• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic study

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Structural Health Monitoring Methodology based on Outlier Analysis using Acceleration of Subway Stations (가속도 응답을 이용한 이상치 해석 기반 역사 구조 건전성 평가 기법 개발)

  • Shin, Jeong-Ryol;An, Tae-Ki;Lee, Chang-Gil;Park, Seung-Hee
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.10a
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    • pp.281-286
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    • 2011
  • Station structures, one of important infrastructures, which have been being operated since the 1970s, are especially vulnerable to even the medium-level earthquake and they could be damaged by long-term internal or external vibrations such as ambient vibrations. Recently, much attention has been paid to real-time monitoring of the fatal defect or long-term deterioration of civil infrastructures to ensure their safety and adequate performance throughout their life span. In this study, a structural health monitoring methodology using acceleration responses is proposed to evaluate the health-state of the station structures and to detect initial damage-stage. A damage index is developed using the acceleration data and it is applied to outlier analysis, one of unsupervised learning based pattern recognition methods. A threshold value for the outlier analysis is determined based on confidence level of the probabilistic distribution of the acceleration data. The probabilistic distribution is selected according to the feature of the collected data.

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Probabilistic study of the influence of ground motion variables on response spectra

  • Yazdani, Azad;Takada, Tsuyoshi
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.877-893
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    • 2011
  • Response spectra of earthquake ground motions are important in the earthquake-resistant design and reliability analysis of structures. The formulation of the response spectrum in the frequency domain efficiently computes and evaluates the stochastic response spectrum. The frequency information of the excitation can be described using different functional forms. The shapes of the calculated response spectra of the excitation show strong magnitude and site dependency, but weak distance dependency. In this paper, to compare the effect of the earthquake ground motion variables, the contribution of these sources of variability to the response spectrum's uncertainty is calculated by using a stochastic analysis. The analytical results show that earthquake source factors and soil condition variables are the main sources of uncertainty in the response spectra, while path variables, such as distance, anelastic attenuation and upper crust attenuation, have relatively little effect. The presented formulation of dynamic structural response in frequency domain based only on the frequency information of the excitation can provide an important basis for the structural analysis in some location that lacks strong motion records.

Analytic Model for Optimal Checkpoints in Mobile Real-time Systems

  • Lim, Sung-Hwa;Lee, Byoung-Hoon;Kim, Jai-Hoon
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.3689-3700
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    • 2016
  • It is not practically feasible to apply hardware-based fault-tolerant schemes, such as hardware replication, in mobile devices. Therefore, software-based fault-tolerance techniques, such as checkpoint and rollback schemes, are required. In checkpoint and rollback schemes, the optimal checkpoint interval should be applied to obtain the best performance. Most previous studies focused on minimizing the expected execution time or response time for completing a given task. Currently, most mobile applications run in real-time environments. Therefore, it is extremely essential for mobile devices to employ optimal checkpoint intervals as determined by the real-time constraints of tasks. In this study, we tackle the problem of determining the optimal inter-checkpoint interval of checkpoint and rollback schemes to maximize the deadline meet ratio in real-time systems and to build a probabilistic cost model. From this cost model, we can numerically find the optimal checkpoint interval using mathematical tools. The performance of the proposed solution is evaluated using analytical estimates.

Statistical Analysis of Resistance of Reinforced Concrete Members (철근콘크리트 부재강도의 확률적 특성 분석)

  • 김상효;배규웅;박흥석
    • Magazine of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.117-123
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    • 1991
  • It is widely recognized that the strengths of reinforced concrete members have random characteristics due to the variability of the mechanical properties of concrete and steel, the dimensional error as well as incorrect placement of reinforcing bars. Statistical models of the variabilities of strengths of reinforced concrete members, therefore, need to be developed to evaluate the safety level implied in current practices. Based on the probabilistic models of basic factors affecting the R.C. member strengths, in this study, the probabilistic characteristics of member resistance have been studied through Monte Carlo simulation.

A STUDY ON A PROBABILISTIC MULTI-LOCATION PROBLEM IN A TWO-ECHELON LOGISTIC SYSTEM FOR DETERIORATING ITEMS

  • Hwang, Heung-Seok;Hwang, Hak
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 1981
  • A special case of the probabilistic multi-location problem is studied in a two-echelon logistic system for deteriorating items. The objective is to determine the location of the minimum number of supply centers among a discrete set of location sites of supply centers, such that the probability each retailer being covered by some supply center is not less than a specified value. A logistic cost is introduced as performance measure of the system, and leads us to analyze the impact of deterioration rate on the location problem. The results obtained from numerical examples are discussed, which provides effective guidelines that can be used for the logistic managerial decisions.

