• Title/Summary/Keyword: residual value

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PERFORMANCE OF THE AUTOREGRESSIVE METHOD IN LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF SUNSPOT NUMBER

  • Chae, Jongchul;Kim, Yeon Han
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2017
  • The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

Method Based on Sparse Signal Decomposition for Harmonic and Inter-harmonic Analysis of Power System

  • Chen, Lei;Zheng, Dezhong;Chen, Shuang;Han, Baoru
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.559-568
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    • 2017
  • Harmonic/inter-harmonic detection and analysis is an important issue in power system signal processing. This paper proposes a fast algorithm based on matching pursuit (MP) sparse signal decomposition, which can be employed to extract the harmonic or inter-harmonic components of a distorted electric voltage/current signal. In the MP iterations, the method extracts harmonic/inter-harmonic components in order according to the spectrum peak. The Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and nonlinear optimization techniques are used in the decomposition to realize fast and accurate estimation of the parameters. First, the frequency estimation value corresponding to the maxim spectrum peak in the present residual is obtained, and the phase corresponding to this frequency is searched in discrete sinusoids dictionary. Then the frequency and phase estimations are taken as initial values of the unknown parameters for Nelder-Mead to acquire the optimized parameters. Finally, the duration time of the disturbance is determined by comparing the inner products, and the amplitude is achieved according to the matching expression of the harmonic or inter-harmonic. Simulations and actual signal tests are performed to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

Life cycle cost analysis and smart operation mode of ground source heat pump system

  • Yoon, Seok;Lee, Seung-Rae
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.743-758
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents an advanced life cycle cost (LCC) analysis of a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system and suggests a smart operation mode with a thermal performance test (TPT) and an energy pile system constructed on the site of the Incheon International Airport (IIA). First, an economic analysis of the GSHP system was conducted for the second passenger terminal of the IIA considering actual influencing factors such as government support and the residual value of the equipment. The analysis results showed that the economic efficiency of the GSHP system could be increased owing to several influential factors. Second, a multiple regression analysis was conducted using different independent variables in order to analyze the influence indices with regard to the LCC results. Every independent index, in this case the initial construction cost, lifespan of the equipment, discount rate and the amount of price inflation can affect the LCC results. Third, a GSHP system using an energy pile was installed on the site of the construction laboratory institute of the IIA. TPTs of W-shape and spiral-coil-type GHEs were conducted in continuous and intermittent operation modes, respectively, prior to system operation of the energy pile. A cooling GSHP system in the energy pile was operated in both the continuous and intermittent modes, and the LCC was calculated. Furthermore, the smart operation mode and LCC were analyzed considering the application of a thermal storage tank.

Effect of Pears on the Quality and Physiological Functionality of Makgeoly (배 첨가가 막걸리의 품질과 생리 기능성에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Dae-Hyoung;Kim, Jae-Ho;Lee, Jong-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.606-611
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to develop a high value pear Makgeoly that possessed the physiological functionality of pears and rice. To accomplish this, the effects of the addition of pears on the alcohol fermentation of Korean traditional rice wine, Makgeoly were investigated. The total acidity contents were unchanged for 9 days of fermentation after the addition of pear to the mash, however, it decreased by approximately 0.13% after 9 days. Additionally, the ethanol contents increased to 16.0% after 5 days of fermentation, after which they did not change significantly. The residual reducing sugar and free sugar content were decreased after 7 days and 5 days of fermentation, respectively. The total acceptability was the best in the Makgeoly that contained grated pear after 10 days of fermentation. Additionally, antihypertensive angiotensin Iconverting enzyme inhibitory activity was found to be greater than 80% in all pear Makgeoly, but the fibrinolytic activity, SOD-like activity and antioxidant activity were weakened. Based on these results, Makgeoly that was brewed by the addition of 20% grated pear into the fermented broth from fermentation at $20^{\circ}$ for 10 days has the potential to become a new functional Korean traditional Makgeoly with high acceptability and antihypertensive properties.

