• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk adjusted performance

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A decision-centric impact assessment of operational performance of the Yongdam Dam, South Korea (용담댐 기존운영에 대한 의사결정중심 기후변화 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Daeha;Kim, Eunhee;Lee, Seung Cheol;Kim, Eunji;Shin, June
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.205-215
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    • 2022
  • Amidst the global climate crisis, dam operation policies formulated under the stationary climate assumption could lead to unsatisfactory water management. In this work, we assessed status-quo performance of the Yongdam Dam in Korea under various climatic stresses in flood risk reduction and water supply reliability for 2021-2040. To this end, we employed a decision-centric framework equipped with a stochastic weather generator, a conceptual streamflow model, and a machine-learning reservoir operation rule. By imposing 294 climate perturbations to dam release simulations, we found that the current operation rule of the Yongdam dam could redundantly secure water storage, while inefficiently enhancing the supply reliability. On the other hand, flood risks were likely to increase substantially due to rising mean and variability of daily precipitation. Here, we argue that the current operation rules of the Yongdam Dam seem to be overly focused on securing water storage, and thus need to be adjusted to efficiently improve supply reliability and reduce flood risks in downstream areas.

Association between Physical Activities and Subjective Well-being among Korea Adolescent (청소년의 신체활동과 주관적 행복감 간의 관련성)

  • Mok, Hyung-kyun;Jo, Kyu-hee;Lee, Seung-chul;Lee, Jun Hyup
    • The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the association between participation in physical activities (PA) and subjective well-being. Methods: We analyzed the data from Korean Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey, 2013 containing 36,655 and 35,780 for male and female students respectively. Study variables included PA, participation in physical education class, participation in team sports and subjective well-being. Control variables were school type, socio-economic status, level of parent education, living with parent, academic performance, delinquent behaviors, depression and perceived health. For this study, descriptive analysis, Chi-square test, and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed. Results: Among boys, after adjusting for control variables, PA (past 7 days 0 time reference group vs. over 4 times: OR 1.306), physical education class (past 7 days 0 time reference group vs. over 3 times: OR 1.140), and team sports (no team reference group vs. 2 team: OR 1.206) were associated with subjective well-being. Among girls, control variables were adjusted. PA (past 7 days 0 time reference group vs over 4 times: OR 1.244), physical education class (past 7 days 0 time reference group vs. over 3 times: OR 1.161), and team sports (no team reference group vs. 2 team: OR 1.181) were associated with subjective well-being. Conclusions: Participation in physical activities may help adolescent promote their life satisfaction. Thus, education experts should develop various exercise curriculums to encourage participation in physical activities.

Prediction of Dormancy Release and Bud Burst in Korean Grapevine Cultivars Using Daily Temperature Data (기온자료에 근거한 주요 포도품종의 휴면해제 및 발아시기 추정)

  • Kwon Eun-Young;Song Gi-Cheol;Yun Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.185-191
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    • 2005
  • An accurate prediction of dormancy release and bud burst in temperate zone fruit trees is indispensable for farmers to plan heating time under partially controlled environments as well as to reduce the risk of frost damage in open fields. A thermal time-based two-step phenological model that originated in Italy was applied to two important grapevine cultivars in Korea for predicting bud-burst dates. The model consists of two sequential periods: a rest period described by chilling requirement and a forcing period described by heating requirement. It requires daily maximum and minimum temperature as an input and calculates daily chill units (chill days in negative sign) until a pre-determined chilling requirement for rest release is met. After the projected rest release date, it adds daily heat units (anti-chill days in positive sign) to the chilling requirement. The date when the sum reaches zero isregarded as the bud-burst in the model. Controlled environment experiments using field sampled twigs of 'Campbell Early' and 'Kyoho' cultivars were carried out in the vineyard at the National Horticultural Research Institute (NHRI) in Suwon during 2004-2005 to derive the model parameters: threshold temperature for chilling and chilling requirement for breaking dormancy. The model adjusted with the selected parameters was applied to the 1994-2004 daily temperature data obtained from the automated weather station in the NHRI vineyard to estimate bud burst dates of two cultivars and the results were compared with the observed data. The model showed a consistently good performance in predicting the bud burst of 'Campbell Early' and 'Kyoho' cultivars with 2.6 and 2.5 days of root mean squared error, respectively.

