• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제55권4호
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• pp.95-106
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• 2013

It is now generally known that dynamical climate modeling outputs include systematic biases in reproducing the properties of atmospheric variables such as, preciptation and temerature. There is thus, general consensus among the researchers about the need of bias-correction process prior to using climate model results especially for hydrologic applications. Among the number of bias-correction methods, distribution (e.g., cumulative distribution fuction, CDF) mapping based approach has been evaluated as one of the skillful techniques. This study investigates the uncertainty of using various CDF mapping-based methods for bias-correciton in assessing regional climate change Impacts. Two different dynamicailly-downscaled Global Circulation Model results (CCSM and GFDL under ARES4 A2 scenario) using Regional Spectial Model for retrospective peiod (1969-2000) and future period (2039-2069) were collected over the west central Florida. Total 12 possible methods (i.e., 3 for developing distribution by each of 4 for estimating biases in future projections) were examined and the variations among the results using different methods were evaluated in various ways. The results for daily temperature showed that while mean and standard deviation of Tmax and Tmin has relatively small variation among the bias-correction methods, monthly maximum values showed as significant variation (~2'C) as the mean differences between the retrospective simulations and future projections. The accuracy of raw preciptiation predictions was much worse than temerature and bias-corrected results appreared to be more significantly influenced by the methodologies. Furthermore the uncertainty of bias-correction was found to be relevant to the performance of climate model (i.e., CCSM results which showed relatively worse accuracy showed larger variation among the bias-correction methods). Concludingly bias-correction methodology is an important sourse of uncertainty among other processes that may be required for cliamte change impact assessment. This study underscores the need to carefully select a bias-correction method and that the approach for any given analysis should depend on the research question being asked.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2015

Whilst it is clear that increasing temperatures from global environmental change will impact the positions of alpine treelines, it is likely that a range of regional and local scaled factors will mediate the overall impact of global scale climate drivers. We summarized 12 categories of abiotic and biotic factors as 4 groups determining treeline positions. First, there are global factors related to climate-induced growth limitation and carbon limitation. Second, there are seven regional and local factors related to treeline dynamics including frost stress, topography, water stress, snow, wind, fire and non-fire disturbance. Third, species-specific factors can control treeline dynamics through their influence on reproduction and life history traits. Fourth, there are positive feedbacks in structuring the dynamics of treelines. Globally, the commonly accepted growth limitation hypothesis is that growth at a treeline is limited by temperature. Meanwhile, positive feedbacks between canopy cover and tree establishment are likely to control the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of many treelines. The presence of non-linear dynamics at treelines has implications for the use of treelines as barometers of climate change because the lagged responses and abrupt shifts inherent in non-equilibrium systems may combine to mask the overall climate trend.

• 대기
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.115-129
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• 2019

Surface winds over the ocean influence not only the climate change through air-sea interactions but the coastal erosion through the changes in wave height and direction. Thus, demands on a reliable projection of future changes in surface winds have been increasing in various fields. For the future projections, climate models have been widely used and, as a priori, their simulations of surface wind are required to be evaluated. In this study, we evaluate the climatological mean surface winds over the Korean Waters simulated by five regional climate models participating in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia (EA), an international regional climate model inter-comparison project. Compared with the ERA-interim reanalysis data, the CORDEX-EA models, except for HadGEM3-RA, produce stronger wind both in summer and winter. The HadGEM3-RA underestimates the wind speed and inadequately simulate the spatial distribution especially in summer. This summer wind error appears to be coincident with mean sea-level pressure in the North Pacific. For wind direction, all of the CORDEX-EA models simulate the well-known seasonal reversal of surface wind similar to the ERA-interim. Our results suggest that especially in summer, large-scale atmospheric circulation, downscaled by regional models with spectral nudging, significantly affect the regional surface wind on its pattern and strength.

• 통합자연과학논문집
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.135-140
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• 2015

Climate change which occuring the recent abrupt fluctuations in meteorological and climatological elements is bound, brings about more significant impacts and changes in human life One of the most important problems due to the impacts of climate change tends to have been decreased the food production, which is expected to make crop resources more and more important. Accordingly, agricultural meteorology should also become more important. In this study, the correlation between meteorological elements and root and tuber crops (potatoes and sweet potatoes), which are emergency crops, and meteorological elements were analyzed, and the impacts of climate changes on the production of such crops were examined. This study concludes that agriculture and food resources are important, and suggests that we should prepare for changes in crops, the weaponization of food, and the lack of water resources in the future. The meteorological element and crops element correlation analysis results. Sweet potatoes, which are negatively influenced by climate change, need breeding improvement and cultivation method development, and potatoes, which are positively influenced by climate change, require preparations for climate changes that exceed the climatic limit. The variations of agricultural production contributed to changes in crop production. Therefore, the importance of agricultural meteorology and the food crop industry should be fully recognized to prepare for climate change.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.625-638
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• 2013

