Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회지)

The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회)
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Designing an Input Parameters Setting Model for Reducing the Difficulty of Input Parameters Estimations in Cross Impact Analysis

기술상호효과분석의 입력변수 추정 난이도 경감을 위한 입력변수 설정모형의 설계

  • Jun, Jungchul (National Research Council of Science & Technology) ;
  • Kwon, Cheolshin (Sungkyunkwan University, Department of Systems Management Engineering)
  • 전정철 (국가과학기술연구회) ;
  • 권철신 (성균관대학교 시스템경영공학과)
  • Received : 2014.08.25
  • Accepted : 2017.05.22
  • Published : 2017.05.31
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Abstract

As the technology convergence paradigm emerges, the need for "CIA techniques" to analyze the mutual effects of technology is increasing. However, since the CIA input parameter estimation is difficult, the present study suggests a "CIA input parameter setting model" to alleviate the difficulty of CIA input parameter estimation. This paper is focused on the difference of measurement difficulty by each scale which expert's estimation behavior was defined as measurement activity quantifying the judgment of future technology. Therefore, this model is designed to estimate the input variable as a sequence or isometric scale that is relatively easy to measure, and then converts it into a probability value. The input parameter setting model of the CIA technique consists of three sub-models : 'probability value derivation model', 'influence estimation model', and 'impact value calculation model', in order to develop a series of models the Thurstone V model, Regression Analysis, etc has been used.

Keywords

References

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