• Title/Summary/Keyword: relative mean squared error

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Reliability and Accuracy of the Deployable Particulate Impact Sampler for Application to Spatial PM2.5 Sampling in Seoul, Korea (서울시 PM2.5 공간 샘플링을 위한 Deployable Particulate Impact Sampler의 성능 검증 연구)

  • Oh, Gyu-Lim;Heo, Jong-Bae;Yi, Seung-Muk;Kim, Sun-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 2017
  • Previous studies of health effects of $PM_{2.5}$ performed spatial monitoring campaigns to assess spatial variability of $PM_{2.5}$ across people's residences. Highly reliable portable and cost-effective samplers will be useful for such campaigns. This study aimed to investigate applicability of the Deployable Particulate Impact Sampler(DPIS), one of the compact impact samplers, to spatial monitoring campaigns of $PM_{2.5}$ in Seoul, Korea. The investigation focused on the consistency of $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations measured by DPISs compared to those by the Low-volume Cyclone sampler (LCS). LCS has operated at a fixed site in the Seoul National University Yeongeon campus, Seoul, Korea since 2003 and provided qualified $PM_{2.5}$ data. $PM_{2.5}$ sampling of DPISs was carried out at the same site from November 17, 2015 through February 3, 2016. $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations were quantified by the gravimetric method. Using a duplicated DPIS, we confirmed the reliability of DPIS by computing relative precision and mean square error-based R squared value ($R^2$). Relative precision was one minus the difference of measurements between two samplers relative to the sum. For accuracy, we compared $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations from four DPISs (DPIS_Tg, DPIS_To, DPIS_Qg, and DPIS_Qo) to those of LCS. Four samplers included two types of collection filters(Teflon, T; quartz, Q) and impaction discs(glass fiber filter, g; pre-oiled porous plastic disc, o). We assessed accuracy using accuracy value which is one minus the difference between DPIS and LCS $PM_{2.5}$ relative to LCS $PM_{2.5}$ in addition to $R^2$. DPIS showed high reliability (average precision=97.28%, $R^2=0.98$). Accuracy was generally high for all DPISs (average accuracy=83.78~88.88%, $R^2=0.89{\sim}0.93$) except for DPIS_Qg (77.35~78.35%, 0.82~0.84). Our results of high accuracy of DPIS compared to LCS suggested that DPIS will help the assessment of people's individual exposure to $PM_{2.5}$ in extensive spatial monitoring campaigns.

Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

Parameter Estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Formula Using Genetic Algorithm(II): Separation of Short and Long Durations (유전자알고리즘을 이용한 강우강도식 매개변수 추정에 관한 연구(II): 장.단기간 구분 방법의 제시)

  • Shin, Ju-Young;Kim, Tae-Son;Kim, Soo-Young;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.10
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    • pp.823-832
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the separation of short and long durations for estimation the parameters of IDF curve is suggested by using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA). Objective functions are to minimize root mean squared error (RMSE) and relative RMSE between observed and computed values. The criteria for separation are two; the first one is to estimate more precisely the parameters of IDF curve and the second is to make a single IDF curve without non-continuous duration point. For this purpose 22 rainfall recording gauges operated by Korea Meteorological Administration are selected and three IDF curves that are used generally in South Korea are tested. The result shows that the IDF curve developed by Heo et al. (1999) would be the best of three tested IDF curves, and the suggested parameter estimation method using MOGA can compute more reliable parameters compared with empirical regression analysis.

Comparison of Methods of Selecting the Threshold of Partial Duration Series for GPD Model (GPD 모형 산정을 위한 부분시계열 자료의 임계값 산정방법 비교)

  • Um, Myoung-Jin;Cho, Won-Cheol;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.527-544
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    • 2008
  • Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is frequently applied in hydrologic extreme value analysis. The main objective of statistics of extremes is the prediction of rare events, and the primary problem has been the estimation of the threshold and the exceedances which were difficult without an accurate method of calculation. In this paper, to obtain the threshold or the exceedances, four methods were considered. For this comparison a GPD model was used to estimate parameters and quantiles for the seven durations (1, 2, 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours) and the ten return periods (2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 70, 80 and 100 years). The parameters and quantiles of the three-parameter generalized Pareto distribution were estimated with three methods (MOM, ML and PWM). To estimate the degree of fit, three methods (K-S, CVM and A-D test) were performed and the relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) was calculated for a Monte Carlo generated sample. Then the performance of these methods were compared with the objective of identifying the best method from their number.

