• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability theory

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Evidential Analytic Hierarchy Process Dependence Assessment Methodology in Human Reliability Analysis

  • Chen, Luyuan;Zhou, Xinyi;Xiao, Fuyuan;Deng, Yong;Mahadevan, Sankaran
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.113-123
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    • 2017
  • In human reliability analysis, dependence assessment is an important issue in risky large complex systems, such as operation of a nuclear power plant. Many existing methods depend on an expert's judgment, which contributes to the subjectivity and restrictions of results. Recently, a computational method, based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory and analytic hierarchy process, has been proposed to handle the dependence in human reliability analysis. The model can deal with uncertainty in an analyst's judgment and reduce the subjectivity in the evaluation process. However, the computation is heavy and complicated to some degree. The most important issue is that the existing method is in a positive aspect, which may cause an underestimation of the risk. In this study, a new evidential analytic hierarchy process dependence assessment methodology, based on the improvement of existing methods, has been proposed, which is expected to be easier and more effective.

ON THE MINIMAX VARIANCE ESTIMATORS OF SCALE IN TIME TO FAILURE MODELS

  • Lee, Jae-Won;Shevlyakov, Georgy-L.
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2002
  • A scale parameter is the principal parameter to be estimated, since it corresponds to one of the main reliability characteristics, namely the average time to failure. To provide robustness of scale estimators to gross errors in the data, we apply the Huber minimax approach in time to failure models of the statistical reliability theory. The minimax valiance estimator of scale is obtained in the important particular case of the exponential distribution.

A Study on rapid evaluation of reliability for acyclic non-linear graph (Acyclic non-linear graph의 빠른 신뢰도 계산방법에 관한 연구)

  • 이광원;이현규
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.136-144
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    • 1998
  • FTA is the most commonly used method among quantitative safety assessment. In case that the observing system become larger, a lot of terms should be calculated to accomplish FTA through complicated process. Many methods have been tried to reduce time, one of tries is How to calculate the reliability using graph theory after changing W to graph. This paper suggests an algorithm that can calculate more rapidly reliability and outset of system expressed by non-linear graph as like as FTA or CCA.

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Parametric Estimation of a Renewal Function

  • Jeong, Hai-Sung;Na, Myung-Hwan
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2000
  • One of the most important quantities in reliability theory is the expected number of renewals of a system during a given interval. This quantity, the renewal function, is used to determine the optimal preventive maintenance policy and to estimate the cost of a warranty. In this paper we study a parametric approach for a renewal function. The simulation study is presented to compare the relative performance of the introduced estimators of a renewal function. And we show that the proposed parametric estimator performs well.

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Reliability of Machine Elements Based on Static and Dynamic Factor of Allowable Safety under Fluctuating Load (변동하중을 받는 기계요소의 정 .동적 허용안전계수를 고려한 신뢰성)

  • 양성모;김강희
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1997.04a
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    • pp.475-480
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    • 1997
  • It is common to assum identical allowable safety factors in static strength, defined by mean stress and in fatigue, defined by stress amplitude. Under the load with asymmetrical cycles the safety factor is not the same. In this paper, with the consideration of unequal allowable safety factors a general method for estimating fatigue reliability of a machine element under a combined state of stress is derived based on the theory proposed by Prof. Kececioglu and normal distribution. The calculation of fatigue reliability for limited life is discussed with example.

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A Reliability Analysis of Rigid Retaining Wall due to the Modes of Wall Movement (벽체변위에 따른 토류벽의 신뢰도해석)

  • Jae, Yeong-Su;Kim, Yong-Pil;Song, Yong-Seon
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 1988
  • The safety factor has been used widely and uniquely at present to check the safety of the structure . However, probability of failure would be logically attempted to check the reliability of the structure in future Coulomb's theory or Rankine's theory has been applied in practice to retaining earth structure in spite of the fact that the lateral earth pressure, which is the primary factor in the determination of wall structure, depends on the modes of wall movement . This study is concentrated on the two modes of , wall movement (active case rotation about bottom(AB) , active case rotation about top(AT)) of the overturning'failure of vertical wall with horizontal sand backfill . The static active earth pressure is determined by applying each of Coulomb's theory, Dubrova's redistribution theory and Chang's method The earthquake active earth pressure is determined by adding Seed and Whitman's earthquake pressure to the static earth pressure , On the condition that design variables are fixed with each of the above earth pressure, reliability is analyzed using the recently developed method of AFOSM (Advanced First Order Second Moment)

