• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic study

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Analytical and experimental exploration of sobol sequence based DoE for response estimation through hybrid simulation and polynomial chaos expansion

  • Rui Zhang;Chengyu Yang;Hetao Hou;Karlel Cornejo;Cheng Chen
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.113-130
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    • 2023
  • Hybrid simulation (HS) has attracted community attention in recent years as an efficient and effective experimental technique for structural performance evaluation in size-limited laboratories. Traditional hybrid simulations usually take deterministic properties for their numerical substructures therefore could not account for inherent uncertainties within the engineering structures to provide probabilistic performance assessment. Reliable structural performance evaluation, therefore, calls for stochastic hybrid simulation (SHS) to explicitly account for substructure uncertainties. The experimental design of SHS is explored in this study to account for uncertainties within analytical substructures. Both computational simulation and laboratory experiments are conducted to evaluate the pseudo-random Sobol sequence for the experimental design of SHS. Meta-modeling through polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is established from a computational simulation of a nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) structure to evaluate the influence of nonlinear behavior and ground motions uncertainties. A series of hybrid simulations are further conducted in the laboratory to validate the findings from computational analysis. It is shown that the Sobol sequence provides a good starting point for the experimental design of stochastic hybrid simulation. However, nonlinear structural behavior involving stiffness and strength degradation could significantly increase the number of hybrid simulations to acquire accurate statistical estimation for the structural response of interests. Compared with the statistical moments calculated directly from hybrid simulations in the laboratory, the meta-model through PCE gives more accurate estimation, therefore, providing a more effective way for uncertainty quantification.

Markov-based time-varying risk assessment of the subway station considering mainshock and aftershock hazards

  • Wei Che;Pengfei Chang;Mingyi Sun
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.303-316
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    • 2023
  • Rapid post-earthquake damage estimation of subway stations is particularly necessary to improve short-term crisis management and safety measures of urban subway systems after a destructive earthquake. The conventional Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework with constant earthquake occurrence rate is invalid to estimate the aftershock risk because of the time-varying rate of aftershocks and the uncertainty of mainshock-damaged state before the occurrence of aftershocks. This study presents a time-varying probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework for underground structures considering mainshock and aftershock hazards. A discrete non-omogeneous Markov process is adopted to quantify the time-varying nature of aftershock hazard and the uncertainties of structural damage states following mainshock. The time-varying seismic risk of a typical rectangular frame subway station is assessed under mainshock-only (MS) hazard and mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) hazard. The results show that the probabilities of exceeding same limit states over the service life under MSAS hazard are larger than the values under MS hazard. For the same probability of exceedance, the higher response demands are found when aftershocks are considered. As the severity of damage state for the station structure increases, the difference of the probability of exceedance increases when aftershocks are considered. PSDR=1.0% is used as the collapse prevention performance criteria for the subway station is reasonable for both the MS hazard and MSAS hazard. However, if the effect of aftershock hazard is neglected, it can significantly underestimate the response demands and the uncertainties of potential damage states for the subway station over the service life.

Revisiting Horton Index Using a Conceptual Soil Water Balance Model (개념적인 토양수분수지 모형을 이용한 Horton 지수의 재논의)

  • Choi, Daegyu;Kim, Sangdan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5B
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    • pp.471-477
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    • 2010
  • In this study, the variability of the Horton index which is ratio of vaporization and wetting water is investigated using a conceptual soil water balance model. From the proposed model, the steady-state soil water probabilistic density function is derived through meteorological and watershed characteristics and then the sensitivity of Horton index to the precipitation occurrence rate and the mean of wet day precipitation is examined. As a result, the inter-annual variability of the Horton index is lower than that of precipitation and they showed the strong negative correlation. It is also shown that although precipitation is not varied, the Horton index can be varied due to the fluctuation of the precipitation occurrence rate and the mean of wet day precipitation. In addition, it is presented that there is a non-linear relationship which has a critical point switching proportional or inverse relationship between the Horton index and two main characteristics of precipitation process.