Development of MKDE-ebd for Estimation of Multivariate Probabilistic Distribution Functions (다변량 확률분포함수의 추정을 위한 MKDE-ebd 개발)

  • Kang, Young-Jin;Noh, Yoojeong;Lim, O-Kaung
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2019
  • In engineering problems, many random variables have correlation, and the correlation of input random variables has a great influence on reliability analysis results of the mechanical systems. However, correlated variables are often treated as independent variables or modeled by specific parametric joint distributions due to difficulty in modeling joint distributions. Especially, when there are insufficient correlated data, it becomes more difficult to correctly model the joint distribution. In this study, multivariate kernel density estimation with bounded data is proposed to estimate various types of joint distributions with highly nonlinearity. Since it combines given data with bounded data, which are generated from confidence intervals of uniform distribution parameters for given data, it is less sensitive to data quality and number of data. Thus, it yields conservative statistical modeling and reliability analysis results, and its performance is verified through statistical simulation and engineering examples.

Design-Based Properties of Least Square Estimators of Panel Regression Coefficients Based on Complex Panel Data (복합패널 데이터에 기초한 최소제곱 패널회귀추정량의 설계기반 성질)

  • Kim, Kyu-Seong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.515-525
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    • 2010
  • We investigated design-based properties of the ordinary least square estimator(OLSE) and the weighted least square estimator(WLSE) in a panel regression model. Given a complex data we derive the magnitude of the design-based bias of two estimators and show that the bias of WLSE is smaller than that of OLSE. We also conducted a simulation study using Korean welfare panel data in order to compare design-based properties of two estimators numerically. In the study we found the followings. First, the relative bias of OLSE is nearly two times larger than that of WLSE and the bias ratio of OLSE is greater than that of WLSE. Also the relative bias of OLSE remains steady but that of WLSE becomes smaller as the sample size increases. Next, both the variance and mean square error(MSE) of two estimators decrease when the sample size increases. Also there is a tendency that the proportion of squared bias in MSE of OLSE increases as the sample size increase, but that of WLSE decreases. Finally, the variance of OLSE is smaller than that of WLSE in almost all cases and the MSE of OLSE is smaller in many cases. However, the number of cases of larger MSE of OLSE increases when the sample size increases.

Assessment of Applicability of Portable HPGe Detector with In Situ Object Counting System based on Performance Evaluation of Thyroid Radiobioassays

  • Park, MinSeok;Kwon, Tae-Eun;Pak, Min Jung;Park, Se-Young;Ha, Wi-Ho;Jin, Young-Woo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2017
  • Background: Different cases exist in the measurement of thyroid radiobioassays owing to the individual characteristics of the subjects, especially the potential variation in the counting efficiency. An In situ Object Counting System (ISOCS) was developed to perform an efficiency calibration based on the Monte Carlo calculation, as an alternative to conventional calibration methods. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of ISOCS to thyroid radiobioassays by comparison with a conventional thyroid monitoring system. Materials and Methods: The efficiency calibration of a portable high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector was performed using ISOCS software. In contrast, the conventional efficiency calibration, which needed a radioactive material, was applied to a scintillator-based thyroid monitor. Four radioiodine samples that contained $^{125}I$ and $^{131}I$ in both aqueous solution and gel forms were measured to evaluate radioactivity in the thyroid. ANSI/HPS N13.30 performance criteria, which included the relative bias, relative precision, and root-mean-squared error, were applied to evaluate the performance of the measurement system. Results and Discussion: The portable HPGe detector could measure both radioiodines with ISOCS but the thyroid monitor could not measure $^{125}I$ because of the limited energy resolution of the NaI(Tl) scintillator. The $^{131}I$ results from both detectors agreed to within 5% with the certified results. Moreover, the $^{125}I$ results from the portable HPGe detector agreed to within 10% with the certified results. All measurement results complied with the ANSI/HPS N13.30 performance criteria. Conclusion: The results of the intercomparison program indicated the feasibility of applying ISOCS software to direct thyroid radiobioassays. The portable HPGe detector with ISOCS software can provide the convenience of efficiency calibration and higher energy resolution for identifying photopeaks, compared with a conventional thyroid monitor with a NaI(Tl) scintillator. The application of ISOCS software in a radiation emergency can improve the response in terms of internal contamination monitoring.

Enhancement of durability of tall buildings by using deep-learning-based predictions of wind-induced pressure

