• Title/Summary/Keyword: prognostic model

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A study of seasonal variation of the residual flow before and after Saemangeum reclamation (새만금간척 전.후 잔차류의 계절변화에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Moon-Seup;vanagi, T.;Hong, Sung-Kun;Lee, Dong-Ju
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.35 no.4 s.129
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    • pp.425-442
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    • 2002
  • The land reclamation area of Saemangeum(Kunsan) is located between $126^{\circ}10'\;E{\sim}126^{\circ}50'\;E\;and\;35^{\circ}35'\;N{\sim}36^{\circ}05'\;N$ at the western coast of the Korean peninsula. The reclamation area of Saemangeum has a range of 5.6m spring tide and the maximum tidal current speed is about $1.41m\;s^{-1}$. In ordinary spring tide. Most of the sediments deposited on the tidal flats are transported from the Geum river, the Mankyung river and the Dongjin river. The soil in this area consists of silty sand with the depth of 10m to 30m. The wind in winter is strong from the direction of northwest. Saemangeum coastal area is being constructed 33km the sea dike and 40,100ha reclamation area. The purpose of this study Is to find the residual circulations in four seasons before and after the dike construction by a robust diagnostic and prognostic numerical model.

The Prognostic Value of 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT in the Initial Assessment of Primary Tracheal Malignant Tumor: A Retrospective Study

  • Dan Shao;Qiang Gao;You Cheng;Dong-Yang Du;Si-Yun Wang;Shu-Xia Wang
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.425-434
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    • 2021
  • Objective: To investigate the potential value of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT in predicting the survival of patients with primary tracheal malignant tumors. Materials and Methods: An analysis of FDG PET/CT findings in 37 primary tracheal malignant tumor patients with a median follow-up period of 43.2 months (range, 10.8-143.2 months) was performed. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to assess the associations between quantitative 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters, other clinic-pathological factors, and overall survival (OS). A risk prognosis model was established according to the independent prognostic factors identified on multivariate analysis. A survival curve determined by the Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess whether the prognosis prediction model could effectively stratify patients with different risks factors. Results: The median survival time of the 37 patients with tracheal tumors was 38.0 months, with a 95% confidence interval of 10.8 to 65.2 months. The 3-year, 5-year and 10-year survival rate were 54.1%, 43.2%, and 16.2%, respectively. The metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), maximum standardized uptake value, age, pathological type, extension categories, and lymph node stage were included in multivariate analyses. Multivariate analysis showed MTV (p = 0.011), TLG (p = 0.020), pathological type (p = 0.037), and extension categories (p = 0.038) were independent prognostic factors for OS. Additionally, assessment of the survival curve using the Kaplan-Meier method showed that our prognosis prediction model can effectively stratify patients with different risks factors (p < 0.001). Conclusion: This study shows that 18F-FDG PET/CT can predict the survival of patients with primary tracheal malignant tumors. Patients with an MTV > 5.19, a TLG > 16.94 on PET/CT scans, squamous cell carcinoma, and non-E1 were more likely to have a reduced OS.

Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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Roles of Ethnicity in Survival of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients in Malaysia

  • Azmawati, M.N.;Krisnan, R.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.12
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    • pp.6023-6026
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    • 2012
  • The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Malaysia for the year 2001 was 2.8 per 100,000 people. The mortality rate is increasing. A retrospective cohort study measuring the survival of HCC patients who received treatment in Selayang Hospital was conducted from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2006. The main objectives of the study were to measure the survival of the patients and to understand the influencing factors, especially ethnicity. The subjects were newly diagnosed cases of HCC by CT scan and histopathological assessment who underwent futher investigations and treatments in Hospital Selayang (inception cohort). The survival time was measured from the date of diagnosis until the subjects died, or failed to follow-up at the end of the study period (31 December 2007). A total of 299 patients were selected with 95 patients dying, the majority among Chinese (39.1%). Subgroup analysis according to ethnicity proved significantly that Chinese patients who had smaller tumor, less number of nodules, low AFP level, Child Pugh Class A and received surgical treatment had a better median survival rate compared to other ethnic groups. Malay (cHR: 1.3, 95%CI; 0.89-1.85) and Indian (cHR: 1.3, 95%CI; 0.74-2.26) patients had a poor survival compared to Chinese patients, but not in the final model. Therefore ethnicity may play a role in survival of HCC patients, but not as a main hazard prognostic factor.