Comparisons of Bleeding Risks between Rivaroxaban and Dalteparin for Treatment of Venous Thromboembolism in Cancer Patients (암환자의 정맥혈전색전증 치료에서 rivaroxaban과 dalteparin의 출혈 부작용 비교)

  • Kim, Yoon Kyung;An, Sook Hee;Kim, Jae Yeon;Chung, Jee Eun;Gwak, Hye Sun
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.195-200
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    • 2016
  • Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common and life-threating condition in cancer patients. Low molecular weight heparins (LMWH), such as dalteparin, are recommended in the treatment of VTE. Also, rivaroxaban, an orally administered direct factor Xa inhibitor, was approved for the treatment of VTE. It showed similar efficacy to standard therapy (LMWH or warfarin) and was associated with significantly lower rates of major bleedings. However, in the real world, bleeding has been reported to occur frequently in cancer patient receiving rivaroxaban. The goal of this research was to analyze bleeding risks between rivaroxaban and dalteparin for treatment of VTE in cancer patients. Methods: Medical records of oncology patients who were treated with rivaroxaban or dalteparin for VTE from July 2012 to June 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Data collected were as follows: age, sex, weight, height, cancer types and stages, ECOG (eastern cooperative oncology group) PS (performance score), VTE types, concurrently used medications, study drug information (dose and duration of therapy), INR (international normalized ratio), PT (prothrombin time), and platelet counts. Bleeding was classified into major bleedings, clinically relevant non-major bleedings, and minor bleedings. Results: A total of 399 patients were included in the study. Of these patients, 246 were treated with rivaroxaban and 153 with dalteparin. Bleeding rates were significantly higher in the rivaroxaban group than in the dalteparin group (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.09, 95% CI 1.22-3.60) after adjusting for confounders. In addition, rivaroxaban remained independently associated with 1.78-fold (95% CI 1.14-2.76) shorter time to bleeding compared to dalteparin after adjusting other factors known to be associated with poor outcomes. Conclusion: This study suggested that rivaroxaban was associated with an increased risk of bleedings in cancer patients.

Factors Related to Treatment Refusal in Taiwanese Cancer Patients

  • Chiang, Ting-Yu;Wang, Chao-Hui;Lin, Yu-Fen;Chou, Shu-Lan;Wang, Ching-Ting;Juang, Hsiao-Ting;Lin, Yung-Chang;Lin, Mei-Hsiang
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.3153-3157
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    • 2015
  • Background: Incidence and mortality rates for cancer have increased dramatically in the recent 30 years in Taiwan. However, not all patients receive treatment. Treatment refusal might impair patient survival and life quality. In order to improve this situation, we proposed this study to evaluate factors that are related to refusal of treatment in cancer patients via a cancer case manager system. Materials and Methods: This study analysed data from a case management system during the period from 2010 to 2012 at a medical center in Northern Taiwan. We enrolled a total of 14,974 patients who were diagnosed with cancer. Using the PRECEDE Model as a framework, we conducted logistic regression analysis to identify independent variables that are significantly associated with refusal of therapy in cancer patients. A multivariate logistic regression model was also applied to estimate adjusted the odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: A total of 253 patients (1.69%) refused treatment. The multivariate logistic regression result showed that the high risk factors for refusal of treatment in cancer patient included: concerns about adverse effects (p<0.001), poor performance(p<0.001), changes in medical condition (p<0.001), timing of case manager contact (p=.026), the methods by which case manager contact patients (p<0.001) and the frequency that case managers contact patients (${\geq}10times$) (p=0.016). Conclusions: Cancer patients who refuse treatment have poor survival. The present study provides evidence of factors that are related to refusal of therapy and might be helpful for further application and improvement of cancer care.