Recently, the occurrences of droughts have been increased because of global warming and climate change. Water resources that mostly rely on groundwater are particularly vulnerable to the impact of precipitation variation, one of the major elements of climate change, are very sensitive to changes in the seasonal distribution as well as the average annual change in the viewpoint of agricultural activity. In this study, the status of drought for the present and future on Jeju Island which entirely rely on groundwater using SPI and PDSI were analyzed considering regional distribution of crops in terms of land use and fluctuation of water demand. The results showed that the precipitation distribution in Jeju Island is changed in intensity as well as seasonal variation of extreme events and the amount increase of precipitation during the dry season in the spring and fall indicated that agricultural water demand and supply policies would be considered by regional characteristics, especially the western region with largest market garden crops. Regarding the simulated future drought, the drought would be mitigated in the SPI method because of considering total rainfall only excluding intensity variation, while more intensified in the PDSI because it considers the evapotranspiration as well as rainfall as time passed. Moreover, the drought in the northern and western regions is getting worse than in the southern region so that the establishment of regional customized policies for water supply in Jeju Island is needed.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제31권3호
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• pp.241-252
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• 2015

Runoff behaviors by five bias correction methods were analyzed, which were Change Factor methods using past observed and estimated data by the estimation scenario with average annual calibration factor (CF_Y) or with average monthly calibration factor (CF_M), Quantile Mapping methods using past observed and estimated data considering cumulative distribution function for entire estimated data period (QM_E) or for dry and rainy season (QM_P), and Integrated method of CF_M+QM_E(CQ). The peak flow by CF_M and QM_P were twice as large as the measured peak flow, it was concluded that QM_P method has large uncertainty in monthly runoff estimation since the maximum precipitation by QM_P provided much difference to the other methods. The CQ method provided the precipitation amount, distribution, and frequency of the smallest differences to the observed data, compared to the other four methods. And the CQ method provided the rainfall-runoff behavior corresponding to the carbon dioxide emission scenario of SRES A1B. Climate change scenario with bias correction still contained uncertainty in accurate climate data generation. Therefore it is required to consider the trend of observed precipitation and the characteristics of bias correction methods so that the generated precipitation can be used properly in water resource management plan establishment.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.1018-1022
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• 2008

2007년 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) 4차보고서 이후로 지구 온난화에 대한 다양한 부분에 영향 분석 연구가 더욱 활발하게 진행되고 있으며, 그 가운데 수자원 즉 육상의 물 순환은 인간 활동과 생태계 전반에 대한 직접 영향으로 인해 기후변화 정책 수립 시 그 중요성이 더욱 부각되고 있다. 현재까지, 많은 연구에 있어서 Global Circulation Model (GCM)을 직접 축소기법을 이용한 후 이를 수문 모형에 입력하여 수자원 영향 분석을 실시해오고 있다. 국외를 중심으로 기존 GCM보다 해상도가 높은 Regional Climate Model(RCM)을 이용한 분석이 일부 시행되고 있으나, 국내에서는 자료의 가용 여부 및 적용성의 검토가 아직 미비한 실정이다. 이러한 관점에서 본 연구에서는 27km의 해상도를 갖는 기상청 RegCM3 RCM에서 도출된 10일 간격 기후변화 SRES 시나리오 자료에 대한 적합성을 평가하고자 한다. 적합성을 평가 하기위해서 국내 주요지점에 근접한 격자자료를 RCM으로부터 추출하고 이에 대한 수문학적 특성치 분석, 저빈도 분석(low frequency analysis), 극치사상의 분포형태 등을 실측 강수자료와 다양한 형태로 비교 검토하여 RCM 자료의 적합성을 평가하였다.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.38-56
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• 2019

