• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.459-487
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• 2011

포스트 교토체제에서는 A/R CDM 등 산림 분야의 중요성이 증대할 것으로 전망된다. A/R CDM에 대한 정확한 경제성 평가는 투자의사결정에 유용한 정보를 제공하여 투자 활성화로 이어질 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 전통적 경제성 평가 방법이 간과한 의사결정자의 의사결정권의 가치 내지 기다림의 가치를 반영한 실물옵션 방법에 의해 모형을 구축하고 실제 A/R CDM 사례를 적용하여 실증분석을 하였다. 그 결과 적용 사례의 경우 최적투자분기점이 추정된 l-CER의 가격보다 낮게 나타남으로써 적절한 투자의사결정이 이루어졌음을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 할인율의 수준과 적용 범위에 따라 최적투자분기점과 투자의사결정이 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.101-120
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• 2002

Risk management or risk-based approach of software project management was developed to explain the effects of requirement uncertainty, control standardization, interactions on software quality. Based on a prior theory, five hypotheses were derived and empirically tested using a survey design. Data from 117 members in 3 SI companies support for the path model, and three of five hypotheses. The results showed that decreases in requirement uncertainty and increases in control standardization were directly associated with increases in the interactions between user and project teams, which, in turn, led to increases software quality. The findings suggested that the direct effect on software quality is primarily due to the interactions between user and project teams, rather than requirement uncertainty and control standardization.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.21-34
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• 2013

Various risk factors affect construction projects. Due to the uncertainties created by risk factors, actual activity durations frequently deviate from the estimated durations in either favorable or adverse direction. For this reason, evaluation of schedule uncertainty is required to make decisions accurately when managing construction projects. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer simulation model - the Repetitive Schedule Risk Analysis Model (RSRAM) - to evaluate unit-based repetitive building project schedules under uncertainty when activity durations and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation and a Critical Path Method based repetitive scheduling procedure. This new procedure concurrently provides the utilization of resources without interruption and the maintenance of network logic through successive units. Furthermore, it enables assigning variable production rates to the activities from one unit to another and any kind of relationship type with or without lag time. Details of the model are described and an example application is presented. The findings show that the model produces realistic results regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제33권7호
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• pp.469-476
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• 2009

Recent collapse of shipping market right after unprecedent surge clearly demonstrates that shipping industry is extremely risky. Due to the volatile movements of the freight rates, investors tend to ask higher rate of return; higher required return reduces the total net present value of the investment project. For several decades, the Discounted Cash Flow(DCF hereafter) analysis has been the most frequently used valuation technique. However, the main problem of the DCF analysis is its assumption that the discount rate would stay the same during the project life. In other words, it usually does not address the decisions that managers have after a project has been accepted. The purpose of this study is investigate a new valuation method of investment: the Real Option Analysis(ROA hereafter) on ship investment. By replacing the existing valuation methods with the new one, the research will present a new perspective on investment with uncertainty. While uncertainty increases risk of investment and consequently discounts the value of it in the traditional feasibility analysis, in the ROA, a new valuation method which will be addressed in the research, uncertainty means some additional value of flexibility so that the tool can help investors produce more accurate decisions. Contrary to the DCF analysis, the ROA takes managerial flexibilities into account. In reality, capital budgeting and project management is typically dynamic, rather than static in nature. The ROA finds and assesses the values of managerial flexibilities or real options in the investments. The main structures of the research will be as follows: (1) overview of the ship investment project, (2) evaluation of the project by the Net Present Value analysis, (3) evaluation of the same project by the Real Option Analysis, (4) comparision of the two techniques.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.19-27
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• 2016

Many countries concentrated on the space developments to enhance the national security and the people's quality of life. A space launch vehicle for accessing the space is a typical large complex system that is composed of the high-technology like high-performance, high-reliability, superhigh-pressure, etc. The project developing large complex system like space launcher is mostly conducted in the uncertain environment. To achieve a goal of the project, its success probability should be enhanced consistently by reducing its uncertainty during the life cycle: it's possible to reduce the project's uncertainty by performing the risk management (RM) that is a method for identifying and tracing potential risk factors in order to eliminate the risks of the project. In this paper, we introduce the risk management (RM) process applied for a Space Launch Vehicle R&D Project.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.502-506
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• 2013

