• 제목/요약/키워드: random errors

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Development of a Stochastic Precipitation Generation Model for Generating Multi-site Daily Precipitation (다지점 일강수 모의를 위한 추계학적 강수모의모형의 구축)

  • Jeong, Dae-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.5B
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    • pp.397-408
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    • 2009
  • In this study, a stochastic precipitation generation framework for simultaneous simulation of daily precipitation at multiple sites is presented. The precipitation occurrence at individual sites is generated using hybrid-order Markov chain model which allows higher-order dependence for dry sequences. The precipitation amounts are reproduced using Anscombe residuals and gamma distributions. Multisite spatial correlations in the precipitation occurrence and amount series are represented with spatially correlated random numbers. The proposed model is applied for a network of 17 locations in the middle of Korean peninsular. Evaluation statistics are reported by generating 50 realizations of the precipitation of length equal to the observed record. The analysis of results show that the model reproduces wet day number, wet and dry day spell, and mean and standard deviation of wet day amount fairly well. However, mean values of 50 realizations of generated precipitation series yield around 23% Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of the average value of observed maximum numbers of consecutive wet and dry days and 17% RMSE of the average value of observed annual maximum precipitations for return periods of 100 and 200 years. The provided model also reproduces spatial correlations in observed precipitation occurrence and amount series accurately.

An Improved Structural Reliability Analysis using Moving Least Squares Approximation (이동최소제곱근사법을 이용한 개선된 구조 신뢰성 해석)

  • Kang, Soo-Chang;Koh, Hyun-Moo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6A
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    • pp.835-842
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    • 2008
  • The response surface method (RSM) is widely adopted for the structural reliability analysis because of its numerical efficiency. However, the RSM is still time consuming for large-scale applications and sometimes shows large errors in the calculation of sensitivity of reliability index with respect to random variables. Therefore, this study proposes a new RSM in which moving least squares (MLS) approximation is applied. Least squares approximation generally used in the common RSM gives equal weight to the coefficients of the response surface function (RSF). On the other hand, The MLS approximation gives higher weight to the experimental points closer to the design point, which yields the RSF more similar to the limit state at the design point. In the procedure of the proposed method, a linear RSF is constructed initially and then a quadratic RSF is formed using the axial experimental points selected from the reduced region where the design point is likely to exist. The RSF is updated successively by adding one more experimental point to the previously sampled experimental points. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, mathematical problems and ten-bar truss are considered as numerical examples. As a result, the proposed method shows better accuracy and computational efficiency than the common RSM.

Genetic parameters of milk and lactation curve traits of dairy cattle from research farms in Thailand

  • Pangmao, Santi;Thomson, Peter C.;Khatkar, Mehar S.
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.1499-1511
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    • 2022
  • Objective: This study was aimed to estimate the genetic parameters, including genetic and phenotypic correlations, of milk yield, lactation curve traits and milk composition of Thai dairy cattle from three government research farms. Methods: The data of 25,789 test-day milk yield and milk composition records of 1,468 cattle from lactation 1 to 3 of Holstein Friesian (HF) and crossbred HF dairy cattle calved between 1990 and 2015 from three government research farms in Thailand were analysed. 305-day milk yield was estimated by the Wood model and a test interval method. The Wood model was used for estimating cumulative 305-day milk yield, peak milk yield, days to peak milk yield and persistency. Genetic parameters were estimated using linear mixed models with herd, breed group, year and season of calving as fixed effects, and animals linked to a pedigree as random effects, together with a residual error. Univariate models were used to estimate variance components, heritability, estimated breeding values (EBVs) and repeatability of each trait, while pairwise bivariate models were used to estimate covariance components and correlations between traits in the same lactation and in the same trait across lactations. Results: The heritability of 305-day milk yield, peak milk yield and protein percentage have moderate to high estimates ranging from 0.19 to 0.45 while days to peak milk yield, persistency and fat percentage have low heritability ranging from 0.08 to 0.14 in lactation 1 cows. Further, heritability of most traits considered was higher in lactation 1 compared with lactations 2 and 3. For cows in lactation 1, high genetic correlations were found between 305-day milk yield and peak milk yield (0.86±0.07) and days to peak milk yield and persistency (0.99±0.02) while estimates of genetic correlations between the remaining traits were imprecise due to the high standard errors. The genetic correlations within the traits across lactation were high. There was no consistent trend of EBVs for most traits in the first lactation over the study period. Conclusion: Both the Wood model and test interval method can be used for milk yield estimates in these herds. However, the Wood model has advantages over the test interval method as it can be fitted using fewer test-day records and the estimated model parameters can be used to derive estimates of other lactation curve parameters. Milk yield, peak milk yield and protein percentage can be improved by a selection and mating program while days to peak milk yield, persistency and fat percentage can be improved by including into a selection index.

