• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic study

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A Probabilistic Study on Thickness Effect of Fracture Toughness in Heterogeneous Brittle Materials (불균질 취성재료 파괴인성에 미치는 두께효과의 확률적 연구)

  • Kim, Am-Kee;Koh, Sung-Wi;Jung, Gyoo-Dong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.1356-1362
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    • 1996
  • Fracture toughness of heterogeneous brittle materials such as poly crystalline ceramics used to present the size (thickness) effect as well as statistically distributed results. There is belief that both(size effect and scatter) must be associated with each other. However, no generally accepted theory has been established so far. Using statistical approach, a probabilistic modeling for the fracture toughness which describes the thickness effect was attempted in this paper, Weibull distribution of specific fracture energy(SFE)at local areas and Griffith criterion are applied to the model. In addition, the newly developed model was verified with experimental results of alumina.

Signal Synthesis and Feature Extraction for Active Sonar Target Classification (능동소나 표적 인식을 위한 신호합성 및 특징추출)

  • Uh, Y.;Seok, J.W.
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2015
  • Various approaches to process active sonar signals are under study, but there are many problems to be considered. The sonar signals are distorted by the underwater environment, and the spatio-temporal and spectral characteristics of active sonar signals change in accordance with the aspect of the target even though they come from the same one. And it has difficulties in collecting actual underwater data. In this paper, we synthesized active target echoes based on ray tracing algorithm using target model having 3-dimensional highlight distribution. Then, Fractional Fourier transform was applied to synthesized target echoes to extract feature vector. Recognition experiment was performed using probabilistic neural network classifier.

Probabilistic Approach for Evaluation of the Fault Activity (확률론적 방법에 의한 단층의 활동도 평가)

  • Chang, Chun-Joong;Choi, Weon-Hack;Yun, Kwan-Hee;Park, Dong-Hee;Im, Chang-Bock
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2006
  • Since early 1990's, several Quaternary faults have been found in the southeastern part of the Korean peninsula with reference to fault activity. Because some of these faults could be considered a capable fault, it is a very delicate matter, which need to be deal with carefully in assessing the seismic hazard. In determining whether or not a faults are capable, because of the low rate of seismicity and insufficient relationship between instrumental macro-seismicity and fault, there has been considerable debate among geologists and geophysicists in Korea. In this study, we discuss the criteria and probabilistic approaches that are used to assess whether or not a fault is seismogenic. And, we preliminarily also suggest the probability of fault activity from the spatial association between faults and earthquake epicenters, fault slip and tectonic stress, and geological evidence for multiple episodes of reactivation.

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Probabilistic analysis of Italian extreme winds : Reference velocity and return criterion

  • Ballio, G.;Lagomarsino, S.;Piccardo, G.;Solari, G.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.51-68
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    • 1999
  • Applying and extending some preceding researches, this paper proposes a map of Italian extreme winds assigning the reference velocity, i.e., the wind velocity averaged over 10 minutes, at 10 m height, in a flat open terrain, with 50 years mean return period, depending on the site and the altitude. Furthermore, an objective criterion is formulated by which the actual values of the local wind velocity are given as a function of the reference velocity. The study has been carried out in view of the revision of the Italian Standards dealing with safety and loads and the introduction of the aeolic Italian map into Eurocode 1.

Analysis of Capacity Factors and Capacity Credits for Wind Turbines Installed in Korea (국내 풍력발전 설비의 이용률과 용량크레딧 분석)

  • Paik, Chunhyun
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2019
  • The capacity credit (CC) is a key metric for mid- to long-term power system capacity planning. The purpose of this study is to estimate the CCs of domestic wind turbines. Based on hourly capacity factor (CF) data during the seven years from 2011 to 2017, the new so-called probabilistic CF scheme is introduced to effectively reflect the variability of CFs on CC estimation. The CCs are then estimated through the CF-based method and the ELCC (Effective Load Carrying Capability) method reflecting the probabilistic CF scheme, and the results are compared. The results show that the CC value 0.019 for domestic wind turbines proposed in the $8^{th}$ Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand corresponds to the CC with a confidence level slightly lower than 95%.

