• Title/Summary/Keyword: response prediction

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Kinetic and Statistical Analysis of Adsorption and Photocatalysis on Sulfamethoxazole Degradation by UV/$TiO_2$/HAP System (UV/$TiO_2$/HAP 시스템에서 Sulfamethoxazole의 흡착과 광촉매반응에 대한 동역학적 및 통계적 해석)

  • Chun, Suk-Young;Chang, Soon-Woong
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2012
  • Antibiotics have been considered emerging compounds due to their continuous input and persistence in environment. Due to the limited biodegradability and widespread use of these antibiotics, an incomplete removal is attained in conventional wastewater treatment plants and relative large quantities are released into the environment. In this study, it was determined the adsorption and photocatalysis kinetics of antibiotics (Sulfamethoxazole, SMX) with various catalyst (Titanium dioxide; $TiO_2$, Hydroxyapatite; HAP) conditions under UV/$TiO_2$/HAP system. In addition, the statistical analysis of response surface methods (RSM) was used to determine the effects of operating parameters on UV/$TiO_2$/HAP system. $TiO_2$/HAP adsorbent were found to follow the pseudo second order reaction in the adsorption. In the result of applied intrapaticle diffusion model, the constants of reaction rate were $TiO_2$=$0.064min^{-1}$, HAP=$0.2866min^{-1}$ and $TiO_2$/HAP=$0.3708min^{-1}$, respectively.The result of RSM, term of regression analysis in analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed significantly p-value (p<0.05) and high coefficients for determination values($R^2$=96.2%, $R^2_{Adj}$=89.3%) that allowed satisfactory prediction of second order regression model. And the estimated optimal conditions for Y(Sulfamethoxazole removal efficiency, %) were $x_1$(initial concentration of Sulfamethoxazole)=-0.7828, $x_2$(amount of catalyst)=0.9974 and $x_3$(reation time)=0.5738 by coded parameters, respectively. According to the result of intraparticle diffusion model and photocatalysis experiments, it was shown that the $TiO_2$/HAP was more effective system than conventional AOPs(advanced oxidation processes, UV/$TiO_2$ system).

Development of Unfolding Energy Spectrum with Clinical Linear Accelerator based on Transmission Data (물질투과율 측정정보 기반 의료용 선형가속기의 에너지스펙트럼 유도기술 개발)

  • Choi, Hyun Joon;Park, Hyo Jun;Yoo, Do Hyeon;Kim, Byoung-Chul;Yi, Chul-Young;Min, Chul Hee
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2016
  • Background: For the accurate dose assessment in radiation therapy, energy spectrum of the photon beam generated from the linac head is essential. The aim of this study is to develop the technique to accurately unfolding the energy spectrum with the transmission analysis method. Materials and Methods: Clinical linear accelerator and Monet Carlo method was employed to evaluate the transmission signals according to the thickness of the observer material, and then the response function of the ion chamber response was determined with the mono energy beam. Finally the energy spectrum was unfolded with HEPROW program. Elekta Synergy Flatform and Geant4 tool kits was used in this study. Results and Discussion: In the comparison between calculated and measured transmission signals using aluminum alloy as an attenuator, root mean squared error was 0.43%. In the comparison between unfolded spectrum using HEPROW program and calculated spectrum using Geant4, the difference of peak and mean energy were 0.066 and 0.03 MeV, respectively. However, for the accurate prediction of the energy spectrum, additional experiment with various type of material and improvement of the unfolding program is required. Conclusion: In this research, it is demonstrated that unfolding spectra technique could be used in megavoltage photon beam with aluminum alloy and HEPROW program.

