• 제목/요약/키워드: random scenario

검색결과 67건 처리시간 0.026초

불확실성을 고려한 기후변화 시나리오의 선정 (Selecting Climate Change Scenarios Reflecting Uncertainties)

  • 이재경;김영오
    • 대기
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.149-161
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    • 2012
  • Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.

Performance Analysis of Perturbation-based Privacy Preserving Techniques: An Experimental Perspective

  • Ritu Ratra;Preeti Gulia;Nasib Singh Gill
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제23권10호
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2023
  • In the present scenario, enormous amounts of data are produced every second. These data also contain private information from sources including media platforms, the banking sector, finance, healthcare, and criminal histories. Data mining is a method for looking through and analyzing massive volumes of data to find usable information. Preserving personal data during data mining has become difficult, thus privacy-preserving data mining (PPDM) is used to do so. Data perturbation is one of the several tactics used by the PPDM data privacy protection mechanism. In Perturbation, datasets are perturbed in order to preserve personal information. Both data accuracy and data privacy are addressed by it. This paper will explore and compare several perturbation strategies that may be used to protect data privacy. For this experiment, two perturbation techniques based on random projection and principal component analysis were used. These techniques include Improved Random Projection Perturbation (IRPP) and Enhanced Principal Component Analysis based Technique (EPCAT). The Naive Bayes classification algorithm is used for data mining approaches. These methods are employed to assess the precision, run time, and accuracy of the experimental results. The best perturbation method in the Nave-Bayes classification is determined to be a random projection-based technique (IRPP) for both the cardiovascular and hypothyroid datasets.

안전요원 배치 여부에 따른 무인운전 경전철의 운행중단 시간예측 연구 (A Study on Prediction of Suspension Time of Unmanned Light Rail according to Safety Personal Deployment)

  • 곽상록
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제38권1호
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2023
  • The number of unmanned light rail train operators is continuously increasing in Korea. In a failure event during an operation due to the nature of the unmanned operation, recovery is performed based on the remote control. However, if remote recovery is not feasible, safety personnel arrive at the train to resume the train operation. There are regulations on safety personnel and the suspension time of the train operation. However, there is currently no rule for safety personnel deployment. Currently, railway operating organizations operate in three scenarios: safety personnel on board trains, stationed at stations, and deployed at major stations. Four major factors influence the downtime for each emergency response scenario. However, these four influencing factors vary too much to predict results with simple calculations. In this study, four influencing factors were considered as random variables with high uncertainty. In addition, the Monte Carlo method was applied to each scenario for the safety personnel deployment to predict train service downtime. This study found a 17% difference in train service suspension by safety personnel deployment scenario. The results of this study can be used in setting service goals, such as standards for future safety personnel placement and frequency of service interruptions.

Multiple Linear Goal Programming Using Scenario Approach to Obtain Fuzzy Solution

  • Namatame, Takashi;Yamaguchi, Toshikazu
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 1998년도 The Third Asian Fuzzy Systems Symposium
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    • pp.512-516
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    • 1998
  • Fuzzy mathematical programming (FMP) can be treated an uncertainty condition using fuzzy concept. Further, it can be extended to the multiple objective (or goal) programming problem, naturally. But we feel that FMP have some shortcomings such as the fuzzy number in FMP is the one dimesional possibility set, so it can not be represented the relationship between them, and, in spite of FMP includes some (uncertainty) fuzzy paramenters, many alogrithms are only obtained a crisp solution.In this study, we propose a method of FMS. Our method use the scenario approach (or fuzzy random variables) to represent the relationship between fuzzy numbers, and can obtain the fuzzy solution.

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Terminal-based Dynamic Clustering Algorithm in Multi-Cell Cellular System

  • Ni, Jiqing;Fei, Zesong;Xing, Chengwen;Zhao, Di;Kuang, Jingming
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제6권9호
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    • pp.2086-2097
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    • 2012
  • A terminal-based dynamic clustering algorithm is proposed in a multi-cell scenario, where the user could select the cooperative BSs from the predetermined static base stations (BSs) set based on dynamic channel condition. First, the user transmission rate is derived based on linear precoding and per-cell feedback scheme. Then, the dynamic clustering algorithm can be implemented based on two criteria: (a) the transmission rate should meet the user requirement for quality of service (QoS); (b) the rate increment exceeds the predetermined constant threshold. By adopting random vector quantization (RVQ), the optimized number of cooperative BSs and the corresponding channel conditions are presented respectively. Numerical results are given and show that the performance of the proposed method can improve the system resources utilization effectively.

Exact Decoding Probability of Random Linear Network Coding for Tree Networks

  • Li, Fang;Xie, Min
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.714-727
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    • 2015
  • The hierarchical structure in networks is widely applied in many practical scenarios especially in some emergency cases. In this paper, we focus on a tree network with and without packet loss where one source sends data to n destinations, through m relay nodes employing random linear network coding (RLNC) over a Galois field in parallel transmission systems. We derive closed-form probability expressions of successful decoding at a destination node and at all destination nodes in this multicast scenario. For the convenience of computing, we also propose an upper bound for the failure probability. We then investigate the impact of the major parameters, i.e., the size of finite fields, the number of internal nodes, the number of sink nodes and the channel failure probability, on the decoding performance with simulation results. In addition, numerical results show that, under a fixed exact decoding probability, the required field size can be minimized. When failure decoding probabilities are given, the operation is simple and its complexity is low in a small finite field.