Architectural model driven dependability analysis of computer based safety system in nuclear power plant

  • Wakankar, Amol;Kabra, Ashutosh;Bhattacharjee, A.K.;Karmakar, Gopinath
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.463-478
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    • 2019
  • The most important non-functional requirements for dependability of any Embedded Real-Time Safety Systems are safety, availability and reliability requirements. System architecture plays the primary role in achieving these requirements. Compliance with these non-functional requirements should be ensured early in the development cycle with appropriate considerations during architectural design. In this paper, we present an application of system architecture modeling for quantitative assessment of system dependability. We use probabilistic model checker (PRISM), for dependability analysis of the DTMC model derived from system architecture model. In general, the model checking techniques do not scale well for analyzing large systems, because of prohibitively large state space. It limits the use of model checking techniques in analyzing the systems of practical interest. We propose abstraction based compositional analysis methodology to circumvent this limitation. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been demonstrated using the case study involving the dependability analysis of safety system of a large Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR).

Development of logical structure for multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment

  • Lim, Ho-Gon;Kim, Dong-San;Han, Sang Hoon;Yang, Joon Eon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.1210-1216
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    • 2018
  • Site or multi-unit (MU) risk assessment has been a major issue in the field of nuclear safety study since the Fukushima accident in 2011. There have been few methods or experiences for MU risk assessment because the Fukushima accident was the first real MU accident and before the accident, there was little expectation of the possibility that an MU accident will occur. In addition to the lack of experience of MU risk assessment, since an MU nuclear power plant site is usually very complex to analyze as a whole, it was considered that a systematic method such as probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is difficult to apply to MU risk assessment. This paper proposes a new MU risk assessment methodology by using the conventional PSA methodology which is widely used in nuclear power plant risk assessment. The logical failure structure of a site with multiple units is suggested from the definition of site risk, and a decomposition method is applied to identify specific MU failure scenarios.

Development of probabilistic primary water stress corrosion cracking initiation model for alloy 182 welds considering thermal aging and cold work effects

  • Park, Jae Phil;Yoo, Seung Chang;Kim, Ji Hyun;Bahn, Chi Bum
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.1909-1923
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    • 2021
  • We experimentally investigated the effects of thermal aging and cold work on the microstructure, mechanical properties, and primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) initiation time for Alloy 182 welds. The effects of thermal aging and cold work on the PWSCC initiation time of Alloy 182 were modeled based on the plastic energy concept and the PWSCC initiation data of this study and previous reports by considering censored data. Based on the results, it is estimated that the PWSCC resistance of the Alloy 182 weld firstly increases and then decreases with thermal aging time when the applied stress is kept constant.

A study on the reliability and life of hypoid gear axle (하이포이드 기어 액슬의 신뢰성 및 수명에 관한 연구)

  • Han, S.Y.;Kim, H.S.;Kang, H.Y.;Yang, S.M.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.123-131
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    • 1996
  • This paper presents the development of an algorithm for the reliability and life of a hypoid gear axle system (located in the last section of power train) in heavy vehicles. The algorithm is developed about expecting the reliability and service-life for applied loads on each component in the system using the Weibull's probabilistic distribution and the extended Palmgren's model. The probabilistic method is used to results. Also this model is involved in predicting the failure which is related to the number of load cycles with the approaching load. Then the precious evaluation of the reliability and life in the axle system can be effectively carried out. Thus the general procedures of a reliability and life design, including the mathematical formulation and numerical examples, are illustrated for a hypoid gear axle system.

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A Study on the Probability and Actual Probability of Probabilistic Items in Mobile Games (모바일게임에서 확률형 아이템의 고시 확률과 실제 확률의 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Jong-Min;Kim, Jung-Sun;Kim, Hyo-Nam
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2020.07a
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    • pp.521-524
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    • 2020
  • 국내 모바일 MMORPG 시장에서 구글플레이 스토어, 앱 스토어의 매출 순위를 보면 순위 안에 있는 게임 중에 가챠 시스템이 없는 게임을 찾기가 힘들 정도로 모바일게임에서 가챠 시스템은 게임의 전체 매출에서 많은 비중을 차지한다. 과거 가챠 시스템으로 인하여 사행성과 과금 유도가 너무 심해져 2015년 확률형 아이템 규제 법안이 발의되어 현재까지 게임회사들은 확률을 공개해왔다. 하지만 공개된 확률에는 유저들이 모르는 큰 오류가 존재한다. 본 논문에서 그 오류를 알아보고 모바일 게임 가챠 시스템의 건전성을 확보하기 위한 방안을 제시하고자 한다.

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