A Study on the Improvement of Insulation cover for Instrument Transformer Used In Power Receiving System of Construction Sites (건설현장의 수전설비에서 사용되는 계기용변성기 절연커버의 성능개선에 관한 연구)

  • Gil, Hyoung-Jun;Choi, Chung-Seog;Kim, Hyang-Kon;Han, Woon-Ki;Lee, Bok-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2005
  • There are many risk factors of electrical shock caused by a minimum of protective devices, loose working environments, deterioration of installations at temporary power installations of construction sites. An insulation cover for instrument transformer(MOF) used in 22.9[kV] class power receiving system hasn't shown good performance in terms of electrical safety because of short clearance between insulation cover and each input and output wire junction part. The insulation cover is easily moved by outside environment as wind or rain because of different size between insulation cover and busing, also can be leaded to breakdown by tracking. Therefore, we have proposed the insulation cover which effectively can prevent from electrical disaster in this paper, and a utility model patent had been registered already. To decrease the electric field concentrated on specific part, we had roundly designed the shape of insulation cover and the clearance between cover and live part was adjusted to be longer than the existing thing. The proposed insulation cover was evaluated by using the electric field solution program.

The Effect of Mutual Trust on Relational Performance in Supplier-Buyer Relationships for Business Services Transactions (재상업복무교역중적매매관계중상호신임대관계적효적영향(在商业服务交易中的买卖关系中相互信任对关系绩效的影响))

