Contingency Estimation Method based on Stochastic Earned Value Management System

추계적 EVMS 기반 예비비 산정 방법론

The accuracy of contingency estimation plays an important role for dealing with the uncertainty of the financial success of construction project. Its' estimation may be used for various purposes such as schedule control, emergency resolve, and quality expense, etc. This paper presents a contingency estimation method which is schedule control specific. The method 1) implements stochastic EVMS, 2) detects a specific timing for schedule compression, 3) identifies an optimal strategy for shortening planned schedule, 4) finds a probability density function (PDF) of project cost overrun, and 5) estimates the optimal contingency cost based on the level of confidence. The method facilitates expeditious decisions involved in project budgeting. The validity of the method is confirmed by performing test case.