  • K.R. Sri Preethaa;N. Yuvaraj;Gitanjali Wadhwa;Sujeen Song;Se-Woon Choi;Bubryur Kim
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.237-247
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    • 2023
  • The emergence of high-rise buildings has necessitated frequent structural health monitoring and maintenance for safety reasons. Wind causes damage and structural changes on tall structures; thus, safe structures should be designed. The pressure developed on tall buildings has been utilized in previous research studies to assess the impacts of wind on structures. The wind tunnel test is a primary research method commonly used to quantify the aerodynamic characteristics of high-rise buildings. Wind pressure is measured by placing pressure sensor taps at different locations on tall buildings, and the collected data are used for analysis. However, sensors may malfunction and produce erroneous data; these data losses make it difficult to analyze aerodynamic properties. Therefore, it is essential to generate missing data relative to the original data obtained from neighboring pressure sensor taps at various intervals. This study proposes a deep learning-based, deep convolutional generative adversarial network (DCGAN) to restore missing data associated with faulty pressure sensors installed on high-rise buildings. The performance of the proposed DCGAN is validated by using a standard imputation model known as the generative adversarial imputation network (GAIN). The average mean-square error (AMSE) and average R-squared (ARSE) are used as performance metrics. The calculated ARSE values by DCGAN on the building model's front, backside, left, and right sides are 0.970, 0.972, 0.984 and 0.978, respectively. The AMSE produced by DCGAN on four sides of the building model is 0.008, 0.010, 0.015 and 0.014. The average standard deviation of the actual measures of the pressure sensors on four sides of the model were 0.1738, 0.1758, 0.2234 and 0.2278. The average standard deviation of the pressure values generated by the proposed DCGAN imputation model was closer to that of the measured actual with values of 0.1736,0.1746,0.2191, and 0.2239 on four sides, respectively. In comparison, the standard deviation of the values predicted by GAIN are 0.1726,0.1735,0.2161, and 0.2209, which is far from actual values. The results demonstrate that DCGAN model fits better for data imputation than the GAIN model with improved accuracy and fewer error rates. Additionally, the DCGAN is utilized to estimate the wind pressure in regions of buildings where no pressure sensor taps are available; the model yielded greater prediction accuracy than GAIN.

Nonlinear mixed models for characterization of growth trajectory of New Zealand rabbits raised in tropical climate

  • de Sousa, Vanusa Castro;Biagiotti, Daniel;Sarmento, Jose Lindenberg Rocha;Sena, Luciano Silva;Barroso, Priscila Alves;Barjud, Sued Felipe Lacerda;de Sousa Almeida, Marisa Karen;da Silva Santos, Natanael Pereira
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.648-658
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    • 2022
  • Objective: The identification of nonlinear mixed models that describe the growth trajectory of New Zealand rabbits was performed based on weight records and carcass measures obtained using ultrasonography. Methods: Phenotypic records of body weight (BW) and loin eye area (LEA) were collected from 66 animals raised in a didactic-productive module of cuniculture located in the southern Piaui state, Brazil. The following nonlinear models were tested considering fixed parameters: Brody, Gompertz, Logistic, Richards, Meloun 1, modified Michaelis-Menten, Santana, and von Bertalanffy. The coefficient of determination (R2), mean squared error, percentage of convergence of each model (%C), mean absolute deviation of residuals, Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to determine the best model. The model that best described the growth trajectory for each trait was also used under the context of mixed models, considering two parameters that admit biological interpretation (A and k) with random effects. Results: The von Bertalanffy model was the best fitting model for BW according to the highest value of R2 (0.98) and lowest values of AIC (6,675.30) and BIC (6,691.90). For LEA, the Logistic model was the most appropriate due to the results of R2 (0.52), AIC (783.90), and BIC (798.40) obtained using this model. The absolute growth rates estimated using the von Bertalanffy and Logistic models for BW and LEA were 21.51g/d and 3.16 cm2, respectively. The relative growth rates at the inflection point were 0.028 for BW (von Bertalanffy) and 0.014 for LEA (Logistic). Conclusion: The von Bertalanffy and Logistic models with random effect at the asymptotic weight are recommended for analysis of ponderal and carcass growth trajectories in New Zealand rabbits. The inclusion of random effects in the asymptotic weight and maturity rate improves the quality of fit in comparison to fixed models.

Parameter Estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve Using Genetic Algorithm (I): Comparison Study of Existing Estimation Method (유전자알고리즘을 이용한 강우강도식 매개변수 추정에 관한 연구(I): 기존 매개변수 추정방법과의 비교)

  • Kim, Tae-Son;Shin, Ju-Young;Kim, Soo-Young;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.10
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    • pp.811-821
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    • 2007
  • The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves by Talbot, Sherman and Japanese type formulas are widely used in South Korea since the parameters are easily estimated. However, these IDF curves' accuracies are relatively worse than those of the IDF curves developed by Lee et al. (1993) and Heo et al. (1999), and different parameters for the given return periods should be computed. In this study, parameter estimation method for the IDF curve by Heo et al. (1999) is suggested using genetic algorithm (GA). Quantiles computed by at-site frequency analysis using the rainfall data of 22 rainfall gauges operated by Korea Meteorological Administration are employed to estimate the parameters of IDF curves and minimizing root mean squared error (RMSE) and relative RMSE (RRMSE) of observed and computed quantiles are used as objective functions of GA. The comparison of parameter estimation methods between the empirical regression analysis and the suggested method show that the IDF curve in which the parameters are estimated by GA using RRMSE as an objective function is superior to the IDF curves using RMSE.