• Title/Summary/Keyword: residual prediction

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A Program Development of Life Prediction Simulation for Multi-Surface Cracks on the Finite Plate (무한 평면체에 존재하는 복수 표면균열의 성장에 대한 수명예측용 시뮬레이션 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 황남성;서창민;남승훈
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.61-75
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    • 1997
  • The social demand urges us to use some equipments and structures in high temperature environment. By this occasion, the necessity of studying the fatigue crack growth is an important aspect of new materials. However, the present situation is rarely to accumulate the fatigue data. Especially, 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel and 304 stainless steel have been increased to be used under the severe condition of high temperature. And so, the fatigue estimation of those materials is important and appropriate. Fatigue tests have been carried out to examine the crack initiation, growth behaviour for the small fatigue crack of 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel and 304 stainless steel at room temperature and 538^{\circ}C$. The remote measurement system which has many merits of checking and saving the image for detailed examination was applied to closely detect the crack length. Generally, the fatigue crack initiated in the form of multiple cracks and grew each other. And then it coalesced to become a major crack. The major crack governed the rest of the fatigue life. In the growing process, each peripheral cracks interact and grow for a certain period. After then, it coalesced and fractured. On the basis of the above experimental data for the small crack, a simulation program was developed to predict the residual life time and to estimate the integrity of machine elements and structures. At the same time, the simulation was extended to 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel. The simulation results have shown a good agreement to those of the experimental ones for both materials of 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel and 304 stainless steel with small cracks. The NASCRAC has applied to compare the fatigue life with the experimental results. And so, it can be said that the simulation program is valuable tools to the industrial fields.

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Multichannel Blind Deconvolution of Multistage Structure to Eliminate Interference and Reverberation Signals (간섭 및 반향신호 제거를 위한 다단계 구조의 다채널 암묵 디콘볼루션)

  • Lim, Joung-Woo;Jeong, Gyu-Hyeok;Joo, Gi-Ho;Kim, Young-Ju;Lee, In-Sung
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2007
  • In case that multichannel blind deconvolution (MBD) applies to signals of which autocorrelation has a high level, separated signals are temporally whitened by diagonal elements of a separation filter matrix. In order to reduce this distortion, the algorithms, which are based on either constraining diagonal elements of a separation filter matrix or estimating a separation filter matrix by using linear prediction residual signals, are presented. Still, some problems are generated in these methods, when we separate reverberation of signals themselves or interference signals from mixed signals. To solve these problems, this paper proposes the multichannel blind deconvolution method which divides processing procedure into the stage to separate interference signals and the stage to eliminate a reverberation of signals themselves. In simulation results, we confirm that the proposed algorithm can solve the problems.

Confinement models for high strength short square and rectangular concrete-filled steel tubular columns

  • Aslani, Farhad;Uy, Brian;Wang, Ziwen;Patel, Vipul
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.937-974
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    • 2016
  • While extensive efforts have been made in the past to develop finite element models (FEMs) for concrete-filled steel tubular columns (CFSTCs), these models may not be suitable to be used in some cases, especially in view of the utilisation of high strength steel and high strength concrete. A method is presented herein to predict the complete stress-strain curve of concrete subjected to tri-axial compressive stresses caused by axial load coupled with lateral pressure due to the confinement action in square and rectangular CFSTCs with normal and high strength materials. To evaluate the lateral pressure exerted on the concrete in square and rectangular shaped columns, an accurately developed FEM which incorporates the effects of initial local imperfections and residual stresses using the commercial program ABAQUS is adopted. Subsequently, an extensive parametric study is conducted herein to propose an empirical equation for the maximum average lateral pressure, which depends on the material and geometric properties of the columns. The analysis parameters include the concrete compressive strength ($f^{\prime}_c=20-110N/mm^2$), steel yield strength ($f_y=220-850N/mm^2$), width-to-thickness (B/t) ratios in the range of 15-52, as well as the length-to-width (L/B) ratios in the range of 2-4. The predictions of the behaviour, ultimate axial strengths, and failure modes are compared with the available experimental results to verify the accuracy of the models developed. Furthermore, a design model is proposed for short square and rectangular CFSTCs. Additionally, comparisons with the prediction of axial load capacity by using the proposed design model, Australian Standard and Eurocode 4 code provisions for box composite columns are carried out.