Determinants of IPO Failure Risk and Price Response in Kosdaq (코스닥 상장 시 실패위험 결정요인과 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sung-Bae;Nam, Sam-Hyun;Yi, Hwa-Deuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • Recently, failure rates of Kosdaq IPO firms are increasing and their survival rates tend to be very low, and when these firms do fail, often times backed by a number of governmental financial supports, they may inflict severe financial damage to investors, let alone economy as a whole. To ensure investors' confidence in Kosdaq and foster promising and healthy businesses, it is necessary to precisely assess their intrinsic values and survivability. This study investigates what contributed to the failure of IPO firms and analyzed how these elements are factored into corresponding firms' stock returns. Failure risks are assessed at the time of IPO. This paper considers factors reflecting IPO characteristics, a firm's underwriter prestige, auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds. The study further went on to examine how, if at all, these failure risks involved during IPO led to post-IPO stock prices. Sample firms used in this study include 98 Kosdaq firms that have failed and 569 healthy firms that are classified into the same business categories, and Logit models are used in estimate the probability of failure. Empirical results indicate that auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds shown significant relevance to failure risks at the time of IPO. Of other variables, firm's size and ROA, previously deemed significantly related to failure risks, in fact do not show significant relevance to those risks, whereas financial leverage does. This illustrates the efficacy of a model that appropriately reflects the attributes of IPO firms. Also, even though R&D expenditures were believed to be value relevant by previous studies, this study reveals that R&D is not a significant factor related to failure risks. In examing the relation between failure risks and stock prices, this study finds that failure risks are negatively related to 1 or 2 year size-adjusted abnormal returns after IPO. The results of this study may provide useful knowledge for government regulatory officials in contemplating pertinent policy and for credit analysts in their proper evaluation of a firm's credit standing.

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Prediction of the risk of skin cancer caused by UVB radiation exposure using a method of meta-analysis (Meta-analysis를 이용한 UVB 조사량에 따른 피부암 발생 위해도의 예측 연구)

  • Shin, D.C.;Lee, J.T.;Yang, J.Y.
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.31 no.1 s.60
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 1998
  • Under experimental conditions, UVB radiation, a type of ultra violet radiation, has shown to .elate with the occurrence of skin erythema (sun-burn) in human and skin cancer in experimental animal. Cumulative exposure to UVB is also believed to be at least partly responsible for the 'aging' process of the skin in human. It has also been observed to have an effect of altering DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid). UVB radiation is both an initiator and a promoter of non-melanoma skin cancer. Meta-analysis is a new discipline that critically reviews and statistically combines the results of previous researches. A recent review of meta-analysis in the field of public health emphasized its growing importance. Using a meta-analysis in this study, we explored more reliable dose-response relationships between UVB radiation and skin cancer incidence. We estimated skin cancer incidence using measured UVB radiation dose at a local area of Seoul (Shin chou-dong). The studies showing the dose-response relationships between UVB radiation and non-melanoma skin cancer incidence were searched and selected for a meta-analysis. The data for 7 reported epidemiological studies of three counties (USA, England, Australia) were pooled to estimated the risk. We estimated rate of incidence change of skin cancer using pooled data by meta-analysis method, and exponential and power models. Using either model, the regression coefficients for UVB did not differ significantly by gender and age. In each analysis of variance, non-melanoma skin cancer incidence after removing the gender and age and UVB effects was significant (p>0.01). The coefficients for UVB dose were estimated $2.07\times10^{-6}$ by the exponential model and 2.49 by the power model. At a local area of Seoul (Shinchon-Dong), BAF value were estimated 1.90 and 2.51 by the exponential and power model, respectively. The estimated BAP value were increased statistical power than that of primary studies that using a meta-analysis method.

