• Title/Summary/Keyword: projection of forest area

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A Study on Population Change and Projection in Korea Mountainous Area (산촌지역 인구변동의 특성 분석과 장래 추계)

  • Min, Kyung-Taek;Kim, Myeong-Eun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.103 no.4
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    • pp.670-678
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    • 2014
  • This paper analyzes the characteristics of population change and makes the population projection in the mountainous area of Korea. Mountainous areas are defined as local towns (eup or myeon) with forest area more than 70 percent of land area, population density less than 111 people per square kilometer, and plowland area less than 21 percent of land area. The population in mountainous areas has decreased dramatically, while the ageing index has increased over the past two decades. To make the population projection, the cohort-change ratios method is applied. The results revealed that a multitude of young people aged 10 to 39 moved to cities to find education and job chance and some people aged 40 and over moved to mountainous areas as the trends of urban-to-rural migration. This continuing trend will culminate in 680 thousand people in population and 1,035 of ageing index in 2030, which will lead to the unequal land development and inefficient forest management. Thus, policy makers need to develop stimulus plans to revitalize and stabilize the economy of mountainous areas.

A Sudy on Population Change and Projection in Korean Mountainous Area (우리나라 산촌의 인구 추이와 미래 전망)

  • Chang, Chuyoun;Bae, Jae Soo;Seol, Ara
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2019
  • This paper analyzed the characteristics of population change from 2000 to 2018 in 466 mountainous areas using resident registration data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, and projected the population in those areas through 2050 with the cohort change ratio method. The population had dramatically decreased from 2000 to 2009. With the slowing population decrease after 2010, the population has increased gradually since 2014. Especially the population of ages over 65 in 2018 had increased 34% compared to 2000, while the working age population had decreased 29%. This shows that population aging becomes serious problems in the mountainous area. Assuming the cohort change ratios from 2010 to 2015 and child-woman ratio in 2015 remain constant, it appeared that the projected population of the mountainous area dropped to 1.26 million in 2030 and 820,000 in 2050. It is expected to have a population with an inverted pyramid structure showing a gender imbalance with more females in 60's and 70's. Although it continues to show the recent population growth in mountainous area, population in mountainous area is expected to consistently decrease. Therefore, it is required to develop policies and strategies to promote an influx of people into mountainous area for maintaining functionality and sustainability of mountainous areas.

Estimation of Forest Biomass Arising from Forest Management Operation II - Estimation based on the projection of forest areas - (숲가꾸기 사업에서의 산림 바이오매스 발생량 추정(제2보) - 산림면적 전망에 의한 추정 -)

  • Ahn, Byeong-Il;Lee, Kyun-Shik;Kim, Chul-Hwan;Lee, Ji-Young
    • Journal of Korea Technical Association of The Pulp and Paper Industry
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2009
  • Forest biomass can be used as various types of raw materials such as pulp, wood pellets, solid charcoals and so on. This paper estimates the nation wide amount of forest biomass based on the projection of forest areas for its effective and economic use. Several trend equations are used in projecting the forest areas. In 2009, the forest biomass arising from thinning is estimated be 6,591,575 $m^3$. The estimates of forest biomass in 2015 and 2018 are 6,375,627 $m^3$ and 6,284,779 $m^3$, respectively. Since the forest areas are projected to be declining, the biomass generated by thinning will decrease. This implies that the new alternatives for supplying raw materials for biofuels must be prepared before then.

Derivation of Basal Area Projection Function for Forest Plantation Using Medium (3-5years) Measurement Cycles (중간(中間) 측정(測定) 주기(週期) (3-5년)를 이용(利用)한 인공림(人工林)의 흉고단면적(胸高斷面績) 추정(推定) 함수(函數)의 유도(誘導))

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.89 no.4
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    • pp.463-469
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    • 2000
  • Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesd Mirb. Franco) is highly regarded as a commercial timber species throughout the world in part due to its fast growth relative to many other species. In this study, basal area per hectare equation for Douglas-fir plantations in Southland of New Zealand has been developed based on medium measurement cycles of permanent sample plots data set. The function was developed using the algebraic difference equation method, and various sigmoid-shaped projection equations were used. Parameter estimation was obtained by non-linear routine of the SAS. As a result, of the functions tested a variant of the Schumacher polymorphic function including site index and thinning term as predictor variables showed the higher precision of the fitting. The results indicate that site index is positively correlated with basal area growth. And the thinning term was found to be useful to increase precision of the model.

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Predicting Tree Felling Direction Using Path Distance Back Link in Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

  • Rhyma Purnamasayangsukasih Parman;Mohd Hasmadi, Ismail;Norizah Kamarudin;Nur Faziera Yaakub
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.203-212
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    • 2023
  • Directional felling is a felling method practised by the Forestry Department in Peninsular Malaysia as prescribed in Field Work Manual (1997) for Selective Management Systems (SMS) in forest harvesting. Determining the direction of tree felling in Peninsular Malaysia is conducted during the pre-felling inventory 1 to 2 years before the felling operation. This study aimed to predict and analyze the direction of tree felling using the vector-based path distance back link method in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and compare it with the felling direction observed on the ground. The study area is at Balah Forest Reserve, Kelantan, Peninsular Malaysia. A Path Distance Back Link (spatial analyst) function in ArcGIS Pro 3.0 was used in predicting tree felling direction. Meanwhile, a binary classification was used to compare the felling direction estimated using GIS and the tree felling direction observed on the ground. Results revealed that 61.3% of 31 trees predicted using the vector-based projection method were similar to the felling direction observed on the ground. It is important to note that dynamic changes of natural constraints might occur in the middle of tree felling operation, such as weather problems, wind speed, and unpredicted tree falling direction.

