• 제목/요약/키워드: rare events

검색결과 162건 처리시간 0.03초

다수기 PSA 수행을 위한 새로운 정량화 방법 (A New Quantification Method for Multi-Unit Probabilistic Safety Assessment)

  • 박성규;정우식
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this paper is to suggest a new quantification method for multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) that removes the overestimation error caused by the existing delete-term approximation (DTA) based quantification method. So far, for the actual plant PSA model quantification, a fault tree with negates have been solved by the DTA method. It is well known that the DTA method induces overestimated core damage frequency (CDF) of nuclear power plant (NPP). If a PSA fault tree has negates and non-rare events, the overestimation in CDF drastically increases. Since multi-unit seismic PSA model has plant level negates and many non-rare events in the fault tree, it should be very carefully quantified in order to avoid CDF overestimation. Multi-unit PSA fault tree has normal gates and negates that represent each NPP status. The NPP status means core damage or non-core damage state of individual NPPs. The non-core damage state of a NPP is modeled in the fault tree by using a negate (a NOT gate). Authors reviewed and compared (1) quantification methods that generate exact or approximate Boolean solutions from a fault tree, (2) DTA method generating approximate Boolean solution by solving negates in a fault tree, and (3) probability calculation methods from the Boolean solutions generated by exact quantification methods or DTA method. Based on the review and comparison, a new intersection removal by probability (IRBP) method is suggested in this study for the multi-unit PSA. If the IRBP method is adopted, multi-unit PSA fault tree can be quantified without the overestimation error that is caused by the direct application of DTA method. That is, the extremely overestimated CDF can be avoided and accurate CDF can be calculated by using the IRBP method. The accuracy of the IRBP method was validated by simple multi-unit PSA models. The necessity of the IRBP method was demonstrated by the actual plant multi-unit seismic PSA models.

언어의 공기관계 분석을 위한 임의화검증의 응용 (Applying Randomization Tests to Collocation Analyses in Large Corpora)

  • 양경숙;김희영
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.583-595
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    • 2005
  • 언어의 공기관계를 파악하는 데는 여러 가지 연관성 통계량들이 이용된다. 그러나 일부 통계량을 제외한 나머지 통계량들은 분포가 알려져 있지 않아 정작 통계량 값을 구하고도 명확한 설명을 하지 못하는 경우가 있다. 따라서 언어의 공기관계 분석을 위해서 정규근사나 t통계량을 이용하여 가설검증을 하는 경우가 많다. 그러나 공기관계에 있는 어휘빈도가 전체 빈도에서 차지하는 백분율이 매우 작기 때문에 정규근사에는 무리가 있어 보인다. 따라서 본 논문은 여러 논문에서 자주 언급되는 연관성 통계량의 특성을 임의화검증(randomization test)을 통해 고찰함으로써 계량언어학의 연어분석에서 데이터의 특성을 고려하여 보다 정확하게 언어의 공기관계를 이해할 수 있도록 도모하고자한다.

Meta-analysis on risk stratification of malignant ventricular tachyarrhythmic events in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

  • Roh, Young-Eun;Jang, Hyun Ji;Cho, Min-Jung
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.208-215
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    • 2017
  • Background: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a cardiomyopathy characterized by predominant right ventricular fibro-fatty replacement, right ventricular dysfunction and ventricular arrhythmias. It is a rare but important cause of sudden cardiac death in children and young adults. A meta-analysis on risk stratification of major ventricular tachyarrhythmic events indicating the need for implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in ARVC was performed. Methods: The pubmed database was searched from its inception to May 2015. Of the 433 citations identified, 12 were included in this meta-analysis. Data regarding major ventricular tachyarrhythmic events were retrieved in 817 subjects from the studies. For the variables, a combined odds ratio (OR) was calculated using a fixed-effects meta-analysis. Results: Extensive right ventricular dysfunction (OR, 2.44), ventricular late potential (OR, 1.66), inducible ventricular tachyarrhythmia during electrophysiology study (OR, 3.67), non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (OR, 3.78), and history of fatal event/sustained VT (OR, 5.66) identified as significant risk factors (p<0.0001). Conclusion: This meta-analysis shows that extensive right ventricular dysfunction, ventricular late potential, inducible ventricular tachyarrhythmia during electrophysiological study, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and history of sustained ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation are consistently reported risk factors of major ventricular tachyarrhythmic events indicating implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in patients with ARVC.