The cash flow forecasting is normally done by contractors in construction industry at early stages of the project for contractual decisions. The decision making in such situations involve uncertainty about future cash flows and assessment of working capital requirements gains more importance in projects constrained by cash. The traditional approach to assess the working capital requirements is deterministic in and neglects the uncertainty. This paper presents an alternate approach to assessment of working capital requirements for contractor based on fuzzy set theory by considering the uncertainty and ambiguity involved at payment periods. Statistical methods are used to deal with the uncertainty for working capital curves. Membership functions of the fuzzy sets are developed based on these statistical measures. Advantage of fuzzy peak working capital requirements is demonstrated using peak working capital requirements curves. Fuzzy peak working capital requirements curves are compared with deterministic curves and the results are analyzed. Fuzzy weighted average methodology is proposed for the assessment of peak working capital requirements.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2004년도 제5회 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.224-227
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• 2004

건설사업관리자는 사업을 진행하기 전에 예측하지 못한 위험 발생 가능성에 대비한 예비비를 항상 고려해야 한다. 예비비를 충분히 고려하지 않고 사업을 수행하게 되면 리스크로 인한 총사업비에서의 초과 비용이 누적되어 향후 사업진행에 지장을 줄 수도 있기 때문이다. 과거의 실적자료를 바탕으로 적정한 예비비를 산정하기 위해 확률적 평가가 필요하며, 조건부 확률(conditional probability)을 사용함으로써 공정이 진행되면서 완료된 work package의 실제 공사비를 정보로 하여 잔여 공정에 대해 공사비와 예비비를 재산 정할 수 있다. 즉, 증가된 정보로 공사의 불확실성을 감소시키고 좀더 현실적인 총사업비를 예측할 수 있게 된다. 본 연구에서는 예비비 산정 및 관리 프로세스를 제시하기 위한 기초적인 연구로써 가상 프로젝트의 5개 work package를 대상으로 확률이론의 적용 가능성을 제시하였다.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.197-207
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• 2016

This paper seeks to measure the monetary value of technical development in the deep seabed manganese nodule mining by applying the compound option model (COM). The COM is appropriate for the project in terms of its decision-making structure and embedded uncertainty. The estimation results show that the deep seabed mining project has more economic potential than shown by the previously obtained results from the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. In addition, it is reasonable to invest in the project taking the various uncertainty factors into consideration, because the ratio of the value to the cost of the project is far higher than one. This information can be utilized in national ocean policy decision-making.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 2th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.563-572
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• 2007

Transportation infrastructure is critical to economic growth of a country such as China. Careful evaluation of investments in traffic infrastructure projects is therefore pertinent. As traditional evaluation methods do not consider the uncertainty of future cash flows and mobility during project execution, the real option approach is gradually gaining recognition in the context of valuing construction and infrastructure projects. However, many of the cases only evaluate individual options separately although multiple options often exist in a typical large infrastructure project. Using a highway project in China as a case study, this paper first evaluates a deferment option and a growth option embedded in the project. Subsequently, the values are combined using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. It is found that the combined value is less than the sum of the two option values. This finding is consistent with the theoretical observations given in past real option literature despite the use of a different approach.

• Journal of the Korean Physical Society
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• 제73권9호
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• pp.1247-1254
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• 2018

We study the uncertainty stemming from different theoretical models in the spectroscopic factors extracted from experiments. We use three theoretical approaches, the distorted wave Born approximation (DWBA), the adiabatic distorted wave approximation (ADWA) and the continuum discretized coupled-channels method (CDCC), and analyze the $^{12}C(d,p)^{13}C$, $^{14}C(d,p)^{15}C$ reactions. We find that the uncertainty associated with the adopted theoretical models is less than 20%. We also investigate the contribution from the remnant term and observe that it gives less than 10% uncertainty. We finally make an attempt to explain the discrepancy in the spectroscopic factors of $^{17}C(\frac{3}{2}^+)$ between the ones extracted from experiments and from shell model calculations by analyzing the $^{16}C(d,p)^{17}C$ reaction.