Prediction of Future Milk Yield with Random Regression Model Using Test-day Records in Holstein Cows

  • Park, Byoungho;Lee, Deukhwan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.915-921
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    • 2006
  • Various random regression models with different order of Legendre polynomials for permanent environmental and genetic effects were constructed to predict future milk yield of Holstein cows in Korea. A total of 257,908 test-day (TD) milk yield records from a total of 28,135 cows belonging to 1,090 herds were considered for estimating (co)variance of the random covariate coefficients using an expectation-maximization REML algorithm in an animal mixed model. The variances did not change much between the models, having different order of Legendre polynomial, but a decreasing trend was observed with increase in the order of Legendre polynomial in the model. The R-squared value of the model increased and the residual variance reduced with the increase in order of Legendre polynomial in the model. Therefore, a model with $5^{th}$ order of Legendre polynomial was considered for predicting future milk yield. For predicting the future milk yield of cows, 132,771 TD records from 28,135 cows were randomly selected from the above data by way of preceding partial TD record, and then future milk yields were estimated using incomplete records from each cow randomly retained. Results suggested that we could predict the next four months milk yield with an error deviation of 4 kg. The correlation of more than 70% between predicted and observed values was estimated for the next four months milk yield. Even using only 3 TD records of some cows, the average milk yield of Korean Holstein cows would be predicted with high accuracy if compared with observed milk yield. Persistency of each cow was estimated which might be useful for selecting the cows with higher persistency. The results of the present study suggested the use of a $5^{th}$ order Legendre polynomial to predict the future milk yield of each cow.

Prediction of Ballistic Limit for Composite Laminates Subjected to High-velocity Impact Using Static Perforation Test (정적압입 관통 실험을 이용한 복합재 적층판의 고속충격 탄도한계속도 예측)

  • You, Won-Young;Kim, In-Gul;Lee, Seokje;Kim, Jong-Heon
    • Composites Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2013
  • The ballistic limit of Carbon/Epoxy composite laminates with the finite effective area are predicted by using the quasi-static perforation test and semi-empirical formula. The perforation energy were calculated from force-displacement curve in quasi-static perforation test. Also, the actual ballistic limit and penetration energy were obtained through the high-velocity impact test. The quasi-static perforation test and high-velocity impact test were conducted for the specimens with 3 different effective areas. In the high-velocity impact test, the air gun impact tester were used, and the ballistic and residual velocity was measured. The required inputs for the semi-empirical formula were determined by the quasi-static perforation tests and high-velocity impact tests. The comparison between semi-empirical formula and high-velocity impact test results were conducted and examined. The ballistic limits predicted by semi-empirical formula were agreed well with high-velocity impact test results.

Dynamically Induced Anomalies of the Japan/East Sea Surface Temperature

  • Trusenkova, Olga;Lobanov, Vyacheslav;Kaplunenko, Dmitry
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.11-29
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    • 2009
  • Variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Japan/East Sea (JES) was studied using complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis. Two daily data sets were analyzed: (1) New Generation 0.05o-gridded SST from Tohoku University, Japan (July 2002-July 2006), and (2) 0.25o-gridded SST from the Japan Meteorological Agency (October 1993-November 2006). Linkages with wind stress curl were revealed using 6-h 1o-gridded surface zonal and meridional winds from ancillary data of the Sea- WiFS Project, a special National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) product (1998-2005). SST anomalies (SSTA) were obtained by removing the seasonal signal, estimated as the leading mode of the CEOF decomposition of the original SST. Leading CEOF modes of residual SSTA obtained from both data sets were consistent with each other and were characterized by annual, semiannual, and quasi-biennial time scales estimated with 95% statistical significance. The Semiannual Mode lagged 2 months behind the increased occurrence of the anticyclonic (AC) wind stress curl over the JES. Links to dynamic processes were investigated by numerical simulations using an oceanic model. The suggested dynamic forcings of SSTA are the inflow of subtropical water into the JES through the Korea Strait, divergence in the surface layer induced by Ekman suction, meridional shifts of the Subarctic Front in the western JES, AC eddy formation, and wind-driven strengthening/weakening of large-scale currents. Events of west-east SSTA movement were identified in July-September. The SSTA moved from the northeastern JES towards the continental coast along the path of the westward branch of the Tsushima Current at a speed consistent with the advective scale.

Stepwise Constructive Method for Neural Networks Using a Flexible Incremental Algorithm (Flexible Incremental 알고리즘을 이용한 신경망의 단계적 구축 방법)

  • Park, Jin-Il;Jung, Ji-Suk;Cho, Young-Im;Chun, Myung-Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.574-579
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    • 2009
  • There have been much difficulties to construct an optimized neural network in complex nonlinear regression problems such as selecting the networks structure and avoiding overtraining problem generated by noise. In this paper, we propose a stepwise constructive method for neural networks using a flexible incremental algorithm. When the hidden nodes are added, the flexible incremental algorithm adaptively controls the number of hidden nodes by a validation dataset for minimizing the prediction residual error. Here, the ELM (Extreme Learning Machine) was used for fast training. The proposed neural network can be an universal approximator without user intervene in the training process, but also it has faster training and smaller number of hidden nodes. From the experimental results with various benchmark datasets, the proposed method shows better performance for real-world regression problems than previous methods.