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Limitation of Prediction on Intravenous Immunoglobulin Responsiveness in Kawasaki Disease (가와사끼병에서 정맥용 면역글로불린 치료 반응 예측의 한계)

  • Kim, Seong-Koo;Han, Ji-Yoon;Rhim, Jung Woo;Oh, Jin Hee;Han, Ji-Whan;Lee, Kyung Yil;Kang, Jin-Han;Lee, Joon-Sung
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.169-176
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : We aimed to evaluate predictive parameters for non-response to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) before IVIG use using two controls. Methods : We evaluated 229 consecutive KD patients who were treated with 2 g/kg of IVIG at a single center. Those who had persistent fever >24 hours after IVIG infusion made up the 23 IVIG non-responders; the first control included a total 206 defervesced cases and the second control included 46 cases that were matched for age and pre-treatment fever duration to non-responders. Results : Demographic and clinical characteristics were similar in IVIG non-responders and responders at presentation. As for laboratory findings, the neutrophil differential, CRP, AST, ALT, and LDH were higher, and lymphocyte differential, total protein, albumin, platelet count, and total cholesterol were significantly lower in IVIG non-responders compared to responders by univariate analysis in both study designs. However in multivariate analysis, non-responders showed a significantly higher neutrophil differential (cutoff value, >77%, sensitivity 68.4% and specificity 79.5%) and lower cholesterol (<124 mg/dL, sensitivity 79% and specificity 70.5%). Whereas plasma albumin (<3.6 g/dL, sensitivity 73.7% and specificity 60%) was the sole laboratory parameter of non-responders in the second study design. Conclusion : Severity of inflammation in KD was reflected by higher or lower laboratory values at presentation. Because the multivariate analysis for these indices may be influenced by some confounding factors, including the numbers of patients of different ages and fever duration, other assessment modalities are needed for KD patients with the greatest risk of coronary artery lesions.

Selection for Duration of Fertility and Mule Duck White Plumage Colour in a Synthetic Strain of Ducks (Anas platyrhynchos)

  • Liu, H.C.;Huang, J.F.;Lee, S.R.;Liu, H.L.;Hsieh, C.H.;Huang, C.W.;Huang, M.C.;Tai, C.;Poivey, J.P.;Rouvier, R.;Cheng, Y.S.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.605-611
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    • 2015
  • A synthetic strain of ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) was developed by introducing genes for long duration of fertility to be used as mother of mule ducklings and a seven-generation selection experiment was conducted to increase the number of fertile eggs after a single artificial insemination (AI) with pooled Muscovy semen. Reciprocal crossbreeding between Brown Tsaiya LRI-2 (with long duration of fertility) and Pekin L-201 (with white plumage mule ducklings) ducks produced the G0. Then G1 were intercrossed to produce G2 and so on for the following generations. Each female duck was inseminated 3 times, at 26, 29, and 32 weeks of age. The eggs were collected for 14 days from day 2 after AI. Individual data regarding the number of incubated eggs (Ie), the number of fertile eggs at candling at day 7 of incubation (F), the total number of dead embryos (M), the maximum duration of fertility (Dm) and the number of hatched mule ducklings (H) with plumage colour were recorded. The selection criterion was the breeding values of the best linear unbiased prediction animal model for F. The results show high percentage of exhibited heterosis in G2 for traits to improve (19.1% for F and 12.9% for H); F with a value of 5.92 (vs 3.74 in the Pekin L-201) was improved in the G2. Heritabilities were found to be low for Ie ($h^2=0.07{\pm}0.03$) and M ($h^2=0.07{\pm}0.01$), moderately low for Dm ($h^2=0.13{\pm}0.02$), of medium values for H ($h^2=0.20{\pm}0.03$) and F ($h^2=0.23{\pm}0.03$). High and favourable genetic correlations existed between F and Dm ($r_g=0.93$), between F and H ($r_g=0.97$) and between Dm and H ($r_g=0.90$). The selection experiment showed a positive trend for phenotypic values of F (6.38 fertile eggs in G10 of synthetic strain vs 5.59 eggs in G4, and 3.74 eggs in Pekin L-201), with correlated response for increasing H (5.73 ducklings in G10 vs 4.86 in G4, and 3.09 ducklings in Pekin L-201) and maximum duration of the fertile period without increasing the embryo mortality rate. The average predicted genetic response for F was 40% of genetic standard deviation per generation of selection. The mule ducklings' feather colour also was improved. It was concluded that this study provided results for a better understanding of the genetics of the duration of fertility traits in the common female duck bred for mule and that the selection of a synthetic strain was effective method of improvement.

