• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment method

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Monte-Carlo 모의실험을 통한 부분 인구집단별 이산화질소와 오존의 노출 및 위해성 평가 (Exposure and Risk Assessment of Nitrogen Dioxide and Ozone for Sub-population Groups using Monte-Carlo Simulations)

  • 박진현;류현수;양소영;박윤경;허정;김은채;최영태;조만수;양원호
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제45권2호
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    • pp.113-125
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: Although the risk assessments for nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$) and ozone ($O_3$) have been extensively studied, most of the existing risk assessments were limited mainly to indoor environments such as workplaces, schools, and multi-use facilities. Therefore, integrated risk assessment is needed to consider exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoors. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk among sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk of Koreans. Methods: In this study, we estimated time-weighted average exposure concentrations of $NO_2$ and $O_3$ for preschool children, students, housewives, workers, and seniors using residential time and indoor concentrations (house, school or workplace, other), outdoors, and transport by meta-analysis method. The risk for $NO_2$ and $O_3$ were assessed by hazard quotient using reference concentrations 30 and 60 ppb, respectively. The risk assessments were conducted through 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool children, students, housewives, workers, and seniors spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in a house, school, or workplace, respectively. The risk assessment for the lifetime of a housewife and a worker showed that 33.8 and 28.4% of hazard quotients of $NO_2$ exceed 1, respectively, and more than 99% of hazard quotient of $O_3$ were less than 1. Conclusions: The risk of $NO_2$ and $O_3$ by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewives and workers were assessed. The risk for $NO_2$ was higher than for $O_3$ and showed a different risk by sub-population group. Both $NO_2$ and $O_3$ showed a higher risk for housewives than for workers. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment for $NO_2$ and $O_3$.

설계안전성검토를 통한 지하외벽공사의 안전개선 연구 (A Study on safety improvement of Underground wall construction to Design for Safety)

  • 지경환;최병정
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.56-68
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    • 2019
  • 설계안전성검토 제도 도입으로 현장공사수행 시 안전을 고려한 설계를 도입해야하나 실제 현장에서 설계안전성검토를 적용하여 수행하기에는 아직 미흡한 점이 많다. 본 연구에서는 설계안전성검토를 적용하지 않은 현장과 적용을 한 현장을 비교연구하였다. 적용공종은 건축물공사의 뼈대에 해당되는 골조공사 중 지하외벽공사에 대하여 연구하였다. 지하외벽 공사는 대부분 작업 조건이 외부 환경에 노출되어 작업조건이 열악하고 작업단계도 비계공사, 거푸집공사, 철근공사, 콘크리트타설공사 등을 거쳐야 완성되므로 안전사고 위험요소가 매우 높은 공종이다. 이에 각단계별 위험요소를 도출하고 위험성평가를 실시하여 이를 저감하기 위한 대안공법을 선정하였다. 대안으로 선정된 공법의 위험요소를 도출하고 위험성평가를 실시하여 설계안전성검토 미적용현장과 적용현장을 비교하여 위험성평가 가중치를 산출하고 저감효과를 연구하여 설계안전성검토가 필요한 사유를 설명하였다. 또한, 대안으로 수립된 공법을 실제 적용한 사례를 연구하여설계안전성검토 필요성을 제시하였다.

패키지형 수소충전소의 고장형태별 영향 분석 (A Study on the Hazard Factor of Packaged Hydrogen Station by Failure Mode & Effects Analysis)

  • 서두현;이광원;김태훈
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the purpose is to identify the risks of the facilities of packaged hydrogen stations. As a risk identification method, failure mode & effect analysis (FMEA), a qualitative risk assessment, was used to analyze failure mode and effects of component of each facility. The analysis criteria were used to derive the risk priority number (RPN) using the 5-point method according to severity, incidence, and detectability. The study analyzed a total of 141 components of 23 types that can be identified on the design of the packaged hydrogen filling station. As a result, 683 types of failures and their causes and effects were identified. and the RPN was number of a total of 1,485. Of these, 10 failure types with a RPN value of 40 or more were deemed necessary. In addition, a list of failure types with a severity score of 5 was identified and analyzed.