Prognostic Role of PTEN Gene Expression and Length of Survival of Breast Cancer Patients in the North East of Iran

  • Golmohammadi, Rahim;Rakhshani, Mohammad Hassan;Moslem, Ali Reza;Pejhan, Akbar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.sup3
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    • pp.305-309
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    • 2016
  • PTEN protein is an important tumour suppressor factor detectable by immunohistochemistry. The goal of the present study was to investigate the prognostic role of PTEN gene expression focusing on length of survival in breast cancer patients. This descriptive-analytical study was conducted on 100 breast cancer cases referred to Sabzevar hospitals in the north east of Iran between 2010 and 2011, followed up to 2015. The PTEN gene expression of tumour tissue samples was determined using specific monoclonal antibodies. The data were analyzed using Chi-square test and Fisher's exact test. Patient length of survival was analyzed after 4 years of follow-up using the Cox regression model. The PTEN gene was expressed in 70 of 100 samples, while being found at a high level in all noncancerous samples. There was an inverse significant relationship between expression of PTEN and tumour stage and grade (p<0.001). In addition, expression of PTEN in invasive ductal tumours was less than in non-invasive tumours. There was also an inverse significant relationship between the likelihood of death and PTEN gene expression (p<0.01). These findings indicate that lack of PTEN gene expression can be sign for a worse prognosis and poor survival in breast cancer.

Study of evaluation wind resource detailed area with complex terrain using combined MM5/CALMET system (고해상도 바람지도 구축 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hwa-Woon;Kim, Dong-Hyeuk;Kim, Min-Jung;Lee, Soon-Hwan;Park, Soon-Young;Kim, Hyun-Goo
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.274-277
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    • 2008
  • To evaluate high-resolution wind resources for local and coastal area with complex terrain was attemped to combine the prognostic MM5 mesoscale model with CALMET diagnostic modeling this study. Firstly, MM5 was simulated for 1km resolution, nested fine domain, with FDDA using QuikSCAT seawinds data was employed to improve initial meteorological fields. Wind field and other meteorological variables from MM5 with all vertical levels used as initial guess field for CALMET. And 5 surface and 1 radio sonde observation data is performed objective analysis whole domain cells. Initial and boundary condition are given by 3 hourly RDAPS data of KMA in prognostic MM5 simulation. Geophysical data was used high-resolution terrain elevation and land cover(30 seconds) data from USGS with MM5 simulation. On the other hand SRTM 90m resolution and EGIS 30m landuse was adopted for CALMET diagnostic simulation. The simulation was performed on whole year for 2007. Vertical wind field a hour from CALMET and latest results of MM5 simulation was comparison with wind profiler(KEOP-2007 campaign) data at HAENAM site.

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Characteristics Associated with Survival in Patients Receiving Continuous Deep Sedation in a Hospice Care Unit

  • Ahn, Hee Kyung;Ahn, Hong Yup;Park, So Jung;Hwang, In Cheol
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.254-260
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    • 2021
  • Continuous deep sedation (CDS) is an extreme form of palliative sedation to relieve refractory symptoms at the end of life. In this study, we shared our experiences with CDS and examined the clinical characteristics associated with survival in patients with terminal cancer who received CDS. We conducted a chart audit of 106 consecutive patients with terminal cancer who received CDS at a single hospice care unit between January 2014 and December 2016. Survival was defined as the first day of admission to the date of death. The associations between clinical characteristics and survival were presented as hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals using a Cox proportional hazard model. The mean age of participants was 65.2 years, and 33.0% (n=35) were women. Diazepam was the most commonly administered drug, and haloperidol or lorazepam were also used if needed. One sedative was enough for a majority of the patients. Stepwise multivariate analysis identified poor functioning, a high Palliative Prognostic Index score, hyperbilirubinemia, high serum ferritin levels, and a low number of sedatives as independent poor prognostic factors. Our experiences and findings are expected to be helpful for shared decision-making and further research on palliative sedation.

