• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk analysis&assessment

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A Review and Analysis of Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment Tools and Applications (지진 재해 위험도 평가 분석 도구 사례 분석 연구)

  • Chai, Su-Seong;Suh, Dongjun
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.899-906
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    • 2018
  • In the entire process of disaster management, it is very significant to construct related information as well as perform quantitative assessment of damage losses with respect to minimizing the effect of disasters. Many countries have paid much attention not only to studying risk assessment methodologies including constructing inventories, hazard mapping, vulnerability assessment and direct/indirect damage loss estimation, but also to developing risk analysis tools investigated in this paper. We conducted comparison studies of representative earthquake damage risk analysis tools, and the result of this study is able to provide useful information to decision makers and researchers who can contribute to development of effective disaster management.

Application Cases of Risk Assessment for British Railtrack System (영국철도시스템에 적용된 리스크평가 사례)

  • Lee, Dong-Ha;Jeong, Gwang-Tae
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.81-94
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    • 2003
  • The British railway safety research group has developed a risk assessment model for the railway infrastructure and major railway accidents. The major hazardous factors of the railway infrastructure were identified and classified in the model. The frequency rates of critical top events were predicted by the fault tree analysis method using failure data of the railway system components and ratings of railway maintenance experts, The consequences of critical top events were predicted by the event tree analysis method. They classified the Joss of accident due to railway system into personal. commercial and environmental damages. They also classified 110 hazardous event due to railway system into three categories. train accident. movement accident and non-movement accident. The risk assessment model of the British railway system has been designed to take full account of both the high frequency low consequence type events (events occurring routinely for which there is significant quantity of recorded data) and the low frequency high consequence events (events occurring rarely for which there is little recorded data). The results for each hazardous event were presented in terms of the frequency of occurrence (number of events/year) and the risk (number of equivalent fatalities per year).

Exposure and Risk Assessment of Nitrogen Dioxide and Ozone for Sub-population Groups using Monte-Carlo Simulations (Monte-Carlo 모의실험을 통한 부분 인구집단별 이산화질소와 오존의 노출 및 위해성 평가)

  • Park, Jinhyeon;Ryu, Hyeonsu;Yang, So Young;Park, Yunkyung;Heo, Jung;Kim, Eunchae;Choe, Youngtae;Cho, Mansu;Yang, Wonho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.113-125
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: Although the risk assessments for nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$) and ozone ($O_3$) have been extensively studied, most of the existing risk assessments were limited mainly to indoor environments such as workplaces, schools, and multi-use facilities. Therefore, integrated risk assessment is needed to consider exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoors. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk among sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk of Koreans. Methods: In this study, we estimated time-weighted average exposure concentrations of $NO_2$ and $O_3$ for preschool children, students, housewives, workers, and seniors using residential time and indoor concentrations (house, school or workplace, other), outdoors, and transport by meta-analysis method. The risk for $NO_2$ and $O_3$ were assessed by hazard quotient using reference concentrations 30 and 60 ppb, respectively. The risk assessments were conducted through 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool children, students, housewives, workers, and seniors spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in a house, school, or workplace, respectively. The risk assessment for the lifetime of a housewife and a worker showed that 33.8 and 28.4% of hazard quotients of $NO_2$ exceed 1, respectively, and more than 99% of hazard quotient of $O_3$ were less than 1. Conclusions: The risk of $NO_2$ and $O_3$ by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewives and workers were assessed. The risk for $NO_2$ was higher than for $O_3$ and showed a different risk by sub-population group. Both $NO_2$ and $O_3$ showed a higher risk for housewives than for workers. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment for $NO_2$ and $O_3$.

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment of a typical Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant (NGCCPP) control building

  • A. Can Zulfikar;Seyhan Okuyan Akcan;Ali Yesilyurt;Murat Eroz;Tolga Cimili
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.581-591
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    • 2023
  • North Anatolian Fault Zone is tectonically active with recent earthquakes (Mw7.6 1999-Kocaeli and Mw7.2 1999-Düzce earthquakes) and it passes through Marmara region, which is highly industrialized, densely populated and economically important part of Turkey. Many power plants, located in Marmara region, are exposed to high seismic hazard. In this study, open source OpenQuake software has been used for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis of Marmara region and risk assessment for the specified energy facility. The SHARE project seismic zonation model has been used in the analysis with the regional sources, NGA GMPEs and site model logic trees. The earthquake hazard results have been compared with the former and existing earthquake resistant design regulations in Turkey, TSC 2007 and TBSCD 2018. In the scope of the study, the seismic hazard assessment for a typical natural gas combined cycle power plant located in Marmara region has been achieved. The seismic risk assessment has been accomplished for a typical control building located in the power plant using obtained seismic hazard results. The structural and non-structural fragility functions and a consequence model have been used in the seismic risk assessment. Based on the seismic hazard level with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considered for especially these type of critical structures, the ratios of structural and non-structural loss to the total building cost were obtained as 8.8% and 45.7%, respectively. The results of the study enable the practical seismic risk assessment of the critical facility located on different regions.

