• 제목/요약/키워드: relative errors

검색결과 643건 처리시간 0.022초

한국주요빙계의 소유역에 대한 순간단위권 유도에 관한 연구 (I) (Studies on the Derivation of the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph for Small Watersheds of Main River Systems in Korea)

  • 이순혁
    • 한국농공학회지
    • /
    • 제19권1호
    • /
    • pp.4296-4311
    • /
    • 1977
  • This study was conducted to derive an Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph for the accurate and reliable unitgraph which can be used to the estimation and control of flood for the development of agricultural water resources and rational design of hydraulic structures. Eight small watersheds were selected as studying basins from Han, Geum, Nakdong, Yeongsan and Inchon River systems which may be considered as a main river systems in Korea. The area of small watersheds are within the range of 85 to 470$\textrm{km}^2$. It is to derive an accurate Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph under the condition of having a short duration of heavy rain and uniform rainfall intensity with the basic and reliable data of rainfall records, pluviographs, records of river stages and of the main river systems mentioned above. Investigation was carried out for the relations between measurable unitgraph and watershed characteristics such as watershed area, A, river length L, and centroid distance of the watershed area, Lca. Especially, this study laid emphasis on the derivation and application of Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) by applying Nash's conceptual model and by using an electronic computer. I U H by Nash's conceptual model and I U H by flood routing which can be applied to the ungaged small watersheds were derived and compared with each other to the observed unitgraph. 1 U H for each small watersheds can be solved by using an electronic computer. The results summarized for these studies are as follows; 1. Distribution of uniform rainfall intensity appears in the analysis for the temporal rainfall pattern of selected heavy rainfall event. 2. Mean value of recession constants, Kl, is 0.931 in all watersheds observed. 3. Time to peak discharge, Tp, occurs at the position of 0.02 Tb, base length of hlrdrograph with an indication of lower value than that in larger watersheds. 4. Peak discharge, Qp, in relation to the watershed area, A, and effective rainfall, R, is found to be {{{{ { Q}_{ p} = { 0.895} over { { A}^{0.145 } } }}}} AR having high significance of correlation coefficient, 0.927, between peak discharge, Qp, and effective rainfall, R. Design chart for the peak discharge (refer to Fig. 15) with watershed area and effective rainfall was established by the author. 5. The mean slopes of main streams within the range of 1.46 meters per kilometer to 13.6 meter per kilometer. These indicate higher slopes in the small watersheds than those in larger watersheds. Lengths of main streams are within the range of 9.4 kilometer to 41.75 kilometer, which can be regarded as a short distance. It is remarkable thing that the time of flood concentration was more rapid in the small watersheds than that in the other larger watersheds. 6. Length of main stream, L, in relation to the watershed area, A, is found to be L=2.044A0.48 having a high significance of correlation coefficient, 0.968. 7. Watershed lag, Lg, in hrs in relation to the watershed area, A, and length of main stream, L, was derived as Lg=3.228 A0.904 L-1.293 with a high significance. On the other hand, It was found that watershed lag, Lg, could also be expressed as {{{{Lg=0.247 { ( { LLca} over { SQRT { S} } )}^{ 0.604} }}}} in connection with the product of main stream length and the centroid length of the basin of the watershed area, LLca which could be expressed as a measure of the shape and the size of the watershed with the slopes except watershed area, A. But the latter showed a lower correlation than that of the former in the significance test. Therefore, it can be concluded that watershed lag, Lg, is more closely related with the such watersheds characteristics as watershed area and length of main stream in the small watersheds. Empirical formula for the peak discharge per unit area, qp, ㎥/sec/$\textrm{km}^2$, was derived as qp=10-0.389-0.0424Lg with a high significance, r=0.91. This indicates that the peak discharge per unit area of the unitgraph is in inverse proportion to the watershed lag time. 8. The base length of the unitgraph, Tb, in connection with the watershed lag, Lg, was extra.essed as {{{{ { T}_{ b} =1.14+0.564( { Lg} over {24 } )}}}} which has defined with a high significance. 9. For the derivation of IUH by applying linear conceptual model, the storage constant, K, with the length of main stream, L, and slopes, S, was adopted as {{{{K=0.1197( {L } over { SQRT {S } } )}}}} with a highly significant correlation coefficient, 0.90. Gamma function argument, N, derived with such watershed characteristics as watershed area, A, river length, L, centroid distance of the basin of the watershed area, Lca, and slopes, S, was found to be N=49.2 A1.481L-2.202 Lca-1.297 S-0.112 with a high significance having the F value, 4.83, through analysis of variance. 10. According to the linear conceptual model, Formular established in relation to the time distribution, Peak discharge and time to peak discharge for instantaneous Unit Hydrograph when unit effective rainfall of unitgraph and dimension of watershed area are applied as 10mm, and $\textrm{km}^2$ respectively are as follows; Time distribution of IUH {{{{u(0, t)= { 2.78A} over {K GAMMA (N) } { e}^{-t/k } { (t.K)}^{N-1 } }}}} (㎥/sec) Peak discharge of IUH {{{{ {u(0, t) }_{max } = { 2.78A} over {K GAMMA (N) } { e}^{-(N-1) } { (N-1)}^{N-1 } }}}} (㎥/sec) Time to peak discharge of IUH tp=(N-1)K (hrs) 11. Through mathematical analysis in the recession curve of Hydrograph, It was confirmed that empirical formula of Gamma function argument, N, had connection with recession constant, Kl, peak discharge, QP, and time to peak discharge, tp, as {{{{{ K'} over { { t}_{ p} } = { 1} over {N-1 } - { ln { t} over { { t}_{p } } } over {ln { Q} over { { Q}_{p } } } }}}} where {{{{K'= { 1} over { { lnK}_{1 } } }}}} 12. Linking the two, empirical formulars for storage constant, K, and Gamma function argument, N, into closer relations with each other, derivation of unit hydrograph for the ungaged small watersheds can be established by having formulars for the time distribution and peak discharge of IUH as follows. Time distribution of IUH u(0, t)=23.2 A L-1S1/2 F(N, K, t) (㎥/sec) where {{{{F(N, K, t)= { { e}^{-t/k } { (t/K)}^{N-1 } } over { GAMMA (N) } }}}} Peak discharge of IUH) u(0, t)max=23.2 A L-1S1/2 F(N) (㎥/sec) where {{{{F(N)= { { e}^{-(N-1) } { (N-1)}^{N-1 } } over { GAMMA (N) } }}}} 13. The base length of the Time-Area Diagram for the IUH was given by {{{{C=0.778 { ( { LLca} over { SQRT { S} } )}^{0.423 } }}}} with correlation coefficient, 0.85, which has an indication of the relations to the length of main stream, L, centroid distance of the basin of the watershed area, Lca, and slopes, S. 14. Relative errors in the peak discharge of the IUH by using linear conceptual model and IUH by routing showed to be 2.5 and 16.9 percent respectively to the peak of observed unitgraph. Therefore, it confirmed that the accuracy of IUH using linear conceptual model was approaching more closely to the observed unitgraph than that of the flood routing in the small watersheds.

