• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.72-80
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• 2016

The market size of plant projects in overseas is so large that domestic EPC project contractors are actively seeking the overseas projects and then trying to meet completion plans since successful fulfillment of these projects can provide great opportunities for them to expand into new foreign markets. International EPC projects involve all of the uncertainties common to domestic projects as well as uncertainties specific to foreign projects including marine transportation, customs, regulations, nationality, culture and so on. When overseas project gets off-schedule, the resulting uncertainty may trigger unexpected exceptions and then critical effects to the project performance. It usually require much more time and costs to encounter these exceptions in foreign sites compared to domestic project sites. Therefore, an exception handling approach is required to manage exceptions effectively for successful project progress in foreign project sites. In this research, we proposed a methodology for prediction and evaluation of exceptions caused by risks in international EPC projects based on sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Networks. First, we identified project schedule risks and related exceptions, which may meet during the fulfillment of foreign EPC projects that is performed in a sequence of engineering, procurement, preparatory manufacture, foreign shipping, construction, inspection and modification activities, and affect project performance, using literature review and expert interviews. The impact of exceptions to the schedule delay were also identified. Second, we proposed a methodology to predict the occurrence of exceptions caused by project risks and evaluate them. Using sensitivity analysis, we can identify activities that critically affect schedule delay and need to focus by priority. Then, we use Bayesian Networks to predict and evaluate exceptions. Third, we applied the proposed methodology to an international EPC project example to validate the proposed approach. Finally, we concluded the research with the further research topics. We expect that the proposed approach can be extended to apply in exception management in project management.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.3 no.9
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• pp.335-340
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• 2014

Crowd Sourcing-based Social App Manufacturing environment, a small app development project by a team of anonymous virtual performed without the constraints of time and space, and manage it for the app development process need to be automated method. Virtual teams with anonymity is a feature of the Social App Manufacturing, is an important factor that increases the uncertainty of whether the completion of the project or reduction in visibility of the progress of the project. In this study, as one of how to manage the project of Social App Manufacturing environment, the impact of risk that can be used to quantitatively measure the impact of the risk of delay in development has on the project also proposes a measurement model. Effects of risk and type of the impact of risks associated with delays in the work schedule also define the characteristic function, measurement model that has been proposed, suggest the degree of influence measurement equation of risk of the project in accordance with the progressive. The advantage of this model, the project manager is able to ensure the visibility of the progress of the project. In addition, identify the project risk of work delays, and to take precautions.

• Architectural research
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.41-51
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• 2023

Building restoration is a complex process with a high level of uncertainty. Restoration professionals can significantly benefit from the well-established discipline of project management to achieve their targets; however, available evidence shows that the use of the project management body of knowledge in restoration projects is far from the desired level. Several historical organisations have since been established with the goal of preserving and governing cultural identity, and numerous studies have supported the need of preserving architectural heritage. Many owners, investors, academics, and developers believe that it would be considerably more expensive to renovate and restore an old building than to create a new one. Although the project management process is generally recognised, the concept of project management for architectural heritage projects differs due to the uniqueness of each project. It differs from many construction projects in terms of the need for research-based practices to define scope, planning, scheduling, supervision,decision-making,and also performance. The Greco-Roman Museum in Alexandria's planning, design, and building phases are being studied with the aim of identifying and analysing the variables that contribute to project delays. Three project management pillars were established as a result of gathering this data from the project's stakeholders: the first pillar addresses time management for the existing phase and how it will be incorporated into the new extension phase; the second pillar addresses performance in relation to project management issues in the delivery of the best quality of a construction project; and the third pillar addresses the scope of the new extension because it will significantly impact the other two pillars. This paper argues that a contemporary perspective which utilizes project management tools and techniques can contribute to the conservation of architectural heritage in line with the conservation principles.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.137-146
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• 2016