Risk Factors Analysis and Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Plant Construction Project (플랜트 건설 리스크 분석 및 리스크 정량화 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Sung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Hui;Nam, Kyung-Yong;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2019
  • Due to the increasing demand for and complexity of plant construction projects, unpredictable risk factors are on the consequent increase. For that reason, the quantitative risk analysis is being called for, in order for the development of a risk assessment model using risk indicators for the plant construction projects. This study used the claim payout data collected at a global insurance company to reflect the actual financial losses in plant construction projects as dependent variables in the risk assessment model. In terms of independent variables, the geographic information, i. e., landform, and the construction information including test-run, schedule rate, total cost and duration are adopted. In addition, this study suggests that the regression model containing such independent variables that are statistically significant can be applied to as a foundational guideline for the plant construction project risk analysis during the phase of construction and commissioning.

Case Study of Health Risk Assessment and Preliminary Remediation Goals Calculation for the Petroleum Contaminated Site (유류 오염지역 토양의 위해성 평가 및 사전복원목표 산정 사례연구)

  • 정규혁
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.347-355
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    • 2002
  • As concerns on the effects of soil contamination on human health have grown, more efforts have been made to quantify the effects. One of such efforts is the development of risk assessment methodology. The fundamental objectives of this approach is to investigate the alternative options that reduce the risk of hazardous chemicals results from environmental pollution, which will eventually lead to an accomplishment of removement of identified toxicants in polluted environment. The U.S. EPA Risk Assessment guidance for the superfund (RAGS) provides a methods for assessing the health risk of contaminated soils and determining the preliminary remediation goals (PRGs). Using this approach, we assessed the health risk and preliminary remediation goals of petroleum contaminated site in Kyounggi province.

Integrated Safety Risk Assessment and Response Preparation on Construction Site Formwork Using FMECA Method (FMECA 기법을 적용한 건설현장 거푸집작업의 통합 안전위험성 평가 및 대응방안 마련)

  • An, Sun-Ju;Song, Sang-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2012
  • Risk Assessment to list possible safety disasters and their probability and severity is the starting point for effective safety management on construction project site. However, the safety managers in owners, construction supervisors, contractors, and sub-contractors still have difficulties in judging the priorities of safety activities and preparing responses to each potential safety disasters. Therefore, this study aimed to suggest a systematic method in assessing safety risk prior to commencement with the agreement of stakeholders. FMECA(failure mode effects and criticality analysis) was selected as a main assessment tool and it was modified according to the characteristics of construction projects and trades. Each risk is, firstly, evaluated with occurrence probability, possible loss and impacts to projects, and detections, and then risk priority number(RPN) is calculated. Subsequently, the managers of each stakeholder discuss the types, timing, and responsibilities of responses as a group decision-making process.

The Development of a Risk Management System in the Field of Industrial Safety in the Republic of Kazakhstan

  • Kudryavtsev, Sergey S.;Yemelin, Pavel V.;Yemelina, Natalya K.
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.30-41
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    • 2018
  • Background: The purpose of the work is to develop a system that allows processing of information for analysis and industrial risk management, to monitor the level of industrial safety and to perform necessary measures aimed at the prevention of accidents, casualties, and development of professional diseases for effective management of industrial safety at hazardous industrial sites. Methods: Risk assessment of accidents and incidents is based on expert evaluations. Based on the lists of criteria parameters and their possible values, provided by the experts, a unified information and analytical database is compiled, which is included in the final interrogation questionnaires. Risk assessment of industrial injuries and occupational diseases is based on statistical methods. Results: The result of the research is the creation of Guidelines for risk management on hazardous industrial sites of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The Guidelines determine the directions and methods of complex assessment of the state of industrial safety and labor protection and they could be applied as methodological basis at the development of preventive measures for emergencies, casualties, and incidents at hazardous industrial sites. Conclusion: Implementation of the information-analytical system of risk level assessment allows to analyze the state of risk of a possible accident at industrial sites, make valid management decisions aimed at the prevention of emergencies, and monitor the effectiveness of accident prevention measures.

A Study on Effect of Army Risk Assessment System for Preventing Safety Accidents (육군 위험성평가체계의 사고예방효과에 관한 연구)

  • Minsuk Park;Byungho Beak;Seungbae Park;Namjoo Jeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze effect of Army Risk Assessment System(ARAS) which is used to prevent safety accident in ROK army. Based on prior research, we select 4 indicators which are related to accident prevention effect and analyze the differences before and after ARAS operation for each indicators by using Paired-Samples T-Test. Also, we analyze the correlation between degree of ARAS operation and status of safety accidents of 112 ROK Army units. We conduct an evaluation of each function within the system using IPA method. The results of this study are as follows; All 4 indicators are improved compared to before ARAS operation, and the differences are statistically significant. Also, there is negative correlation between the degree of ARAS operation and the occurrence of safety accidents. So, the operation of ARAS has a positive effect on preventing safety accidents. Finally among the 15 functions of ARAS, 4 functions require improvement. The findings of this study have implications for proposing necessity of computerized system in enforcing Risk Assessment. Also, whether or not operating ARAS is important, but it is also important to operate it well. Lastly, We propose improvement plans for each function to operate it well.

Development of a Risk Analysis Assessment Models for the Construction Projects (건설공사의 위험도 분석평가 및 모델개발)

  • Lee, Jeong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.233-240
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    • 1999
  • Even though the recent construction safety disasters not only result in the loss inside construction sites but also become to a large public disasters, safety activities are managed in an irrational way and safety rules are ignored in the construction sites which leads to occur same type of disasters repeatedly. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the general construction projects safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique base on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

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