Study of Personal Credit Risk Assessment Based on SVM

  • LI, Xin;XIA, Han
    • 산경연구논집
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    • 제13권10호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Support vector machines (SVMs) ensemble has been proposed to improve classification performance of Credit risk recently. However, currently used fusion strategies do not evaluate the importance degree of the output of individual component SVM classifier when combining the component predictions to the final decision. To deal with this problem, this paper designs a support vector machines (SVMs) ensemble method based on fuzzy integral, which aggregates the outputs of separate component SVMs with importance of each component SVM. Research design, data, and methodology: This paper designs a personal credit risk evaluation index system including 16 indicators and discusses a support vector machines (SVMs) ensemble method based on fuzzy integral for designing a credit risk assessment system to discriminate good creditors from bad ones. This paper randomly selects 1500 sample data of personal loan customers of a commercial bank in China 2015-2020 for simulation experiments. Results: By comparing the experimental result SVMs ensemble with the single SVM, the neural network ensemble, the proposed method outperforms the single SVM, and neural network ensemble in terms of classification accuracy. Conclusions: The results show that the method proposed in this paper has higher classification accuracy than other classification methods, which confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

PROGRAMMATIC AND PROJECT-LEVEL RISKS: ESTABLISHING A RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS FOR MIDDLE EAST PLANT PROJECTS

  • G. Edward Gibson Jr.;John Walewski;SangBum Kim;Clayton Ingam;Hamid Hajian
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.1000-1014
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    • 2009
  • Research sponsored by the Korean Government investigated the establishment of a risk management process by Korean contractors involved with plant projects in the Middle East. This research effort builds upon the work completed by the Construction Industry Institute (CII), called the International Project Risk Assessment (IPRA) tool and method, and also explored how CII's Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) could be incorporated to improve project planning by addressing risks and scope development issues. Specific findings and recommendations were developed including the creation of the Contractor Critical Areas of Concern (CCAC) risk screening tool for Korean contractors pursuing Middle East oil and gas projects.

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김포국제공항 B747-8 수용성에 관한 연구 (A Study on B747-8 Compatibility at Gimpo International Airport)

  • 강성현;박윤철
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2024
  • Gimpo International Airport is only available for alternate airport for code F aircraft and it is difficult to operate larger aircraft capable of transporting more passengers than B747-400. This study has conducted to review the compatibility based on risk assessment to introduce the B747-8 operation procedures, excluding the A380 for practical reasons. Risk factors for main gear deviation when driving on curved sections of the taxiway was identified. The risk was analyzed as "high" level. As a risk reduction measure, the proceduralization of specific taxiing method "judgemental oversteer" was reviewed, and the result of the risk re-evaluation was lowered to a "low" level. As a result, the B747-8 was analyzed to be compatible. Additionally, It is suggested that review of pavement strength, de/anti-icing facilities, and passenger boarding bridge is necessary for actual operations.

화학공정 주변지역에 미치는 위험성(사회적 위험성 및 개인적 위험성) 평가방법에 관한 비교 연구 (A Comparative Study on the Risk(Individual and Societal) Assessment for Surrounding Areas of Chemical Processes)

  • 김윤화;엄성인;고재욱
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 1995
  • Two methods of the numerical method of CPQRA(Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis) and the manual method of IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency) were used to estimate the individual risk and societal risk around the chemical plant. Where, the CPQRA is introduced to verify the theoritical background of the manual of international atomic energy agency. The Gaussian plume model which has a weather stability class D with velocity of 5m/s was applied to calculate dispersion of hazard material. Also, 8-point method was employed to the effects of accidents for wind distribution. Furthermore, historical record, FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) were used to estimate the probability or frequency of accidents. Eventually, the individual risk shows isorisk contour and the societal risk shows F-N curve around hazard facility, especially in chemical plants. Caulculated results, which both individual and societal risk, by using IAEA manual show simillar results to those of calculation by numerical method of CPQRA.