An Integrated Model based on Genetic Algorithms for Implementing Cost-Effective Intelligent Intrusion Detection Systems (비용효율적 지능형 침입탐지시스템 구현을 위한 유전자 알고리즘 기반 통합 모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Kim, Ji-Hun;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2012
  • These days, the malicious attacks and hacks on the networked systems are dramatically increasing, and the patterns of them are changing rapidly. Consequently, it becomes more important to appropriately handle these malicious attacks and hacks, and there exist sufficient interests and demand in effective network security systems just like intrusion detection systems. Intrusion detection systems are the network security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. Conventional intrusion detection systems have generally been designed using the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. However, they cannot handle new or unknown patterns of the network attacks, although they perform very well under the normal situation. As a result, recent studies on intrusion detection systems use artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. For a long time, researchers have adopted and tested various kinds of artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines to detect intrusions on the network. However, most of them have just applied these techniques singularly, even though combining the techniques may lead to better detection. With this reason, we propose a new integrated model for intrusion detection. Our model is designed to combine prediction results of four different binary classification models-logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and support vector machines (SVM), which may be complementary to each other. As a tool for finding optimal combining weights, genetic algorithms (GA) are used. Our proposed model is designed to be built in two steps. At the first step, the optimal integration model whose prediction error (i.e. erroneous classification rate) is the least is generated. After that, in the second step, it explores the optimal classification threshold for determining intrusions, which minimizes the total misclassification cost. To calculate the total misclassification cost of intrusion detection system, we need to understand its asymmetric error cost scheme. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, total misclassification cost is more affected by FNE rather than FPE. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 10,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. Also, we compared the results from our model with the results from single techniques to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell R4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on GA outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that the proposed model outperformed all the other comparative models in the total misclassification cost perspective. Consequently, it is expected that our study may contribute to build cost-effective intelligent intrusion detection systems.

Estimation of Water Quality Index for Coastal Areas in Korea Using GOCI Satellite Data Based on Machine Learning Approaches (GOCI 위성영상과 기계학습을 이용한 한반도 연안 수질평가지수 추정)

  • Jang, Eunna;Im, Jungho;Ha, Sunghyun;Lee, Sanggyun;Park, Young-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.221-234
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    • 2016
  • In Korea, most industrial parks and major cities are located in coastal areas, which results in serious environmental problems in both coastal land and ocean. In order to effectively manage such problems especially in coastal ocean, water quality should be monitored. As there are many factors that influence water quality, the Korean Government proposed an integrated Water Quality Index (WQI) based on in situmeasurements of ocean parameters(bottom dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a concentration, secchi disk depth, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and dissolved inorganic phosphorus) by ocean division identified based on their ecological characteristics. Field-measured WQI, however, does not provide spatial continuity over vast areas. Satellite remote sensing can be an alternative for identifying WQI for surface water. In this study, two schemes were examined to estimate coastal WQI around Korea peninsula using in situ measurements data and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) satellite imagery from 2011 to 2013 based on machine learning approaches. Scheme 1 calculates WQI using estimated water quality-related factors using GOCI reflectance data, and scheme 2 estimates WQI using GOCI band reflectance data and basic products(chlorophyll-a, suspended sediment, colored dissolved organic matter). Three machine learning approaches including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and a modified regression tree(Cubist) were used. Results show that estimation of secchi disk depth produced the highest accuracy among the ocean parameters, and RF performed best regardless of water quality-related factors. However, the accuracy of WQI from scheme 1 was lower than that from scheme 2 due to the estimation errors inherent from water quality-related factors and the uncertainty of bottom dissolved oxygen. In overall, scheme 2 appears more appropriate for estimating WQI for surface water in coastal areas and chlorophyll-a concentration was identified the most contributing factor to the estimation of WQI.

Matching Points Filtering Applied Panorama Image Processing Using SURF and RANSAC Algorithm (SURF와 RANSAC 알고리즘을 이용한 대응점 필터링 적용 파노라마 이미지 처리)

  • Kim, Jeongho;Kim, Daewon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.144-159
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    • 2014
  • Techniques for making a single panoramic image using multiple pictures are widely studied in many areas such as computer vision, computer graphics, etc. The panorama image can be applied to various fields like virtual reality, robot vision areas which require wide-angled shots as an useful way to overcome the limitations such as picture-angle, resolutions, and internal informations of an image taken from a single camera. It is so much meaningful in a point that a panoramic image usually provides better immersion feeling than a plain image. Although there are many ways to build a panoramic image, most of them are using the way of extracting feature points and matching points of each images for making a single panoramic image. In addition, those methods use the RANSAC(RANdom SAmple Consensus) algorithm with matching points and the Homography matrix to transform the image. The SURF(Speeded Up Robust Features) algorithm which is used in this paper to extract featuring points uses an image's black and white informations and local spatial informations. The SURF is widely being used since it is very much robust at detecting image's size, view-point changes, and additionally, faster than the SIFT(Scale Invariant Features Transform) algorithm. The SURF has a shortcoming of making an error which results in decreasing the RANSAC algorithm's performance speed when extracting image's feature points. As a result, this may increase the CPU usage occupation rate. The error of detecting matching points may role as a critical reason for disqualifying panoramic image's accuracy and lucidity. In this paper, in order to minimize errors of extracting matching points, we used $3{\times}3$ region's RGB pixel values around the matching points' coordinates to perform intermediate filtering process for removing wrong matching points. We have also presented analysis and evaluation results relating to enhanced working speed for producing a panorama image, CPU usage rate, extracted matching points' decreasing rate and accuracy.

