• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.271-279
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• 2018

Purpose: Probabilistic safety analysis was performed to enhance the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants because traditional deterministic approach has limitations in predicting the risk of failure by crack growth. The study introduces a probabilistic approach to establish a basis for probabilistic safety assessment of passive components. Methods: For probabilistic modeling of fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR), various FCGR tests were performed either under constant load amplitude or constant ${\Delta}K$ conditions by using heat treated X-750 at low temperature with adequate cathodic polarization. Bayesian inference was employed to update uncertainties of the FCGR model using additional information obtained from constant ${\Delta}K$ tests. Results: Four steps of Bayesian parameter updating were performed using constant ${\Delta}K$ test results. The standard deviation of the final posterior distribution was decreased by a factor of 10 comparing with that of the prior distribution. Conclusion: The method for developing a probabilistic crack growth model has been designed and demonstrated, in the paper. Alloy X-750 has been used for corrosion fatigue crack growth experiments and modeling. The uncertainties of parameters in the FCGR model were successfully reduced using the Bayesian inference whenever the updating was performed.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제30권11호
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• pp.1417-1424
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• 2006

In order to evaluate variation of fatigue life of mechanical components including engineering plastics, it is important to estimate probabilistic strain-life curves to accurately define the variation of fatigue characteristics. This paper intends to provide new assessment of P-$\varepsilon$-N (probabilistic strain-life curves) for considering the variation of fatigue characteristics in polyacetal. The fatigue strain controlled tests were conducted under constant 50% humidity and room temperature condition by a universal testing machine at strain ratio, R=0. A practical procedure is introduced to evaluate probabilistic strain-life curves. Three probabilistic distributions were used for generating P-$\varepsilon$-N curves such as normal, 2-parameter and 3-parameter Weibull. In this study, 3-parameter Weibull distribution was found to be most appropriate among assumed distributions when the probability distributions of the fatigue characteristic were examined using chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The more appropriate P-$\varepsilon$-N curves for these materials are generated by the proposed method considering 3-parameter Weibull distribution.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 1993년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.365-369
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• 1993

The reliability assessment of a simple porbabilistic fatigue analysis under random loading is proposed. Using the crack closure concept, the crack opening stress is assumed to be constant during random loading. The available loading history and test data are used for the comparison with the results of the reliability assessment of probabilistic fatigue analysis.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.348-353
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• 2005

In designing the structures of railway rolling stocks, deterministic methods associated with the concept of a safety factor have been traditionally used. The deterministic approaches based on the mean values of applied loads and material properties have been used as safety verification for the design of rolling-stock car body structures. The uncertainties in the applied loading for the high speed train and the strength of new materials in the rolling stocks require the application of probabilistic approaches to ensure fatigue safety in the desired system. Pressure loadings acting on the car body when the train passes through tunnels show reflected pressure waves for high-speed trains and they may cause a fatigue failure in vehicle bodies. Use of new material technology as body structures also introduces uncertainties in the material strength. A probabilistic approach is more adaptable in designing reliable structures when the pressure waves from the tunnels pounds and new material technology is adopted. In this paper, it is proposed that a fatigue design and assessment method based on a reliability which deals with the loading variations on a railway vehicle due to the pressure reflected in tunnels and the strength variations of material. Equation for the fatigue reliability index has been formulated to calculate the reliability assessment of a vehicle body under fluctuating pressure loadings in a tunnel. Considered in this formulation are the pressure distribution characteristics, the fatigue strength distribution characteristics, and the concept of stress-transfer functions due to the pressure loading.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.799-813
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• 2020

