• 보건행정학회지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2001

The purpose of the present study was to assess the agreement of survival probability estimated by International Classification of Diseases l0th Edition(ICD-10) based International Classification of Diseases based Injury Severity Score(ICISS) with professional panel's judgment on preventable death. ICISS has a promise as an alternative to Trauma and Injury Severity Score(TRISS) which have served as a standard measure of trauma severity, but requires more validation studies. Furthermore as original version of ICISS was based ICD-9CM, it is necessary to test its performance employing ICD-10 which has been used in Korea and is expected to replace ICD-9 in many countries sooner or later. Methods : For 1997 and 1998 131 trauma deaths and 1,785 blunt trauma inpatients from 6 emergency medical centers were randomly sampled and reviewed. Trauma deaths were reviewed by professional panels with hospital records and survival probability of trauma inpatients was assessed using ICD-10 based ICISS. For trauma mortality degree of agreement between ICISS survival probability with judgment of professional panel on preventable death was assessed and correlation between W-score and preventable death rate by each emergency medical center was assessed. Results : Overall agreement rate of ICISS survival probability with preventable death judged by professional panel was 66.4%(kappa statistic 0.36). Spearman's correlation coefficient between W-score and preventable death rate by each emergency medical center was -0.77(p=0.07) and Pearson's correlation coefficient between them was -0.90(p=0.01). Conclusions : The agreement rate of ICD-10 based ICISS survival probability with of professional panel's judgment on preventable death was similar to TRISS. The W-scores of emergency medical centers derived from ICD-10 based ICISS were highly correlated with preventable death rates of them with marginal statistical significance.

• 대한수학교육학회지:수학교육학연구
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.179-199
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• 2007

본 연구는 초등학교 5학년 수학영재와 일반아의 확률판단 능력과 근거를 비교하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 적절한 비교 준거를 개발하기 위해 선행연구에서 제시하는 확률판단 검사문항을 수정하고 보완하였다. 개발된 검사문항을 이용하여 확률교육을 받지 않은 수학영재 170명, 일반아 228명을 대상으로 검사를 실시한 후, 확률판단의 차이와 확률판단에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과 수학영재가 일반아에 비해 정답률이 높았으나 일부 문항에 대해서는 일반아의 정답률이 더 높게 나타났다. 정답에 대한 확신의 정도는 대체로 수학영재가 더 높았다. 확률 판단에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 수학영재는 논리적 추론과 수학적 지식의 활용을 들 수 있으며, 일반아는 직관적 판단 등이 활용되는 것으로 나타났다.

• 인지과학
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.335-355
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• 2009

위험정보를 확률이나 빈도양식으로 제시하고 질병으로 사망할 확률(기저율)에 대한 위험을 판단하게 하고 양성판정을 받은 사람이 질병에 걸렸을 확률(사후확률)에 대한 위험판단과 추론의 정확성을 비교하였다. 베이스 추론 과제를 사용한 연구 1에서 숫자양식의 효과가 관찰되었다. 참가자들은 위험이 확률보다는 빈도로 제시될 때 더 위험하다고 판단하였고 질병에 걸렸을 확률을 더 정확하게 추론하였다. 빈도의 범위가 좁을 때보다 넓을 때 더 위험하다고 판단하는 효과는 관찰되지 않았다. 분석적 사고체계가 위험판단에 미치는 영향을 검토하려고 사후확률을 계산하는 조건과 계산하지 않는 조건을 비교하였다. 숫자양식의 효과는 여전히 관찰되었다. 연구 2는 기저율과 사후확률의 크기에 따라 숫자양식 효과와 빈도범위 효과가 달라지는지 알아보았다. 숫자양식의 효과는 기저율과 사후확률의 크기에 상관없이 모든 조건에서 관찰되었다. 위험한 사건이 발생할 확률의 높고 낮음에 상관없이 빈도로 제시되었을 때 참가자들이 더 위험하다고 판단하였다. 그러나 빈도범위 효과는 기저율이 낮은 조건에서만 발견되었다. 본 연구의 결과들을 이중처리체계 이론과 관련시켜 논의하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.25-34
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• 1997

This study presents a new approach for expert opinion elicitation process to assess an uncertainty inherent in accident management. The need to work with rare event and limited data in accident management leads analysis to use expert opinions extensively. Unlike the conventional approach using point-valued probabilities, the study proposes the concept of fuzzy probability to represent expert opinion. The use of fuzzy probability has an advantage over the conventional approach when an expert's judgment is used under limited dat3 and imprecise knowledge. The study demonstrates a method of combining and propagating fuzzy probabilities. finally, the proposed methodology is applied to the evaluation of the probability of a bottom head failure for the flooded case in the Peach Bottom BWR nuclear power plant.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.488-493
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• 2013

Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제18권8호
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• pp.31-37
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• 2019