Evaluation of the Usefulness of Exactrac in Image-guided Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Cancer (두경부암의 영상유도방사선치료에서 ExacTrac의 유용성 평가)

  • Baek, Min Gyu;Kim, Min Woo;Ha, Se Min;Chae, Jong Pyo;Jo, Guang Sub;Lee, Sang Bong
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.32
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: In modern radiotherapy technology, several methods of image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) are used to deliver accurate doses to tumor target locations and normal organs, including CBCT (Cone Beam Computed Tomography) and other devices, ExacTrac System, other than CBCT equipped with linear accelerators. In previous studies comparing the two systems, positional errors were analysed rearwards using Offline-view or evaluated only with a Yaw rotation with the X, Y, and Z axes. In this study, when using CBCT and ExacTrac to perform 6 Degree of the Freedom(DoF) Online IGRT in a treatment center with two equipment, the difference between the set-up calibration values seen in each system, the time taken for patient set-up, and the radiation usefulness of the imaging device is evaluated. Materials and Methods: In order to evaluate the difference between mobile calibrations and exposure radiation dose, the glass dosimetry and Rando Phantom were used for 11 cancer patients with head circumference from March to October 2017 in order to assess the difference between mobile calibrations and the time taken from Set-up to shortly before IGRT. CBCT and ExacTrac System were used for IGRT of all patients. An average of 10 CBCT and ExacTrac images were obtained per patient during the total treatment period, and the difference in 6D Online Automation values between the two systems was calculated within the ROI setting. In this case, the area of interest designation in the image obtained from CBCT was fixed to the same anatomical structure as the image obtained through ExacTrac. The difference in positional values for the six axes (SI, AP, LR; Rotation group: Pitch, Roll, Rtn) between the two systems, the total time taken from patient set-up to just before IGRT, and exposure dose were measured and compared respectively with the RandoPhantom. Results: the set-up error in the phantom and patient was less than 1mm in the translation group and less than 1.5° in the rotation group, and the RMS values of all axes except the Rtn value were less than 1mm and 1°. The time taken to correct the set-up error in each system was an average of 256±47.6sec for IGRT using CBCT and 84±3.5sec for ExacTrac, respectively. Radiation exposure dose by IGRT per treatment was measured at 37 times higher than ExacTrac in CBCT and ExacTrac at 2.468mGy and 0.066mGy at Oral Mucosa among the 7 measurement locations in the head and neck area. Conclusion: Through 6D online automatic positioning between the CBCT and ExacTrac systems, the set-up error was found to be less than 1mm, 1.02°, including the patient's movement (random error), as well as the systematic error of the two systems. This error range is considered to be reasonable when considering that the PTV Margin is 3mm during the head and neck IMRT treatment in the present study. However, considering the changes in target and risk organs due to changes in patient weight during the treatment period, it is considered to be appropriately used in combination with CBCT.

Evaluation on the Accuracy of the PPS in the Proton Therapy System, Which Uses the Self Made QA Phantom (자체 제작한 QA Phantom을 이용한 양성자 PPS (Patient Positioning System)의 정확성 평가)

