• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.441-464
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• 2012

2000년 이래로 석유, 가스 등 에너지 가격이 지속적으로 상승하면서 에너지 안보는 그 어느 때보다 중요한 이슈가 되었다. 그 결과 에너지 확보를 위해 세계각국은 적극적으로 해외 자원개발에 나서고 있는 상황이며 관련 경쟁은 점점 치열해져 가고 있다. 이와 관련하여 본 연구에서는 우리나라가 비교적 쉽게 접근할 수 있는 독립계 E&P기업의 투자 행태 분석을 시도하였다. 본 연구에서는 자원의 고갈을 고려한 실물옵션 모형을 이용하여 북미 독립계 E&P기업의 투자 옵션에 대하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 대상기간인 2004년부터 2008년까지의 전반적인 시장 환경에서 독립계 E&P기업은 석유 프로젝트와 가스 프로젝트 모두 충분한 투자 타당성을 가지고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 석유 프로젝트가 가스 프로젝트보다 기대 수익이 더 높은 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 가스의 가격이 석유보다 낮고 가스 가격의 변동성이 석유가격보다 높은 것에서 기인한다.

• 한국정보과학회논문지:소프트웨어및응용
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.306-319
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• 2009

이름은 사람을 구별하기 위한 특징이지만 여러 사람이 하나의 이름을 공유하는 경우와 한 사람이 여러 이름을 사용하는 경우 때문에 이름만으로는 사람을 명확히 구별할 수 없다. 이러한 문제는 정보 검색 분야에서 문서 검색이나 웹 검색, 데이터베이스 통합 등에 영향을 미친다. 특히 서지 정보에는 저자들 중 동명이인이 존재하거나 한 저자가 축약된 이름 혹은 잘못된 철자를 사용하기도 하기 때문에 에러정보가 많이 포함되어 있다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 데이터베이스에 입력된 자료 중 이름에 대한 정보를 명확하게 해야 한다. 본 논문에서는 저자간의 관계로부터 구축된 사회망을 이용해 이름의 모호성을 해결하는 방법을 제안하고 컴퓨터 과학 서지정보를 제공하는 DBLP(Digital Bibliography & Library Project) 데이터를 기반한 실험을 통해 제안한 시스템의 성능의 효율성을 평가하였다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제6권5호
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• pp.119-127
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• 2005

최근의 건설시장 축소와 주 5일 근무제도, 공기단축형 입찰제도의 도입, 후분양제도의 도입 등의 제도적 변화에 따라 건설 수주 경쟁은 더욱 치열해지고 있다. 그러나 건설공사는 공기지 연을 유발하는 수많은 공정리스크가 존재하고 있으며 이러한 공정리스크에 대한 인식과 그에 따른 체계적인 관리가 부진한 경우 건설공사의 경쟁력을 확보하는 데 여러 어려움이 존재한다. 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위한 기존 연구는 공정리스크의 분류, 공정 리스크의 관리, 리스크 관리를 위한 시스템 개발에 치중하였다. 이에 본 연구는 전체 공정에 영향력이 크며, 위험발생 확률이 높은 철근콘크리트공사를 대상공종으로 선정하고 기존연구를 바탕으로 수차례의 전문가 면담과 난상토론을 실시하여 현실적인 리스크 요인과 관리방안을 제시하였다.

• STI Policy Review
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.41-54
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• 2013

R&D is inherently an uncertain endeavor, yet now more than ever those performing R&D with public funding are called upon to clarify the utility of their research. Calls for public accountability are mounting with the increase in constraints on government budgets due to the recent worldwide economic recession, in response to which both policymakers and researchers pay much more attention to rigorously assessing publicly funded R&D. A key issue complicating R&D evaluation in these circumstances is how to adequately account for the nature and degree of risk involved in a given R&D program or project. This study deliberates on certain issues involving the measurement of ex-ante risk in public R&D evaluation: (i) information asymmetry between R&D sponsors and performers, (ii) ambiguity in the measurement of returns in both prospective and retrospective evaluation, and (iii) the dilemma between measurement error and omitted variable bias for empirical estimation of R&D performance. The study then presents an analysis of hypothetical evaluation results that apply risk-relevant weights to the annual evaluation outcomes of South Korea's national R&D programs funded during 2006~2012. In this counterfactual re-evaluation of public R&D program performance, high-risk R&D programs turn out to receive higher evaluation than non-high-risk programs. The current study suggests that R&D evaluation ignoring ex-ante risk is not only conceptually invalid since R&D activities are intrinsically uncertain endeavors, but unfair as R&D performers are asked to be accountable for the results that were in fact out of their reach.

• 한국산업보건학회지
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.280-291
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• 2020

Objectives: Hazard classification is a controversial issue in the new MSDS system in which chemical companies have to prepare and submit MSDS for chemicals that they manufacture or import to the competent authorities according to the amended Occupational Safety and Health Act. The aim of this study is to suggest how to apply and manage harmonized hazard classification criteria and results by investigating current hazard classification systems and trends. Methods: The domestic issues about different hazard classification criteria and results were investigated by reviewing the literature and business outcomes regarding KOSHA. We also checked official and unofficial reports from the UN to understand international discussion about the topic. Chemical hazard classification results from agencies providing chemical information were analyzed to compare a harmonized rate between classifications. Furthermore, a field survey of a few chemical companies was conducted. Results: Under the related competent authorities, an integrated standard proposal was developed to harmonize the domestic hazard classification criteria. Although harmonized chemical information is strongly needed, we recognized the uncertainty and difficulty of harmonized hazard classification from the UN global list project review. In practice the harmonization rate of the classification was generally low between the classification in KOSHA, MoE, and EU CLP. Among hazard classes, health hazards largely led the disharmony. The field survey revealed a change of perception that the main body of chemical information production is manufacturers. Approaches and solutions about hazard classification issues differed depending on business size, types of chemical handling, and other factors. Conclusions: We proposed reasonable ways by time and step to apply hazard classification in the new MSDS system. Chemical manufacturers should make and offer chemical information including responsible hazard classifications. The government should primarily accept these classifications, evaluate them by priority, and support or supervise workplaces in order to communicate reliable chemical information.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.173-184
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• 2004