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A rapid modeling method and accuracy criteria for common-cause failures in Risk Monitor PSA model

  • Zhang, Bing;Chen, Shanqi;Lin, Zhixian;Wang, Shaoxuan;Wang, Zhen;Ge, Daochuan;Guo, Dingqing;Lin, Jian;Wang, Fang;Wang, Jin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제53권1호
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2021
  • In the development of a Risk Monitor probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model from the basic PSA model of a nuclear power plant, the modeling of common-cause failure (CCF) is very important. At present, some approximate modeling methods are widely used, but there lacks criterion of modeling accuracy and error analysis. In this paper, aiming at ensuring the accuracy of risk assessment and minimizing the Risk Monitor PSA models size, we present three basic issues of CCF model resulted from the changes of a nuclear power plant configuration, put forward corresponding modeling methods, and derive accuracy criteria of CCF modeling based on minimum cut sets and risk indicators according to the requirements of risk monitoring. Finally, a nuclear power plant Risk Monitor PSA model is taken as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling method and accuracy criteria, and the application scope of the idea of this paper is also discussed.

건설기계작업 사망사고 예방을 위한 위험관리 (Risk Management for Preventing Workers' Deaths in Construction Machinery Work)

  • 양승수;백신원
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제35권3호
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    • pp.16-23
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    • 2020
  • The use of construction machinery has been increasing every year due to the large scale, high-rise and lack of workers in construction work. On the other hand, deaths are on the rise every year due to inadequate risk management for construction machinery work. In addition, the number of deaths caused by the lack of signals or insufficient signals during construction machinery work is increasing rapidly, and it is deemed necessary to analyze the actual conditions and take countermeasures. Therefore this study has developed the Strength Risk Index (SRI) based on the Frequency Risk Index (FRI) and the 5W1H by analyzing in-depth deaths caused by construction machinery over the past five years. The risk index (RI) was assessed using the frequency and strength risk index derived to determine whether it is acceptable (acceptable risk < 0.25 ≦ unacceptable risk) and the risk assessment method for reducing risk was proposed by applying 3E (Engineering, Education, Enforcement) measures for each level of risk for unacceptable risk. It also proposed measures to improve the system, such as requirements for signal numbers, mandatory placement standards, and mandatory installation of side and rear monitoring cameras, as measures for accidents caused by failure to deploy signals or insufficient signals, which account for the highest proportion of deaths among construction machinery operators and workers.

리스크 평가 및 분석 기법을 활용한 알코올 섭취에 따른 수중활동 시 리스크 분석 (Risk Analysis of Alcohol Consumption During Underwater Activity Using the Risk Assessment and Analysis Method)

  • 서상우;강신범;강신영
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.159-168
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구는 수중활동에서 나타나는 인체의 생리적 변화와 알코올 섭취로 인한 생리적 변화를 살펴보고 알코올 섭취가 스쿠버다이버에게 미치는 영향을 규명하는데 그 목적이 있다. 미국 내부통제연구소위원회의 내부통제 프레임워크를 기초로 본 연구에 적합하도록 새롭게 정립한 '리스크 평가 및 분석(RAA, risk assessment and analysis)' 기법을 활용하여 알코올 섭취 전과 후의 리스크 분석을 실시하였다. RAA기법은 리스크 간 상관관계를 분석하는 1단계, 리스크를 정량화하고 리스크 데이터베이스를 구축하는 2단계, 그리고 이를 도식화하여 리스크맵을 분석하는 3단계로 이루어져 있다. RAA기법을 통해 알코올 섭취로 인한 수중활동의 리스크수준이 전반적으로 증가하여 고위험군의 비율이 높아진 것을 확인하였고 리스크수준의 정량화와 고위험군 분류를 통해 리스크관리 측면에서 우선통제대상을 지정할 수 있었다. 본 연구 결과는 알코올 섭취 후 행해지는 스쿠버다이빙의 위험성을 명확하게 알리고 이에 대한 스쿠버다이버들의 의식 개선을 도모하여 보다 안전한 스쿠버다이빙 환경을 제시할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.