Sensitivity of Simulated Water Temperature to Vertical Mixing Scheme and Water Turbidity in the Yellow Sea (수직 혼합 모수화 기법과 탁도에 따른 황해 수온 민감도 실험)

  • Kwak, Myeong-Taek;Seo, Gwang-Ho;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Kim, Chang-Sin;Cho, Yang-Ki
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2013
  • Accurate prediction of sea water temperature has been emphasized to make precise local weather forecast and to understand change of ecosystem. The Yellow Sea, which has turbid water and strong tidal current, is an unique shallow marginal sea. It is essential to include the effects of the turbidity and the strong tidal mixing for the realistic simulation of temperature distribution in the Yellow Sea. Evaluation of ocean circulation model response to vertical mixing scheme and turbidity is primary objective of this study. Three-dimensional ocean circulation model(Regional Ocean Modeling System) was used to perform numerical simulations. Mellor- Yamada level 2.5 closure (M-Y) and K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) scheme were selected for vertical mixing parameterization in this study. Effect of Jerlov water type 1, 3 and 5 was also evaluated. The simulated temperature distribution was compared with the observed data by National Fisheries Research and Development Institute to estimate model's response to turbidity and vertical mixing schemes in the Yellow Sea. Simulations with M-Y vertical mixing scheme produced relatively stronger vertical mixing and warmer bottom temperature than the observation. KPP scheme produced weaker vertical mixing and did not well reproduce tidal mixing front along the coast. However, KPP scheme keeps bottom temperature closer to the observation. Consequently, numerical ocean circulation simulations with M-Y vertical mixing scheme tends to produce well mixed vertical temperature structure and that with KPP vertical mixing scheme tends to make stratified vertical temperature structure. When Jerlov water type is higher, sea surface temperature is high and sea bottom temperature is low because downward shortwave radiation is almost absorbed near the sea surface.

Prognostic Value of Day 3 Inhibin-B on Assisted Reproductive Technology Outcome (보조 생식술 결과에 있어서 기저혈중 Inhibin-B의 예후인자로서의 유용성)