기상예보모형 중 장기예측에 널리 사용되는 CGM모의결과를 이용하여 확률론적 불확실성 해석기법의 적용을 통해 유역단위로 관리되는 국내 수자원 운영에 대한 활용 가능성을 분석하였다. 연구된 기법은 GCM 모의값이 관측값의 크고 작음을 얼마나 잘 구분하는지를 확률적으로 분석하는 방법으로 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 검정을 사용한다. GCM 모의값으로는 ECMWF에서 AMIP-II 형태로 모의한 결과로부터 표면강수량을 추출하여 사용하였으며, 관측값은 국내 7개 유역에 대해 면적강우량을 산정하여 사용하였다. 또한, 어느 정도의 구분능력이 적정한가를 판단하기 위한 유의수준(significance threshold)을 결정하기 위해 Monte Carlo 모의를 사용하였다. 이러한 분석을 통해 우리나라의 7개 유역에 대해서는 ECMWF 의 GCM 자료가 우기(6월∼9월)에 대해 인근 노드점의 자료를 평균하여 사용되어 질 경우 효율적인 것으로 나타났으나, 건기(10월∼5월)의 경우 구분 능력이 부족한 것으로 판단된다.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.153-171
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• 2015

The observational method in tunnel engineering allows the evaluation in real time of the actual conditions of the ground and to take measures if its behavior deviates considerably from predictions. However, it lacks a consistent and structured methodology to use the monitoring data to adapt the support system in real time. The definition of limit criteria above which adaptation is required are not defined and complex inverse analysis procedures (Rechea et al. 2008, Levasseur et al. 2010, Zentar et al. 2001, Lecampion et al. 2002, Finno and Calvello 2005, Goh 1999, Cui and Pan 2012, Deng et al. 2010, Mathew and Lehane 2013, Sharifzadeh et al. 2012, 2013) may be needed to consistently analyze the problem. In this paper a methodology for the real time adaptation of the support systems during tunneling is presented. In a first step limit criteria for displacements and stresses are proposed. The methodology uses graphics that are constructed during the project stage based on parametric calculations to assist in the process and when these graphics are not available, since it is not possible to predict every possible scenario, inverse analysis calculations are carried out. The methodology is applied to the "Bois de Peu" tunnel which is composed by two tubes with over 500 m long. High uncertainty levels existed concerning the heterogeneity of the soil and consequently in the geomechanical design parameters. The methodology was applied in four sections and the results focus on two of them. It is shown that the methodology has potential to be applied in real cases contributing for a consistent approach of a real time adaptation of the support system and highlight the importance of the existence of good quality and specific monitoring data to improve the inverse analysis procedure.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제7권
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• pp.141-168
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• 2001

The causes that the transparency of Korean accounting information was rated low, a short supply of faithful and transparent accounting information from the limitation of external audit environment must be pointed out. Purpose of the external audit is a expression of the auditors about that financial statements an enterprise made public were appropriately drew up in accordance with the corporate accounting principles from important point of view. Analysis of the audit opinion and so fourth according to 6,541 individual audit reports and introduced to the bill securities forward committee as a subject of external audit according to the raw of corporation external audit show that considerable change to the contents of audit report. This show as it is that uncertainty of future that is now being faced by our enterprise, because corporation which present audit reports since 1997 because of enterprise dishonor and contents of existence probability as a continued enterprise following to general economic crisis after 1998 occupy important position in special matters of audit report. Also, increase in special matters is due to application of the corporate accounting principles revised on December 11, 1998. In 1999, audit opinion under limitation(limitation, incongruity and rejecting opinion) increased greatly according to existence doubt as a continued enterprise, and this is the consequence of strengthening audit to the continues enterprise because of limited enterprise dishonor according to the stagnancy of business activities after 1997. Now financial supervisory service put in effect electromagnetic public announcement system about a project report of listed corporation (including an audit report) keeping pace with a documentary public announcement system as first phase since 1999 and expand to the unlisted corporation from 2000. As electromagnetic public announcement of public announcement documents including audit documents of external audit subject get a duty, approach of external user to the accounting information will be easier. Fixation of this system will make deep and wide analysis to the audit opinion, and this will draw up a plan to reconsider confidence of accounting information.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
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• pp.268-272
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• 2010

The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.71-82
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 미래 기후, 수문정보로부터 가뭄전망 정보를 생산 및 분석하고자 한다. 미래의 불확실성을 고려하기위해 3개 GCMs와 3개 수문모형을 이용하였다. 강수량, 유출량 및 토양수분량으로부터 기상학적, 수문학적 및 농업적 가뭄지수로 분류되는 SPI, SRI 및 SSI를 산정하였다. Mann-Kendall test 결과, 미래 가뭄의 경향은 봄철 및 겨울철에 크게 증가할 것으로 전망되었으며, 가뭄발생빈도의 경우 SRI 및 SSI가 SPI 보다 더 높게 나타났다. 미래 기후변화가 기상학적 가뭄 보다는 수문학적 및 농업적 가뭄에 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다.