• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.125-135
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• 2004

Industrial structure systems may have nonlinearity, and are also sometimes exposed to the danger of random excitation. This paper proposes a method to analyze response and reliability design of a complex nonlinear structure system under random excitation. The nonlinear structure system which is subjected to random process is modeled by finite element method. The nonlinear equations are expanded sequentially using the perturbation theory. Then, the perturbed equations are solved in probabilistic methods. Several statistical properties of random process that are of interest in random vibration applications are reviewed in accordance with the nonlinear stochastic problem.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.28-30
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• 2003

Probabilistic Load Flow(PLF) solution based on the method of moments is used for security assessment of bus voltages in power systems. Bus voltages, line currents, line admittances, generated real and reactive power, and bus loads are treated as complex random variables. These complex random variables are known in terms of probability density functions(PDF). Also, expressions for the convolutions of complex random variables in terms of moments and cumulants have been derived. Proposed PLF solution using the method of moments is fast, because the process of convolution of various complex random variables is performed in moment and cumulant domain. Therefore, the method is applied to security assessment of power systems in this paper. Finally, system operator also can be used information of security assessment to improve reliability of power systems.

• International Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2019

In this paper, the probabilistic free vibration analysis of a geometrically coupled cantilever wing with uncertain material properties is carried out using stochastic finite element (SFEM) based on first order perturbation technique. Here, both stiffness and damping of the system are considered as random parameters. The bending and torsional rigidities are assumed as spatially varying second order Gaussian random fields and represented by Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion. Here, the expected value, standard deviation, and probability distribution of random natural frequencies and damping ratios are computed. The results obtained from the present approach are also compared with Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). The results show that the uncertain bending rigidity has more influence on the damping ratio and frequency of modes 1 and 3 while uncertain torsional rigidity has more influence on the damping ratio and frequency of modes 2 and 3.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.303-315
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• 2024

This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for estimating accumulative damage of bridge structures under multiple seismic excitations, in the framework of site-specific probabilistic hazard analysis. Specifically, a typical earthquake-prone region in China is chosen to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to find the mean annual rate (MAR) of ground motion intensity at a specific level, based on which, a mass of ground motion observations is selected to construct random earthquake sequences with various number of shocks. Then, nonlinear time history analysis is implemented on the finite element (FE) model of a RC girder bridge at the site of interest, to investigate structural responses under different earthquake sequences, and to develop predictive model for cumulative damage computation, in which, a scalar seismic intensity measure (IM) is adopted and its performance in damage prediction is discussed by an experimental column. Furthermore, a mathematic model is established to calculate occurrence probability of earthquakes with various number of shocks, based on PSHA and homogenous Poisson random process, and a modified cumulative damage indicator is proposed, accounting for probabilistic occurrence of various earthquake scenarios. At end, the applicability of the proposed methodology to main shock and aftershock scenarios is validated, and characteristics of damage accumulation under different multiple earthquake scenarios are discussed.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.106-121
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• 2020

항 외곽시설 신뢰성 설계가 합리적으로 구현하기 위해서는 우리나라 해양환경 특성이 반영된 확률모형이 필요하며 이러한 시각에서 본 연구에서는 천 해역 확률모형 개발을 위한 기초연구의 일부로 불규칙 파랑 천수 과정을 수치 모의하였다. 수치 모의는 자연해안에서 흔히 관측되는 사주가 원빈에 형성된 해안을 대상으로 수행하였으며 파랑모형은 spatially filtered Navier-Stokes Eq., LES[Large Eddy Simulation], one equation dynamic Smagorinsky turbulence closure 등으로 구성하였다. 불규칙 파랑은 우리나라 동해안에서 관측되는 너울 특성을 반영하기 위해 다양한 첨두 증강계수를 지니는 JONSWAP 스펙트럼과 random phase method를 사용하여 모의하였다. 파고분포의 모수는 먼저 수치 모의에서 관측된 자유수면 시계열 자료를 threshold crossing method로 파별 해석[wave by wave analysis]하여 개별 파랑을 특정하고, 이어 이렇게 특정된 파마루와 파곡 빈도 해석결과로부터 산출하였다. 모의결과 현재 천 해역 파고분포를 대표하는 수정 Glukhovskiy 파고분포는 큰 파고와 작은 파고 발생확률은 과다하게, 중간 크기 파고 발생확률은 과소하게 평가하는 것으로 모의 되었으며, 이에 반해 본 논문에서 제시된 파고분포의 경우 일치도가 상당하였다. 또한, 전술한 수정 Glukhovskiy 파고분포와의 간극은 쇄파역에서 제일 현저하게 관측되어 수정 Glukhovskiy 파고분포를 쇄파역 언저리에 거치되는 외곽시설 신뢰성 설계에 적용하는 일은 지양되어야 할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지진공학회 2001년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집 Proceedings of EESK Conference-Fall 2001
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• pp.243-250
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• 2001

