• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of collapse

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Seismic analysis and performance for stone pagoda structure under Gyeongju earthquake in Korea

  • Kim, Ho-Soo;Kim, Dong-Kwan;Jeon, Geon-Woo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.531-549
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    • 2021
  • Analytical models were developed and seismic behaviors were analyzed for a three-story stone pagoda at the Cheollyongsa temple site, which was damaged by the Gyeongju earthquake of 2016. Both finite and discrete element modeling were used and the analysis results were compared to the actual earthquake damage. Vulnerable parts of stone pagoda structure were identified and their seismic behaviors via sliding, rocking, and risk analyses were verified. In finite and discrete element analyses, the 3F main body stone was displaced uniaxially by 60 and 80 mm, respectively, similar to the actual displacement of 90 mm resulting from the earthquake. Considering various input conditions such as uniaxial excitation and soil-structure interaction, as well as seismic components and the distance from the epicenter, both models yielded reasonable and applicable results. The Gyeongju earthquake exhibited extreme short-period characteristics; thus, short-period structures such as stone pagodas were seriously damaged. In addition, we found that sliding occurred in the upper parts because the vertical load was low, but rocking predominated in the lower parts because most structural members were slender. The third-floor main body and roof stones were particularly vulnerable because some damage occurred when the sliding and rocking limits were exceeded. Risk analysis revealed that the probability of collapse was minimal at 0.1 g, but exceeded 80% at above 0.3 g. The collapse risks at an earthquake peak ground acceleration of 0.154 g at the immediate occupancy, life safety, and collapse prevention levels were 90%, 52%, and 6% respectively. When the actual damage was compared with the risk analysis, the stone pagoda retained earthquake-resistant performance at the life safety level.

Effects of Explosion on Structures (폭발이 구조물에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoon, Yong-Kyun
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.10-16
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    • 2019
  • Information on overpressure, positive phase duration, and impulse are required to assess the effects of shock waves or pressure waves on the structure. In this study, the overpressure and positive phase duration were determined by applying the Multi-Energy Method, which is found to be effective in analyzing the explosion of vapor clouds. Based on the total heat of combustion estimated in the cyclohexane vapor cloud explosion in the Nypro Ltd(UK), overpressure and positive phase duration at the distance of 40, 80, 120, 160, 200, 240, 280, 320, 360(m) from the source of explosion were evaluated. Overpressure was shown to decrease exponentially and positive phase duration increased almost linearly with distance. A probit function was used to assess the probability of damages for the structures at each distance using the overpressure and impact obtained at the above mentioned distances. The Analyses of probability of damages have shown that there is a high probability of collapse at distances within 120m, major damage to structures within 240m, and minor damage and breakage of window panes of structures occur over the entire distances.

Seismic fragility and risk assessment of an unsupported tunnel using incremental dynamic analysis (IDA)

  • Moayedifar, Arsham;Nejati, Hamid Reza;Goshtasbi, Kamran;Khosrotash, Mohammad
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.705-714
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    • 2019
  • Seismic assessment of underground structures is one of the challenging problems in engineering design. This is because there are usually many sources of uncertainties in rocks and probable earthquake characteristics. Therefore, for decreasing of the uncertainties, seismic response of underground structures should be evaluated by sufficient number of earthquake records which is scarcely possible in common seismic assessment of underground structures. In the present study, a practical risk-based approach was performed for seismic risk assessment of an unsupported tunnel. For this purpose, Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) was used to evaluate the seismic response of a tunnel in south-west railway of Iran and different analyses were conducted using 15 real records of earthquakes which were chosen from the PEER ground motion database. All of the selected records were scaled to different intensity levels (PGA=0.1-1.7 g) and applied to the numerical models. Based on the numerical modeling results, seismic fragility curves of the tunnel under study were derived from the IDA curves. In the next, seismic risk curve of the tunnel were determined by convolving the hazard and fragility curves. On the basis of the tunnel fragility curves, an earthquake with PGA equal to 0.35 g may lead to severe damage or collapse of the tunnel with only 3% probability and the probability of moderate damage to the tunnel is 12%.