Analysis of the Sohyeon-Donggungilgi Records of Solar Halo Observations

  • Hyun, Jaeyeon;Mihn, Byeong-Hee;Lee, Ki-Won;Kim, Sang Hyuk;Bahk, Uhn Mee
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제46권2호
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    • pp.65.1-65.1
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    • 2021
  • The Donggungilgi (東宮日記) is the daily records of the Siganwon (侍講院), which was a royal office in the Joseon dynasty that took charge of the education for the crown prince who dwelled in the Donggung (East Palace). This literature contains records of meteorological and astronomical observations as well as educational matters. The Sohyeon-Donggungilgi (昭顯東宮日記) includes records from 1625 to 1645, when Prince Sohyeon, the first son of King Injo (仁祖), was the crown prince. We investigate the records of solar halo observations in the Sohyeon-Donggungilgi. For consistency, we restrict our investigation to the period before the second Manchu invasion of Korea (i.e., 1625 to 1635). We extract 2,684 records and classify them into ten events according to the terms in their descriptions. The largest and smallest number of observation records are for the Hun (暈) and Geuk (戟) events (1,794 and 7 records, respectively). To verify what each event represents in modern atmospheric terms, we refer to historical documents of the Seoungwanji (書雲觀志, Treaties on the Bureau of Astronomy) and Cheonmundaeseong (天文大成, Great Achievements in Astronomy). We also calculate the solar altitude based on the observation hour and compare the descriptions to compute simulations provided by Arbeitskreis Meteore e.V.. We find that the descriptions of the Hun, Junghun (重暈), Yi (珥), and Baekhonggwanil (白虹貫日) events indicate a 22˚ halo, 22˚ and 46˚ halos, a parhelion, and a parhelic circle, respectively, Alternatively, we estimate that the Gwan (冠), Dae (戴), Bae (背), Li (履), and Gyohun (交暈) events describe arcs tangent to a 22˚ or 46˚ halo such as a upper or lower tangent arc, a circumzenithal arc, or a parry arc. We suggest that further studies are required for the Geuk event because the descriptions of this event differ from both documents referred to this study. In the sense that the number of observation records of the Geuk event is the smallest, however, this event may describe a rare phenomenon. We believe that this work will contribute to the study of historical records of solar or lunar halos.

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Why More Flood Disasters are Occurring (New Zealand Examples & Solutions)

  • Smart, G.M.;Mckerchar, A.I.
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2008
  • Most New Zealanders reside in coastal regions and four of the larger cities are situated on active floodplains. There have been many recent storm events with rainfall AEPs of 1/150 or rarer and there have been recent flood-related disasters. Insurance claim statistics indicate that the frequency of floods is increasing. Such statistics are alarming local government authorities, insurance companies and populations in low-lying areas. The underlying physical and hydrologic causes of the flood disasters are investigated. It is found that the present numbers of rare rainfall events are not unexpected and there does not appear to be any significant trend evident in the occurrence of river floods. What is revealed is that the river floods appear clustered in certain decades. The clusters do not occur at the same times in different parts of the county. Recently there have been more floods in the north of New Zealand which is where more of the population lives. Also, the increase in population has seen more houses built in locations prone to flooding. Thus the increase in flood-related insurance claims is attributed to more people getting in the way of floods, rather than an increase in the number of floods that have occurred.

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자기역사 구성에서의 SNS 게시물 기록 적용 연구 (A Study on the Utilization of SNS Post Records in Self-History Composition)

  • 류한조
    • 기록학연구
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    • 제64호
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    • pp.63-92
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    • 2020
  • SNS 게시물 기록은 개인기록의 일부이나 그 본질적 특성에 대해 다루어지지 않았다. 그간 기술적인 특성에 주로 주목하였으며 정체성이나 온라인 공간을 고려한 연구는 드물었다. 본 연구는 SNS 게시물이 온라인 정체성을 반영한 기록이며 온라인 및 온라인과 관련된 사건을 재현하는데 SNS 게시물 기록이 의미가 있음을 주장하였다. 자기역사의 관점에서 개인이 겪은 사건을 서사적 자아 관점에서 자기역사 구성을 제안하였으며, 이 과정에서 SNS 게시물 기록이 중요한 역할을 함을 주장하였다. 이를 위해 SNS의 매체적 특성과 개인의 활용방식을 함께 분석하였다.