Administration of Lead Acetate on the Activity of Free Radical Meta-bolizing Enzyme and Ultrastructural Changes in Rat Kidney (흰쥐에 초산납투여가 신장조직중 Free Radical 대사효소 활성과 초미형태학적 변화에 미치는 영향)

  • 김승필;윤종국;박관규
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 1995
  • To investigate the ultrastructural changes of kidney and clarify to a cause of its changes in lead intoxicated rats, the 0.5% lead acetate administed orally to the rats and those were sacrifled at 2 day, 1, 2, 4, 6 and 8 week after the treatment of lead acetate. Each extirpated kidney was histopathologically examined under the electron microscopy and histochemical examination was also carried out. Concomitantly, the activity of free radical metabolizing enzyme was determined. The blood levels of lead concentration showed a gradual increase from the first group reaching the plateau at the one or two week group with the slightly decreasing value throughout the whole course of the experiment. And the urinary ALA concentration showed a gradual increase from the first group to the 8 week group. In the kidney tissue of rat sacrified at 6 week, the proximal tubular cells showed dilatation of endoplasmic reticulum, mitochondrial swelling, increased numbers of secondary lysosomes and myelin figure-like residual bodies on electron microscope and oxygen free radicals are identified by histochemistry on light microscope whereas there were no differences in the activity of catalase and glutathione peroxidase between the lead acetate treated group and control group. But the activity of xanthine oxidase was more increased in lead acetate treated rats than control group. Furthermore, the superoxide dismutase activity was significantly increased in the experimental group than the control group. In conclusion, it is assumed the kidney damage in lead intoxicated rat may be induced by free radicals.

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A Strategy for Moving mass Systems from One Point to Another without Inducing Residual Vibration (잔류진동 없이 질량계를 한 위치에서 다른 위치로 옮기기 위한 전략)

  • Yoon, Byung Ok;;Karnopp, Bruce H.
    • Journal of KSNVE
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 1994
  • In many circumstances, it is desired to move a mass from one position to another without inducing and vibration in the mass being moved. Two such problems are considered here : the motion of a mass initiated by another mass, nd the motion of a pendulum initiated by the specified motion of its support. In each case, it is dosired that the system start at rest and come to rest in the second position. A simple strategy for the specified motion is given here. The method is motivated by engine cam-follower design. The force required to move the system in question is determined as well as the maximum value of the force required(and the times at which these forces take place).

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Effect of Experimental Electrization Stress on the Pathogenesis of Escherichia coli in Mice (실험적 감전 Stress 가 Escherichia coli 감염마우스의 기병에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Bang Whan
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 1973
  • A hypothesis that is a stress condition in animal may cause either enhancement or reduction of the host resistance against microbial infection was experimentally studied. Among of many processes for stress formation an experimental electrization in mice was devised, on the bases of blood picture analysis, and studied the effect of experimental electrization of mice on E. coll infection. The results obtained were as follows. 1. Electrization with ordinary current, A. C. 60 cps., on the path of symmetrical line of both posterior limbs at 20 to 100 volts (less than 10 mA) for 15 to 30 seconds was able to induce a stress reaction in blood pattern without showing any dangers of electrocution, electric burns and other residual signs, and no correlation between blood pattern of the reaction and an amount of current between 20 to 100 volts was observed. As the electrodes, two of 21 gauge hypodermic needles were used, when the electrization each of them were inserted into the center of toe tissue of the both legs. 2. Serum protein fractions following the experimental electrization showed a tendency of a low A/G ratio and a high value of ${\alpha}$-globulin. 3. In the studies on the effect of electrical stress on the pathogenesis of E. coli in mice, a group in which a simultaneous electrization and infection, and a group infected two hours after electrization showed 80 per cent mortality. On the other hand, infection after 20 hours electrization and control groups showed their mortality of 40 and 60 per cent respectively.

