• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.07d
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• pp.1929-1931
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• 2001

An adaptive fuzzy logic controller to regulate molten steel level in the strip casting process is presented, where parameters of fuzzy controllers are adapted stably by using Lyapunov-stability theory and a switching controller is used together to deal with the approximation error of fuzzy logic system. The level error is proven to converge to zero asymptotically. In the simulation, the clogging/unclogging of a stopper nozzle is considered and overcome by the proposed controller. Robustness to uncertainty is shown to be superior to conventional PI controller.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1176-1182
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• 2009

Due to recession in real estate market, interest of risk analysis is increasing. Feasibility study in the first stage takes a great role in a project. There are not objectified tools which are able to cope with uncertainty of project, and feasibility study based on selected method of determinism does not include liquidity of weight risk. Also, shortage of consideration for subjective and atypical external factors causes inappropriate results. Therefore, this study proposes feasibility study model focused on risk factor influences in construction cost and sales cost. Considering effective level of cost based on objective risk factors and probable weight of risk by this model, real workers are able to bring correct and scientific decisions better than former method based on selective analysis of real estate development.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1474-1478
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• 2009

The cooperation and trust among the project participants play a critical role in the success or failure of any delivery system in construction industry. But it is very difficult to establish trust between an owner and a contractor when rational people only pursue only their own material self-interest. Based on the principal-agent theory, this paper will introduce the altruistic behavior into the traditional principal-agent model, and model the reciprocal behavior between the owner and contractor. We will show that both the owner and the contractor benefit from their reciprocal behavior, and hence trust establishing between them is possible. More importantly, we will proof that the higher the project uncertainty is, the more important trust establishing is.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.881-885
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• 2005

Scheduling repetitive projects under limitations on the amounts of available resources (labor and equipment) has been an active subject because of its practical relevance. Traditionally, the limitation is specified as a deterministic (fixed) number, such as 1000 labor-hours. The limitation, however, is often exposed to uncertainty and variability, especially when the project is lengthy. This paper presents a stochastic optimization model to treat the situations where the limitations of resources are expressed as probability functions in lieu of deterministic numbers. The proposed model transfers each deterministic resource constraint into a corresponding stochastic one and then solves the problem by the use of a chance-constrained programming technique. The solution is validated by comparison with simulation results to show that it can satisfy the resource constraints with a probability beyond the desired confidence level.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.3-16
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• 2017

Forecasting cash flow is very important but is difficult and complicated to analysis in high-rise development projects. And An expected value which was forecasted on the early stage is likely to fluctuate due to uncertainties around such complicated huge project to consider the probable uncertainty. There are not objectified method which are able to cope with uncertainty of project, and feasibility study based on selected financial analysis does not include liquidity of cash flow. Through such a stochastic method, developer can cope with cash flow fluctuation and set up a financial plan. Also this study is meaningful for laying the foundation for high-rise development project and feasibility study as well as the suitability and accuracy of feasibility study. Analysis showed that NPV and IRR include residential apartments shows surplus revenue as return of apartments offset deficit of hotel and office. Factors influencing the project feasibility for high-rise development project are sales account of $1^{st}$ year and annual vacancy rate of office.

• Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.319-335
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• 2014

This study attempts to suggest an economic analysis model for SNG projects, which can reflect the future uncertainty objectively and applies the real option valuation incorporating the flexible investment decision. Based on this analysis model, net present value and internal rate of return were estimated by using preliminary feasibility study report of SNG project. And economic evaluation of SNG project was performed with real option valuation using binomial option model. Through this, the difference of analysis results between the real option valuation model and the discounted cash flow model were compared and the usefulness of the real option valuation model was confirmed. From the actual proof analysis, it is confirmed that the real option valuation model showed higher SNG project value than the discounted cash flow model did. It was confirmed that by applying the real option valuation model, economic analysis can be performed on not only the current straightforward SNG project, but also various future portfolios having options such as expansion, modification, or decommission.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.31-44
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• 2008

A selection technique for innovative projects on the beginning stage has been presented in this article. It can be applied in projects assessment in HEI, enterprises, development institutes, etc. It is rather difficult to assess the project quality on the beginning stage of R&D due to the uncertainty in the technical and economic indices but the new development analysis on this stage is of a great interest. By innovative project quality as a management object we will mean those characteristics relating to the results capacity of the projects and its realization process to satisfy the requirements to the innovative products competitiveness and their innovative attractiveness for investors. The most important question in the innovative projects management is the determination of its quality level under modern conditions. The aim of the research is to analyze and evaluate the decision making during the project management process. The objectives and hypotheses are assessment of an innovative project with the application of McKinsey's model is better to realizes by 3 stages: a) selection of optimal criteria; b) determination of weighing coefficients; c) projects positioning in a matrix.

• Plant Journal
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.39-43
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• 2011

Due to the recent uncertainty of market situations such as the escalation of petroleum prices, increased production capacities of plants, limitations of the available EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) contractors, and the increase of raw material prices, EPC contractors have had a tendency to include a higher reserve contingency in the lump-sum turnkey contract price. In order to overcome the changes in the market, the plant project construction industry has started to apply the converted lump-sum turnkey contract in plant construction market. This study was focused to find the associated risks and to analyse the identified risks on recent trend of application of the new contract type, which is the converted lump-sum turnkey contract. It was recognized from the analysis that quality and cost have more high priority risks than other project objectives. This paper also suggests the mitigation plan for identified risks to achieve project objectives appropriate to the converted lump-sum turnkey project from the viewpoint of an EPC contractor keeping transparency with owner.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.11b
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• pp.17-22
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• 2008

Construction project have extremely high risk in the process of construction owing to unexpected event, like as design amendment. As a result, owner have to endure enormous extra-cost to control the risk and continue to the project having more higher uncertainty. Also, if the structure is completed, it is needed that the structure is protected and maintained continuously during life cycle time to satisfying original aim of structure itself. LCC analysis to calculate cost of structure alternatives divides into two stage, one is design_LCC and the other is maintenace_LCC. But two stages all is needed in the transition deterioration model to calculate more reasonable LCC analysis. This paper developed the model using analysis of FMS contents and survey from professional about Prestressed concrete beam girder bridge(PC Beam bridge)in railway. The model is focused in project level of PC beam because any condition state information for element level analysis can not get up. This paper is intended to use the developed model in LCC analysis of PC Beam bridge in railway and constitute the foundation to perform more deep study in the near future.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.10
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• pp.2803-2809
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• 2009

For a successful construction project not only construction engineering and project management technology but also economic evaluation technique is required. Design and construction technologies are necessary to receive a project order. However, construction management technology which can be apply from the project initial phase to the project operation and management phase is required to create a benefit from the project. Construction management technology is one of the effective factors for project success. Economical and efficient cost management from the planning phase influences the project success. This study investigated cost flow and cost factors of domestic Sewage Treatment Plant project for systematic analysis of cost items following the entire project phase. Particularly, data modeling based on domestic Sewage Treatment Equipment maintenance cost DB was performed, and maintenance cost estimation trend line is suggested using Monte carlo Simulation Method to decrease uncertainty of actual results DB and for feasibility study. Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society.