• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of success

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Evolvable Cooperation Strategy for the Interactive Robot Soccer with Genetic Programming

  • Kim, Hyoung-Rock;Hwang, Jung-Hoon;Kwon, Dong-Soo
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.59.2-59
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    • 2001
  • This paper presents an evolvable cooperation strategy based on a genetic programming for the interactive robot soccer game. The interactive robot soccer game has been developed to allow a person to join in the game dynamically and to reinforce entertainment characteristics. In this game, a cooperation strategy between humans and autonomous robots is very important in order to make the game more enjoyable. First of all, necessary action sets for the cooperation strategy and its strategy structure are presented. In the first stage, a blocking action that an autonomous robot cut off an enemy robot from disturbing the way of the human controlled robot has been considered. The success probability of the blocking action has beer obtained in ...

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공리적 설계에서 정보량 계산 방법

  • 신광섭;이정욱;이상일;권용덕;박경진
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.52-52
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    • 2004
  • 공리적 설계는 미국 매사추세츠 공과대학의 서남표 교수에 의해 창출되고 보급되어 온 설계이론이다. 그러나 좀 더 정확히 말한다면 설계이론 이라기보다는 일반적인 공학적 과정에 적용할 수 있는 원리를 포함하는 설계프레임워크라 할 수 있다. 기계공학에서의 역학과 같이 설계를 하기 위해서는 과학적인 기본원리에 따라 설계해야 한다는 것이다. 그러므로 공리적 설계는 설계과정에서 설계자에게 과학적 원리를 제공하여 설계자가 이성적이고 논리적으로 설계를 진행할 수 있도록 하여, 시행착오를 줄이며, 좀 더 창조적이고 최상의 설계를 선택할 수 있도록 도움을 주는 것이다.(중략)

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Certified Missile Rounds Concepts Using Modeling and Simulation (M&S를 활용한 유도탄 검사주기 및 수량 설정 방안)

  • Kim, Byung-Soo;Lee, Kye-Shin;Kim, Dong-Seok;Moon, Ki-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2009
  • In this study, we presented the periodic inspection method of the Certified Missile Round Concepts usuing M&S(Modeling and Simulation) techniques. Firstly, We drew up the scenario from the application concepts and the predicted dormant reliability Secondly, we performed the modeling for a simulation program based on the scenario. Lastly we embodied the simulation program. After comparing and examining the difference between the simulation results and the theoretical estimates, we present the best periodic inspection plan for achieving the probability of success.

Improvement of precipitation forecasting skill of ECMWF data using multi-layer perceptron technique (다층퍼셉트론 기법을 이용한 ECMWF 예측자료의 강수예측 정확도 향상)

  • Lee, Seungsoo;Kim, Gayoung;Yoon, Soonjo;An, Hyunuk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.7
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    • pp.475-482
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    • 2019
  • Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction information which have 2 weeks to 2 months lead time are expected to be used through many parts of industry fields, but utilizability is not reached to expectation because of lower predictability than weather forecast and mid- /long-term forecast. In this study, we used multi-layer perceptron (MLP) which is one of machine learning technique that was built for regression training in order to improve predictability of S2S precipitation data at South Korea through post-processing. Hindcast information of ECMWF was used for MLP training and the original data were compared with trained outputs based on dichotomous forecast technique. As a result, Bias score, accuracy, and Critical Success Index (CSI) of trained output were improved on average by 59.7%, 124.3% and 88.5%, respectively. Probability of detection (POD) score was decreased on average by 9.5% and the reason was analyzed that ECMWF's model excessively predicted precipitation days. In this study, we confirmed that predictability of ECMWF's S2S information can be improved by post-processing using MLP even the predictability of original data was low. The results of this study can be used to increase the capability of S2S information in water resource and agricultural fields.

A Storage and Computation Efficient RFID Distance Bounding Protocol (저장 공간 및 연산 효율적인 RFID 경계 결정 프로토콜)

  • Ahn, Hae-Soon;Yoon, Eun-Jun;Bu, Ki-Dong;Nam, In-Gil
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.35 no.9B
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    • pp.1350-1359
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    • 2010
  • Recently many researchers have been proved that general RFID system for proximity authentication is vulnerable to various location-based relay attacks such as distance fraud, mafia fraud and terrorist fraud attacks. The distance-bounding protocol is used to prevent the relay attacks by measuring the round trip time of single challenge-response bit. In 2008, Munilla and Peinado proposed an improved distance-bounding protocol applying void-challenge technique based on Hancke-Kuhn's protocol. Compare with Hancke-Kuhn's protocol, Munilla and Peinado's protocol is more secure because the success probability of an adversary has (5/8)n. However, Munilla and Peinado's protocol is inefficient for low-cost passive RFID tags because it requires large storage space and many hash function computations. Thus, this paper proposes a new RFID distance-bounding protocol for low-cost passive RFID tags that can be reduced the storage space and hash function computations. As a result, the proposed distance-bounding protocol not only can provide both storage space efficiency and computational efficiency, but also can provide strong security against the relay attacks because the adversary's success probability can be reduced by $(5/8)^n$.