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Development of New Products and High Value Added Biopolymer from Softwoods by Chemical Modification - Quantitative Variation of Water-soluble Extracts from Coniferous Barks for Tannin-based Adhesives - (화학가공에 의한 침엽수재의 품질귀화 및 고부가 Biopolymer 개발 (I) - 타닌접착제를 위한 침엽수 수피의 수용성 추출물의 양적 변이 -)

  • Cho, Nam-Seok;Han, Gyu-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 1996
  • Extracts from bark have been studied with a view to producing water-proof wood adhesives. Lately many softwoods, such as radiata pine from New Zealand and larch from Siberia, Russia, have been imported and utilized, and their residual barks would be expecting as potential raw materials for something useful chemicals. The great effort toward utilization of bark extractives as a chemical feedstock has been made on a worldwide level. However few report has been done for the utilization of tree bark extractives in Korea. Hot-water extracts were prepared from barks of Japanese larch(Larix leptolepis). Siberian larch(Larix gmelinii) and Radiata pine(Pinus radiata). The effect of various factors, such as particle size, liquor ratio, extraction temperature, and reaction time, on the extractive yields was discussed. Particle sizes affected the hot-water extractives: the finer the particle size, the higher extractives and extract efficiency. Higher temperature and higher liquor ratio were more effective. Extractives from Japanese larch were relatively less than those from Siberian larch and Radiata pine barks. Formaldehyde precipitates was the highest in extractives of Radiata pine barks. It could be concluded that Siberian larch bark was the best raw material for tannin adhesives, because its extractive yield was higher than those of the other barks.

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Analysis of the Esterification Process for Poly(ethylene terephthalate)

  • Ahn, Young-Cheol;Park, Soo-Myung
    • Macromolecular Research
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.399-409
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    • 2003
  • The first esterification reactor in the continuous polymerization of poly(ethylene terephthalate) has been analyzed by solving the material balances for the two-phase system with respect to the solubility of terephthalic acid. The Newton-Raphson method was used to solve the material balance equations instead of the Simplex method that is frequently used for finding a minimum point of a residual rather than a solution of an equation. A solution for the material balance equations, with the constraint of non-zero liquid phase fraction, could not be obtained with the solubility data of Yamada et al., but could be obtained with solubilities over a minimum value that is larger than their data. Thus, the solubility data of Yamada et al. are considered to be too small. On the other hand, the solubility data of Baranova and Kremer are so large that they gave a solution with the liquid phase only. Based on our results, several typical solubility curves satisfying the constraint of a non-zero liquid phase fraction are suggested in this study; we studied the reaction characteristics of the system using these curves. A higher temperature and a lower pressure are preferred for reducing the content of diethylene glycol.

$^{99m}Tc$-MDP Bone Scan in the Cases of Muscle Necrosis Associated with Acute Renal Failure (급성(急性) 신부전(腎不全)이 동반(同伴)된 근양사(筋壤死)에 있어서의 $^{99m}Tc$-MDP 골주사(骨走査))

  • Moon, H.B.;Han, J.S.;Kim, S.Y.;Cho, B.Y.;Lee, J.S.;Koh, C.S.;Cho, K.S.
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 1980
  • We studied four patients with muscle necrosis associated with acute renal failure to evaluate the diagnostic value of the bone scan in this disease. The illness followed carbon monoxide poisoning in two patients, acute physical exertion in one and contaminated intramuscular injection in the other. Whole-body rectilinear bone scans using technetium 99m-methyldiphosphonate were done. In all patients, increased muscle labelling at the regions of suspected muscle injury was showed, and in one, it was after normalization of serum muscle enzyme levels. In one patient, the bone scan was rechecked 8 months later and showed no residual abnormality. Above all, the site and precise extent of muscle injury could be detected and the degree of muscle labelling seemed to correlate with the severy of muscle injury. These findings suggest that isotope scanning may be useful in the diagnosis of patients with acute muscle necrosis.

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