• Title/Summary/Keyword: project uncertainty

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The Emergence and Decline of the City Phone Project : Finding trace of failed technology (유선전화망 시대의 마지막 인공물, 시티폰의 출현과 몰락 : 실패한 기술 프로젝트의 흔적 찾기)

  • Oh, Sun-Sil
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.51-78
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    • 2009
  • Usually, Technological failures have been recognized as a mundane and inevitable process of trial and error for finally achieving success, or pathological technologies clearly different from success. These approaches easily ignore that a failed technology also constructed complex technological networks with various actors for some times. Consequently, failed technologies failed not only technological realization, but also got a proper evaluation. This paper explore the emergence and decline of the city phone project (CT-2 technology), the very typical failure cases in the telecommunications industry at Korea. This story shows that the city phone project with low-price and low-technology could constructed a stable network at agreement the result from interaction between various actors, and then, changed because various actors gave technologies different meaning and desire. Finally, it suggests that collapse of its technological network was attributed to uncertain future and contingent, rather than technological limits.

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Development of a 4D Information based Integrated Management System for Geothermal Power Plant Drilling Project (지열발전 시추프로젝트의 4D 정보화기반 통합관리 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Seung Soo;Kim, Kwang Yeom;Shin, Hyu-Soung
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.234-242
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    • 2014
  • Deep drilling project should be managed systematically and efficiently because it is significantly influenced by various related factors having uncertainty and high risk in terms of economy and effective management. In particular, drilling project involves participants from various sectors including necessary service company and it also needs their collaboration by sharing related information occurring at drilling process in order to secure efficient performance management. We developed 4D (3D + time) information based visualization system for progress management by combining 3D design model and predicted optimized control parameters for each section in geothermal well design. We also applied PDM (precedence diagramming method) to the system in order to setup the effective process model and hooked it up to 3D information based on precedence relation and required time for informatized process network.

Changing Adaptive Behaviors of TV Drama Producers (환경변화에 따른 TV드라마 제작자의 적응행동변화)

  • Limb, Seong-Joon;Lee, Choonkeun;Choo, Seungyoup
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.627-638
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    • 2012
  • This study empirically examines the concept of dynamic capability to recombine the resources such as directors, writers, and actors in the TV drama industry which is one of the most knowledge-based and project-based organizations. Based on the extant literature, it is argued that an organization's usage pattern of critical resources could partly reflect its dynamic capability. This study attempted to verify the hypothesis that Korean TV drama producers would utilize the same resources less repeatedly in the period with more uncertain environment(2003-2009) than the period with more stable and predictable environment(1994-2002). Empirical results partially support the hypothesis, verifying that there are different usage patterns in employing directors between the two periods but that is not the case in employing writers and actors. Such results imply that project-based organizations repeatedly use the same resources in order to pursue efficiency in stable environments whereas they tend to use a variety of different resources in order to adapt to uncertain environments.

A Study on the Importance of Risk Factors for Effective Risk Management in the Pre-Project Planning Phase of the Development Projects (국내개발사업 사전기획단계에서의 효율적 리스크 관리를 위한 리스크 인자 중요도에 관한 연구)

  • Shin Kyu-Ho;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.3 no.2 s.10
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 2002
  • The construction market is diversely changing because social environmental factors are rapidly transforming. Therefore, Construction projects are becoming complex and diverse. Furthermore, the risk being inherent in construction projects are increasing, and now people are considering about the risk management of construction projects in successfully handling the risk factor. The purpose of this study is first to comprehend the preparation of basic references for objective and systematic identification, categorization, and analysis of risk. Secondly it is to find the principle elements within the risk factors identified and categorized around planning process. Finally it is to manage objectively on the planning process, which forms a lot of uncertainty, in order to accentuate the importance about the risk of pre-planning process stage

Reformation Methods of Environmental Impact Assessment in Water Resources Development Project by Examining Local Resident Opinions (수자원 개발사업 주민의견 유형분석을 통한 환경영향평가 개선방안)

  • Yang, Kee-Hyoun;Park, Jae-Chung;Ryu, Young-Han;Jeong, Yong-Moon;Song, Sang-Jin;Shin, Jae-Ki
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.397-409
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    • 2011
  • This study was carried out for improving the effectiveness of water resources development project through local resident opinions in the environmental impact assessment(EIA). The EIA reports of seven dams were examined. Four dams -Youngju Dam, Seongduck Dam, Buhang Dam and Hantangang Dam- which included many local opinions including 470 opinions of 341 local residents were selected to be analyzed. Local residents submitted their opinions in the six fields which are meteorological phenomena, water quality, land use, fauna and flora, noise and vibration, and residence, and the major opinions of those opinions came from the atmosphere environment field which is 32% of total opinions and social and economic field which is 38% of total opinions, respectively. In submerged area, opinions of the measure for migration and compensation were 91% and in non-submerged area, opinions of the measure for meteorological phenomena was 86%. Those percentages were maximum in each area. Opinions concerned meteorological phenomena were 86% and 53% in Youngju Dam and Seongduck Dam where area is surrounded by existing dam, but there was only 9% and 0% of opinions in Buhang Dam and Hantangang Dam where area is without existing dam nearby. The reformation methods which reflected the resident's opinions were suggested on EIA in dam development projects. First of all, reliability and objectivity of the field of meteorological phenoma should be enhanced by scientific prediction of the phenomenon days. Secondly, techniques reducing uncertainty of various water quality prediction models ought to be developed and effectiveness of the reduction strategies in environmental impact should be quantified. Finally, the draft of EIA report should involve the detailed plans of migration and compensation's procedures, criteria and measures to support.

