• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.51-61
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• 2006

An efficient and accurate hybrid reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper to quantify the risk of an axially loaded single pile considering pile-soil interaction behavior and uncertainties in various design variables. The proposed method intelligently integrates the concepts of the response surface method, the finite difference method, the first-order reliability method, and the iterative linear interpolation scheme. The load transfer method is incorporated into the finite difference method for the deterministic analysis of a single pile-soil system. The uncertainties associated with load conditions, material and section properties of a pile and soil properties are explicitly considered. The risk corresponding to both serviceability limit state and strength limit state of the pile and soil is estimated. Applicability, accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method in the safety assessment of a realistic pile-soil system subjected to axial loads are verified by comparing it with the results of the Monte Carlo simulation technique.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.107-115
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• 2020

This paper introduces the first vital area identification (VAI) process for the physical protection of nuclear power plants (NPPs) during low power and shutdown (LPSD) operation. This LPSD VAI is based on the 3rd generation VAI method which very efficiently utilizes probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) event trees (ETs). This LPSD VAI process was implemented to the virtual NPP during LPSD operation in this study. Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) had developed the 2nd generation full power VAI method that utilizes whole internal and external (fire and flooding) PSA results of NPPs during full power operation. In order to minimize the huge burden of the 2nd generation full power VAI method, the 3rd generation full power VAI method was developed, which utilizes ETs and minimal PSA fault trees instead of using the whole PSA fault tree. In the 3rd generation full power VAI method, (1) PSA ETs are analyzed, (2) minimal mitigation systems for avoiding core damage are selected from ETs by calculating system-level target sets and prevention sets, (3) relatively small sabotage fault tree that has the systems in the shortest system-level prevention set is composed, (4) room-level target sets and prevention sets are calculated from this small sabotage fault tree, and (5) the rooms in the shortest prevention set are defined as vital areas that should be protected. Currently, the 3rd generation full power VAI method is being employed for the VAI of Korean NPPs. This study is the first development and application of the 3rd generation VAI method to the LPSD VAI of NPP. For the LPSD VAI, (1) many LPSD ETs are classified into a few representative LPSD ETs based on the functional similarity of accident scenarios, (2) a few representative LPSD ETs are simplified with some VAI rules, and then (3) the 3rd generation VAI is performed as mentioned in the previous paragraph. It is well known that the shortest room-level prevention sets that are calculated by the 2nd and 3rd generation VAI methods are identical.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.37-44
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• 2020

This study investigated the probability of foodborne illness caused by raw oyster consumption contaminated with high risk Vibrio species such as V. vulnificus and V. cholerae. Eighty-eight raw oyster samples were collected from the south coast, west coast and Seoul areas, and examined for the prevalence of high risk Vibrio species. The growth patterns of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in raw oysters were evaluated, and consumption frequency and amounts for raw oyster were investigated from a Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. With the collected data, a risk assessment simulation was conducted to estimate the probability of foodborne illness caused by intake of raw oysters, using @RISK. Of 88 raw oysters, there were no V. vulnificus- or V. cholerae-positive samples. Thus, initial contamination levels of Vibrio species in raw oysters were estimated by the statistical methods developed by Vose and Sanaa, and the estimated value for the both Vibrio spp. was -3.6 Log CFU/g. In raw oyster, cell counts of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae remained unchanged. The incidence of raw oyster consumers was 0.35%, and the appropriate probabilistic distribution for the consumption amounts was the exponential distribution. A risk assessment simulation model was developed with the collected data, and the probability of the foodborne illness caused by the consumption of raw oyster was 9.08×10^-15 for V. vulnificus and 8.16×10^-13 for V. cholerae. Consumption frequency was the first factor, influencing the probability of foodborne illness.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.9
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• pp.724-731
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• 2016

As the structural damage caused by earthquakes has been gradually increasing, estimating the seismic fragility of structures has become essential for earthquake preparation. Seismic fragility curves are widely used as a probabilistic indicator of structural safety against earthquakes, and many researchers have made efforts to develop them in a more accurate and effective manner. However, most of the previous research studies used simplified 2D analytical models when deriving fragility curves, mainly to reduce the numerical simulation time; however, in many cases 2D models are inadequate to accurately evaluate the seismic behavior of a structure and its seismic vulnerability. Thus, this study provides a way to derive more accurate, but still effective, seismic fragility curves by using 3D analytical models. In this method, the reliability analysis software, FERUM, is integrated with the structural analysis software, ZEUS-NL, enabling the automatic exchange of data between these two software packages, and the first order reliability method (FORM), which is not a sampling-based method, is utilized to calculate the structural failure probabilities. These tools make it possible to conduct structural reliability analyses effectively even with 3D models. By using the proposed method, this study conducted a seismic vulnerability assessment of RC frame structures with their 3D analytical models.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.389-397
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• 1998

For an effective and efficient management of large amounts of preservice/inservice inspection(PSI/ISI) data in nuclear power plants, an intellegent Windows 95-based data management program was developed. This program enables the prompt extraction of previously conducted PSI/ISI conditions and results so that the time-consuming data management, painstaking data processing and analysis in the past are avoided. The program extracts, and the associated remedies. Furthermore, additional inspection data and comments can be easily added or deleted for subsequent PSI/ISI operation. Although the initial version of the program was applied to Kori nuclear power plant, this program can be equally applied to other nuclear power plant. And also this program can be used to offer the fundamental data for application of evaluation data related to fracture mechanics analysis(FMA), probabilistic reliability assessment(PRA) of PSI/ISI results, performance demonstration initiative(PDI) and risk-informed ISI based on probability of detection(POD) information of ultrasonic examination. Besides, the program can be further developed as a unique PSI/ISI data management expert system that can be apart of PSI/ISI data management expert system that can be a part of PSI/ISI Total Support System(TSS) for Korean nuclear power plants.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.94-101
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• 2021