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Item Analysis using Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory, Validity and Reliability of the Korean version of a Pressure Ulcer Prevention Knowledge (한국어판 욕창예방지식도구의 고전검사이론과 문항반응이론을 적용한 문항분석, 타당도와 신뢰도)

  • Kang, Myung Ja;Kim, Myoung Soo
    • Journal of Korean Biological Nursing Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: The purposes of this study were to perform items analysis using the classical test theory (CTT) and the item response theory (IRT), and to establish the validity and reliability of the Korean version of pressure ulcer prevention knowledge. Methods: The 26-item pressure ulcer prevention knowledge instrument was translated into Korean, and the item analysis of the 22 items having an adequate content validity index (CVI), was conducted. A total of 240 registered nurses in 2 university hospitals completed the questionnaire. Each item was analyzed applying CTT and IRT according to 2-parameter logistic model. Response alternatives quality, item difficulty and item discrimination were evaluated. For testing validity and reliability, Pearson correlation coefficient and Kuder Richardson-20 (KR-20) were used. Results: Scale CVI was .90 (Item-CVI range= .75-1.00). The total correct answer rate for this study population was relatively low as 52.5%. The quality of response alternatives was found to be relatively good (range= .02-.83). The item difficulty of the questions ranged form .10 to .86 according to CTT and -12.19 to 29.92 according to the IRT. This instrument had 12-low, 2-medium and 8-high item difficulty applying IRT. The values for the item discrimination ranged .04-.57 applying CTT and .00-1.47 applying IRT. And overall internal consistency (KR-20) was .62 and stability (test-retest) was .82. Conclusion: The instrument had relatively weak construct validity, item discrimination according to the IRT. Therefore, the cautious usage of a Korean version of this instrument would be recommended for discrimination because there are so many attractive response alternatives and low internal consistency.

Fuzzy programming for improving redundancy-reliability allocation problems in series-parallel systems

  • Liu, C.M.;Li, J.L.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.79-94
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    • 2011
  • Redundancy-reliability allocation problems in multi-stage series-parallel systems are addressed in this study. Fuzzy programming techniques are proposed for finding satisfactory solutions. First, a multi-objective programming model is formulated for simultaneously maximizing system reliability and minimizing system total cost. Due to the nature of uncertainty in the problem, the fuzzy set theory and technique are used to convert the deterministic multi-objective programming model into a fuzzy nonlinear programming problem. A heuristic method is developed to get satisfactory solutions for the fuzzy nonlinear programming problem. A Pareto optimal solution is found with maximal degree of satisfaction from the interception area of fuzzy sets. A case study that is related to the electronic control unit installed on aircraft engine over-speed protection system is used to implement the developed approach. Results suggest that the developed fuzzy multi-objective programming model can effectively resolve the fuzzy and uncertain problem when design goals and constraints are not clearly confirmed at the initial conceptual design phase.

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Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage System (SMES) Utilizing Reliability Index Approach

  • Jeung, Gi-Woo;Kim, Dong-Wook;Sung, Young-Hwa;Kim, Heung-Geun;Kim, Dong-Hun
    • Journal of Magnetics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.46-50
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    • 2012
  • A reliability-based optimization method for electromagnetic design is presented to take uncertainties of design parameters into account. The method can provide an optimal design satisfying a specified confidence level in the presence of uncertain parameters. To achieve the goal, the reliability index approach based on the firstorder reliability method is adopted to deal with probabilistic constraint functions and a double-loop optimization algorithm is implemented to obtain an optimum. The proposed method is applied to the TEAM Workshop Problem 22 and its accuracy and efficiency is verified with reference of Monte Carlo simulation results.