• 신재생에너지
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.23-29
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• 2008

Wind farm development project contains high business risks because that a wind farm, which is to be operating for 20 years, has to be designed and assessed only relying on a year or little more in-situ wind data. Accordingly, long-term correction of short-term measurement data is one of most important process in wind resource assessment for project feasibility investigation. This paper shows comparison of general Measure-Correlate-Prediction models and neural network, and presents new method using neural network for increasing prediction accuracy by accommodating multiple reference data. The proposed method would be interim step to complete long-term correction methodology for Korea, complicated Monsoon country where seasonal and diurnal variation of local meteorology is very wide.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시뮬레이션학회 1998년도 The Korea Society for Simulation 98 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.101-105
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• 1998

A large system predictor, which can perform prediction of sales trend in a huge number of distribution centers, is presented using neural predictive model. There are 20,000 number of distribution centers, and each distribution center need to forecast future demand in order to establish a reasonable inventory policy. Therefore, the number of forecasting models corresponds to the number of distribution centers, which is not possible to estimate that kind of huge number of accurate models in ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning)module. Multilayer neural net as universal approximation is employed for fitting the prediction model. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a sequential simulation procedure is performed to get appropriate network structure and also to improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed simulation procedure includes neural structure identification and virtual predictive model generation. The predictive model generation consists of generating virtual signals and estimating predictive model. The virtual predictive model plays a key role in tuning the real model by absorbing the real model errors. The complement approach, based on real and virtual model, could forecast the future demands of various distribution centers.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.30-45
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• 2013

Predicting monthly electricity price has been a significant factor of decision-making for plant resource management, fuel purchase plan, plans to plant, operating plan budget, and so on. In this paper, we propose a sophisticated prediction model in terms of the technique of modeling and the variety of the collected variables. The proposed model hybridizes the semi-supervised learning and the artificial neural network algorithms. The former is the most recent and a spotlighted algorithm in data mining and machine learning fields, and the latter is known as one of the well-established algorithms in the fields. Diverse economic/financial indexes such as the crude oil prices, LNG prices, exchange rates, composite indexes of representative global stock markets, etc. are collected and used for the semi-supervised learning which predicts the up-down movement of the price. Whereas various climatic indexes such as temperature, rainfall, sunlight, air pressure, etc, are used for the artificial neural network which predicts the real-values of the price. The resulting values are hybridized in the proposed model. The excellency of the model was empirically verified with the monthly data of electricity price provided by the Korea Energy Economics Institute.

• 한국항행학회논문지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.208-213
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• 2009

본 연구는 모바일 환경에서 신경망 기법을 이용하여 서비스 호가 요구하는 대역폭의 크기를 예측하고, 목표 핸드오프호 손실확률 이하로 유지시키는 신경망 자원예측에 의한 적응 호 수락제어기법을 제안한다. 이 기법은 목표 핸드오프호의 손실확률을 설정하여 그 기준치 이상으로 핸드오프호의 손실확률이 발생하면 예약 대역폭의 양을 증가시켜부정확한 예측으로 인해 핸드오프호의 손실확률이 증가되는 것을 방지하여 핸드오프호의 GoS(Grade of Service)를 보장하기 위함이다. 제안한 신경망 자원예측과 목표 핸드오프호 손실확률에 기초한 적응 호수락제어기법의 성능을 기존의 호 수락제어기법과 비교하여 핸드오프호 손실확률을 기준치 이하로 유지할 수 있음을 보인다.

• 한국항행학회논문지
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.372-377
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 무선망에서 모바일 터미널의 호가 요구하는 무선자원의 예측방법으로 위너모델에 의한 예측방법, MMOSPRED 예측방법, 신경망기법에 의한 예측방법 과 이들 예측방법을 이용한 호 수락제어기법의 성능을 평가한다. 호 수락제어는 무선자원을 핸드오프호에 우선적으로 할당하는 핸드오프호 우선수락방법을 사용하며, 이를 위해 핸드오프호가 필요로 하는 자원의 양을 예측하여 예약하고, 나머지 용량으로 신규호의 수락/거절을 결정한다. 시뮬레이션을 통하여 자원예측방법들에 의한 자원예측의 정확성(예측오차)과 예측된 자원을 이용한 핸드오프호의 손실확률 및 신규호의 차단확률을 비교한다. 그 결과 자원예측 방법에 의해 핸드오프호의 요구자원량을 정확히 예측함으로써 핸드오프호의 손실확률과 신규호의 차단확률이 감소하였고, 위너모델에 의한 자원예측 및 호 수락제어의 성능이 우수함을 보였다.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.77-94
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• 2006

Case-based Reasoning (CBR) is widely used in business and industry prediction. It is suitable to solve complex and unstructured business problems. Recently, the prediction accuracy of CBR has been enhanced by not only various machine learning algorithms such as genetic algorithms, relative weighting of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) input variable but also data mining technique such as feature selection, feature weighting, feature transformation, and instance selection As a result, CBR is even more widely used today in business area. In this study, we investigated the usefulness of the CBR method in forecasting success in implementing ERP systems. We used a CBR method based on the feature weighting technique to compare the performance of three different models : MDA (Multiple Discriminant Analysis), GECBR (GEneral CBR), FWCBR (CBR with Feature Weighting supported by Analytic Hierarchy Process). The study suggests that the FWCBR approach is a promising method for forecasting of successful ERP implementation in Small and Medium sized Enterprises.