  • Noh, Jeon-Pyo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.32-43
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    • 2009
  • Trust has been studied extensively in psychology, economics, and sociology, and its importance has been emphasized not only in marketing, but also in business disciplines in general. Unlike past relationships between suppliers and buyers, which take considerable advantage of private networks and may involve unethical business practices, partnerships between suppliers and buyers are at the core of success for industrial marketing amid intense global competition in the 21st century. A high level of mutual cooperation occurs through an exchange relationship based on trust, which brings long-term benefits, competitive enhancements, and transaction cost reductions, among other benefits, for both buyers and suppliers. In spite of the important role of trust, existing studies in buy-supply situations overlook the role of trust and do not systematically analyze the effect of trust on relational performance. Consequently, an in-depth study that determines the relation of trust to the relational performance between buyers and suppliers of business services is absolutely needed. Business services in this study, which include those supporting the manufacturing industry, are drawing attention as the economic growth engine for the next generation. The Korean government has selected business services as a strategic area for the development of manufacturing sectors. Since the demands for opening business services markets are becoming fiercer, the competitiveness of the business service industry must be promoted now more than ever. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the mutual trust between buyers and suppliers on relational performance. Specifically, this study proposed a theoretical model of trust-relational performance in the transactions of business services and empirically tested the hypotheses delineated from the framework. The study suggests strategic implications based on research findings. Empirical data were collected via multiple methods, including via telephone, mail, and in-person interviews. Sample companies were knowledge-based companies supplying and purchasing business services in Korea. The present study collected data on a dyadic basis. Each pair of sample companies includes a buying company and its corresponding supplying company. Mutual trust was traced for each pair of companies. This study proposes a model of trust-relational performance of buying-supplying for business services. The model consists of trust and its antecedents and consequences. The trust of buyers is classified into trust toward the supplying company and trust toward salespersons. Viewing trust both at the individual level and the organizational level is based on the research of Doney and Cannon (1997). Normally, buyers are the subject of trust, but this study supposes that suppliers are the subjects. Hence, it uniquely focused on the bilateral perspective of perceived risk. In other words, suppliers, like buyers, are the subject of trust since transactions are normally bilateral. From this point of view, suppliers' trust in buyers is as important as buyers' trust in suppliers. The suppliers' trust is influenced by the extent to which it trusts the buying companies and the buyers. This classification of trust using an individual level and an organization level is based on the suggestion of Doney and Cannon (1997). Trust affects the process of supplier selection, which works in a bilateral manner. Suppliers are actively involved in the supplier selection process, working very closely with buyers. In addition, the process is affected by the extent to which each party trusts its partners. The selection process consists of certain steps: recognition, information search, supplier selection, and performance evaluation. As a result of the process, both buyers and suppliers evaluate the performance and take corrective actions on the basis of such outcomes as tangible, intangible, and/or side effects. The measurement of trust used for the present study was developed on the basis of the studies of Mayer, Davis and Schoorman (1995) and Mayer and Davis (1999). Based on their recommendations, the three dimensions of trust used for the study include ability, benevolence, and integrity. The original questions were adjusted to the context of the transactions of business services. For example, a question such as "He/she has professional capabilities" has been changed to "The salesperson showed professional capabilities while we talked about our products." The measurement used for this study differs from those used in previous studies (Rotter 1967; Sullivan and Peterson 1982; Dwyer and Oh 1987). The measurements of the antecedents and consequences of trust used for this study were developed on the basis of Doney and Cannon (1997). The original questions were adjusted to the context of transactions in business services. In particular, questions were developed for both buyers and suppliers to address the following factors: reputation (integrity, customer care, good-will), market standing (company size, market share, positioning in the industry), willingness to customize (product, process, delivery), information sharing (proprietary information, private information), willingness to maintain relationships, perceived professionalism, authority empowerment, buyer-seller similarity, and contact frequency. As a consequential variable of trust, relational performance was measured. Relational performance is classified into tangible effects, intangible effects, and side effects. Tangible effects include financial performance; intangible effects include improvements in