Random Variable State and Response Variability (확률변수상태와 응답변화도)

  • Noh, Hyuk-Chun;Lee, Phill-Seung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.6A
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    • pp.1001-1011
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    • 2006
  • It is a general agreement that exact statistical solutions can be found by a Monte Carlo technique. Due to difficulties, however, in the numerical generation of random fields, which satisfy not only the probabilistic distribution but the spectral characteristics as well, it is recognized as relatively difficult to find an exact response variability of a structural response. In this study, recognizing that the random field assumes a constant over the domain under consideration when the correlation distance tends to infinity, a semi-theoretical solution of response variability is proposed for general structures. In this procedure, the probability density function is directly used. It is particularly noteworthy that the proposed methodology provides response variability for virtually any type of probability density function, and has capability of considering correlations between multiple random variables.

Development of Fragility Curves for Slope Stability of Levee under Rapid Drawdown (수위급강하에 대한 제방 사면의 취약도 곡선 작성)

  • Cho, Sung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.39 no.10
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2023
  • To effectively manage flood risk, it is crucial to assess the stability of flood defense structures like levees under extreme flood conditions. This study focuses on the time-dependent probabilistic assessment of embankment slope stability when subjected to rapid water level drops. We integrate seepage analysis results from finite element analysis with slope stability analysis and employ Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the time-dependent behavior of the slope during rapid drawdown. The resulting probability of failure is used to develop fragility curves for the levee slope. Notably, the probability of slope failure remains low up to a specific water level, sharply increasing beyond that threshold. Furthermore, the fragility curves are strongly influenced by the rate of drawdown, which is determined through hydraulic analysis based on flood scenarios. Climate change has a significant impact on the stability of the water-side slope of the embankment due to water level fluctuations.

Task offloading scheme based on the DRL of Connected Home using MEC (MEC를 활용한 커넥티드 홈의 DRL 기반 태스크 오프로딩 기법)

  • Ducsun Lim;Kyu-Seek Sohn
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2023
  • The rise of 5G and the proliferation of smart devices have underscored the significance of multi-access edge computing (MEC). Amidst this trend, interest in effectively processing computation-intensive and latency-sensitive applications has increased. This study investigated a novel task offloading strategy considering the probabilistic MEC environment to address these challenges. Initially, we considered the frequency of dynamic task requests and the unstable conditions of wireless channels to propose a method for minimizing vehicle power consumption and latency. Subsequently, our research delved into a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based offloading technique, offering a way to achieve equilibrium between local computation and offloading transmission power. We analyzed the power consumption and queuing latency of vehicles using the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) and deep Q-network (DQN) techniques. Finally, we derived and validated the optimal performance enhancement strategy in a vehicle based MEC environment.

Development of Design Blast Load Model according to Probabilistic Explosion Risk in Industrial Facilities (플랜트 시설물의 확률론적 폭발 위험도에 따른 설계폭발하중 모델 개발)

  • Seung-Hoon Lee;Bo-Young Choi;Han-Soo Kim
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2024
  • This paper employs stochastic processing techniques to analyze explosion risks in plant facilities based on explosion return periods. Release probability is calculated using data from the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), along with annual leakage frequency per plant provided by DNV. Ignition probability, derived from various researchers' findings, is then considered to calculate the explosion return period based on the release quantity. The explosion risk is assessed by examining the volume, radius, and blast load of the vapor cloud, taking into account the calculated explosion return period. The reference distance for the design blast load model is determined by comparing and analyzing the vapor cloud radius according to the return period, historical vapor cloud explosion cases, and blast-resistant design guidelines. Utilizing the multi-energy method, the blast load range corresponding to the explosion return period is presented. The proposed return period serves as a standard for the design blast load model, established through a comparative analysis of vapor cloud explosion cases and blast-resistant design guidelines. The outcomes of this study contribute to the development of a performance-based blast-resistant design framework for plant facilities.