다지점 인공신경망을 이용한 한강수계 기후전망 (Han River Basin climate forecast using multi-site artificial neural network)

  • 강부식;문수진;김정중
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2011년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.371-371
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구에서는 한강유역 내 관측기간이 충분한 기상청 지상관측소 10개소를 선정하고 CCCma(Canadian Century for Climate modeling and analysis)에서 제공하는 자료에 대한 인공신경망기법 상세화 적용을 실시하였다. 인공신경망의 학습을 위해 CGCM3.1/T63 20C3M시나리오(reference scenario)의 22개 2D변수 중 물리적으로 민감도가 높다고 판단되는 GCM_Prec, huss, ps를 입력변수로 선정하였으며 인공신경망 학습기간은 1991년~1995년, 검증기간은 1996년~2000년, 예측기간은 2011년~2100년으로 A1B, A2 B1 시나리오 등 다양한 기후변화 시나리오를 통해 예측band를 제시하고자 하였다. 하지만 공간상관을 고려하기 위하여 각 관측소에 대하여 인공신경망 학습을 하는 경우 관측소간 spatial correlation 및 spatial cluster구현이 어렵기 때문에 Spatial Rectangular Pulse모형을 이용하고자 하였으나, 강수면적에 대한 scale의 결정이 어렵다는 단점을 확인 하고 본 연구에서는 Random Cascade 모형을 이용하여 ${\beta}$를 통한 강수면적 scale(rainy area fraction)을 결정하고자 하였다. Random Cascade모형의 기법은 격자단위의 downscaling기법으로 강수대의 공간적 형상을 재현하며 스케일에 비종속적인(scale-invariant)프랙탈 특성을 이용하여 매개변수를 최소화 할 수 있는 장점을 가진 기법으로 한강유역 1Km내외 강우장을 만들어 topographic effect를 첨가하고자 한다.

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A Novel GNSS Spoofing Detection Technique with Array Antenna-Based Multi-PRN Diversity

  • Lee, Young-Seok;Yeom, Jeong Seon;Noh, Jae Hee;Lee, Sang Jeong;Jung, Bang Chul
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.169-177
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we propose a novel global navigation satellite system (GNSS) spoofing detection technique through an array antenna-based direction of arrival (DoA) estimation of satellite and spoofer. Specifically, we consider a sophisticated GNSS spoofing attack scenario where the spoofer can accurately mimic the multiple pseudo-random number (PRN) signals since the spoofer has its own GNSS receiver and knows the location of the target receiver in advance. The target GNSS receiver precisely estimates the DoA of all PRN signals using compressed sensing-based orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) even with a small number of samples, and it performs spoofing detection from the DoA estimation results of all PRN signals. In addition, considering the initial situation of a sophisticated spoofing attack scenario, we designed the algorithm to have high spoofing detection performance regardless of the relative spoofing signal power. Therefore, we do not consider the assumption in which the power of the spoofing signal is about 3 dB greater than that of the authentic signal. Then, we introduce design parameters to get high true detection probability and low false alarm probability in tandem by considering the condition for the presence of signal sources and the proximity of the DoA between authentic signals. Through computer simulations, we compare the DoA estimation performance between the conventional signal direction estimation method and the OMP algorithm in few samples. Finally, we show in the sophisticated spoofing attack scenario that the proposed spoofing detection technique using OMP-based estimated DoA of all PRN signals outperforms the conventional spoofing detection scheme in terms of true detection and false alarm probability.

Decoding Brain States during Auditory Perception by Supervising Unsupervised Learning

  • Porbadnigk, Anne K.;Gornitz, Nico;Kloft, Marius;Muller, Klaus-Robert
    • Journal of Computing Science and Engineering
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.112-121
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    • 2013
  • The last years have seen a rise of interest in using electroencephalography-based brain computer interfacing methodology for investigating non-medical questions, beyond the purpose of communication and control. One of these novel applications is to examine how signal quality is being processed neurally, which is of particular interest for industry, besides providing neuroscientific insights. As for most behavioral experiments in the neurosciences, the assessment of a given stimulus by a subject is required. Based on an EEG study on speech quality of phonemes, we will first discuss the information contained in the neural correlate of this judgement. Typically, this is done by analyzing the data along behavioral responses/labels. However, participants in such complex experiments often guess at the threshold of perception. This leads to labels that are only partly correct, and oftentimes random, which is a problematic scenario for using supervised learning. Therefore, we propose a novel supervised-unsupervised learning scheme, which aims to differentiate true labels from random ones in a data-driven way. We show that this approach provides a more crisp view of the brain states that experimenters are looking for, besides discovering additional brain states to which the classical analysis is blind.