The Effect of Managerial Overconfidence on Crash Risk (경영자과신이 주가급락위험에 미치는 영향)

  • Ryu, Haeyoung
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This paper investigates whether managerial overconfidence is associated with firm-specific crash risk. Overconfidence leads managers to overestimate the returns of their investment projects, and misperceive negative net present value projects as value creating. They even use voluntary disclosures to convey their optimistic beliefs about the firms' long-term prospects to the stock market. Thus, the overconfidence bias can lead to managerial bad news hoarding behavior. When bad news accumulates and crosses some tipping point, it will come out all at once, resulting in a stock price crash. Research design, data and methodology - 7,385 firm-years used for the main analysis are from the KIS Value database between 2006 and 2013. This database covers KOSPI-listed and KOSDAQ-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for overconfidence is based on excess investment in assets. A residual from the regression of total asset growth on sales growth run by industry-year is used as an independent variable. If a firm has at least one crash week during a year, it is referred to as a high crash risk firm. The dependant variable is a dummy variable that equals 1 if a firm is a high crash risk firm, and zero otherwise. After explaining the relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk, the total sample was divided into two sub-samples; chaebol firms and non-chaebol firms. The relation between how I overconfidence and crash risk varies with business group affiliation was investigated. Results - The results showed that managerial overconfidence is positively related to crash risk. Specifically, the coefficient of OVERC is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. The results are strong and robust in non-chaebol firms. Conclusions - The results show that firms with overconfident managers are likely to experience stock price crashes. This study is related to past literature that examines the impact of managerial overconfidence on the stock market. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether overconfidence can explain a firm's future crashes.

Numerical Modeling of Tide and Tidal Current in the Kangjin Bay, South Sea, Korea

  • Ro, Young-Jae;Jun, Woong-Sik;Jung, Kwang-Young;Eom, Hyun-Min
    • Ocean Science Journal
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.153-163
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    • 2007
  • This study is based on a series of numerical modeling experiments to understand the tidal circulation in the Kangjin Bay (KB). The tidal circulation in the KB is mostly controlled by the inflow from two channels, Noryang and Daebang which introduce the open ocean water into the northern part of the KB with relatively strong tidal current, while in the southern part of the KB, shallowest region of the entire study area, weak tidal current prevails. The model prediction of the sea level agrees with observed records at skill scores exceeding 90 % in terms of the four major tidal constituents (M2, S2, K1, O1). However, the skill scores for the tidal current show relatively lower values of 87, 99, 59, 23 for the semi-major axes of the constituents, respectively. The tidal ellipse parameters in the KB are such that the semi-major axes of the ellipse for M2 range from 1.7 to 38.5 cm/s and those for S2 range from 0.5 to 14.4 cm/s. The orientations of the major-axes show parallel with the local isobath. The eccentricity values at various grid points of ellipses for M2 and S2 are very low with 0.2 and 0.06 on the average, respectively illustrating that the tidal current in the KB is strongly rectilinear. The magnitude of the tidal residual current speed in the KB is on the order of a few cm/s and its distribution pattern is very complex. One of the most prominent features is found to be the counter-clockwise eddy recirculation cell at the mouth of the Daebang Channel.

Assessment of Incipient Decay of Radiata Pine Wood Using Stress-wave Technique in the Transverse Direction (횡단방향(橫斷方向) 응력파(應力波) 방법(方法)에 의(依)한 라디에타소나무의 초기부후(初期腐朽) 평가(評價))

  • Kim, Gyu-Hyeok;Jee, Woo-Guen;Ra, Jong-Bum
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 1996
  • The feasibility of using stress-wave technique in the transverse direction for the assessment of early stages of decay was investigated using compression test specimens having different annual ring orientations subjected to decay by Tyromyces palustris for various time intervals. Decay detection, quantitative assessment of decay, and the prediction of residual strength of decayed wood with less than five percent weight loss can be feasible using stress-wave parameters (wave velocity, wave impedance, and stress-wave elasticity) and their percent reduction due to decay, measured by stress-wave technique in the transverse direction. The use of stress-wave technique in the transverse direction for the application of this technique to structural members in service is desirable, when considering the easiness of attachment of accelerometers of stress-wave measuring device on the surface of members and also accurate detection of localized decayed areas. In stress-wave technique in the transverse direction, stress-wave parameters measured were different according to the angles between wave propagation path and annual ring, due to the anisotropy of wood structure. Therefore, it is recommended to use percent reduction in stress-wave parameters instead of stress-wave parameters. This evaluation method using percent reduction in stress-wave parameters is ideal when it is impossible to observe annual ring orientation on the transverse surface of wood.

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