• Title/Summary/Keyword: real estate price index

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Price Prediction of Fractional Investment Products Using LSTM Algorithm: Focusing on Musicow (LSTM 모델을 이용한 조각투자 상품의 가격 예측: 뮤직카우를 중심으로)

  • Jung, Hyunjo;Lee, Jaehwan;Suh, Jihae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.81-94
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    • 2022
  • Real estate and artworks were considered challenging investment targets for individual investors because of their relatively high average transaction price despite their long investment history. Recently, the so-called fractional investment, generally known as investing in a share of the ownership right for real-life assets, etc., and most investors perceive that they actually own a piece (fraction) of the ownership right through their investments, is gaining popularity. Founded in 2016, Musicow started the first service that allows users to invest in copyright fees related to music distribution. Using the LSTM algorithm, one of the deep learning algorithms, this research predict the price of right to participate in copyright fees traded in Musicow. In addition to variables related to claims such as transfer price, transaction volume of claims, and copyright fees, comprehensive indicators indicating the market conditions for music copyright fees participation, exchange rates reflecting economic conditions, KTB interest rates, and Korea Composite Stock Index were also used as variables. As a result, it was confirmed that the LSTM algorithm accurately predicts the transaction price even in the case of fractional investment which has a relatively low transaction volume.

The Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Housing and Business Cycle (경기변동과 주택형태별 수익률에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2009.04a
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    • pp.455-475
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    • 2009
  • According to the returns of Housing and business cycle over the period 1992 to 2007, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in Housing properties. First, it isn't a distinct difference from business cycle contrary to U.S. Second, the rise of purchase price in total apartments moves up the consumer price index. According to the cross-sectional dispersion of returns and growth in net operating income (NOI) of apartments, industrial, retail and office properties using panel data for U.S. metropolitan areas over the period 1986 to 2002, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in commercial real estate. To the extent that most of that volatility is difficult to diversify, cross-sectional dispersion may be an appropriate measure of risk.

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Bayesian estimation for frequency using resampling methods (재표본 방법론을 활용한 베이지안 주파수 추정)

  • Pak, Ro Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.877-888
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    • 2017
  • Spectral analysis is used to determine the frequency of time series data. We first determine the frequency of the series through the power spectrum or the periodogram and then calculate the period of a cycle that may exist in a time series. Estimating the frequency using a Bayesian technique has been developed and proven to be useful; however, the Bayesian estimator for the frequency cannot be analytically solved through mathematical equations and may be handled numerically or computationally. In this paper, we make an inference on the Bayesian frequency through both resampling a parameter by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and resampling data by bootstrap methods for a time series. We take the Korean real estate price index as an example for Bayesian frequency estimation. We have found a difference in the periods between the sale price index and the long term rental price index, but the difference is not statistically significant.

A Study on Relationship between House Rental Price and Macroeconomic Variables (주택 전세가격과 거시경제변수간의 관계 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Woo;Chin, Kyung-Ho;Lee, Kyo-Sun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.128-136
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we investigated the macroeconomic variables that affect housing prices thus creating a large impact on people's lives as well as the real estate market. For the study, the macroeconomic variables able to influence the House Rental Price (housing price by lease or deposit) were used for an analysis as follows: housing sales price index, household loans rate, total household savings, the number of employees and a multiple regression analysis was performed using a time series for each macroeconomic variable. As a result of the analysis, the House Rental Price was affected by all of four macroeconomic variables. The House Rental Price increased as each variable enlarged. In conclusion, this study may be useful for finding a solution for stabilizing the House Rental Price as well as for the establishment of efficient and sustainable policies for the housing market.

A Dynamic Study on Housing and Stock Market in Europe : Focused on Greece

  • JEONG, Dong-Bin
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.57-69
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This study examines what are the asset market fluctuations in Europe and how each economic variable affects major variables, and explore the dynamics of housing and stock market through Greece. The variables under consideration are balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), M3, real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). We investigate the functional and causal relationships between housing and stock market. Research design, data, and methodology - Vector error correction model (VECM) is used to figure out the dynamic relationships among variables. This study also contains the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root, cointegration, Granger causality test, and impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis by EViews 11.0. Results - The statistical tests show that all variables under consideration have one unit root and there is a longterm equilibrium relationship among variables for Greece. GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN can be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market, while GDP, LOAN, M3, BCA and HOUSING can bring direct effects to stock market in Greece. Conclusions - It can be judged that the policy that affects the lending policy of financial institutions may be more effective than the indirect variable such as monetary interest rate.