Response modification factor and seismic fragility assessment of skewed multi-span continuous concrete girder bridges

  • Khorraminejad, Amir;Sedaghati, Parshan;Foliente, Greg
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.389-403
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    • 2021
  • Skewed bridges, being irregular structures with complicated dynamic behavior, are more susceptible to earthquake damage. Reliable seismic-resistant design of skewed bridges can be achieved by accurate determination of nonlinear seismic demands. However, the effect of geometric characteristics on the response modification factor (R-factor) is not accounted for in bridge design practices. This study attempts to investigate the effects of changes in the number of spans, skew angle and bearing stiffness on R-factor values and to assess the seismic fragility of skewed bridges. Results indicated that changes in the skew angle had no significant effect on R-factor values which were in consonance with code-prescribed R values. Also, unlike the increase in the number of spans that resulted in a decrease in the R-factor, the increase in bearing stiffness led to higher R-factor values. Findings of the fragility analysis implied that although the increase in the number of spans, as well as the increase in the skew angle, led to a higher failure probability, greater values of bearing stiffness reduced the collapse probability. For practicing design engineers, it is recommended that maximum demands on substructure elements to be calculated when the excitation angle is applied along the principal axes of skewed bridges.

Residual Longitudinal Strength of a VLCC Considering Probabilistic Damage Extents (확률론적 손상을 고려한 VLCC 잔류 종강도 평가)

  • Nam, Ji-Myung;Choung, Joon-Mo;Park, Ro-Sik
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2012
  • This paper provides prediction of ultimate longitudinal strengths of hull girder of a VLCC considering probabilistic damage extents due to collision and grounding accidents based on IMO Guideline(2003). The probability density functions of damage extents are expressed as a function of nondimensional damage variables. The accumulated probability levels of 10%, 30%, 50%, and 70% are taken into account for the damage extent estimation. The ultimate strengths have been calculated using in-house software UMADS (Ultimate Moment Analysis of Damaged Ships) which is based on the progressive collapse method. Damage indices are provided for all heeling angles due to any possible flooding of compartments from $0^{\circ}$ to $180^{\circ}$ which represent from sagging to hogging conditions, respectively. The analysis results reveal that minimum damage indices show different values according to heeling angles and damage levels.

System and member reliability of steel frames

  • Zhou, W.;Hong, H.P.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.4 no.6
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    • pp.419-435
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    • 2004
  • The safety level of a structural system designed per code specifications can not be inferred directly from the reliability of members due to the load redistribution and nonlinear inelastic structural behavior. Comparison of the system and member reliability, which is scarce in the literature, is likely to indicate any possible inconsistency of design codes in providing safe and economical designs. Such a comparative study is presented in this study for moment resisting two-dimensional steel frames designed per AISC LRFD Specifications. The member reliability is evaluated using the resistance of the beam-column element and the elastic load effects that indirectly accounts for the second-order effects. The system reliability analysis is evaluated based on the collapse load factor obtained from a second-order inelastic analysis. Comparison of the system and member reliability is presented for several steel frames. Results suggest that the failure probability of the system is about one order of magnitude lower than that of the most critically loaded structural member, and that the difference between the system and member reliability depends on the structural configuration, degree of redundancy, and dead to live load ratio. Results also suggest that the system reliability is less sensitive to initial imperfections of the structure than the member reliability. Therefore, the system aspect should be incorporated in future design codes in order to achieve more reliability consistent designs.

Iterative-R: A reliability-based calibration framework of response modification factor for steel frames

  • Soleimani-Babakamali, Mohammad Hesam;Nasrollahzadeh, Kourosh;Moghadam, Amin
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.59-74
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    • 2022
  • This study introduces a general reliability-based, performance-based design framework to design frames regarding their uncertainties and user-defined design goals. The Iterative-R method extracted from the main framework can designate a proper R (i.e., response modification factor) satisfying the design goal regarding target reliability index and pre-defined probability of collapse. The proposed methodology is based on FEMA P-695 and can be used for all systems that FEMA P-695 applies. To exemplify the method, multiple three-dimensional, four-story steel special moment-resisting frames are considered. Closed-form relationships are fitted between frames' responses and the modeling parameters. Those fits are used to construct limit state functions to apply reliability analysis methods for design safety assessment and the selection of proper R. The frameworks' unique feature is to consider arbitrarily defined probability density functions of frames' modeling parameters with an insignificant analysis burden. This characteristic enables the alteration in those parameters' distributions to meet the design goal. Furthermore, with sensitivity analysis, the most impactful parameters are identifiable for possible improvements to meet the design goal. In the studied examples, it is revealed that a proper R for frames with different levels of uncertainties could be significantly different from suggested values in design codes, alarming the importance of considering the stochastic behavior of elements' nonlinear behavior.