A Study of Project Selection Criteria and Models for Computerization of Governmental Administration (행정업무(行政業務)의 전산화(電算化)를 위한 선정기준(選定基準) 및 모형(模型))

  • Lee, Jin-Ju;Park, Yeong-Tak
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 1977
  • The trend of computerization is significant in Korea even at its beginning stage, especially for governmental administration. However, full-fledged success of computerization in an organization is reported to be rare while the cost of computerization has been high and increasing. This paper is concerned with two features for the successful implementation of a computerized system in an organization selection criteria for the computerization among the possible candidate projects and project selection models. Due to the dearth of literature regarding successful implementation of computerization, other sources of literature with respect to R & D management, method engineering, etc. were reviewed to develop a set of factors influencing successful computerization. Thus, project selection criteria for computerization of governmental administration are developed and organized as follows: cost of computerization project including both system development and operating cost, quanitative and qualitative benefits of computerization project, probability of technical and implementation success of computerization and other organizational and political factors to be considered. These criteria are broken down into detailed sets of subcriteria to be measured. To select a project after thorough consideration of the selection criteria, a project selection model which takes into account all criteria together has to be developed. In the study three project selection models are suggested and developed. They are the checklist model, multi-stage cut-off model, and composite criteria model. A detailed procedure for each of the three models is illustrated. Although the project selection criteria and models are developed here primarily for the computerization of governmental administration, they are easily applicable to other settings of computerization. Finally, some caveats for the use of selection criteria and models are discussed.

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Construction of "CIDEAR" Model for Selecting and Evaluating Cross Impact R & D Projects (상호영향형 R&D과제군의 평가산정을 위한 "CIDEAR" 모형의 개발)

  • Kwon Cheol Shin;Park Joon Ho;Hong Seok Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.41-61
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this paper is to construct $\ulcorner$CIDEAR(Cross Impact-DEA-AR)$\lrcorner$ model which evaluates proposed R&D projects considering cross impact among them and selects proper projects to utilize resources efficiently as well as to maximize efficacy of investments. For this purpose, $\ulcorner$CIDEAR$\lrcorner$ model is designed as the following six steps. $\ulcorner$Decision Theory Evaluation Model$\lrcorner$ is for setting and selecting the evaluation items according to the structured procedure of evaluation system. The priority of items is decided at $\ulcorner$AR Decision Model$\lrcorner$$\ulcorner$Cross Impact Estimation Model$\lrcorner$ is for computing the final probability of success and the result is used to revise the evaluation results of $\ulcorner$Decision Theory Evaluation Model$\lrcorner$. $\ulcorner$Resource Performance Analysis Model$\lrcorner$ classifies the proposed R&D projects on the basis of required resources and expected performance. Consequently, the possibility of bias of project selection can be prevented. $\ulcorner$Priority Oder Decision Model$\lrcorner$ is for computing the efficacy of proposed projects. Finally, $\ulcorner$Efficacy-Efficiency Cause Analysis Model$\lrcorner$ analyzes the structure of efficacy and efficiency of the projects. The major findings and significances of this study are summarized as follows: (1) $\ulcorner$CIDEAR$\lrcorner$ model can deal with the affairs of R&D projects having the characteristics of mutual independence as well as mutual dependence in the point of efficacy and efficiency. Hence, it is possible to evaluate and select R&D projects more accurately. (2) It can be possible to raise the possibility of projects success. R&D manager can use the information for project management because the efficacy-efficiency structure of selected projects can be analyzed. (3) We proved the usefulness of the constructed $\ulcorner$CIDEAR$\lrcorner$ model using an case about twenty-one R&D projects of a leading company of electronic industry in Korea.