Development of Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model Based on a Non-equilibrium 2.5 Level Closure Turbulence Model (비평형 2.5 난류모델을 이용한 라그란지안 입자 확산모델 개발)

  • 구윤서
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.613-623
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    • 1999
  • A Lagrangian particle dispersion mode l(LPDM) coupled with the prognostic flow model based on nonequilibrium level 2.5 turbulence closure has been dcveloped to simulate the dispersion from an elevated emission source. The proposed model did not require any empirical formula or data for the turbulent statistics such as velocity variances and Lagrangian time scales since the turbulence properties for LPDM were calculated from results of the flow model. The LPDM was validated by comparing the model results against the wind tunnel tracer experiment and ISCST3 model. The calculated wind profile and turbulent velocity variances were in good agreement with those measured in the wind tunnel. The ground level concentrations along the plume centerline as well as the dispersion codfficients also showed good agreement in comparison with the wind tunnel tracer experiment. There were some discrepancies on the horizontal spread of the plume in comparison with the ISCST3 but the maximum ground level concentrations were in a good confidence range. The results of comparisons suggested that the proposed LPDM with the flow model was an effective tool to simulate the dispersion in the flow situation where the turbulent characteristics were not available in advance.

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The effects of adjuvant therapy and prognostic factors in completely resected stage IIIa non-small cell lung cancer (비소세포 폐암의 근치적 절제술 후 예후 인자 분석 및 IIIa 병기에서의 보조 요법의 효과에 대한 연구)

  • Cho, Se Haeng;Chung, Kyung Young;Kim, Joo Hang;Kim, Byung Soo;Chang, Joon;Kim, Sung Kyu;Lee, Won Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.709-719
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    • 1996
  • Background: Surgical resection is the only way to cure non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC) and the prognosis of NSCLC in patients who undergo a complete resection is largely influenced by the pathologic stage. After surgical resection, recurrences in distant sites is more common than local recurrences. An effective postoperative adjuvant therapy which can prevent recurrences is necessary to improve long tenn survival Although chemotherapy and radiotherapy are still the mainstay in adjuvant therapy, the benefits of such therapies are still controversial. We initiated this retrospective study to evaluate the effects of adjuvant therapies and analyze the prognostic factors for survival after curative resection. Method: From 1990 to 1995, curative resection was perfomled in 282 NSCLC patients with stage I, II, IIIa, Survival analysis of 282 patients was perfonned by Kaplan-Meier method. The prognostic factors, affecting survival of patients were analyzed by Cox regression model. Results: Squamous cell carcinoma was present in 166 patients(59%) ; adenocarcinoma in 86 pmients(30%) ; adenosquamous carcinoma in II parients(3.9%); and large cell undifferentiated carcinoma in 19 patients(7.1%). By TNM staging system, 93 patients were in stage I; 58 patients in stage II ; and 131 patients in stage rna. There were 139 postoperative recurrences which include 28 local and 111 distant failures(20.1% vs 79.9%). The five year survival rate was 50.1% in stage I ; 31.3% in stage II ; and 24.1% in stage IIIa(p <0.0001). The median survival duration was 55 months in stage I ; 27 months in stage II ; and 16 months in stage rna. Among 131 patients with stage rna, the median survival duration was 19 months for 81 patients who received postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy only or cherne-radiotherapy and 14 months for the other 50 patients who received surgery only or surgery with adjuvant radiotherapy(p=0.2982). Among 131 patients with stage IIIa, the median disease free survival duration was 16 months for 21 patients who received postop. adjuvant chemotherapy only and 4 months for 11 patients who received surgery only(p=0.0494). In 131 patients with stage IIIa, 92 cases were in N2 stage. The five year survival rate of the 92 patients with N2 was 25% and their median survival duration was 15 months. The median survival duration in patients with N2 stage was 18 months for those 62 patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy and 14 months for the other 30 patients who did not(p=0.3988). The median survival duration was 16 months for those 66 patients who received irradiation and 14 months for the other 26 patients who did not(p=0.6588). We performed multivariate analysis to identify the factors affecting prognosis after complete surgical resection, using the Cox multiple regression model. Only age(p=0.0093) and the pathologic stage(p<0.0001) were significam prognostic indicators. Conclusion: The age and pathologic stage of the NSCLC parients are the significant prognostic factors in our study. Disease free survival duration was prolonged with statistical significance in patients who received postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy but overall survival duration was not affected according to adjuvant therapy after surgical resection.

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Computation of Hypothetical Tsunamis on the East Coast in Korea (공백역 지진에 의한 동해안의 지진해일 산정)

  • 최병호;홍성진;이제신
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.73-86
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    • 2002
  • Prognostic characteristics of hypothetical tsunamis in the East Sea are discussed based on numerical model simulations of linear long wave theory and wave ray for 28 source zones of tsunamigenic earthquake selected by the seismic gap theory. As a result, the propagation patterns of tsunamis due to hypothetical earthquake are presented and analyses also lead to selection of the geographical zones with low risk of tsunamis.