• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.539-546
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• 2001

Systematic procedure of developing radionuclide release scenarios was established based on FEP list and Interaction Matrix for near-surface LILW repository. FEPs were screened by experts＇review in terms of domestic situation and combined into scenarios on the basis of Interaction Matrix analysis. Under the assumption of design scenario, The system domain was divided into three sections: Near-field, Far-field and Biosphere. Sub-scenarios for each section were developed, and then scenarios for entire system were built up with sub-scenarios of each section. Finally, sixteen design scenarios for near-surface repository were evaluated A reference scenario and other noteworthy scenarios were selected through experts＇scenario screening.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.1772-1776
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• 2006

The Ministry of Environment is determining reference flows and goal water qualities in many stations over all around riverbasin to control TMDL. Reference flow is now defined to 10 years averaged 275th minimum flow$(Q_{275})$. Dam operation takes direct effect on flows downstream. The Yongdam mutipurposed dam was constructed in 2002 and TMDL managing stations between the Daecheong dam and the Yongdam dam are the Geumbon B, C, D, E, and F in main stream of the Geum river. Geumbon F is the Daecheong dam site. Observed flows are ideal to be used to set reference flows, but simulated flows are more practical to be used to set reference flows from the cause of the Yongdam dam's operation. A system for simulating daily storages of the Yongdam dam was constructed and the DAWAST model was selected to simulate daily streamflows. Analysis period was selected for 10 years from 1996 to 2005. Scenario was set as follows; Firstly, observed outflows from the Yongdam dam are used from 2002 to 2005 and the Yongdam dam does not exist from 1995 to 2001. Secondly, the Yongdam dam existed also from 1995 to 2001 and simulated outflows from the Yongdam dam are used from 1996 to 2005 with provision of constant outflow of $7.0m^3/s$ and water supply to the Jeonju region outsided watershed of $900,000m^3/day$. In case of scenario 1 reference flows at the Geumbon B, C, D, E, F are 4.52, 6.69, 7.96, 11.17, and $13.21m^3/s$, respectively. And in case of scenario 2 reference flows at the Geumbon B, C, D, E, F are 6.27, 8.48, 9.58, 12.73, and $15.12m^3/s$, respectively.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.211-219
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• 2013

This study uses the LEAP model that is a long-term energy analysis model to analyze reduction potential on S city residential sector energy usage for greenhouse gas emission. Energy consumption of S-si in 2009 is consumed most in residential and commerce sector by 39.1%. Also, energy and greenhouse gas emission of residential sector is expected to increase due to increase of households. Therefore, greenhouse gas reduction measures are desperately required in residential sector. For this study recognizes energy consumption of S-si residential sector and has established reduction measure of S-si residential sector greenhouse gas through literature search on domestic and foreign climate change correspondence policies. Also, construction of greenhouse gas reduction potential by reduction measures through LEAP model. There were a total of 5 reduction measures scenarios is Reference Scenario, LED Lighting, Energy Alternative, Green Life Practice, and Total Reduction Measure. As a result, greenhouse gas emission of Light Emitting Diode Lightings by 2020 was $1,181.0thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease of 6.1% compared to the Reference Scenario and Greenhouse gas emission of Energy Alternative by 2020 was $1,171.6thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease of 6.8% compared to the Reference Scenario. Greenhouse gas emission of Green Life Practice by 2020 was $1,128.7thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease of 10.2% compared to the Reference Scenario. For Total Reduction Measures by 2020 emission was $966.9thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease 23.1% compared to Reference Scenario.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.251-261
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• 2017

Objectives: This study aimed to predict the 10-year impacts of the introduction of pictorial warning labels (PWLs) on cigarette packaging in 2016 in Korea for adults using DYNAMO-HIA. Methods: In total, four scenarios were constructed to better understand the potential health impacts of PWLs: two for PWLs and the other two for a hypothetical cigarette tax increase. In both policies, an optimistic and a conservative scenario were constructed. The reference scenario assumed the 2015 smoking rate would remain the same. Demographic data and epidemiological data were obtained from various sources. Differences in the predicted smoking prevalence and prevalence, incidence, and mortality from diseases were compared between the reference scenario and the four policy scenarios. Results: It was predicted that the optimistic PWLs scenario (PWO) would lower the smoking rate by 4.79% in males and 0.66% in females compared to the reference scenario in 2017. However, the impact on the reduction of the smoking rate was expected to diminish over time. PWO will prevent 85 238 cases of diabetes, 67 948 of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 31 526 of ischemic heart disease, 21 036 of lung cancer, and 3972 prevalent cases of oral cancer in total over the 10-year span due to the reductions in smoking prevalence. The impacts of PWO are expected to be between the impact of the optimistic and the conservative cigarette tax increase scenarios. The results were sensitive to the transition probability of smoking status. Conclusions: The introduction of PWLs in 2016 in Korea is expected reduce smoking prevalence and disease cases for the next 10 years, but regular replacements of PWLs are needed for persistent impacts.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.67-75
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• 2012

Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables, this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2~3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.108-120
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• 2003

In assessing the long term post closure radiological safety assessment of a potential HLW repository in Korea, three categories of uncertainties exist. The first one is the scenario uncertainty where series of different natural events are translated into written statements. The second one is the modeling uncertatinty where different mathematical models are applied for an identical scenario. The last one is the data uncertainty which can be expressed in terms of probabilistic density functions. In this analysis, three different scenarios are seleceted; a small well scenario, a radiolysis scenario, and a naturally discharged scenario. The MASCOT-K and the AMBER, probabilistic safety assessment codes based on connection of sub-modules and a compartment theory respectively, are applied to assess annual individual doses for a generic biosphere. Results illustrate that for a given scenario, predictions from two different codes fairly match well each other But the discrepancies for the different scenarios are significant. However, total doses are still well below the guideline of 2 mRem/yr. Detailed analyses with model and data uncertainties are underway to further assure the safety of a Korean reference dispsoal concept.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.37-46
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• 2010

The development of advanced nuclear fuel cycle(ANFC) technology is essential to meet the national mission for energy independence via a nuclear option in Korea. The action target is to develop environmentally friendly, cost-effective measures to reduce the burden of long term disposal. The proper scenarios regarding potential radionuclide release from a repository have been developed in this study based on the advanced korean Reference Disposal System(A-KRS). To predict safety for the various scenarios, a new assessment code based on the GoldSim software has also been developed. Deterministic analysis indicates an environmental benefit from the ANFC as long as the solid waster from the ANFC act as a proper barrier.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.139-158
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• 1999

In this paper we present the development of CITIS(Contractor Integrated Technical Information Service) reference model system which can be utilized for electronic commerce among enterprises. For the physical analysis target model, we selected switching system businesses of Korea Telecom. From analysis of life-cycle business process and data, we derived CITIS reference model containing CITIS To-Be model and CITIS scenario. Derived CITIS reference model is generalized so that it can be used not only for switching system businesses but other business areas regarding CITIS implementation. On the base of the derived CITIS reference model, We also developed CITIS information management system and CITIS-support workflow system as CITIS reference model system. Developed CITIS reference model system supports information and business process sharing among enterprises on internet and it does make a contribution to expansion of CITIS which is moving from conceptual research towards real implementation phase.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2016.09a
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• pp.201-205
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• 2016