• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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• v.14 no.8
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• pp.695-701
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• 2004

This study is to suggest a Probabilistic design determining configurations of slider air bearings with the dimensional manufacturing tolerances of the ABS. The probabilistic design problem is formulated to minimize the variation in flying height from a target value while satisfying the desired probabilities keeping the pitch and roll angles within a suitable range. The proposed approach first selves the deterministic optimization problem. Then, beginning with this solution, the RBDO is continued with the probabilistic constraints affected by the random variables with a fixed standard deviation in normal distribution. The RBDO results are directly compared with the values of the initial design and the results of the deterministic optimization, respectively. The reliability analyses are performed by the descriptive sampling (DS) to show the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed approach. It is demonstrated that the Proposed RBDO approach can efficiently obtain an optimum solution satisfying all the desired probabilistic constraints.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.53-57
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• 2001

This paper presents the new methods of fault diagnosis through multiple alarm processing of protective relays and circuit breakers in power systems using probabilistic neural networks. In this paper, fault section detection neural network (FSDNN) for fault diagnosis is designed using the alarm information of relays or circuit breakers. In contrast to conventional methods, the proposed FSDNN determines the fault section directly and fast. To show the possibility of the proposed method, it is simulated through simulation panel for Sinyangsan substation system in KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation) and the case studies show the effectiveness of the probabilistic neural network mehtod for the fault diagnosis.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.1-11
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• 2013

In this study, probabilistic reliability analysis was conducted for hybrid rocket performance using Monte-Carlo Simulation. For the accuracy, reliability analysis was performed with experimental data. To simplify the analysis process, the oxidizer was supplied with constant pressure, so that pressure variation with time can be eliminated. And time-space averaged regression rate model was used. The regression rate is obtained with a series of experiments. For reliability analysis of thrust, constant exponent of regression rate is assumed that has probabilistic character. So, the efficiency of characteristic velocity has also probabilistic values. As a results, probability distribution of the thrust is obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation using random samples of the input parameter and validated under the 95% confidence level.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.55 no.11
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• pp.453-462
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• 2006

This paper evaluates the reliability of KEPCO system using TRELSS, which is a probabilistic reliability evaluation program for large-scaled power system. In order to reflect the characteristic of KEPCO system, the sensitivity of reliability indices such as LOLP, EDLC, EENS and Energy Curtailment for variations of TRELSS parameter and input data was analyzed. Additionally, probabilistic reliability of KEPCO system reflecting sensitivity analysis results was systematically evaluated and simulated. Finally, maximum acceptable FOR of KEPCO system to satisfy reliability criterion, which meet in process of establishing the basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand is suggested.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2007.07a
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• pp.61-62
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• 2007

This paper evaluates probabilistic reliability of KEPCO system using TRELSS, which is a probabilistic reliability evaluation program for large-scaled power system. In order to systematically evaluate probabilistic reliability of KEPCO system, contingency cases causing load loss in (N-1) & (N-2) contingency depth was analyzed and reliability indices such as LOLP, EDLC, EENS according to change of FOR was calculated.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2004.11b
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• pp.78-82
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• 2004

This paper suggests the power system reliability evaluation fur transmission lines planning in composite power systems. In recent the importance and necessity of some studies on reliability evaluation of grid comes from the recent black-out accidents occurred in the world. Since probabilistic criterion can reflect recognize the probabilistic nature of system components, the application of probabilistic criterion has received a lot of attention. This paper introduces features and operation modes of the Transmission Reliability Evaluation fur Large-Scale Systems(TRELSS) Version 6.2, a program made in EPRI, for assessing reliability indices of composite power system. The characteristics of the TRELSS program are illustrated by the case studies using the KEPCO system.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.49-59
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• 2004

The paper describes the preliminary ship design method using deterministic approach and probabilistic approach. In deterministic approach, there are computational aspects to applying not only the integration concurrently of principal dimension decisions and hull form variations but also hydrostatic coefficients that applied to optimization iterative process. Therefore, this paper developed that actual design concept at the preliminary ship design more than sequential design which separated in principal dimension decisions and hull form variations. Furthermore, a probabilistic approach at the preliminary ship design is applied to efficiently solve design information uncertainty that compared to deterministic approach.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.91-99
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• 2019

Fragility analysis is an effective tool that is frequently used for seismic risk assessment of bridges. There are three different approaches to derive a fragility curve: experimental, empirical and analytical. Both experimental and empirical methods to derive fragility curve are based on past earthquake reports and expert opinions which are not suitable for all bridges. Therefore, analytical fragility analysis becomes important. Nonlinear time history analysis is commonly used which is the most reliable method for determining probabilistic demand models. In this study, to determine the probabilistic demand models of bridges, time history analyses were performed considering both material and geometrical nonlinearities. Serviceability limit states for three different service velocities were considered as a performance goal. Also, support displacements, component yielding and collapse limits were taken into account. Both serviceability and component fragility were derived by using maximum likely hood methods. Finally, the seismic performance and critical members of the bridge were probabilistically determined and clearly presented.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.167-177
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• 2023

A probabilistic micromechanical framework is proposed to quantify numerically the self-healing capabilities of polymers containing microcapsules. A two-step self-healing process is designed in this study: A probabilistic micromechanical framework based on the ensemble volume-averaging method is derived for the polymers, and a hitting probability model combined with a crack nucleation model is then utilized for encountering microcapsules and microcracks. Using this framework, a series of parametric investigations are performed to examine the influence of various model parameters (e.g., the volume fraction of microcapsules, microcapsule radius, radius ratio of microcracks to microcapsules, microcrack aspect ratio, and scale parameter) on the self-healing capabilities of the polymers. The proposed framework is also implemented into a finite element code to solve the self-healing behavior of tapered double cantilever beam specimens.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.26 no.B
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• pp.83-92
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• 2006

A probabilistic analysis model. one of reliability analysis methods introducing the concept of variables, was developed to investigate the uncertainty of dominant factors influencing the degree of consolidation in the radial consolidation theories. Based on the developed probabilistic analysis model, sensitivity study of those factors was performed to find their trends of affecting the degree of consolidation in the vertical drain method. Various radial consolidation theories, proposed by Barron(1948), Hansbo(1979), Yoshikuni(1979) and Onoue(1988), were used for this parametric study with the influencing factors such as size of smear zone, reduction ratio of permeability in the smear zone, discharge capacity, permeability for horizontal flow and coefficient of consolidation for horizontal flow. As results of this sensitivity study, for the given consolidation theory, contribution of each factor to the degree of consolidation was figure out and compared to each other. For the given value of each factor, the sensitivity to the degree of consolidation in the various theories was evaluated and their applicability and limitations were assessed.