A Study on the Global Co-movement & Spillover Effect of Housing Price (주택가격의 글로벌 동조화와 파급경로에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Young Gil
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.39-52
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    • 2014
  • This study examines the degree of global co-movement & spillover effect among the housing price of ten major countries of OECD including Korea, based on the 3 hypothesis. The data used in this study is quarterly house price index of OECD countries from 1975 to 2012. VAR model is used to analyze the co-movement, and Granger causality methodology is used for the analysis of Spillover Effect. It is found that entire period of study is that the global house prices showed the co-movement, but the coefficient was weak. Since 2008 global financial crisis, the co-movement increased significantly and the adjusted R-square of this model increased 78% compared to the entire period (1975-2012). In general, all hypotheses in this study were significant, and the common shock hypothesis were most significant. In case of Korea, the degree of co-movement was weak compared to the other countries and spillover effect was independent since 2008.

Volatility Analysis of Housing Prices as the Housing Size (주택 규모에 따른 가격 변동성 분석)

  • Kim, Jongho;Chung, Jaeho;Baek, Sungjoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.432-439
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we evaluate the volatility of housing prices by using literature review and empirical analysis and furthermore we suggest how to improve. In order to diagnose housing market, the KB Bank's House Price Index, Real estate 114;s materials were compared. In addition, to examine the volatility, GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) and EGARCH (Exponential GARCH) model are used. By analysis of this research, we found the volatility of housing price also was reduced in the medium and the large houses since 1998, while the volatility of small housing price relatively was large. We proved that the price change rate of small housing was higher than the medium's. On the order hand, the supply of small apartments fell down sharply. The short-term oriented policy should be avoided, and the efficiency and credibility of policy should be increased. Furthermore, the long-term policy system should be established. and rental market's improvement is necessary for stabilization of housing market.

Analysis of a Stock Price Trend and Future Investment Value of Cultural Content-related Convergence Business (문화콘텐츠 관련 융복합 기업들의 주가동향 및 향후 투자가치 분석)

  • Choi, Jeong-Il;Lee, Ok-Dong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2015
  • This study used for KOSPI, KOSDAQ, entertainment culture and digital contents index that is related to cultural contents industry. There was investigated the each stock price index and return trends for a total 597 weeks to July 2015 from March 2004. They looked the content-related stocks about investment worth to comparative analysis the return, volatility, correlation, synchronization phenomena etc. of each stock index. When we saw the growth potential of the cultural contents industry forward, looked forward to the investment possibility of related stocks. Analysis Result cultural content related stocks showed a higher rate after the last 2008 global financial crisis. Recent as high interest in the cultural contents industry, we could see that the investment merit increases slowly. In the future, the cultural content industry is expected to continue to evolve. The increase of investments value in the cultural content related businesses is much expectation.

Study on Effects of Alternative Investment Goods in the Era of IT in Relation to Bid Rate of Neighboring Shopping Area (IT 시대의 대체투자재가 근린상가 낙찰가율에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Chan-Kook;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.377-386
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzed how alternative investment goods would affect a market in a neighboring shopping area in order to provide parties involved in the investment market of this neighboring shopping area with standards which would help them when they try to make a reasonable determination. The study estimated forms and explanation power of the effects of a bid rate of a neighboring shopping area, and came up with those results as follows. Increases in the representative macro economic indicators, the composite stock price index and the fluctuation rate of land price, including the real estate business would have a positive influence on the market of the neighboring shopping area as playing a circumstantial evidence of market recovery and yet, the increase in interest rate, the alternative investment goods, would reduce the relative price-earnings ratio which would, eventually, negatively affect the charm of the investment in the market of the neighboring shopping area. The study, now, understands that housing with a feature of consumers' goods and neighboring shopping area with a feature of investment goods would not have great concern with each other as they are observed to be two different markets from an aspect of interactionism.

Estimate the Period and Cost of Projects by Estimating the Conflict Index - Concentrated on the Apartment Reconstruction Project - (갈등지수 산정에 의한 사업기간 및 비용 예측 - 공동주택 재건축사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Ro-Na;Lee, Hak-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2012
  • The apartment reconstruction projects have the proper functions such as residential environment improvement and the new housing allocation system; however, intention of the projects are distorted by the combination of factors, like failure of relocation of the original occupants and income redistribution, speculation in real estate, sharp rise in housing price, disputation between various interested parties, inadequate system and etc and it makes the projects unable to go well. Disputations and litigations are due to spread of the small conflict. As a result of the problems, it could not going smoothly and that lead to increase or stop the period and cost. This study is to estimate the period and cost using the conflict index so as to prevent and solve the problem which is among the conflict in the reverse functions. The conflict index has estimated focus on the conflict impact and the period and cost has been estimated using an variable independent including the conflict index. Also, estimated the conflict index and estimate of the period and cost are able to succeed with a minimum of disputation and money.