According to the Facility Management System (FMS) operated by the Korea Authority of Land & Infrastructure Safety, it is expected that the number of aging facilities that have been in use for more than 30 years will increase rapidly to 13.9% in 2019 and 34.5% in 2929, and end up with a social problem. In addition, with the revision of "Common Application of Seismic Design Criteria" by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security in 2017, it is mandatory to re-evaluate all existing road facilities and if necessary seismic reinforcement should be done to minimize the magnitude of earthquake damage and perform normal road functions. The seismic performance management-decision support technology currently used in seismic performance management practice in Korea only determines the earthquake-resistance reinforcement priority based on the qualitative index value for the seismic performance of individual facilities. However with this practice, normal traffic functions cannot be guaranteed. A new seismic performance management decision support technology that can provide various judgment data required for decision making is needed to overcome these shortcomings and better perform seismic performance management from a road network perspective.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.484-491
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• 2005

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) analyzes potential hazard of microorganisms on public health and offers structured approach to assess risks associated with microorganisms in foods. This paper addresses specific risk management questions associated with Staphylococcus aureus in kimbab and improvement and dissemination of QMRA methodology, QMRA model was developed by constructing four nodes from retail to table pathway. Predictive microbial growth model and survey data were combined with probabilistic modeling to simulate levels of S. aureus in kimbab at time of consumption, Due to lack of dose-response models, final level of S. aureus in kimbeb was used as proxy for potential hazard level, based on which possibility of contamination over this level and consumption level of S. aureus through kimbab were estimated as 30.7% and 3.67 log cfu/g, respectively. Regression sensitivity results showed time-temperature during storage at selling was the most significant factor. These results suggested temperature control under $10^{\circ}C$ was critical control point for kimbab production to prevent growth of S. aureus and showed QMRA was useful for evaluation of factors influencing potential risk and could be applied directly to risk management.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.10
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• pp.853-865
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• 2014

Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship need to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated modeling process and inputs. However, the systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, two major innovations are introduced to address this situation. The first is the use of a Hierarchical Bayesian model based regional frequency analysis to better convey uncertainties associated with the parameters of probability density function to the dam risk analysis. The second is the use of Bayesian model coupled HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. A reservoir routing analysis with the existing operation rule was performed to convert the inflow scenarios into water surface level scenarios. Performance functions for dam risk model was finally employed to estimate hydrologic dam risk analysis. An application to the Dam in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable estimates of dam safety, and an assessment of their sensitivity to the initial water surface level.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.747-754
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• 2021

Purpose: Seismic safety evaluation of a curved bridge must be performed since the curved bridges exhibit the complex behavior rather than the straight bridges, due to geometrical characteristics. In order to conduct the probabilistic seismic assessment of the curved bridge, Seismic fragility evaluation was performed using the uncertainty of the steel material properties of a curved bridge girde, in this study. Method: The finite element (FE) model using ABAQUS platform of the curved bridge girder was constructed, and the statistical parameters of steel materials presented in previous studies were used. 100 steel material models were sampled using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. As an input ground motion in this study, seismic fragility evaluation was performed by the normalized scale of the Gyeongju earthquake to 0.2g, 0.5g, 0.8g, 1.2g, and 1.5g. Result: As a result of the seismic fragility evaluation of the curved girder, it was found that there was no failure up to 0.03g corresponding to the limit state of allowable stress design, but the failure was started from 0.11g associated with using limit state design. Conclusion: In this study, seismic fragility evaluation was performed considering steel materials uncertainties. Further it must be considered the seismic fragility of the curved bridge using both the uncertainties of input motions and material properties.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.51-59
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• 2020

This study evalutated the risk of foodborne illness from Vibrio spp. (Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio cholerae) through sea squirt consumption. The prevalence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in sea squirt was evaluated, and the predictive models to describe the kinetic behavior of the Vibrio in sea squirt were developed. Distribution temperatures and times were collected, and they were fitted to probabilistic distributions to determine the appropriate distributions. The raw data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2016 were used to estimate the consumption rates and amount of sea squirt. In the hazard characterization, the Beta-Poisson model for V. vulnificus and V. cholerae infection was used. With the collected data, a simulation model was prepared and it was run with @RISK to estimate probabilities of foodborne illness by pathogenic Vibrio spp. through sea squirt consumption. Among 101 sea squirt samples, there were no V. vulnificus positive samples, but V. cholerae was detected in one sample. The developed predictive models described the fates of Vibrio spp. in sea squirt during distribution and storage, appropriately shown as 0.815-0.907 of R² and 0.28 of RMSE. The consumption rate of sea squirt was 0.26%, and the daily consumption amount was 68.84 g per person. The Beta-Poisson model [P=1-(1+Dose/β)^-α] was selected as a dose-response model. With these data, a simulation model was developed, and the risks of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae foodborne illness from sea squirt consumption were 2.66×10^-15, and 1.02×10^-12, respectively. These results suggest that the risk of pathogenic Vibrio spp. in sea squirt could be considered low in Korea.