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Probabilistic Analysis for Longitudinal Displacement due to Skew Angle of Bridges under Scenario Earthquakes (모의 지진하중에 의한 교량의 사가에 따른 축방향변위에 대한 확률론적 해석)

  • 전환석;이대형;정영수
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.553-558
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    • 1998
  • Since the mid of the 20th century in the world, it has been observed that the number of minor or moderate earthquake motions tend to be increased year by year. Owing to the topographical condition, moreover, large numbers of skew bridges have been constructed for the requirements of more than DB18 ton bridge in Korea. It has been also observed from foreign countries that lots of superstructures collapse in bridge were occurred in previous earthquakes, inclusive of 1995 Kobe earthquake. This is caused by a relative displacement between the upper and lower structure of bridge by the earthquake and the rotation with respect to the vertical axis of skew bridges, which were subjected to and earthquake motion. In this study, the probabilistic analysis of unseating failure of skew bridges under scenario earthquake has been carried out by evaluating the longitudinal displacement of skew bridges.

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A Comparative Study on Probabilistic Structural Design Optimization (확률론적 구조설계 최적화기법에 대한 비교연구)

  • 양영순;이재옥
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.213-224
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    • 2001
  • 확률론적 구조설계 최적화는 구조물의 역학적 특성이나 하중의 불확실성이나 임의성과 같은 변동성을 정량적이고 합리적으로 고려할 수 있다는 점에서 기존의 전통적인 확정론적 최적화와 비교된다. 확률론적 최적화의 방법론으로는 개선된 일계이차모멘트법을 이용하는 신뢰도지수에 기반한 접근법(MPFP search)이 널리 알려져 있으며, 최근 목표성능치에 기반한 접근법(MPTP search)이 새롭게 제안되었다. 본 논문에서는 이들 두 가지 접근법에 대한 정식화를 수행하고, 특히 탐색과정에서 소모적인 반복계산을 발견하고 제거하는 알고리즘을 제시하였다. 예제에서 두 접근법에 의한 확률론적 최적화를 수행하고 구조설계 최적화의 관점에서 두 접근법의 장단점을 비교·검토하였다.

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Probabilistic Optimal Weekly Coordination of Thermal-Pumped Storage Power System based on the Maximum Principle (최대원리에 의한 화력-양수발전시스템의 확률적 운전시뮬레이션 모델)

  • Lee, Bong-Yong;Shim, Keon-Bo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1991.07a
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    • pp.411-416
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    • 1991
  • Operation simulation is a key factor to evaluate investment and operation in a power utility. Probabilistic production simulation is of major concern. With pumped-storage plant, production simulation is not an easy task, because its economy should fully be exploited. In addition, usual operation interval is a week rather than a day. Most existing models are based on approximate production simulation such as adopting simple priority orders of generations. This study is based on the more elaborate model developed by authors. Further, a policy of weekly coordination is established based on the Maximum Principle. Chronological load curve instead of usual load duration curve is used and the accuracy in simulation is enhahced. Resulting economics are compared. Deviation between these two toad curve is shown.

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Probabilistic Production Cost Credit Evaluation of Wind Turbine Generators (풍력발전기의 확률론적 발전비용 절감기여도 평가)

  • Park, Jeong-Je;Wu, Liang;Choi, Jae-Seok;Cha, Jun-Min
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.312-314
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    • 2008
  • This paper develops an algorithm for probabilistic production cost credit evaluation of wind turbine generators (WTG) with multi-state. Renewable energy resources such as wind, wave, solar, micro hydro, tidal and biomass etc. are becoming importance stage by stage because of considering effect of the environment. Wind energy is one of the most successful sources of renewable energy for the production of electrical energy. Case study demonstrates that the wind speed credit in view point of economics can be assessed by using the proposed methodology.

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Probabilistic Reliability Based Grid Expansion Planning of Power System Including Wind Turbine Generators

  • Cho, Kyeong-Hee;Park, Jeong-Je;Choi, Jae-Seok
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.698-704
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    • 2012
  • This paper proposes a new methodology for evaluating the probabilistic reliability based grid expansion planning of composite power system including the Wind Turbine Generators. The proposed model includes capacity limitations and uncertainties of the generators and transmission lines. It proposes to handle the uncertainties of system elements (generators, lines, transformers and wind resources of WTG, etc.) by a Composite power system Equivalent Load Duration Curve (CMELDC)-based model considering wind turbine generators (WTG). The model is derived from a nodal equivalent load duration curve based on an effective nodal load model including WTGs. Several scenarios are used to choose the optimal solution among various scenarios featuring new candidate lines. The characteristics and effectiveness of this simulation model are illustrated by case study using Jeju power system in South Korea.