Energy Exchanges and Adhesion Probability of Lennard-Jones Cluster Colliding with a Weakly Attractive Static Surface (클러스터-표면 충돌시 부착 확률과 에너지 교환에 대한 분자동력학 시물레이션)

  • Jung, Seung-Chai;Suh, Dong-Uk;Yoon, Woong-Sup
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.1788-1793
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    • 2008
  • Classical molecular dynamics simulations (MDS) were conducted to simulate nano-sized cluster collisions with a weakly attractive static surface. Energy exchanges associated with the cluster collision and the adhesion probability are discussed. Routes of the energy exchanges and the kinetic energy loss are vastly altered in their mode according to the cluster incident velocity. In the elastic collision regime ($V_0$<0.1), most incident kinetic energy is recovered into the rebounding kinetic energy, but a little loss in the incident kinetic energy causes the cluster adhesion. Dissipated kinetic energy is converted into the rotational energy. In the weakly plastic collision regime (0.1<$V_0$<0.3), the transition from elastic to plastic collision occurs, and a large part of the released potential energy is converted into rebounding translational energy. For strongly plastic collisions ($V_0$>0.3), permanent cluster deformation occurs with extensive collapse of the lattice structure inducing a solid-to-solid phase transition; moreover, most of the cluster kinetic energy is converted into cluster potential and thermal energy.

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Seismic Performance Assessment of Unreinforced Masonry Wall Buildings Using Incremental Dynamic Analysis (증분동적해석을 통한 비보강 조적벽식 건물의 내진성능 평가)

  • Kwon, Ki Hyuk;Kim, Man Hoe;Kim, Hyung Joon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.28-39
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    • 2013
  • The most common housing type in Korea is low-rise buildings with unreinforced masonry walls (UMWs) that have been known as a vulnerable seismic-force-resisting system (SFRS) due to the lack of ductility capacities compared to high lateral stiffness of an UMW. However, there are still a little experimental investigation on the shear strength and stiffness of UMWs and on the seismic performance of buildings using UMWs as a SFRS. In Korea, the shear strength and stiffness of UMWs have been evaluated with the equations suggested in FEMA 356 which can not reflect the structural and material characteristics, and workmanship of domestic UMW construction. First of all, this study demonstrates the differences in shear strength and stiffness of UMWs obtained from between FEMA 356 and test results. The influence of these differences on the seismic performance of UMW buildings is then discussed with incremental dynamic analyses results of a prototype UMW building that were selected by the site survey of more than 200 UMW buildings and existing test results of UMWs. The seismic performance assessment of the prototype UMW building are analyzed based on collapse margin ratios and beta values repesenting uncertainty of seismic capacity. Analysis results show that the seismic performance of the UMW building estimated using the equations in FEMA 356 underestimates both a collapse margin ratio and a beta value compared to that estimated by test results. Whatever the estimation is carried out two cases, the seismic performance of the prototype building does not meet the criteria prescribed in a current Korean seismic code and about 90% collapse probability presents for more than 30-year-old UMW buildings under earthquakes with 2400 return years.

Dynamic Response based System Reliability Analysis of Structure with Passive Damper - Part 2: Assessment of System Failure Probability (수동형 댐퍼를 장착한 구조물의 동적응답기반 신뢰성 해석 - 제2편: 시스템 파괴확률 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Min;Ok, Seung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.95-101
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    • 2016
  • This study proposes a multi-scale dynamic system reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this second paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the structure-level failure. Since the failure of one structural member does not necessarily cause the collapse of the structural system, we need to consider a set of failure scenarios of the structural system and compute the sum of the failure probabilities of the failure scenarios where the statistical dependence between the failure scenarios should be taken into account. Therefore, this computation requires additional system reliability analysis. As a result, the proposed approach takes a hierarchial framework where the failure probability of a structural member is computed using a lower-scale system reliability with the union set of time-sequential member failures and their statistical dependence, and the failure probability of the structural system is again computed using a higher-scale system reliability with the member failure probabilities obtained by the lower-scale system reliability and their statistical dependence. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide an accurate and stable reliability assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system on the system failure. Also, the parametric study of damper capacity on the seismic performance has been performed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach through the probabilistic assessment of the seismic performance improvement of the damper system.