HAZARD ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON-RELATED EXTERNAL EVENTS USING EXTREME VALUE THEORY

  • KIM, YOCHAN;JANG, SEUNG-CHEOL;LIM, TAE-JIN
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제47권1호
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2015
  • Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

ASTRONOMY WITH SMALL TELESCOPES

  • SINGH, K. YUGINDRO;MEITEI, I. ABLU;SINGH, S. AJITKUMAR;SINGH, R.K. BASANTAKUMAR
    • 천문학논총
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.741-743
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    • 2015
  • We have designed and built three cost effective observatories, in distinct models, which can house Schmidt-Cassegrain type small telescopes having aperture sizes up to 16 inches. Using the available small telescopes, we provided the people of Manipura State in the far north-east corner of India the opportunity to observe directly with their own eyes the rare, spectacular events of the solar eclipse of January 15, 2010, lunar eclipse of December 10, 2011 and the transit of Venus of June 6, 2012. Apart from sharing a platform with the public for astronomy education and popularization through public outreach programs such as workshops, seminars and night watch programs, we have also developed a laboratory infrastructure and gained expertise in observational techniques based on photoelectric photometry, CCD imaging, CCD photometry and spectroscopy. Our team has become a partner in the ongoing international 'Orion project' headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, USA which will be producing high quality photometric and spectroscopic data for five stars in the Orion constellation, namely Betelgeuse (alpha Orionis), Rigel (beta Orionis), Mintaka (delta Orionis), Alnilam (epsilon Orionis) and Alnitak (zeta Orionis). In the present paper, the authors would like to give a detailed report of their activities for the growth of astronomy in the state of Manipur, India.

전통 가로공간의 리미날리티적 성향에 의한 페스티벌적 특성 분석 - 중국의 <청명상하도(淸明上河圖)>에 나타난 가로공간을 중심으로 - (The Study on the Characteristics of Festival Caused by the Liminality Tendency in the Traditional Street Space. - Based on the analysis on the Chinese painting -)

  • 로목단;이인희
    • 대한건축학회논문집:계획계
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    • 제35권9호
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2019
  • Modern cities have been clustered with spaces defined by specific functions, while standardized with well-defined areas. The monopoly of the function reduces the publicity of the space and hinders people's daily communication. Street also be overwhelmed by the function of being a "passage", traditional streets were losing their liminality. In fact, the street was a place of meeting, a place of events, and a place of freedom to broaden the choices of behavior. The freedom to stop or walk on one'sits own, be attracted by unforeseen events that are available on traditional streets, has become rare on the streets of big cities. Life has become dull and monotonous, too, through the modelling of the street system. Cities have become grim as communities are cut off and fragmented. In today's big cities, public attention to the liminality of the traditional streets need to be aroused so that people could gather freely and have a festival time.

Theoretical approach for uncertainty quantification in probabilistic safety assessment using sum of lognormal random variables

  • Song, Gyun Seob;Kim, Man Cheol
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제54권6호
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    • pp.2084-2093
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    • 2022
  • Probabilistic safety assessment is widely used to quantify the risks of nuclear power plants and their uncertainties. When the lognormal distribution describes the uncertainties of basic events, the uncertainty of the top event in a fault tree is approximated with the sum of lognormal random variables after minimal cutsets are obtained, and rare-event approximation is applied. As handling complicated analytic expressions for the sum of lognormal random variables is challenging, several approximation methods, especially Monte Carlo simulation, are widely used in practice for uncertainty analysis. In this study, a theoretical approach for analyzing the sum of lognormal random variables using an efficient numerical integration method is proposed for uncertainty analysis in probability safety assessments. The change of variables from correlated random variables with a complicated region of integration to independent random variables with a unit hypercube region of integration is applied to obtain an efficient numerical integration. The theoretical advantages of the proposed method over other approximation methods are shown through a benchmark problem. The proposed method provides an accurate and efficient approach to calculate the uncertainty of the top event in probabilistic safety assessment when the uncertainties of basic events are described with lognormal random variables.