Industrial machines are sometimes exposed to the danger of earthquake. In the design of a mechanical system, this factor should be accounted for from the viewpoint of reliability. A method to analyze a complex nonlinear structure system under random excitation is proposed. First, the actual random excitation, such as earthquake, is approximated to the corresponding Gaussian process far the statistical analysis. The modal equations of overall system are expanded sequentially. Then, the perturbed equations are synthesized into the overall system and solved in probabilistic way. Several statistical properties of a random process that are of interest in random vibration applications are reviewed in accordance with nonlinear stochastic problem. The obtained statistical properties of the nonlinear random vibration are evaluated in each substructure. Comparing with the results of the numerical simulation proved the efficiency of the proposed method.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.70-79
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• 2020

This paper describes a comparative study of characteristics of probabilistic design using various reliability analysis methods in the structure design of an automatic salt collector. The thickness sizing variables of the main structural member were considered to be random variables, including the uncertainty of corrosion, which would be an inevitable hazard in the work environment of the automatic salt collector. Probabilistic performance functions were selected from the strength performances of the automatic salt collector structure. First-order reliability method, second-order reliability method, mean value reliability method, and adaptive importance sampling method were applied during the reliability analyses. The probabilistic design performances such as reliability probability and numerical costs based on the reliability analysis methods were compared to the Monte Carlo simulation results. The adaptive importance sampling method showed the most rational results for the probabilistic structure design of the automatic salt collector.

• 한국해양공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국해양공학회 2001년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.232-237
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• 2001

The evaluation of specimen thickness effect of fatigue crack growth life by the simulation of probabilistic fatigue crack growth is presented. In this paper, the material resistance to fatigue crack growth is treated as a spatial stochastic process, which varies randomly on the crack surface. Using the previous experimental data, the non-Gaussian(eventually Weibull, in this report) random fields simulation method is applied. This method is useful to estimate the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life and the variability due to specimen thickness by simulating material resistance to fatigue crack growth along a crack path.

• 전기의세계
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.28-32
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• 1973

System modeling is applied in developing a probabilistic linear estimator for the load of an electric power system for the purpose of short term load forecasting. The model assumer that the load in given by the suns of a periodic discrete time serier with a period of 24 hour and a residual term such that the output of a discrete time dynamical linear system driven by a white random process and a deterministic input. And also we have established the main forecasting algorithms, which are essemtally the Kalman filter-predictor equations.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.1-11
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• 2013

In this study, probabilistic reliability analysis was conducted for hybrid rocket performance using Monte-Carlo Simulation. For the accuracy, reliability analysis was performed with experimental data. To simplify the analysis process, the oxidizer was supplied with constant pressure, so that pressure variation with time can be eliminated. And time-space averaged regression rate model was used. The regression rate is obtained with a series of experiments. For reliability analysis of thrust, constant exponent of regression rate is assumed that has probabilistic character. So, the efficiency of characteristic velocity has also probabilistic values. As a results, probability distribution of the thrust is obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation using random samples of the input parameter and validated under the 95% confidence level.