Selection of Growth projection Intervals for Improving Parameter Estimation of Stand Growth Model (임분(林分) 생장(生長) 모델의 모수(母數) 추정(推定) 능력(能力) 향상(向上)을 위(爲)한 생장(生長) 측정간격(測定間隔)의 선택(選擇))

  • Lee, Sang Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.87 no.1
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    • pp.40-49
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    • 1998
  • This study aimed to provide a strategy for selecting an adequate combination of growth intervals(i.e. times between age $T_1$ and age $T_2$) to be used to improve the reality of the growth equation through obtaining better precision of parameter estimates. Variety of growth functions were fitted to the data and one equation which best fitted the data was chosen for the analysis. A modified Schumacher projection equation, selected as a best equation, that included dummy variables representing locality as a predictor variable was fitted for basal area and height equations with nonoverlapping growth interval and all possible growth interval data sets of Douglas-fir(Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb.Franco). The data were measured in all parts of the South Island of New Zealand. It was found that the precision of parameter estimates was increased in both basal area and height equations by using data set which contained a range of measurement intervals from short to long term.

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Individual-based Competition Analysis for Secondary Forest in Northeast China

  • Li, Fengri;Chen, Dongsheng;Lu, Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.97 no.5
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    • pp.501-507
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    • 2008
  • The data of crown width with 4 directions, DBH, tree height, and coordinate for sample trees were collected from 30 permanent sample plots in secondary fore st of the Maoershan Experimental Forestry Farm, Northeast China. In this paper, the competition of individual trees in stand were discussed for secondary forest by using iterative Hegyi competition index and crown overlap index that represented the competitive and cooperative interactions among neighboring trees. Active competitors of subject tree in the competition zone were selected to calculate the iterative competition index. Using the results of crown classification based on the equal crown projection area, a new distance dependent competition index called crown overlap index (COI) was developed for secondary forest. The COI performed well in describing the crown competition rather than crown competition factor (CCF). The individual-based competition index discussed in this paper will provide more precise for developing individual tree growth models for secondary forest and it can also use to adjust the stand structure for spatial optimal management.

Aboveground Carbon Storage of Quercus acuta Stands by Thinning Intensity (붉가시나무 간벌강도에 따른 지상부 탄소고정량에 관한 연구)

  • Lee Sang-Tae;Son Yeong-Mo;Lee Kyung-Jae;Hwang Jaehong;Choi Jae-Chae;Shin Hyeon-Chul;Park Nam-Chang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.282-288
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    • 2005
  • This study was carried out to estimate aboveground carbon contents associated with four years of thinning treatment of Quercus acuta stands in Wando Arboretum, Jeonnam. Stand thinning was conducted over four years using stand table projection for each thinning treatment. Ten sample trees were cut in the surveyed area. Estimation of aboveground biomass was made using the equation model $W=aD+bD^2$ where W is oven dry weight and D is DBH in cm. The total aboveground biomass for each intensity treatment area was : control (148.4 ton/ha), light (105.6 ton/ha), moderate (68.7 ton/ha) and heavy (39.1 ton/ha). Aboveground carbon storage for Quercus acuta stands was found by multiplying dry weigh t (ton/ha) by 0.5. Carbon storage and increment after four years was: control (74.2 tonC/ha), light (52.8 tonC/ha), moderate (34.3 tonC/ha) and heavy thinning intensity area (38.2tonC/ha).

The Discrimination and Vegetation Structure of Several Mountainous Wetlands in Chung-ju and Around Area (충주 및 주변지역 산지습지의 판별 및 식생 구조)

  • Kim, Hyeong Guk;Jeong, Young Sun;Koo, Bon Hak
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2008
  • This study was surveyed to analyze vegetation structure of mountainous wetlands in Chung-ju city and around area from September to November, 2006. 6 sites of total 15 potential mountainous wetlands were discriminated throughout field survey. By classification system of mountainous wetlands presented in manual of forest wetlands research, types of wetlands were classified into slant and a flat. Many sites were covered with land plants as Pueraria thunbergiana and so on. To understand vegetation structure of mountainous wetlands, Height, DBH (diameter at breast height), DI (Dominance Index), Sociability and Constancy were surveyed and Based on this result, a projection chart was drawn. As results, Salix koreensis in tree layer and Persicaria thunbergii and Impatiens textori in herb layer were surveyed as broadly distributed species. This study is mainly focused on vegetation condition of mountainous wetlands. But, it will be needed studying on classification system of mountainous wetland type and functional assessment for conservation or management of wetlands.

Estimation of Diameter and Basal Area Growth Pattern for Thuja orientalis Stand Grown in Yeongcheon (영천 측백림의 직경 및 흉고단면적 생장추정)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Hoi-Seon;Kim, Hyun;Choi, Soo-Im;Cho, Young-Jin;Lim, Ho-Sub
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.96 no.1
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    • pp.29-33
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this research was to provide basic information of Thuja orientalis stand for prediction system, which consists of the best model of diameter and basal area. Data was from cores of 45 sample trees of Thuja orientalis stand that was designated as a natural monument (No. 62) in Yeongcheon, Chungbuk. Of the projection functions tested, polymorphic equation using the overlapping data showed higher precision of the fitting than anamorphic equation using. In diameter growth, Schumacher polymorphic equation of $D_2={\exp}({\ln}(D_1)(T_1/T_2)^{0.4495}+3.8535(1-(T_1/T_2)^{0.4495}))$, and in basal area growth, Schumacher polymorphic equation of $BA_2={\exp}({\ln}(BA_1)(T_1/T_2)^{0.1235}+11.3793(1-(T_1/T_2)^{0.1235}))$ showed the highest precision of the fitting among them. The equation, therefore, could be available as basic information for estimation of growth and management of Thuja orientalis stand.