In recent years, business environment is faced with multi uncertainty that have not been suffered in the past. As supply chain is getting expanded and longer, the flow of information, material and production is also being complicated. It is well known that development service industry using application software has various uncertainty in random events such as supply and demand fluctuation of developer's capcity, project effective date after winning a contract, manpower cost (or revenue), subcontract cost (or purchase), and overrun due to developer's skill-level. This study intends to social contribution through attempts to optimize enterprise's goal by supply chain management platform to balance demand and supply and stochastic programming which is basically applied in order to solve uncertainty considering economical and operational risk at solution supplier. In Particular, this study emphasizes to determine allocation of internal and external manpower of developers using S&OP (Sales & Operations Planning) as monthly resource input has constraint on resource's capability that shared in industry or task. This study is to verify how Stochastic Programming such as Markowitz's MV (Mean Variance) model or 2-Stage Recourse Model is flexible and efficient than Deterministic Programming in software enterprise field by experiment with process and data from service industry which is manufacturing software and performing projects. In addition, this study is also to analysis how profit and labor input plan according to scope of uncertainty is changed based on Pareto Optimal, then lastly it is to enumerate limitation of the study extracted drawback which can be happened in real business environment and to contribute direction in future research considering another applicable methodology.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2015.11a
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• pp.183-184
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• 2015

More than 50% of the existing buildings in Korea are over 15 years old. Therefore it is necessary to be held reconstruction or remodeling deteriorated buildings more efficiently. Especially, since remodeling project reserves existing structures, it requires less period of project and construction period compare to reconstruction. It is possible to minimize uncertainty in communication between participants and able to manage information and construct efficiently in remodeling projects. This paper is first step of integrated BIM-based whole lifecyle management of apartment remodeling process. It suggests 3D laser scanner specification factors and site constraint factors for mapping between two groups. Therefore it will contribute to develop mapping algorithm of two groups and find optimal combination for apartment remodeling.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.185-189
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• 2010

As recent construction project has specialization and high-level of the engineering, Although, It has always uncertainty of agreement and contract enforcement, factors of difficult to predict etc. in each phase. In this process, Various interest groups involved are continuously generated dispute of interest each others. So this paper analyzed the dispute cases in construction projects from the Supreme Court and Korean Commercial Arbitration Board in Korea, and then identified the dispute types and causes that occur during all of the construction project phases with their influence analysis. At the result, It will be contributed to the basic data for pre-dispute prevention in the construction projects.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.72-73
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• 2018

The accuracy of contingency estimation plays an important role for dealing with the uncertainty of the financial success of construction project. Its' estimation may be used for various purposes such as schedule control, emergency resolve, and quality expense, etc. This paper presents a contingency estimation method which is schedule control specific. The method 1) implements stochastic EVMS, 2) detects a specific timing for schedule compression, 3) identifies an optimal strategy for shortening planned schedule, 4) finds a probability density function (PDF) of project cost overrun, and 5) estimates the optimal contingency cost based on the level of confidence. The method facilitates expeditious decisions involved in project budgeting. The validity of the method is confirmed by performing test case.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1997.07a
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• pp.352-357
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• 1997

The development of very high speed train system is a complex series of interrelated tasks, many of which have some degree of uncertainty associated with the successful outcome. Successful projects recognize and provide for the major uncertainties and technical unknowns with specific development strategies. The development strategies described in this paper incorporated the experiences of the advanced countries in high speed train technologies, the current technical status of Korean industries and the operating requirements of Korean High Speed Railway.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2002.05b
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• pp.181-198
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• 2002

This article describes a methodology for evaluating huge aerospace R&D investments using the real options pricing method. Option pricing has been proposed as a useful approach for modeling investment in R&D. Two important features of R&D investments are that an R&D project takes time to complete and that the outcome of R&D investments is highly uncertain. This makes the analysis of R&D investments difficult. Traditional tools for project evaluation, like IRR or the NPV, are inadequate for coping with the high uncertainty. Hence, In this article I propose a log-transformed binomal lattice method, and it will show that option pricing might be an adequate framework for evaluating such types of aerospace investments.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.07d
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• pp.1929-1931
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• 2001

An adaptive fuzzy logic controller to regulate molten steel level in the strip casting process is presented, where parameters of fuzzy controllers are adapted stably by using Lyapunov-stability theory and a switching controller is used together to deal with the approximation error of fuzzy logic system. The level error is proven to converge to zero asymptotically. In the simulation, the clogging/unclogging of a stopper nozzle is considered and overcome by the proposed controller. Robustness to uncertainty is shown to be superior to conventional PI controller.