A Case Study on Function Point Method applying on Monte Carlo Simulation in Automotive Software Development

  • Do, Sung Ryong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2020
  • Software development activities are influenced by stochastic theory rather than deterministic one due to having process variability. Stochastic methods factor in the uncertainties associated with project activities and provides insight into the expected project outputs as probability distributions rather than as deterministic approximations. Thus, successful software projects systematically manage and balance five objectives based on historical probability: scope, size, cost, effort, schedule, and quality. Although software size estimation having much uncertainty in initial development has traditionally performed using deterministic methods: LOC(Lines Of Code), COCOMO(COnsructive COst MOdel), FP(Function Point), SLIM(Software LIfecycle Management). This research aims to present a function point method based on stochastic distribution and a case study based on Monte Carlo Simulation applying on an automotive electrical and electronics system software development. It is expected that the result of this paper is used as guidance for establishing of function point method in organizations and tools for helping project managers make decisions correctly.

Calculation and Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from La Chureca Landfill in Managua, Nicaragua (니카라과 마나과시 La Chureca 매립장 온실가스 발생량 산정 및 예측)

  • Kim, Choong Gon;Lee, Hyun Jun;Kang, Ho Jeung;Kim, Jae Young
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.131-139
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    • 2022
  • The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of a landfill project to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) from La Chureca Landfill in Managua, Nicaragua ("Project"). The feasibility study involved surveying the status and composition of waste on its way in to the landfill and projecting GHG emissions from the landfill. A projection of the GHG emissions with the IPCC model based on the survey results indicated the period 2006 to 2043 would see mean yearly GHG emissions of 290,147 ton-CO2/year with model certainty not considered, and 217,610 ton-CO2/year with model certainty considered. Thus, the result exceeded the corresponding median and mean values of other CDM projects implemented in Central America, even after model uncertainty was considered together with the conservative estimation of carbon capture efficiency. The similar result was produced even with an analysis of sensitivity to error factors. All the findings of the study are expected to be applicable as basic data for deciding about whether & how to proceed with the Project.

The Effects of Depreciation Methods on Investment Motivation for Solar Photovoltaic Systems (태양광 설비투자에 대한 제도적 유인방안 연구: 감가상각법의 경제적 효과 분석)

  • Kim, Kyung Nam
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.65-75
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    • 2020
  • The value of tangible assets depreciates over their useful life and this depreciation should be adequately reflected in any tax or financial reports. However, the method used to calculate depreciation can impact the financial performance of solar projects due to the time value of money. Korean tax law stipulates only one method for calculating the depreciation of solar photovoltaic facilities: the straight-line method. Conversely, USA's tax law accepts other depreciation methods as solar incentives, including the modified accelerated cost recovery system (MACRS) and Bonus depreciation method. This paper compares different depreciation methods in the financial analysis of a 10 MW solar system to determine their effect on the financial results. When depreciation was calculated utilizing the MACRS and Bonus depreciation method, the internal rate of return (IRR) was 10.9% and 16.4% higher, respectively, than when the Korean straight-line depreciation method was used. Additionally, the increased IRR resulting from the use of the two US methods resulted in a 20.5% and 27.4% higher net present value, respectively. This shows that changing the depreciation calculation method can redistribute the tax amount during the project period, thereby increasing the discounted cash flow of the solar project. In addition to increasing profitability, USA's depreciation methods alleviate the uncertainty of solar projects and provide more flexibility in project financing than the Korean method. These results strongly suggest that Korean tax law could greatly benefit from adopting USA's depreciation methods as an effective incentive scheme.

Methods to Improve Problems in The Smart Factory Operation Process (스마트공장 운영 과정에서 나타나는 문제점 개선 방안)

  • Dong-Woo Lee;Seong-Hoon Lee
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 2023
  • Smart factory construction projects are continuously being carried out domestically and abroad. In particular, in times of increasing uncertainty, interest in smart factories is increasing to improve corporate productivity. Currently, the government-led smart factory construction project is continuously being promoted in Korea. The tangible results of this construction project are very positive in indicators such as productivity improvement, quality improvement, and cost reduction. On the other hand, various contents are revealed in the survey to identify operational difficulties after building a smart factory. In this study, we analyzed difficulties (problems) in operation after establishing the system shown in the survey conducted in 2017 and 2020, and derived improvement plans for them. If these improvement measures are implemented in the relevant process of the smart factory construction project, it is expected that the operational difficulties felt by companies will be reduced, and a system with higher satisfaction than before will be established.

Risk Influencing Factors in Performance of River Disaster Prevention Project (하천재해예방사업의 성과에 미치는 리스크 영향요인)

  • Cho, Jin-Ho;Kim, Byung-Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.417-428
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    • 2020
  • The characteristics of the construction project involved various stakeholders' involvement from the planning stage until completion of the object, which caused the uncertainty to increase. Successful construction projects require risk analysis and appropriate responses. Therefore, this study aimed to confirm the influence of risk management factors on the success of river disaster prevention construction in construction projects and the effect of moderating communication between stakeholders involved in the construction process. The Delphi method was used to derive the risk management factors of the construction process. The survey used a snow ball sampling method. For analysis, SPSS Statistic 20 and SmartPLS 2.0 were used. As a result of the study, the impact of risk management factors on project performance was found to be large in the order of time risk, quality risk, cost risk, safety risk, and construction environment risk. In addition, the impact of the communication moderating effect was large in the order of cost risk, quality risk, construction environment risk, time risk, and safety risk. In this study, it was confirmed that communication between stakeholders related to river disaster prevention work has a moderating effect that changes the ranking of impacts on project performance. This shows the importance of communication in the construction process of river disaster prevention works. This study has important significance in that it identifies the importance of risk management factors and communication in river disaster prevention works.