Treatment of Isoniazid-Resistant Pulmonary Tuberculosis

  • Jhun, Byung Woo;Koh, Won-Jung
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.83 no.1
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    • pp.20-30
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    • 2020
  • Tuberculosis (TB) remains a threat to public health and is the leading cause of death globally. Isoniazid (INH) is an important first-line agent for the treatment of TB considering its early bactericidal activity. Resistance to INH is now the most common type of resistance. Resistance to INH reduces the probability of treatment success and increases the risk of acquiring resistance to other first-line drugs such as rifampicin (RIF), thereby increasing the risk of multidrug-resistant-TB. Studies in the 1970s and 1980s showed high success rates for INH-resistant TB cases receiving regimens comprised of first-line drugs. However, recent data have indicated that INH-resistant TB patients treated with only firs-tline drugs have poor outcomes. Fortunately, based on recent systematic meta-analyses, the World Health Organization published consolidated guidelines on drug-resistant TB in 2019. Their key recommendations are treatment with RIF-ethambutol (EMB)-pyrazinamide (PZA)-levofloxacin (LFX) for 6 months and no addition of injectable agents to the treatment regimen. The guidelines also emphasize the importance of excluding resistance to RIF before starting RIF-EMB-PZA-LFX regimen. Additionally, when the diagnosis of INH-resistant TB is confirmed long after starting the first-line TB treatment, the clinician must decide whether to start a 6-month course of RIF-EMB-PZA-LFX based on the patient's condition. However, these recommendations are based on observational studies, not randomized controlled trials, and are thus conditional and based on low certainty of the effect estimates. Therefore, further work is needed to optimize the treatment of INH-resistant TB.

The pre-hospital analysis of patients with suicide attempts in Gangwon-do (일개 도 지역 자살 시도 환자에 대한 병원전 단계 분석)

  • Kim, Gi Whan;Cho, Jun Hwi;Moon, Joong Bum;Park, Chan Woo;Shin, Myoung Cheol;Kim, Ka Eul;Lee, Joon Seok;Park, Yoon Soo;Ohk, Taek Geun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Emergency Medicine
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.687-698
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    • 2018
  • Objective: This study examined the characteristics of suicidal attempters, including pre-hospital patients and those who visited the emergency department. Methods: Suicidal attempters who had been reported to the 119 call center were selected between July 2015 and June 2016. Sex, age, place, methods of suicidal attempt, season, time, and suicide success rate were reviewed in the fire center records. Results: A total 961 suicide attempters were enrolled. Among them, 53.6% were males who had an approximately 2.6 times higher mortality than that of females (9.2%). The most preferred place to commit suicide was the home in both sexes (68.0% in male, 82.8% in female) and the most preferred methods was drug intoxication, particularly pesticide. The method with the highest mortality was hanging and the lowest was self-harm. The season of the highest mortality was spring. The success of suicide and the time variation were similar. Most of the un-transferred patients also selected fatal suicide attempts compared to transfer patients. Conclusion: Unlike previous studies, this study includes information on un-transferred patients. Overall, the probability of death was highest as more than 50 years men chose hanging as a method, which had an influence on the un-transferred patients group.

Exploring the Predictive Factors of Passing the Korean Physical Therapist Licensing Examination (한국 물리치료사 국가 면허시험 합격 여부의 예측요인 탐색)

  • Kim, So-Hyun;Cho, Sung-Hyoun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2022
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to establish a model of the predictive factors for success or failure of examinees undertaking the Korean physical therapist licensing examination (KPTLE). Additionally, we assessed the pass/fail cut-off point. Methods : We analyzed the results of 10,881 examinees who undertook the KPTLE, using data provided by the Korea Health Personnel Licensing Examination Institute. The target variable was the test result (pass or fail), and the input variables were: sex, age, test subject, and total score. Frequency analysis, chi-square test, descriptive statistics, independent t-test, correlation analysis, binary logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed on the data. Results : Sex and age were not significant predictors of attaining a pass (p>.05). The test subjects with the highest probability of passing were, in order, medical regulation (MR) (Odds ratio (OR)=2.91, p<.001), foundations of physical therapy (FPT) (OR=2.86, p<.001), diagnosis and evaluation for physical therapy (DEPT) (OR=2.74, p<.001), physical therapy intervention (PTI) (OR=2.66, p<.001), and practical examination (PE) (OR=1.24, p<.001). The cut-off points for each subject were: FPT, 32.50; DEPT, 29.50; PTI, 44.50; MR, 14.50; and PE, 50.50. The total score (TS) was 164.50. The sensitivity, specificity, and the classification accuracy of the prediction model was 99 %, 98 %, and 99 %, respectively, indicating high accuracy. Area under the curve (AUC) values for each subject were: FPT, .958; DEPT, .968; PTI, .984; MR, .885; PE, .962; and TS, .998, indicating a high degree of fit. Conclusion : In our study, the predictive factors for passing KPTLE were identified, and the optimal cut-off point was calculated for each subject. Logistic regression was adequate to explain the predictive model. These results will provide universities and examinees with useful information for predicting their success or failure in the KPTLE.