  • Bai, Sang-Wook;Kim, Jin-Young;Lee, Kyung-Sool;Won, Jong-Gun;Lee, Yong-Joo;Yi, Ji-Won;Chang, Kyung-Hwan;Lee, Byung-Seok;Park, Ki-Hyun;Cho, Dong-Jae;Song, Chan-Ho
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 1997
  • This study was performed to determine if women with day 3 serum inhibin-B concentrations <45pg/ml (conversion factor to SI unit, 1.00) demonstrate a poor response to ovulation induction and assisted reproductive technology outcome to women with inhibin-B${\ge}45pg$/ml, independant of day 3 FSH, E2 and patient age. From Jan 1996 to Dec 1996, 16 volunteers patients who underwent 25 IVF cycles with luteal phase GnRH agonist suppression and HMG stimulation were allocated to the study group. We evaluated day 3 serum inhibin-B, FSH, E2, peak E2, cancellation rate per initiated cycle (%) and clinical pregnancy rate per initiated cycle (%) according to the above two groups and independent of patient age, day 3 FSH, day 3 E2 and all of above combined. Women with day 3 serum inhibin-B${\ge}45pg$/ml demonstrated higher average day 3 inhibin-B level, clinical pregnancy rate per initiated cycle ($20.3{\pm}2.5$ pg/ml vs $80.9{\pm}5.0$ pg/ml, p<0.05; 24.8% vs 8.5%, p<0.05) and lower day 3 FSH level, cancellation rate per initiated cycle ($6.9{\pm}0.3$ mIU/ml vs $8.5{\pm}0.5$ mIU/ml, p<0.05; 1.5% vs 9.0%, p<0.05). Women with day 3 serum inhibin${\ge}45pg$/ml and age<40 year demonstrated higher pregnancy rate per initiated cycle (28.2% vs 7.4%, p<0.05) and lows. day 3 FSH level, cancellation rate per initiated cycle ($6.9{\pm}0.5$ mIU/ml vs $8.2{\pm}0.7$ mIU/ml, p<0.05; 1.0% vs 9.0%, p<0.05). Women with day 3 serum inhibin${\ge}45pg$/ml and day 3 FSH<15mIU/ml demonstrated higher pregnancy rate per initiated cycle (33.5% vs 9.5%, p<0.05) and lower day 3 FSH level, cancellation rate per initiated cycle ($7.7{\pm}0.2$ mIU/ml vs $8.5{\pm}0.5$ mIU/ml, p<0.05; 1.5% vs 10.0%, p<0.05). Women with day 3 serum inhibin${\ge}45pg$/ml and day 3 E2<50pg/ml demonstrated higher pregnancy rate per initiated cycle (30.0% vs 9.5%, p<0.05) and lower cancellation rate per initiated cycle (1.5% vs 9.5%, p<0.05). Women with day 3 serum inhibin${\ge}45pg$/ml, age<40 year, day 3 FSH<15mIU/ml and day 3 E2<50pg/ml demonstrated higher pregnancy rate per initiated cycle (30.0% vs 10.8%, p<0.05) and lower day 3 FSH level, cancellation rate per initiated cycle ($6.8{\pm}0.6$ mIU/ml vs $8.4{\pm}0.9$ mIU/ml, p<0.05; 1.5% vs 7.8%, p<0.05). Therefore women with low day 3 serum inhibin-B concentrations demonstrate a poorer response to ovulation induction and are less likely to conceive a clinical pregnancy though ART relative to women with high day 3 inhibin-B and day 3 serum inhibin-B, in addition to a day 3 FSH, E2 and patient age, appears helpful in prediction in IVF-ET outcome.

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Numerical Analyses for Evaluating Factors which Influence the Behavioral Characteristics of Side of Rock Socketed Drilled Shafts (암반에 근입된 현장타설말뚝의 주면부 거동에 영향을 미치는 변수분석을 위한 수치해석)

  • Lee, Hyuk-Jin;Kim, Hong-Taek
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.6C
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    • pp.395-406
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    • 2006
  • Drilled shafts are a common foundation solution for large concentrated loads. Such piles are generally constructed by drilling through softer soils into rock and the section of the shaft which is drilled through rock contributes most of the load bearing capacity. Drilled shafts derive their bearing capacity from both shaft and base resistance components. The length and diameter of the rock socket must be sufficient to carry the loads imposed on the pile safely without excessive settlements. The base resistance component can contribute significantly to the ultimate capacity of the pile. However, the shaft resistance is typically mobilized at considerably smaller pile movements than that of the base. In addition, the base response can be adversely affected by any debris that is left in the bottom of the socket. The reliability of base response therefore depends on the use of a construction and inspection technique which leaves the socket free of debris. This may be difficult and costly to achieve, particularly in deep sockets, which are often drilled under water or drilling slurry. As a consequence of these factors, shaft resistance generally dominates pile performance at working loads. The efforts to improve the prediction of drilled shaft performance are therefore primarily concerned with the complex mechanisms of shaft resistance development. The shaft resistance only is concerned in this study. The nature of the interface between the concrete pile shaft and the surrounding rock is critically important to the performance of the pile, and is heavily influenced by the construction practices. In this study, the influences of asperity characteristics such as the heights and angles, the strength characteristics and elastic constants of surrounding rock masses and the depth and length of rock socket, et. al. on the shaft resistance of drilled shafts are investigated from elasto-plastic analyses( FLAC). Through the parametric studies, among the parameters, the vertical stress on the top layer of socket, the height of asperity and cohesion and poison's ratio of rock masses are major influence factors on the unit peak shaft resistance.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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