• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제30권5호
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• pp.413-422
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• 2022

TBM is widely used in the construction of various underground projects in the current world, and has the unique advantages that cannot be compared with traditional excavation methods. However, due to the high cost of TBM, the damage is even greater when geological disasters such as collapse occur during excavation. At present, there is still a shortage of research on various types of risk prediction of TBM tunnel, and accurate and reliable risk prediction model is an important theoretical basis for timely risk avoidance during construction. In this paper, a prediction model is proposed to evaluate the risk level of tunnel collapse by establishing a reasonable risk index system, using analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight, and using the normal cloud model theory. At the same time, the traditional analytic hierarchy process is improved and optimized to ensure the objectivity of the weight values of the indicators in the prediction process, and the qualitative indicators are quantified so that they can directly participate in the process of risk prediction calculation. Through the practical engineering application, the feasibility and accuracy of the method are verified, and further optimization can be analyzed and discussed.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.373-383
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• 2006

The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.497-501
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• 2013

An important decision-making element for the success of housing redevelopment projects is a prediction of the profitability of redevelopment. Risk factors influencing profitability were deduced through a review of the literature about profitability and a risk analysis developed by a survey of maintenance projects. In addition, a profitability prediction depending on the analysis of risk factors is necessary to judge the business feasibility of a project in the planning stages. A profitability prediction model of management and disposal method, which is calculated by proportional rate and which helps estimate contributions to profitability, is proposed to prevent difficulties in business development. The proposed model has the potential to prevent interruptions, reduce the length of projects, generate cost savings, and enable rational decision-making during the project period by allowing a judgment of profitability at the planning stage.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.130-135
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• 2013

Until now, passenger airbag design is based on the referred car design and many repetitive crash tests have been done to meet the crash performance. In this paper, it was suggested a new design process of passenger airbag. First, key performance factors were determined by analyzing the injury risk effectiveness of each performance factor. And it was made a relationship between injury risk and performance factor by using the response surface model. By using this one, it can be predicted the injury risk of head and neck. Predicted injury risk of optimal design was obtained through this injury risk prediction model and it was verified by FE analysis result within 18% error of head and 9% error of neck. It was shown that a target crash performance can be met by controlling the key performance factors only.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.73-82
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• 2020

With the coal mining depth increasing, both stress and gas pressure rapidly enhance, causing coal and gas outburst risk to become more complex and severe. The conventional method for prediction of coal and gas outburst adopts one prediction index and corresponding critical value to forecast and cannot reflect all the factors impacting coal and gas outburst, thus it is characteristic of false and missing forecasts and poor accuracy. For the reason, based on analyses of both the prediction indicators and the factors impacting coal and gas outburst at the test site, this work carefully selected 6 prediction indicators such as the index of gas desorption from drill cuttings Δh₂, the amount of drill cuttings S, gas content W, the gas initial diffusion velocity index ΔP, the intensity of electromagnetic radiation E and its number of pulse N, constructed the Bayes discriminant analysis (BDA) index system, studied the BDA-based multi-index comprehensive model for forecast of coal and gas outburst risk, and used the established discriminant model to conduct coal and gas outburst prediction. Results showed that the BDA - based multi-index comprehensive model for prediction of coal and gas outburst has an 100% of prediction accuracy, without wrong and omitted predictions, can also accurately forecast the outburst risk even for the low indicators outburst. The prediction method set up by this study has a broad application prospect in the prediction of coal and gas outburst risk.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.88-98
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• 2021

