• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.2081-2091
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• 2013

Recently, the demand on the practical application of life-cycle cost effectiveness for design and rehabilitation of civil infrastructure is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Accordingly, in the 21st century, it is almost obvious that life-cycle cost together with value engineering will become a new paradigm for all engineering decision problems in practice. However, in spite of impressive progress in the researches on the LCC, the most researches have only focused on the Deterministic or Probabilistic LCC analysis approach and general bridge at design stage. Thus, the goal of this study is to develop a practical and realistic methodology for the Life-Cycle Cost LCC-effective optimum decision-making based on reliability analysis of bridges at design stage. The proposed updated methodology is based on the concept of Life Cycle Performance(LCP) which is expressed as the sum of present value of expected direct/indirect maintenance costs with expected optimal maintenance scenario. The updated LCC methodology proposed in this study is applied to the optimum design problem of an actual highway bridge with Cable Stayed Bridges. In conclusion, based on the application of the proposed methods to an actual example bridge, it is demonstrated that a updated methodology for performance-based LCC analysis proposed in this thesis, shown applicably in practice as a efficient, practical, process LCC analysis method at design stage.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.15-25
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• 2012

Probabilistic design methods have been used as a design standard in Korea and abroad for achieving reasonable design by considering the statistical uncertainties of soil properties. In this study, the following techniques for reflecting geotechnical uncertainty are analyzed: quantification of the uncertainties of geotechnical random variables, and consideration of economic feasibility in design by minimizing the uncertainties related to the number of samples. To quantify the uncertainties, the techniques were applied to soil properties obtained from samples collected and tested in the field. The results showed an underestimation of the standard deviation by the 3-sigma approach in comparison with calculations using data from the samples. This finding indicates that economical design is possible in terms of probability. However, when compared with the Bayesian approach, which does not consider the number of samples, variability in the 3-sigma approach is underestimated for some variables. This finding also indicates a safety issue, whereas the number of samples based on the Bayesian approach showed the lowest variance. The variance of the probability density function showed a marked decrease with increasing number of samples, to converge at a certain level when the number exceeds 25. Of note, the estimation of values is more reliable for random variables having low variability, such as soil unit weight, and can be obtained with a small number of samples.

• Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.635-662
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• 2016

Combinatorics, the basis of probabilistic thinking, is an important area of mathematics and closely linked with other subjects such as informatics and STEAM areas. But combinatorics is one of the most difficult units in school mathematics for leaning and teaching. This study, using the designed combinatorial models and executable expression, aims to analyzes the eye movement of graduate students when they translate the written combinatorial problems to the corresponding executable expression, and examines not only the understanding process of the written combinatorial sentences but also the degree of difficulties depending on the combinatorial semantic structures. The result of the study shows that there are two types of solving process the participants take when they solve the problems : one is to choose the right executable expression by comparing the sentence and the executable expression frequently. The other approach is to find the corresponding executable expression after they derive the suitable mental model by translating the combinatorial sentence. We found the cognitive processing patterns of the participants how they pay attention to words and numbers related to the essential informations hidden in the sentence. Also we found that the student's eyes rest upon the essential combinatorial sentences and executable expressions longer and they perform the complicated cognitive handling process such as comparing the written sentence with executable expressions when they try the problems whose meaning structure is rarely used in the school mathematics. The data of eye movement provide meaningful information for analyzing the cognitive process related to the solving process of the participants.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.147-157
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• 2011

As a background study to apply the reliability-based resistance factors to the domestic concrete bridge design code, a comparative study is conducted for the design results and the reliability indexes obtained by adopting different resistance factor formats to yield the design strength of concrete structures. The design results which are calculated by applying the section resistance factors of the current domestic design code and the material resistance factors of Eurocode are compared for the concrete beam bridge. The reliability index is calculated by considering the uncertainties involved in material, dimension and strength equation during the design procedure to get the strength of concrete structure. Also, the sensitivity analysis is performed to figure out which design variables have great impact on the reliability index. The resistance factors of the current domestic bridge design code, AASHTO LRFD and Eurocode are applied to the bridge design for flexure and shear strength and the results show that the resistance factors of the domestic code give the largest reliability indexes. It is observed that the probabilistic distribution of the live load makes difference for the reliability index and the yield strength of reinforcing steel and the live load have great impact on the reliability of both flexural and shear strength of concrete beam through the sensitivity analysis.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.335-343
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• 2007

Drought characteristics need to be preceded before establishing a drought mitigation plan. In this study, using a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a hydrologic drought was defined as an event during which the SPIs are continuously below a certain truncation level. Then, a methodology of drought frequency analysis was performed to quantitatively characterize droughts considering drought duration and severity simultaneously. The theory of runs was used to model drought recurrence and to determine drought properties like duration and severity. Short historical records usually do not allow reliable bivariate analyses. However, more than hundred years of precipitation data (1770 ${\sim}$ 1907) collected in Chosun Kingdom Age using an old Korean rain gage called Chukwooki can provide valuable information about past events. It is shown that a bivariate gamma distribution well represented the joint probabilistic properties of Korean drought duration and severity. The overall results of this study show that the proposed bivariate drought frequency analysis overcomes the drawbacks of the conventional univariate frequency analysis by providing a consistent representation of the drought recurrent property.

