• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.44-52
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• 2014

Generally, the most difficult works at scheduling are to estimate the duration of activities and linkages between them because the possibility that the duration and linkages could be exposed to the uncertainties is so high. When estimating a project duration, therefore, the probabilistic estimation of the duration as well as the probabilistic estimation of the linkages between activities should be considered concurrently. The PERT that is one of the most popular techniques applied for the probabilistic estimation of a project duration can not consider the uncertainties of the linkages because it only estimates the probabilistic duration limited to 'FS0' relationship. The purpose of this study is to propose the new method "PLET" for stochastically estimating the project duration based on the probabilistic estimation of the BDM's relationships, and also provide more wide and various probabilsitic information about the project duration by it.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.279-300
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• 2015

Present research was carried out on the level of exploration to verify that good luck increases probabilistic framing effect but bad luck decrease the effect. And we organized an experiment that designed experience of luck (good luck vs. bad luck vs. control) ${\times}$ probabilistic frame (high vs. low) and observed whether people response based on probabilistic frame or not. As a result, we observed the two-way interaction where experience of good luck increased probabilistic framing effect, while experience of bad luck decreased the effect (Figure 1). We expect to see more studies of contextual framing effect besides probabilistic frame (e.g., positive vs. negative; loss related to context vs. loss irrelevant to context).

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.9 no.11
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• pp.125-133
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• 2019

In this paper, probabilistic flood risk maps were produced for levee break caused by possible flood scenarios. The results of the previous studies were employed for flood stages corresponding to hydrological extreme event quantified uncertainties and then predicted the location of a levee breach. The breach width was estimated by combining empirical equation considered constant width and numerical modeling considered uncertainties on compound geotechnical component. Accordingly, probabilistic breach outflow was computed and probabilistic inundation map was produced by 100 runs of 2D inundation simulation based on reliability analysis. The final probabilistic flood risk map was produced by combining probabilistic inundation map based on flood hazard mapping methodology. The outcomes of the study would be effective in establishing specified emergency actin plan (EAP) and expect to suggest more economical and stable design index.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.26 no.9
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• pp.25-35
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• 2010

Settlement at reclamation area caused by secondary compression should be considered using spatial evaluating method because the thickness of consolidation layer varies at every location. Probabilistic method can be implemented to evaluate uncertainty of spatial distribution of secondary compression. This study spatially evaluated mean and standard deviation of secondary compression in the overall analyzing region using spatial distribution of consolidation thickness estimated by ordinary kriging method and statistical values of soil properties. And then, the area where secondary compression exceeds a design criterion at the specific time was evaluated using probabilistic method. It was observed that the area exceeding the design criterion increased as the variability of $C_{\alpha}/(1+e_o)$ increased or the probabilistic design criterion 0: decreased. It is considered that the probabilistic method can be used for the geotechnical design of soft ground when a probabilistic design criterion is established in the specification.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.55-64
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• 2024

The disaster impact assessment system was introduced in 2005 as a disaster prevention procedure for comprehensive and systematic developmental projects. However, according to the 'Practical Guidelines for Disaster Impact Assessment', Jeju Island's unique hydrogeological features necessitate the calculation of isohyetal-based probabilistic rainfall, which can reflect altitude, when estimating probabilistic rainfall for flood volume determination, rather than using conventional methods. Despite Jeju Island being centered around Hallasan, there are three Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) located at the summit of Hallasan, making weather stations denser than in other cities and provinces. Therefore, it is judged that there would be no difficulty in applying conventional methods, such as utilizing the probabilistic rainfall data from the weather stations or employing the Thiessen method, to estimate flood volumes for small-scale project areas. Accordingly, this study conducts a comparative analysis of the impact of applying general probabilistic rainfall from weather stations and isohyetal-based probabilistic rainfall in site in the context of Jeju Island's disaster impact assessment system.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.97-111
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• 2011

Modeling creep of concrete has been one of the most challenging problems in concrete. Over the years, research has proven the significance of creep and its ability to influence structural behavior through loss of prestress, violation of serviceability limit states or stress redistribution. Because of this, interest in modeling and simulation of creep has grown significantly. A research program was planned to investigate the significance of different factors affecting creep of concrete. This research investigation is divided into two folds: first, an in-depth study of the RILEM creep database and development of a homogenous database that can be used for blind computational analysis. Second: developing a probabilistic Bayesian screening method that enables identifying the significance of the different factors affecting creep of concrete. The probabilistic analysis revealed a group of interacting parameters that seem to significantly influence creep of concrete.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.58 no.4
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• pp.700-707
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• 2009

The application of renewable energy in electric power systems is growing rapidly in order to make provision for the inequality of the climate, the dwindling supplies of coal, oil and natural gas and a further rise in oil prices. Solar cell generators(SCG) is one of the fastest growing renewable energy. This paper presents a methodology on probabilistic production cost simulation of a power system including SCGs. The generated power by SCGs is variable due to the random variation of solar radiation. In order to solve this problem, the SCGs is modeled as multi-state operational model in this paper. Probabilistic production cost of a power system can be calculated by proposed method considering SCGs with multi-state. The results show that the impacts of SCGs added to a power system can be analyzed in view point of production cost using the proposed method.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.334-342
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• 2012

Data association is important technology which designate final destination in the target tracking. The joint probabilistic data association(JPDA) algorithm provides excellent ability to maintain track on multiple targets. Currently, it is not easily implemented in real time because of track coalescence & switch. The aim of this paper is to develop probabilistic filters that increase JPDA's sensitivity and decrease track coalescence & switch in a cluttered environments.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.1-6
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• 2011

The conventional factor of safety as used in geotechnical engineering does not reflect the degree of uncertainty of the relevant parameters. Then in the geotechnical engineering, there have been efforts to reflect the uncertainties of the geotechnical properties through probabilistic analysis. In this study, a practical method for probabilistic analysis using the Hasofer-Lind reliability index is introduced. The method is based on the perspective of an ellipsoid that just touches the failure surface in the original space of the variables. The method is applied to prefabricated vertical drains (PVD) and compared with the result of Monte Carlo Simulation method.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.71-74
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• 2006

This study shows the historical background, and work flow of PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) method which devised by NASA during the space development. It also illustrates the possibility of adoption of the method to evaluation of reliability KSLV project.