Fatigue cracks of rib-to-deck (RD) joints have been frequently observed in the orthotropic steel decks (OSD) using conventional U-ribs (CU). Thickened edge U-rib (TEU) is proposed to enhance the fatigue strength of RD joints, and its effectiveness has been proved through fatigue tests. In-depth full-scale tests are further carried out to investigate both the fatigue strength and fractography of RD joints. Based on the test result, the mean fatigue strength of TEU specimens is 21% and 17% higher than that of CU specimens in terms of nominal and hot spot stress, respectively. Meanwhile, the development of fatigue cracks has been measured using the strain gauges installed along the welded joint. It is found that such the crack remains almost in semi-elliptical shape during the initiation and propagation. For the further application of TEUs, the design curve under the specific survival rate is required for the RD joints using TEUs. Since the fatigue strength of welded joints is highly scattered, the design curves derived by using the limited test data only are not reliable enough to be used as the reference. On this ground, an experiment-numerical hybrid approach is employed. Basing on the fatigue test, a probabilistic assessment model has been established to predict the fatigue strength of RD joints. In the model, the randomness in material properties, initial flaws and local geometries has been taken into consideration. The multiple-site initiation and coalescence of fatigue cracks are also considered to improve the accuracy. Validation of the model has been rigorously conducted using the test data. By extending the validated model, large-scale databases of fatigue life could be generated in a short period. Through the regression analysis on the generated database, design curves of the RD joint have been derived under the 95% survival rate. As the result, FAT 85 and FAT 110 curves with the power index m of 2.89 are recommended in the fatigue evaluation on the RD joint using TEUs in terms of nominal stress and hot spot stress respectively. Meanwhile, FAT 70 and FAT 90 curves with m of 2.92 are suggested in the evaluation on the RD joint using CUs in terms of nominal stress and hot spot stress, respectively.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제57권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2020

In general, an inspection schedule is established based on the long-term fatigue life during the design stage. However, in the design stage, it is difficult to clearly identify the uncertainty factors affecting long-term fatigue life. In this study, the probabilistic fatigue life assessment was conducted in accordance with the methodology of DNV-GL. Firstly, The initial crack distribution estimated through the initial crack propagation analysis was updated by reflecting the results of crack inspection. Secondly, the updated crack distribution was compared with the initial crack distribution, and the probability of failure was updated with the effect of crack inspection.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.75-90
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• 2016

A probabilistic approach that combines structural demand hazard analysis with cumulative damage assessment is presented and applied to a steel tower of a wind turbine. The study presents the step by step procedure to compare the reliability over time of the structure subjected to fatigue, assuming: a) a binomial Weibull annual wind speed, and b) a traditional Weibull probability distribution function (PDF). The probabilistic analysis involves the calculation of force time simulated histories, fatigue analysis at the steel tower base, wind hazard curves and structural fragility curves. Differences in the structural reliability over time depending on the wind speed PDF assumed are found, and recommendations about selecting a real PDF are given.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.923-929
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• 2003

In this paper, an analysis of fatigue crack growth behavior from a statistical point of view has been carried out. Fatigue crack growth tests were conducted on sixteen pre-cracked compact tension (CT) specimens of the pressure vessel (SPV50) steel in controlled identical load and environmental conditions. The assessment of the statistical distribution of fatigue crack growth experimental data obtained from SPV50 steel was studied and also the correlation of the parameter C and m in the Paris-Erdogan law was discussed. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth life seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull. The fatigue crack growth rate seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull and the log-normal distribution. The coefficient of variation (COV) of fatigue crack growth life was observed to decrease as the crack grows. Fatigue crack growth rate data shows a normal distribution for both m and logC. A strong negative linear correlation exists between the coefficient C and the exponent m.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.1-12
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• 1999

Spectral fatigue damage calculations has been performed on four ships in order to assess the effect that the probabilistic modeling of sea states has on the estimated fatigue life. The damage estimation method is based on the Miner- Palmgren fatigue damage formulation and a spectral approach is used to determine the necessary variances of the stress processes. Both the horizontal and vertical hull girder bending induced stress process together with the local water pressure induced stress process is taken into account. The wave scatter diagrams are applied in the calculations and their fatigue severity is assessed by analyzing the results obtained with the ten scatter diagrams and the four ships. All four ships are analyzed both in full load and ballast conditions and while traveling at both full and reduced speed. It is found that the fatigue severity of a wave scatter diagram is dependent on several parameters, some of these being the extreme wave hight extrapolated from the scatter diagram and the mean zero up-crossing period in conjunction with the ship length . Based on these three parameters and expression is derived in order to calculate one single number describing the fatigue severity of a scatter diagram with respect to a certain ship.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.154-159
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• 2004

In this study, in order to perform more efficiently reliability design and integrity assessment of structural members, the relational database management program on the engineering plastics was constructed. This program contained 476 grades for 14 kinds of the engineering plastics and was developed using MS-access and MS-visualbasic. This program consists of 3 modules; search condition, probabilistic characteristics of material property, evaluation of P-S-N curve. We perform fatigue test for probabilistic durability analysis and this results input the database program to estimate P-S-N.