• IE interfaces
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.309-318
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• 2012

Forecasting probability or likelihood of technology development success has been a crucial factor for critical decisions in technology management such as R&D project selection and go or no-go decision of new product development (NPD) projects. This paper proposes an analytic network process (ANP) approach to forecasting of technology development success. Reviewing literature on factors affecting technology development success has constructed the ANP model composed of four criteria clusters : R&D characteristics, R&D competency, technological characteristics, and technological environment. An alternative cluster comprised of two elements, success and failure is also included in the model. The working of the proposed approach is provided with the help of a case study example of MRAM (magnetic random access memory) technology.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.26 no.10
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• pp.2073-2081
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• 2002

In product design and manufacturing, axiomatic design provides a systematic approach for the decision-making process. Two axioms have been defined such as the Independence Axiom and the Information Axiom. The Information Axiom states that the best design among those that satisfy the independence axiom is the one with the least information content. In other words, the best design is the one that has the highest probability of success. On the other hand, the Taguchi robust design is used in the two-step process; one is "reduce variability," and the other is "adjust the mean on the target." The two-step can be interpreted as a problem that has two FRs (functional requirements). Therefore, the Taguchi method should be used based on the satisfaction of the Independence Axiom. Common aspects exist between the Taguchi method and Axiomatic Design in that a robust design is induced. However, different characteristics are found as well. The Taguchi method does not have the design range, and the probability of success may not be enough to express robustness. Our purpose is to find the one that has the highest probability of success and the smallest variation. A new index is proposed to satisfy these conditions. The index is defined by multiplication of the robustness weight function and the probability density function. The robustness weight function has the maximum at the target value and zero at the boundary of the design range. The validity of the index is proved through various examples.gh various examples.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.177-183
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• 1999

This paper presents how to evaluate the transformer damage caused by reclosing scheme at the distribution substation. We describe a quantitative relationship between the reclosing scheme and the number of fault current flowing through transformer wsing the probability of a reclosing success/failure. The transformer damage from reclosing scheme is presented using a weight function and a damage function. A weight function is associated with the number of reclosing attempts and the reclosing deadtime to consider cumulative stress caused by reclosing scheme. A damage function is associated with a transformer impact ratio and a transformer functional life. In the case study, the transformer damage is simulated for the probability of a reclosing success. And the evaluation of transformer damage using KEPCO's operation data is performed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.149-154
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• 2008

The concept of robust design was introduced by Dr. G. Taguchi in the late 1940s, and his technique has become commonly known as the Taguchi method or the robust design. In this research, a robust design procedure for microgyroscope is suggested based on the kriging and optimization approaches. The kriging interpolation method is introduced to obtain the surrogate approximation model of true function. Robustness is calculated by the kriging model to reduce real function calculations. For this, objective function is represented by the probability of success, thus facilitating robust optimization. The statistics such as mean and variance are obtained based on the reliable kriging model and the second-order statistical approximation method.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.12 no.9
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• pp.4548-4559
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• 2018

Conditional differential attack against NFSR-based cryptosystems proposed by Knellwolf et al. in Asiacrypt 2010 has been widely used for analyzing round-reduced Grain v1. In this paper, we present improved conditional differential attacks on Grain v1 based on a factorization simplification method, which makes it possible to obtain the expressions of internal states in more rounds and analyze the expressions more precisely. Following a condition-imposing strategy that saves more IV bits, Sarkar's distinguishing attack on Grain v1 of 106 rounds is improved to a key recovery attack. Moreover, we show new distinguishing attack and key recovery attack on Grain v1 of 107 rounds with lower complexity O($2^{34}$) and appreciable theoretical success probability 93.7%. Most importantly, our attacks can practically recover key expressions with higher success probability than theoretical results.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.58-71
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to explore the multi-dimensionality and the differences of the career success that is revealed by the employee's perception. In order to fulfill the research purpose, LDA topic modeling has applied to extract latent topics of career success from 126 Korean employees' open-end survey questionnaires. The extracted latent topics are social recognition, continuing service within an organization, expertise, financial rewards, and pursuing personal meaning. The occurrence probability of each topic was different by individual characteristics such as gender, education, position. Study findings showed there is multi-dimensionality in career success, and there are differences of topic occurrence probability by demographic characteristics. Additionally, this study showed how to apply the recently developed machine learning approach in order to reduce the researcher's bias by adapting the LDA topic modeling to the qualitative open-ended survey data.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.141-151
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• 2008

In the paper, we analyze the performance of random access channels in multi-service multi-user OFDMA systems. The resource of the random access channels in OFDMA systems are available sub-channels and PN-codes. For given available sub-channels and PN-codes,' we analyze the performance of the random access channels of OFDMA systems in terms of the access success probability, the blocking probability, the access delay and the throughput per each service class. Further, we find the feasible region of the access probability of each service class in which the allowable minimum access success probability, the allowable maximum blocking probability and the allowable maximum access delay are satisfied. The results also can be used to find proper region of the access probabilities of each service class for differentiated quality of service(QoS)s, and for the system operations in multi-service multi-user OFDMA systems.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.11-21
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• 2015

In order to achieve success in ground operations, searching for moving targets is one of critical factors. Usually, the system of searching for adversary ground moving targets has complex properties which includes target's moving characteristics, camouflage level, terrain, weather, available search time window, distance between target and searcher, moving speed, target's tactics, etc. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical quantitative method for effectively searching for infiltrated moving targets considering aforementioned complex properties. Based upon search theories, this paper consists of two parts. One is infiltration route analysis, through terrain and mobility analysis. The other is building dynamic probability maps through Monte Carlo simulation to determine the prioritized searching area for moving targets. This study primarily considers ground moving targets' moving pattern. These move by foot and because terrain has a great effect on the target's movement, they generally travel along a constrained path. With the ideas based on the terrain's effect, this study deliberately performed terrain and mobility analysis and built a constrained path. In addition, dynamic probability maps taking terrain condition and a target's moving speed into consideration is proposed. This analysis is considerably distinct from other existing studies using supposed transition probability for searching moving targets. A case study is performed to validate the effectiveness and usefulness of our methodology. Also, this study suggests that the proposed approach can be used for searching for infiltrated ground moving target within critical time window. The proposed method could be used not only to assist a searcher's mission planning, but also to support the tactical commander's timely decision making ability and ensure the operations' success.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.35-58
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• 2004

For fixed positive integers and $\textit{k}\;(n\;{\geq}\;{\textit{k}}\;+\;2)$, the exact probability distributions of non-overlapping and overlapping patterns of two failures separated by (i) exactly $textsc{k}$ successes, (ii) at least $\textit{k}$ successes and (iii) at most $\textit{k}$ successes have been obtained for Bernoulli independent and Markov dependent trials by using combinatorial technique. The waiting time distributions for the first occurrence and the $r^{th}$ (r > 1) occurrence of the patterns have also been obtained.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.3-20
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• 1977

In many applications one is concerned with repeated Bernoulli trials whose parameter (success probability) is usually unknown and has to be estimated from a sample. The probability distribution and statistical inference on the repeated independent Bernoulli trials have been studied extensively for the cases of fixed sample size sampling plan, and inverse binomial sampling plan in which observations are cotinued until a pressigned number of successes are obtained. See, for example, Haldane, Girschick et al., DeGroot and Johnson and Kotz.