Background: This study aimed to develop a new risk prediction model for operative mortality in a Korean cohort undergoing heart valve surgery using the Korea Heart Valve Surgery Registry (KHVSR) database. Methods: We analyzed data from 4,742 patients registered in the KHVSR who underwent heart valve surgery at 9 institutions between 2017 and 2018. A risk prediction model was developed for operative mortality, defined as death within 30 days after surgery or during the same hospitalization. A statistical model was generated with a scoring system by multiple logistic regression analyses. The performance of the model was evaluated by its discrimination and calibration abilities. Results: Operative mortality occurred in 142 patients. The final regression models identified 13 risk variables. The risk prediction model showed good discrimination, with a c-statistic of 0.805 and calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.630. The risk scores ranged from -1 to 15, and were associated with an increase in predicted mortality. The predicted mortality across the risk scores ranged from 0.3% to 80.6%. Conclusion: This risk prediction model using a scoring system specific to heart valve surgery was developed from the KHVSR database. The risk prediction model showed that operative mortality could be predicted well in a Korean cohort.

• The Korean Journal of Pain
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.153-165
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• 2020

Background: Well-validated risk prediction models help to identify individuals at high risk of diseases and suggest preventive measures. A recent systematic review reported lack of validated prediction models for low back pain (LBP). We aimed to develop prediction models to estimate the 8-year risk of developing LBP and its recurrence. Methods: A population based prospective cohort study using data from 435,968 participants in the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort enrolled from 2002 to 2010. We used Cox proportional hazards models. Results: During median follow-up period of 8.4 years, there were 143,396 (32.9%) first onset LBP cases. The prediction model of first onset consisted of age, sex, income grade, alcohol consumption, physical exercise, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, blood pressure, and medical history of diseases. The model of 5-year recurrence risk was comprised of age, sex, income grade, BMI, length of prescription, and medical history of diseases. The Harrell's C-statistic was 0.812 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.804-0.820) and 0.916 (95% CI, 0.907-0.924) in validation cohorts of LBP onset and recurrence models, respectively. Age, disc degeneration, and sex conferred the highest risk points for onset, whereas age, spondylolisthesis, and disc degeneration conferred the highest risk for recurrence. Conclusions: LBP risk prediction models and simplified risk scores have been developed and validated using data from general medical practice. This study also offers an opportunity for external validation and updating of the models by incorporating other risk predictors in other settings, especially in this era of precision medicine.

• Advances in Computational Design
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.121-131
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• 2017

Collapse was one of the typical common geological hazards during the construction of tunnels. The risk assessment of collapse was an effective way to ensure the safety of tunnels. We established a prediction model of collapse based on Bayesian Network. 76 large or medium collapses in China were analyzed. The variable set and range of the model were determined according to the statistics. A collapse prediction software was developed and its veracity was also evaluated. At last the software was used to predict tunnel collapses. It effectively evaded the disaster. Establishing the platform can be subsequent perfect. The platform can also be applied to the risk assessment of other tunnel engineering.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2022년도 가을 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.99-100
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• 2022

As the danger of exposure to the asbestos has been revealed, the importance of demolition asbestos in existing buildings has been raised. Extensive body of study has been conducted to evaluate the risk of demolition asbestos, but there were confined types of variables caused by not reflecting categorical information and limitations in collecting quantitative information. Thus, this study aims to derive a model that predicts the risk in workplace of demolition asbestos by collecting categorical and continuous variables. For this purpose, categorical and continuous variables were collected from asbestos demolition reports, and the risk assessment score was set as the dependent variable. In this study, the influence of each variable was identified using logistic regression, and the risk prediction model methodologies were compared through decision tree regression and artificial neural network. As a result, a conditional risk prediction model was derived to evaluate the risk of demolition asbestos, and this model is expected to be used to ensure the safety of asbestos demolition workers.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.136-144
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• 2013

An extensive real world in-depth crash accident data is needed to make a precise occupant injury risk prediction at crash accidents which might be a critical information from the scene of the accident in ACNS(Automatic Crash Notification System). However it is rather unfortunate that there is no such a domestic database unlike other leading countries. Therefore we propose a numerical method, i.e., crash simulation using a sled model to make a virtual database that can substitute car crash database in real world. The proposing crash injury risk prediction is validated against a limited domestic crash accident data.