  • PDF

한국 인터넷사이트들의 산업별 경쟁유형에 대한 탐색적 연구 (An Exploratory Study on the Competition Patterns Between Internet Sites in Korea)

  • 박윤서;김용식
    • Asia Marketing Journal
    • /
    • 제12권4호
    • /
    • pp.79-111
    • /
    • 2011
  • 정보통신기술의 발달로 인해 도래한 디지털 경제는 인터넷 비즈니스라는 새로운 사업영역을 창출하였다. 인터넷 비즈니스는 다른 사업과 달리 매우 유동적인 시장점유율 변동이 나타나는 비즈니스 영역으로, 기업들은 시장 내의 경쟁 환경 및 경쟁 구조를 정확히 이해하여야만 불안정한 인터넷 시장 환경에 효과적으로 대처해 나갈 수 있게 되었다. 이에, 본 연구는 한국 인터넷 비즈니스내의 인터넷 사이트 간 경쟁을 각 사업 분야 별 시장점유율에 기초하여 실증분석 하였다. 이를 통해 인터넷 사이트들의 점유율 변동 추이를 살펴보고, 시장 선도 사이트들의 시장 지배력과 개별 시장의 경쟁 구도 등을 살펴보았다. 이러한 연구결과는 각 기업의 인터넷 사이트 담당자에게는 해당 시장의 경쟁양상과 경쟁구조를 파악할 수 있는 기회를 제공하고, 인터넷 분야로 새롭게 진출하려는 기업의 마케터들에게는 자사의 사업 진출 방향에 대한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

  • PDF

품패개격촉소신식대소비자질량인지적영향(品牌价格促销信息对消费者质量认知的影响) (The Effect of Price Promotional Information about Brand on Consumer's Quality Perception: Conditioning on Pretrial Brand)