relations, network developing, and internal employee satisfaction; side effects include those not included either in the tangible or intangible effects. Three hundred fifty pairs of companies were contacted, and one hundred five pairs of companies responded. After deleting five company pairs because of incomplete responses, one hundred five pairs of companies were used for data analysis. The response ratio of the companies used for data analysis is 30% (105/350), which is above the average response ratio in industrial marketing research. As for the characteristics of the respondent companies, the majority of the companies operate service businesses for both buyers (85.4%) and suppliers (81.8%). The majority of buyers (76%) deal with consumer goods, while the majority of suppliers (70%) deal with industrial goods. This may imply that buyers process the incoming material, parts, and components to produce the finished consumer goods. As indicated by their report of the length of acquaintance with their partners, suppliers appear to have longer business relationships than do buyers. Hypothesis 1 tested the effects of buyer-supplier characteristics on trust. The salesperson's professionalism (t=2.070, p<0.05) and authority empowerment (t=2.328, p<0.05) positively affected buyers' trust toward suppliers. On the other hand, authority empowerment (t=2.192, p<0.05) positively affected supplier trust toward buyers. For both buyers and suppliers, the degree of authority empowerment plays a crucial role in the maintenance of their trust in each other. Hypothesis 2 tested the effects of buyerseller relational characteristics on trust. Buyers tend to trust suppliers, as suppliers make every effort to contact buyers (t=2.212, p<0.05). This tendency has also been shown to be much stronger for suppliers (t=2.591, p<0.01). On the other hand suppliers trust buyers because suppliers perceive buyers as being similar to themselves (t=2.702, p<0.01). This finding confirmed the results of Crosby, Evans, and Cowles (1990), which reported that suppliers and buyers build relationships through regular meetings, either for business or personal matters. Hypothesis 3 tested the effects of trust on perceived risk. It has been found that for both suppliers and buyers the lower is the trust, the higher is the perceived risk (t=-6.621, p<0.01 for buyers; t=-2.437, p<0.05). Interestingly, this tendency has been shown to be much stronger for buyers than for suppliers. One possible explanation for this higher level of perceived risk is that buyers normally perceive higher risks than do suppliers in transactions involving business services. For this reason, it is necessary for suppliers to implement risk reduction strategies for buyers. Hypothesis 4 tested the effects of trust on information searching. It has been found that for both suppliers and buyers, contrary to expectation, trust depends on their partner's reputation (t=2.929, p<0.01 for buyers; t=2.711, p<0.05 for suppliers). This finding shows that suppliers with good reputations tend to be trusted. Prior experience did not show any significant relationship with trust for either buyers or suppliers. Hypothesis 5 tested the effects of trust on supplier/buyer selection. Unlike buyers, suppliers tend to trust buyers when they think that previous transactions with buyers were important (t=2.913 p<0.01). However, this study did not show any significant relationship between source loyalty and the trust of buyers in suppliers. Hypothesis 6 tested the effects of trust on relational performances. For buyers and suppliers, financial performance reportedly improved when they trusted their partners (t=2.301, p<0.05 for buyers; t=3.692, p<0.01 for suppliers). It is interesting that this tendency was much stronger for suppliers than it was for buyers. Similarly, competitiveness was reported to improve when buyers and suppliers trusted their partners (t=3.563, p<0.01 for buyers; t=3.042, p<0.01 for suppliers). For suppliers, efficiency and productivity were reportedly improved when they trusted buyers (t=2.673, p<0.01). Other performance indices showed insignificant relationships with trust. The findings of this study have some strategic implications. First and most importantly, trust-based transactions are beneficial for both suppliers and buyers. As verified in the study, financial performance can be improved through efforts to build and maintain mutual trust. Similarly, competitiveness can be increased through the same kinds of effort. Second, trust-based transactions can facilitate the reduction of perceived risks inherent in the purchasing situation. This finding has implications for both suppliers and buyers. It is generally believed that buyers perceive higher risks in a highly involved purchasing situation. To reduce risks, previous studies have recommended that suppliers devise risk-reducing tactics. Moving beyond these recommendations, the present study uniquely focused on the bilateral perspective of perceived risk. In other words, suppliers are also susceptible to perceived risks, especially when they supply services that require very technical and sophisticated manipulations and maintenance. Consequently, buyers and suppliers must solve problems together in close collaboration. Hence, mutual trust plays a crucial role in the problem-solving process. Third, as found in this study, the more authority a salesperson has, the more he or she can be trusted. This finding is very important with regard to tactics. Building trust is a long-term assignment; however, when mutual trust has not been developed, suppliers can overcome the problems they encounter by empowering a salesperson with the authority to make certain decisions. This finding applies to suppliers as well.