• The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.95-103
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• 2014

In this study, we monitored the residues of organophosphate pesticides (OP) in eight fruit vegetables grown in Korea, and assessed risk levels of acute and chronic exposure of OP through the consumption of fruit vegetables. Chlorpyrifos, EPN, methidathion and phosphamidon in eight fruit vegetables were detected in this study. The results of cumulative assessment of national estimated short term intake for acute exposure of OP were due to the following order; eggplant, tomato, squash and cucumber. Total theoretical maximum daily intake calculated at first step of chronic exposure assessment for registered OP in Korea was 76.14%, compared with acceptable daily intake ADI) based on chlorpyrifos. In addition, total national estimated maximum daily intake calculated at second step of chronic exposure assessment was 13.949%, compared with ADI. Third chronic assessment was conducted by probabilistic approach using OP residues detected in eight fruit vegetables and showed that total exposure risk was very low, corresponding to 0.0001% compared to ADI. Based on those finding, the risk of organophosphate pesticides in fruit vegetables was considered quantitatively negligible. In future, further investigation to expand the target should be followed to do more accurate and detailed risk assessment.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.732-753
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• 2017

Recently, when evaluating the technology values in the fields of biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and medicine, we have needed more to estimate those values in consideration of the period and cost for the commercialization to be put into in future. The existing discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations in that it can not consider consecutive investment or does not reflect the probabilistic property of commercialized input cost of technology-applied products. However, since the value of technology and investment should be considered as opportunity value and the information of decision-making for resource allocation should be taken into account, it is regarded desirable to apply the concept of real options, and in order to reflect the characteristics of business model for the target technology into the concept of volatility in terms of stock price which we usually apply to in evaluation of a firm's value, we need to consider 'the continuity of stock price (relatively minor change)' and 'positive condition'. Thus, as discussed in a lot of literature, it is necessary to investigate the relationship among volatility, underlying asset values, and cost of commercialization in the Black-Scholes model for estimating the technology value based on real options. This study is expected to provide more elaborated real options model, by mathematically deriving whether the ratio of the present value of the underlying asset to the present value of the commercialization cost, which reflects the uncertainty in the option pricing model (OPM), is divided into the "no action taken" (NAT) area under certain threshold conditions or not, and also presenting the estimation logic for option values according to the observation variables (or input values).

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.179-187
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• 2018

This study purpose is to improve athletes by investigating the relation between the leadership behavior type of athletes and athlete satisfaction and exercise flow. The sampling method was non-probabilistic sampling method. The number of questionnaires was 381 for analyzing the data. SPSS/PC+ Window 21.0 version statistical program were used for analyzing the questionnaire answers. Frequency analysis, factor analysis, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were used. The study results are as follows. First, there were positive correlations between leadership behavior type of athletes and athlete satisfaction and exercise flow, but not between authoritative behavior of leader behavior type and exercise flow. Second, the effect of leadership behavior type of athletes on satisfaction of athletes was positive on social interaction related with training, instruction, and social support, on task execution related with training and instruction, and on coaching related with training, instruction, and positive feedback. Third, the effect of leadership behavior type of athletes on flow of exercise was positive on cognitive commitment related with training, instructions and positive feedback, and on behavioral commitment related with training, instructions, positive feedback, and social interaction. So, athletes will be able to perform good exercise skills if they come to the game in flowing exercise satisfaction and exercise.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.177-195
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• 2017

This study attempts to infer research fronts using factor graph model based on heterogeneous features. The model suggested by this study infers research fronts having documents with the potential to be cited multiple times in the future. To this end, the documents are represented by bibliographic, network, and content features. Bibliographic features contain bibliographic information such as the number of authors, the number of institutions to which the authors belong, proceedings, the number of keywords the authors provide, funds, the number of references, the number of pages, and the journal impact factor. Network features include degree centrality, betweenness, and closeness among the document network. Content features include keywords from the title and abstract using keyphrase extraction techniques. The model learns these features of a publication and infers whether the document would be an RF using sum-product algorithm and junction tree algorithm on a factor graph. We experimentally demonstrate that when predicting RFs, the FG predicted more densely connected documents than those predicted by RFs constructed using a traditional bibliometric approach. Our results also indicate that FG-predicted documents exhibit stronger degrees of centrality and betweenness among RFs.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.38-47
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• 2011

This study focused on health risk assessment via multi-routes of As exposure to establish a target cleanup level (TCL) in abandoned mines. Soil, ground water, and rice samples were collected near ten abandoned mines in November 2009. The As contaminations measured in all samples were used for determining the probabilistic health risk by Monte-Carlo simulation techniques. The human exposure to As compound was attributed to ground water ingestion. Cancer risk probability (R) via ground water and rice intake exceeded the acceptable risk range of $10^{-6}{\sim}10^{-4}$ in all selected mines. In particular, the MB mine showed the higher R value than other mines. The non-carcinogenic effects, estimated by comparing the average As exposure with corresponding reference dose were determined by hazard quotient (HQ) values, which were less than 1.0 via ground water and rice intake in SD, NS, and MB mines. This implied that the non-carcinogenic toxic effects, due to this exposure pathway had a greater possibility to occur than those in other mines. Besides, hazard index (HI) values, representing overall toxic effects by summed the HQ values were also greater than 1.0 in SD, NS, JA, and IA mines. This revealed that non-carcinogenic toxic effects were generally occurred. The As contaminants in all selected mines exceeded the TCL values for target cancer risk ($10^{-6}$) through ground water ingestion and rice intake. However, the As level in soil was greater than TCL value for target cancer risk via inadvertent soil ingestion pathway, except for KK mine. In TCL values for target hazard quotient (THQ), the As contaminants in soil did not exceed such TCL value. On the contrary, the As levels in ground water and polished rice in SD, NS, IA, and MB mines were also beyond the TCL values via ground water and rice intake. This study concluded that the health risks through ground water and rice intake were greater than those though soil inadvertent ingestion and dermal contact. In addition, it suggests that the abandoned mines to exceed the risk-based TCL values are carefully necessary to monitor for soil remediation.