• 한국항행학회논문지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.435-441
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• 2013

본 논문에서는 무선 인지망에서 멀티 클래스 인지 사용자의 서비스를 지원하기 위해 신경망 예측기법에 의한 예측 연결수락제어기법을 제안한다. 제안한 기법에서는 주 사용자가 도착하여 스펙트럼 핸드오프를 해야 하는 인지 사용자를 실시간과 비 실시간 사용자로 구분하고, 실시간 인지사용자에게 가드채널(guard channel)을 우선하여 사용하도록 한다. 이를 위해서 신경망 예측기법을 이용하여 주 사용자의 도착을 예측하고, 실시간 인지사용자가 스펙트럼 핸드오프 하는데 필요로 하는 채널의 크기를 예약하여 요구하는 서비스 품질(QoS)를 보장한다. 실시간과 비 실시간 인지사용자 연결을 위한 자원스케줄링 방법은 본 논문의 $C_IA$(cognitive user I complete access)방법을 사용하며, 연결 수락제어는 인지사용자에 대해서만 실시하여 주 사용자에게는 간섭이 없도록 한다. 시뮬레이션을 통하여 제안한 연결 수락제어기법이 실시간 인지사용자가 원하는 서비스 품질을 보장할 수 있음을 보인다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.268-268
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• 2021

Groundwater resource is mostly used in Abomey-calavi (southern region of Benin) as main source of water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural activities. Groundwater intake across the region is not perfectly controlled by a network due to the presence of many private boreholes and traditional wells used by the population. After some decades, this important resource is becoming more and more vulnerable and needs more attention. For a better groundwater management in the region of Abomey-calavi, the present study attempts to predict a future probable groundwater drought using Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for future groundwater level prediction. The RNN model was created in python using jupyter library. Six years monthly groundwater level data was used for the model calibration, two years data for the model test and the model was finaly used to predict two years future groundwater level (years 2020 and 2021). GRI was calculated for 9 wells across the area from 2012 to 2021. The GRI value in dry season (by the end of March) showed groundwater drought for the first time during the study period in 2014 as severe and moderate; from 2015 to 2021 it shows only moderate drought. The rainy season in years 2020 and 2021 is relatively wet and near normal. GRI showed no drought in rainy season during the study period but an important diminution of groundwater level between 2012 and 2021. The Pearson's correlation coefficient calculated between GRI and rainfall from 2005 to 2020 (using only three wells with times series long period data) proved that the groundwater drought mostly observed in dry season is not mainly caused by rainfall scarcity (correlation values between -0.113 and -0.083), but this could be the consequence of an overexploitation of the resource which caused the important spatial and temporal diminution observed from 2012 to 2021.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.612-613
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• 2015

As a construction project is recently becoming large-scaled and complex, construction process plan and management for successful performance of a construction project has become more important. Especially a reasonable estimation plan of activity duration is required because the activity duration is directly related to the determination of the entire project duration and budget. However, the activity duration is used to estimate by the experience of a construction manager and past construction records. Furthermore, the prediction of activity duration is more difficult because there is some uncertainty caused by various influencing factors in a construction project. This study suggests an estimation model of construction activity duration using neural network theory for a more systematic and objective estimation of each activity duration. Because suggested model estimates the activity duration by a reasonable schedule plan, it is expected to reduce the error between planning duration and actual duration in a construction project. And it can be a more systematic estimation method of activity duration comparing to the estimation method by experience of project manager.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.28-37
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 고속의 연산이 가능한 인공신경망 시뮬레이터와 SA 알고리즘을 결합하여 지능형 생산정 위치 최적화 전산 모델을 개발하였다. 기존의 사용하는 상용시뮬레이터의 경우 현장 규모의 저류 전산 시뮬레이션을 수행시 시간이 많이 소모되므로 이를 해결하기 위하여 이 모델에서는 인공신경망을 사용하여 짧은 시간내에 시뮬레이션을 수행할 수 있도록 하였다. 이렇게 얻은 결과를 주관적인 경험에 의거하지 않고 자동으로 최적의 생산정 위치를 선정할 수 있도록 최적화기법인 SA 알고리즘을 적용하였다. 개발된 모델을 사용하여 얻은 결과를 기존 사용 시뮬레이터와 비교하여 예측성능이 양호함을 검증할 수 있었으며, 연산속도 또한 향상됨을 확인하였다. 특히 SA 최적화 알고리즘의 제어변수인 초기온도와 냉각률에 대한 민감도분석을 실시하여 각각에 대한 최적값을 산출하였으며, 이를 통해 개발한 모델의 연산성능을 향상시킬 수 있었다. 마지막으로 개발된 모델을 사용하여 생산정 위치 최적화를 수행한 결과, 생산성이 우수한 지역을 선정하여 최적의 생산정 위치를 도출하였다.