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Linear programming models using a Dantzig type risk for portfolio optimization (Dantzig 위험을 사용한 포트폴리오 최적화 선형계획법 모형)

  • Ahn, Dayoung;Park, Seyoung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.229-250
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    • 2022
  • Since the publication of Markowitz's (1952) mean-variance portfolio model, research on portfolio optimization has been conducted in many fields. The existing mean-variance portfolio model forms a nonlinear convex problem. Applying Dantzig's linear programming method, it was converted to a linear form, which can effectively reduce the algorithm computation time. In this paper, we proposed a Dantzig perturbation portfolio model that can reduce management costs and transaction costs by constructing a portfolio with stable and small (sparse) assets. The average return and risk were adjusted according to the purpose by applying a perturbation method in which a certain part is invested in the existing benchmark and the rest is invested in the assets proposed as a portfolio optimization model. For a covariance estimation, we proposed a Gaussian kernel weight covariance that considers time-dependent weights by reflecting time-series data characteristics. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated by comparing it with the benchmark portfolio with 5 real data sets. Empirical results show that the proposed portfolios provide higher expected returns or lower risks than the benchmark. Further, sparse and stable asset selection was obtained in the proposed portfolios.

Combining Non-Contrast CT Signs With Onset-to-Imaging Time to Predict the Evolution of Intracerebral Hemorrhage

  • Lei Song;Xiaoming Qiu;Cun Zhang;Hang Zhou;Wenmin Guo;Yu Ye;Rujia Wang;Hui Xiong;Ji Zhang;Dongfang Tang;Liwei Zou;Longsheng Wang;Yongqiang Yu;Tingting Guo
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.166-178
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    • 2024
  • Objective: This study aimed to determine the predictive performance of non-contrast CT (NCCT) signs for hemorrhagic growth after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) when stratified by onset-to-imaging time (OIT). Materials and Methods: 1488 supratentorial ICH within 6 h of onset were consecutively recruited from six centers between January 2018 and August 2022. NCCT signs were classified according to density (hypodensities, swirl sign, black hole sign, blend sign, fluid level, and heterogeneous density) and shape (island sign, satellite sign, and irregular shape) features. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between NCCT signs and three types of hemorrhagic growth: hematoma expansion (HE), intraventricular hemorrhage growth (IVHG), and revised HE (RHE). The performance of the NCCT signs was evaluated using the positive predictive value (PPV) stratified by OIT. Results: Multivariable analysis showed that hypodensities were an independent predictor of HE (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval] of 7.99 [4.87-13.40]), IVHG (3.64 [2.15-6.24]), and RHE (7.90 [4.93-12.90]). Similarly, OIT (for a 1-h increase) was an independent inverse predictor of HE (0.59 [0.52-0.66]), IVHG (0.72 [0.64-0.81]), and RHE (0.61 [0.54-0.67]). Blend and island signs were independently associated with HE and RHE (10.60 [7.36-15.30] and 10.10 [7.10-14.60], respectively, for the blend sign and 2.75 [1.64-4.67] and 2.62 [1.60-4.30], respectively, for the island sign). Hypodensities demonstrated low PPVs of 0.41 (110/269) or lower for IVHG when stratified by OIT. When OIT was ≤ 2 h, the PPVs of hypodensities, blend sign, and island sign for RHE were 0.80 (215/269), 0.90 (142/157), and 0.83 (103/124), respectively. Conclusion: Hypodensities, blend sign, and island sign were the best NCCT predictors of RHE when OIT was ≤ 2 h. NCCT signs may assist in earlier recognition of the risk of hemorrhagic growth and guide early intervention to prevent neurological deterioration resulting from hemorrhagic growth.

An Evaluation of a Dasymetric Surface Model for Spatial Disaggregation of Zonal Population data (구역단위 인구자료의 공간적 세분화를 위한 밀도 구분적 표면모델에 대한 평가)

  • Jun, Byong-Woon
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.614-630
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    • 2006
  • Improved estimates of populations at risk for quick and effective response to natural and man-made disasters require spatial disaggregation of zonal population data because of the spatial mismatch problem in areal units between census and impact zones. This paper implements a dasymetric surface model to facilitate spatial disaggregation of the population of a census block group into populations associated with each constituent pixel and evaluates the performance of the surface-based spatial disaggregation model visually and statistically. The surface-based spatial disaggregation model employed geographic information systems (GIS) to enable dasymetric interpolation to be guided by satellite-derived land use and land cover data as additional information about the geographic distributor of population. In the spatial disaggregation, percent cover based empirical sampling and areal weighting techniques were used to objectively determine dasymetric weights for each grid cell. The dasymetric population surface for the Atlanta metropolitan area was generated by the surface-based spatial disaggregation model. The accuracy of the dasymetric population surface was tested on census counts using the root mean square error (RMSE) and an adjusted RMSE. The errors related to each census track and block group were also visualized by percent error maps. Results indicate that the dasymetric population surface provides high-precision estimates of populations as well as the detailed spatial distribution of population within census block groups. The results also demonstrate that the population surface largely tends to overestimate or underestimate population for both the rural and forested and the urban core areas.

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