  • Lee, Ji-Eun;Kim, Jae-Won;Kang, Dong-Yoon;Choi, Jae-Hyeok;Yeom, Du-Seok
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: The process of the proton treatment is done by comparing the DRR and DIPS anatomic structure to find the correction factor and use the PPS to use this factor in the treatment. For the accuracy of the patient set up, the PPS uses a 6 axis system to move. Therefore, there needs to be an evaluation for the accuracy between the PPS moving materialization and DIPS correction factor. In order to do this, we will use a self made PPS QA Phantom to measure the accuracy of the PPS. Materials and Methods: We set up a PPS QA Phantom at the center to which a lead marker is attached, which will act instead of the patient anatomic structure. We will use random values to create the 6 axis motions and move the PPS QA Phantom. Then we attain a DIPS image and compare with the DRR image in order to evaluate the accuracy of the correction factor. Results: The average correction factor, after moving the PPS QA Phantom's X, Y, Z axis coordinates together from 1~5 cm, 1 cm at a time, and coming back to the center, are 0.04 cm, 0.026 cm, 0.022 cm, $0.22^{\circ}$, $0.24^{\circ}$, $0^{\circ}$ on the PPS 6 axis. The average correction rate when moving the 6way movement coordinates all from 1 to 2 were 0.06 cm, 0.01 cm, 0.02 cm, $0.1^{\circ}$, $0.3^{\circ}$, $0^{\circ}$ when moved 1 and 0.02 cm, 0.04 cm, 0.01 cm, $0.3^{\circ}$, $0.5^{\circ}$, $0^{\circ}$ when moved 2. Conclusion: After evaluating the correction rates when they come back to the center, we could tell that the Lateral, Longitudinal, Vertical were all in the acceptable scope of 0.5 cm and Rotation, Pitch, Roll were all in the acceptable scope of $1^{\circ}$. Still, for a more accurate proton therapy treatment, we must try to further enhance the image of the DIPS matching system, and exercise regular QA on the equipment to reduce the current rate of mechanical errors.

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An Intelligent Intrusion Detection Model Based on Support Vector Machines and the Classification Threshold Optimization for Considering the Asymmetric Error Cost (비대칭 오류비용을 고려한 분류기준값 최적화와 SVM에 기반한 지능형 침입탐지모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.157-173
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    • 2011
  • As the Internet use explodes recently, the malicious attacks and hacking for a system connected to network occur frequently. This means the fatal damage can be caused by these intrusions in the government agency, public office, and company operating various systems. For such reasons, there are growing interests and demand about the intrusion detection systems (IDS)-the security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. The intrusion detection models that have been applied in conventional IDS are generally designed by modeling the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. These kinds of intrusion detection models perform well under the normal situations. However, they show poor performance when they meet a new or unknown pattern of the network attacks. For this reason, several recent studies try to adopt various artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. Especially, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have popularly been applied in the prior studies because of its superior prediction accuracy. However, ANNs have some intrinsic limitations such as the risk of overfitting, the requirement of the large sample size, and the lack of understanding the prediction process (i.e. black box theory). As a result, the most recent studies on IDS have started to adopt support vector machine (SVM), the classification technique that is more stable and powerful compared to ANNs. SVM is known as a relatively high predictive power and generalization capability. Under this background, this study proposes a novel intelligent intrusion detection model that uses SVM as the classification model in order to improve the predictive ability of IDS. Also, our model is designed to consider the asymmetric error cost by optimizing the classification threshold. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, when considering total cost of misclassification in IDS, it is more reasonable to assign heavier weights on FNE rather than FPE. Therefore, we designed our proposed intrusion detection model to optimize the classification threshold in order to minimize the total misclassification cost. In this case, conventional SVM cannot be applied because it is designed to generate discrete output (i.e. a class). To resolve this problem, we used the revised SVM technique proposed by Platt(2000), which is able to generate the probability estimate. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 1,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. In addition, the SVM model was compared with the logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), and ANN to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell 4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on SVM outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that our model reduced the total misclassification cost compared to the ANN-based intrusion detection model. As a result, it is expected that the intrusion detection model proposed in this paper would not only enhance the performance of IDS, but also lead to better management of FNE.

Can We Hear the Shape of a Noise Source\ulcorner (소음원의 모양을 들어서 상상할 수 있을까\ulcorner)

  • Kim, Yang-Hann
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.586-603
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    • 2004
  • One of the subtle problems that make noise control difficult for engineers is “the invisibility of noise or sound.” The visual image of noise often helps to determine an appropriate means for noise control. There have been many attempts to fulfill this rather challenging objective. Theoretical or numerical means to visualize the sound field have been attempted and as a result, a great deal of progress has been accomplished, for example in the field of visualization of turbulent noise. However, most of the numerical methods are not quite ready to be applied practically to noise control issues. In the meantime, fast progress has made it possible instrumentally by using multiple microphones and fast signal processing systems, although these systems are not perfect but are useful. The state of the art system is recently available but still has many problematic issues : for example, how we can implement the visualized noise field. The constructed noise or sound picture always consists of bias and random errors, and consequently it is often difficult to determine the origin of the noise and the spatial shape of noise, as highlighted in the title. The first part of this paper introduces a brief history, which is associated with “sound visualization,” from Leonardo da Vinci's famous drawing on vortex street (Fig. 1) to modern acoustic holography and what has been accomplished by a line or surface array. The second part introduces the difficulties and the recent studies. These include de-Dopplerization and do-reverberation methods. The former is essential for visualizing a moving noise source, such as cars or trains. The latter relates to what produces noise in a room or closed space. Another mar issue associated this sound/noise visualization is whether or not Ivecan distinguish mutual dependence of noise in space : for example, we are asked to answer the question, “Can we see two birds singing or one bird with two beaks?"