without fracturing. However, it is possible that a needle may fracture depending on the quality and type of needle used. This study evaluated the physical, chemical, and micromorphological characteristics of long and short dental anesthetic needles, as well as the mechanical properties of flexural load and bending resistance when needles are subjected to different bending angles. Methods: Long and short needles (30G, Jets, Misawa, Selekto, Terumo, Unoject and 27G, Dencojet, Injex, Jets, Misawa, Procare, Setoject XL, Terumo) were evaluated. Scanning electron microscopy was used to evaluate the needle bevels and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy was used for the chemical analysis of needle compositions. Flexural loading and bending strength assessments were performed using a universal testing machine by bending the needles (n = 5) to angles of 30°, 60°, or 90°, or until fracture occurred. Results: The Injex 27G, Jets 27G, and Septoject XL 27G needles were all less than 30 mm in length. There were small percentage variations in the chemical compositions of the needles. Superior smoothness was observed for the Unoject 30G needle, which exhibited the highest fracture resistance at 60°. The Jets 30G needle exhibited greater resistance to fractures at 90°. The Procare 27G needle exhibited the highest load resistance to bending, followed by the Septoject XL 27G needle, and both needles were tied for the lowest fracture resistance. No needle fractured when bent to 30° or at less than three bends to 60° or 90°. Conclusions: Greater needle resistance to bending increases the probability of early fracturing. Thinner and shorter needles are more resistant than longer and thicker needles. Performing a single bend does not result in any significant risk of fracture or obliterate the lumen, allowing for the continued passage of anesthetic liquid.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.573-585
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• 2021

The banking sector is one of the most important sectors in Pakistan's struggling economy. Recent studies have recommended that suitable methods can be applied to predict bankruptcy. In this context, this work analyzes Pakistan's banking sector's financial status through the five-factor Altman Z-score model, which determines the probability of bankruptcy for an organization. Banking data has been collected through the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in the period 2013-2017. The Z-score assessment criteria is defined as: Z> 2.99 - "safe" zone; Z> 1.8 Z>2.98- "grey" zone; and Z <1.8 - "distress" zone. Results show good predictions for the local banking industry, while most foreign Pakistani banks were found bankrupt with the Z-score below 1.1. One of the financial risks investors face when investing in any company is the risk of bankruptcy. One of the most used models for predicting financial distress for any company is Altman's Z-score model. On the other hand, the Z-score analysis suggests that all banking establishments are not bankrupt because they have sufficient ability to control bankruptcy. At the same time, foreign banks failed financially and would not be able to be sustained in the future because they do not have the ability to pay the short-term and long-term debt.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.63 no.2
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• pp.75-84
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• 2021

As the weather changes become frequent, weather disasters are increasing, causing more damage to plastic greenhouses. Among the damage caused by various disasters, damage by snow to the greenhouse takes a relatively long time, so if an alarm system is properly prepared, the damage can be reduced. Existing greenhouse design standards and snow warning systems are based on snow depth. However, even in the same depth, the load on the greenhouse varies depending on meteorological characteristics and snow density. Therefore, this study aims to secure the structural safety of greenhouses by developing sensors that can directly measure snow loads, and analysing the warning criteria for load using a stochastic model. Markov chain was applied to estimate the failure probability of various types of greenhouses in various regions, which let users actively cope with heavy snowfall by selecting an appropriate time to respond. Although it was hard to predict the precise snow depth or amounts, it could successfully assess the risk of structures by directly detecting the snow load using the developed sensor.