기후변화의 지역적 광역성과 장기성으로 기후변화 문제는 일개 국가의 노력만으로는 해결할 수 없는 전지구적 난제로 자리 잡고 있다. 따라서 수직적으로 전세계(global), 지역(regional), 국가(national), 지방(local) 수준의 수직적 거버넌스가 중요하다. 또한 각 수준에서 정부, 기업, 민간의 수평적 거버넌스가 조화롭게 작동할 때 복잡한 기후변화문제에 대한 해결 실마리를 얻을 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 1990년부터 2018년까지 29년간 일간신문에서 기후변화라는 주제어를 가진 약 24,000건의 기사에 나타난 기후변화에 대한 수직적·수평적 거버넌스와 이슈트렌드 등을 분석하였다. 분석결과 우리나라에서는 수직적 측면에서 글로벌 기후변화 이슈를 중앙정부는 적극적으로 참여하고 있으나, 동북아와 같은 지역적 논의는 거의 없었다. 수평적 측면에서는 정부 중심의 논의가 주류를 이루고 있고 민간 시민단체의 참여나 기업의 참여는 부족하였다. 향후 기후변화에 효과적으로 대응하기 위해서는 수직적 측면에서는 지역적 협력에 대한 논의와 함께 기후변화가 직접적으로 행동에 옮겨질 수 있는 지방수준에서 실질적인 논의가 활발히 이루어져야 한다. 또한 수평적인 측면에서는 개발시대의 관주도적 태도에서 벗어나 시장메커니즘을 적극적으로 활용할 수 있는 방안과 시민사회의 참여를 유도할 수 있는 방안이 마련되어야 한다. 이를 위해 기후변화대응 기본법 등의 제정을 통한 제도적 정비를 제안하였다.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.64-69
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• 2013

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Working Group III, climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to execute mitigation in order to minimize adverse impacts. This paper suggests future climate change needs, employing IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) to predict temperature rises over the next 100 years. This information can be used to develop sustainable architecture applications for energy efficient buildings and renewable energy. Such climate changes could also affected the present supplies of renewable energy sources. This paper discusses one recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (Mitigation of Climate Change) and the Hadley Centre climate simulation of relevant data series for South Korea. Result of this research may improve consistency and reliability of simulation weather data or climate change in order to take advantage of SRES and PRECIS QUMP. It is expected that these calculated test reference years will be useful to the designers of solar energy systems, as well as those who need daily solar radiation data for South Korea. Also, those results may contribute zero carbon and design of sustainable architecture establishing future typical weather data that should be gone ahead to energy efficient building design using renewable energy systems.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.55-68
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• 2011

1988년 설립 이후 기후변화 원인 등을 과학적으로 밝혀내고, 기후변화 문제 해결을 위한 조치를 전세계적으로 마련하고 있는 IPCC 주요 작업 중의 하나는 온실가스 배출 시나리오에 따른 잠재적인 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 개발하고, 기후변화 대응 전략을 평가하는 것이다. IPCC 5차평가보고서를 위하여 2007년 9월 기후변화 전문가 회의에서는 약 130여명의 관련 연구자와 사용자가 참석한 가운데, 새로운 온실가스 농도 시나리오인 RCP가 확정되었고, 기후모델링(CM), 통합평가모델링(IAM), 영향, 적응, 취약성(IAV) 커뮤니티에 의한 시나리오 개발 체계 및 개발 일정이 수립되었다. 이후 세계 CM 커뮤니티는 2008년 9월 전문가회의를 통하여 IPCC AR5를 위한 기후변화 이해 증진 및 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 개발하고, IPCC AR4에서 제기된 주요 이슈를 밝혀내기 위하여, 단기와 장기 시간 규모에 대한 30여개 이상의 표준 실험 프로토콜로 구성된 제5기 결합모델 비교 프로젝트(CMIP5)를 기획하였다. 2009년 초부터 CMIP5 관련 작업들이 착수되었으며, 현재 우리나라를 포함한 14개국 19개 모델이 참여하고 있다. 또한, 지역 기후변화에 대한 관심 증대로 지역기후변화 시나리오 생산을 위한 국제적인 통합 지역상세화 실험(CORDEX)이 2009년부터 진행되고 있다. IPCC SRES 온실가스 배출 시나리오에 따른 기후변화 시나리오를 개발하여 IPCC AR4 및 국내 기후변화 대응에 기여한 바 있는 기상청 국립기상연구소는 2009년부터 IPCC AR5 시나리오 개발 전략에 따라 기후 변화 시나리오 개발을 위한 국제 사업인 CMIP5와 CORDEX에 참여하여 RCP에 근거한 지구 기후 변화 시나리오 및 국가 차원의 기후 변화 대응을 위한 국가 표준 기후 변화 시나리오 개발에 착수하였다. 기상청은 개발될 지구 기후 변화 시나리오를 IPCC에 제공하여 IPCC AR5 작성에 기여하고 할 것이며, 이 지구 기후 변화 시나리오에 지역적 지형, 기후 특성 및 기후 변화 영향 평가를 위한 분야별 요구사항을 적용하여 국가 표준 시나리오를 개발하고 2012년에 유관기관 및 산 학 연에 제공할 계획이다.