  • Lee, Min-Hoon;Lim, Hang-Seop
    • 마케팅과학연구
    • /
    • 제19권3호
    • /
    • pp.17-27
    • /
    • 2009
  • 典型的价格促销是指降低一定数量产品的价格或以相同的价 格获得更多数量的产品, 从而增加价值和创造经济的激励购买. 价格促销经常用来鼓励没有消费过产品或服务的用户试用产品或服务. 因此, 理解价格促销对那些从来没有使用过促销品牌的消费者的此品牌质量认知的影响是很重要的. 然而, 如果消费者通过价格促销获得的产品的质量不好, 促销可能达不到用经济的刺激方法来增加销售的效果. 相反则有可能发生. 具体来说, 通过价格促销消费者产生低的质量的认知会削弱经济的和心理上的激励, 减少购买的可能性. 因此, 对市场营销人员来说理解品牌的价格促销信息如何影响消费者对此品牌的质量的不良认知是非常重要的. 先前的有关价格促销对质量认知的影响的研究有不一致的解释. 一些是关注价格促销对消费者认知的不利影响. 但是其他的研究显示价格促销并没有提高消费者对品牌的不良认知. 之前的研究发现这些不一致的结果和价格促销曝光的时机以及相关的试验得出的质量评估有关. 而且, 消费者是否经历过产品促销都可能会调节这些影响. 一些研究把产品类别的不同作为基本的因素. 本研究的目的是探讨在不同的情况下, 价格促销信息对消费者的不良的质量认知产生的影响. 作者控制了促销曝光的时机, 过去的各种促销形式以及信息发布的方式. 与以往的研究不同, 作者通过控制以前个人使用此产品的经验的潜在调节作用来测试事先设定限制的价格促销的影响. 这样的操作可以解决相关的有可能产生的争议. 这种方法对实际工作方面也是有意义的. 价格促销不仅适用于已存在的目标消费者, 而且可以鼓励没有使用过产品和服务的消费者尝试此产品或服务. 因此, 对市场营销人员来说理解品牌的价格促销信息如何影响消费者对此品牌的质量的不良认知是非常重要的. 如果没有使用过这个品牌的消费者通过价格促销获得的产品的质量不好, 促销可能达不到用经济的刺激方法来增加销售的效果. 相反则有可能发生. 另外, 如果价格促销结束, 购买了这个产品的消费者可能会出现明显的减少再购买行为. 通过文献回顾, 假设1用来探讨消费者通过过去的价格促销获得的质量认知的调节作用. 消费者对没有使用过的品牌的价格促销而产生的质量认知的影响会被此品牌过去的价格促销活动所调节. 换句话说, 消费者会对没有进行过价格促销的没有使用过的品牌产生不良的质量认知. 假设2-1:未使用过的品牌进行首次价格促销的时候, 价格促销的信息发布的方式将影响价格促销的成败. 假设2-2:消费者越不在意价格促销的原因, 越容易对产品的质量产生不良的认知. 通过测试1, 简要地解释了产品和品牌在提供四种价格促销形式之前并解释说明了每种价格促销形式. WAVEX这个虚拟品牌的质量的认知被评估为7. 网球拍被选中的原因是由于选定的产品组必须过去几乎没有价格促销活动来消除促销的平均次数对价格促销信息的影响, 正如Raghubir和Corfman(1999)所提出的. 测试2也用网球拍作为产品组, 主持测试2的管理者与测试1相同. 随着测试1, 选择了对产品组熟悉而对产品不熟悉的受访者. 每个受访者被分配到代表WAVEX价格促销的两种不同信息发布方式的两组中的一组. 在评估WAVEX的质量认知为7以前, 受访者看了每个促销信息. 不熟悉的实验品牌的价格促销对消费者的质量认知的影响被证明为会被以前有过或没有价格促销活动所调节. 与过去的促销行为一致是使品牌评估变得更糟的不良影响的重要变量. 如果此品牌从未进行过价格促销, 价格促销活动会对消费者的质量认知产生不良的影响. 第二, 不熟悉的品牌进行首次价格促销时, 促销信息的发布方式会影响公司促销的成败. 当消费者进行性格归因和情境归因的比较时, 质量认知的不良影响会更大. 与先前主要关注具有或不具有情境/性格归因中良好或不良的动机的研究不同, 本研究的焦点是检验如果公司提出了具有说服性的理由, 即使消费者在价格促销行为中有性格归因, 情境归因也可以被推断出的事实. 这种方法, 在学术方面取得了很大的成果, 意义在于它运用非数学的问题来解释固定和调整过程而不像以前的研究大部分是把它用于数学问题来解释. 换句话说, 根据基本属性错误, 有很大的倾向去性格地归因其他的行为. 当这种情况出现在价格促销时, 我们可以推断出消费者很有可能性格地归因公司的价格促销行为. 反而, 即使在这种情况下, 公司可以调整消费者的锚定性来降低性格归因的可能性. 另外, 不像多数对价格促销的长/短期影响的以往的研究, 只考虑价格促销对消费者的购买行为影响, 本 研究测试对质量认知的影响, 一个影响消费者购买行为的因素. 这些结果在实际工作方面有重要启示. 本研究的结果可以作为新产品有效的提供促销信息的指南. 如果品牌要避免错误的暗示, 比如在施行价格促销战略时被认为是产品的质量不好, 一定要为促销提供清晰合理的理由. 尤其是对那些以前没有进行过价格促销活动的公司来说, 提供明确的理由尤其重要. 不一致的行为可以导致消费者的不信任和焦虑. 这也是无止境的价格战的风险的重要因素之一. 没有事先通知的价格促销会使消费者怀疑, 但不会影响市场份额.

  • PDF