The inter-development of FMECA is very important to assess the effect of potential failures during system operation on mission, safety and performance. Among these, criticality analysis is a core task that identifies items with high risk and selects the analyzed objects as the key management targets and reflects their effects to the design optimization. In this paper, we analyze the theory related to criticality analysis following US military standard, and propose a method to quantify the failure effect probability for objective criticality analysis. The criticality analysis according to the US military standard depends on the subjective judgment of the failure probability. The methodology for quantifying the failure effect probability is presented by using the reliability theory and the Bayes theorem. The failure rate is calculated by applying the method to quantify failure effect probability.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1499-1504
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• 2008

This study shows risk-based evaluation results of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP(Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. The risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.35-48
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• 2017

As the technology convergence paradigm emerges, the need for "CIA techniques" to analyze the mutual effects of technology is increasing. However, since the CIA input parameter estimation is difficult, the present study suggests a "CIA input parameter setting model" to alleviate the difficulty of CIA input parameter estimation. This paper is focused on the difference of measurement difficulty by each scale which expert's estimation behavior was defined as measurement activity quantifying the judgment of future technology. Therefore, this model is designed to estimate the input variable as a sequence or isometric scale that is relatively easy to measure, and then converts it into a probability value. The input parameter setting model of the CIA technique consists of three sub-models : 'probability value derivation model', 'influence estimation model', and 'impact value calculation model', in order to develop a series of models the Thurstone V model, Regression Analysis, etc has been used.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.326-335
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• 2022

Background: One of the important actions for enhancing human reliability in any industry is assessing human error probability (HEP). The HEART technique is a robust tool for calculating HEP in various industries. The traditional HEART has some weaknesses due to expert judgment. For these reasons, a hybrid model is presented in this study to integrate HEART with Best-Worst Method. Materials Method: In this study, the blasting process in an iron ore mine was investigated as a case study. The proposed HEART-BWM was used to increase the sensitivity of APOA calculation. Then the HEP was calculated using conventional HEART formula. A consistency ratio was calculated using BWM. Finally, for verification of the HEART-BWM, HEP calculation was done by traditional HEART and HEART-BWM. Results: In the view of determined HEPs, the results showed that the mean of HEP in the blasting of the iron ore process was 2.57E-01. Checking the full blast of all the holes after the blasting sub-task was the most dangerous task due to the highest HEP value, and it was found 9.646E-01. On the other side, obtaining a permit to receive and transport materials was the most reliable task, and the HEP was 8.54E-04. Conclusion: The results showed a good consistency for the proposed technique. Comparing the two techniques confirmed that the BWM makes the traditional HEART faster and more reliable by performing the basic comparisons.

• 한국심리학회지 : 문화 및 사회문제
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.537-567
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• 2023

본 연구는 잔인한 범죄현장으로부터 비롯된 혐오 정서와 성 소수자인 피고인에 대한 고정관념에서 나온 혐오 정서의 속성 및 각 혐오 정서가 증거평가와 법적 판단에 미치는 영향을 비교하고자 하였다. 총 600명의 참가자(남 300명, 평균 44.40)가 혐오 정서의 출처(범죄현장, 성 소수자 피고인, 통제조건), 추가 무죄 증거의 존부(있음, 없음), 그리고 사법적 지시문 존부 조건(있음, 없음)에 무작위로 할당되었다. 연구결과 핵심적 혐오(physical disgust) 요소가 강한, 잔인한 범죄현장 조건에서 나온 혐오 정서가 피고인이 성 소수자인 경우의 혐오 정서보다 유의미하게 높았으며, 제시된 증거를 더 유죄방향으로 해석하였고, 피고인이 유죄일 확률을 더 높게 보았다. 눈에 띄는 것은 혐오 출처가 성 소수자인 조건에서는 혐오 정서와 유죄확률 판단 간에 증거평가가 유의미한 조절 변인이었으나 통제조건과 범죄현장 조건에서는 그렇지 않았다는 점으로, 이는 피고인이 성 소수자일 경우 유발된 혐오 정서가 법적 판단에 미치는 영향은 직접적이지 않을 수 있음을 의미한다. 또한, 지시문의 제시는 형량을 유의미하게 감소시켰고, 사후 단순 효과(simple effect) 분석 결과 오직 통제조건에서만 지시문 제시가 유죄확률을 낮추었다. 이는 범죄현장이나 피고인의 특성에서 비롯된 혐오 정서는 지시문으로는 교정되기 어려운 사건관련 정서(integral emotion)로 인식될 수 있다는 것을 추론케 한다. 분석 결과 성 소수자 조건에서 범죄현장 조건과 통제조건에서보다 피고인에 대한 동정심이 높게 나타났는데, 이는 성 소수자에 대해서는 혐오 외에 동정심이라는 정서적 반응이 나타날 수 있다는 것을 보여준다. 이 결과를 기반으로 혐오 정서의 본질(physical disgust/moral disgust), 혐오의 출처 및 정도에 따른 법적 판단, 그리고 성 소수자인 피고인에 대한 혐오와 동정심의 의미에 대해 논의하였다.