Deformation Monitoring of Subway Track using by Automatic Measurement (자동화계측을 통한 지하철 궤도 변형 모니터링연구)

  • Jung-Youl Choi;Jae-Min Han
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.579-584
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    • 2024
  • Currently, large-scale, deep construction is being carried out adjacent to subway tracks in korea. when excavating adjacent to each other, it is very important to ensure the safety of earth retaining structures and underground structures. therefore, we are managing the safety of the subway by introducing an automated measurement system. deformation of the subway track during adjacent excavation may affect train running stability. this is a factor that can be linked to train derailments. however, current subway track safety evaluation using automated measurement systems relies only on the maximum value of measured data. therefore, a method to improve the usability of automated measurement system results is needed. in this study, we utilized a technique that can quantitatively evaluate the measurement results of a large amount of subway track deformation. a safety evaluation was conducted on subway track deformation due to adjacent excavation using a vast amount of data using probabilistic statistical analysis techniques.

Financial Fraud Detection using Data Mining: A Survey

  • Sudhansu Ranjan Lenka;Bikram Kesari Ratha
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.24 no.9
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    • pp.169-185
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    • 2024
  • Due to levitate and rapid growth of E-Commerce, most of the organizations are moving towards cashless transaction Unfortunately, the cashless transactions are not only used by legitimate users but also it is used by illegitimate users and which results in trouncing of billions of dollars each year worldwide. Fraud prevention and Fraud Detection are two methods used by the financial institutions to protect against these frauds. Fraud prevention systems (FPSs) are not sufficient enough to provide fully security to the E-Commerce systems. However, with the combined effect of Fraud Detection Systems (FDS) and FPS might protect the frauds. However, there still exist so many issues and challenges that degrade the performances of FDSs, such as overlapping of data, noisy data, misclassification of data, etc. This paper presents a comprehensive survey on financial fraud detection system using such data mining techniques. Over seventy research papers have been reviewed, mainly within the period 2002-2015, were analyzed in this study. The data mining approaches employed in this research includes Neural Network, Logistic Regression, Bayesian Belief Network, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Self Organizing Map(SOM), K-Nearest Neighbor(K-NN), Random Forest and Genetic Algorithm. The algorithms that have achieved high success rate in detecting credit card fraud are Logistic Regression (99.2%), SVM (99.6%) and Random Forests (99.6%). But, the most suitable approach is SOM because it has achieved perfect accuracy of 100%. But the algorithms implemented for financial statement fraud have shown a large difference in accuracy from CDA at 71.4% to a probabilistic neural network with 98.1%. In this paper, we have identified the research gap and specified the performance achieved by different algorithms based on parameters like, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Some of the key issues and challenges associated with the FDS have also been identified.

A comparative study of different radial basis function interpolation algorithms in the reconstruction and path planning of γ radiation fields

  • Yulong Zhang;Jinjia Cao;Biao Zhang;Xiaochang Zheng;Wei Chen
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.7
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    • pp.2806-2820
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    • 2024
  • Accurate reconstruction of radiation field and path planning are very important for the safety of operators in the process of dismantling nuclear facilities. Based on radial basis function (RBF) interpolation algorithm, this paper discussed the application of inverse multiquadric radial basis Function (IMRBF) interpolation method to the reconstruction of gamma radiation field, and proved the feasibility of reconstructing a radiation field with multiple γ sources. The average relative errors of IMRBF interpolation results were 4.28% and 8.76%, respectively, for the experimental scenarios with single and double gamma sources. After comparing the consistency between the simulated scene and the experimental scene, IMRBF method and Cubic Spline method were respectively used to reconstruct the gamma radiation field by Geant4 simulation data. The results showed that the interpolation accuracy of IMRBF method was superior to that of Cubic Spline method. Further, more RBF interpolation algorithms were used to reconstruct the multi-γ source radiation field, and then the Probabilistic Roadmap (PRM) algorithm was used to optimize the human walking path in the radiation field reconstructed by different interpolation methods. The optimal paths in radiation fields generated by multiple interpolation methods were compared. The results herein contribute to a comprehensive understanding of RBF interpolation methods in reconstructing γ radiation fields and their application in optimizing paths in radiation environments. The insights may provide valuable information for decision-making in radiation protection during the decommissioning of nuclear facilities.