• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.3
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• pp.63-70
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• 2018

In this study, a simple probabilistic approach using equivalent coefficient of consolidation ($c_e$) was proposed to consider the spatial variability of coefficient of vertical consolidation ($c_v$), and the effect of the probability distribution of coefficient of consolidation on degree of consolidation in heterogeneous soil was investigated. The statistical characteristics of consolidation coefficient were estimated from 1,226 field data, and four probability distributions (Normal, Log-normal, Gamma, and Weibull) were applied to consider the effect of probability distribution. The random fields of coefficient of consolidation were generated based on Karhunen-Loeve expansion. Then, the equivalent coefficient of consolidation was calculated from the random field and used as the input value of consolidation analysis. As a result, the probabilistic analysis can be performed effectively by separating random field and numerical analysis, and probabilistic analysis was performed using a Latin hypercube Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the statistical properties of $c_e$ were changed by the probability distribution and spatial variability of $c_v$, and the probability distribution of $c_v$ has considerable effects on the probabilistic results. There was a large difference of failure probability depend on the probability distribution when the autocorrelation distance was small (i.e., highly heterogeneous soil). Therefore, the selection of a suitable probability distribution of $c_v$ is very important for reliable probabilistic analysis of consolidation.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.25-35
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• 2017

Liquefaction is one of the major seismic damage, and several methods have been developed to evaluate the possibility of liquefaction. Recently, a probabilistic approach has been studied to overcome the drawback of deterministic approaches, and to consider the uncertainties of soil properties. In this study, the spatial variability of cone penetration resistance was evaluated using CPT data from three locations having different variability characteristics to perform the probabilistic analysis considering the spatial variability of soil properties. Then the random fields of cone penetration resistance considering the spatial variability of each point were generated, and a probabilistic analysis of liquefaction induced settlement was carried out through CPT-based liquefaction evaluation method. As a result, the uncertainty of soil properties can be overestimated when the spatial variability is not considered, and significant probabilistic differences can occur up to about 30% depending on the allowable settlement.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.17 no.3_4
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• pp.483-492
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• 2004

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for the estimation of damage location and severity in bridge structures using Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). Generally, the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN)-based damage detection methods need a lot of training patterns for neural network learning process and the optimum architecture of a BPNN is selected by trial and error. In this paper, the PNN instead of the conventional BPNN is used as a pattern classifier. The modal properties of damaged structure are somewhat different from those of undamaged one. The basic idea of proposed algorithm is that the PNN classifies a test pattern which consists of the modal characteristics from damaged structure, how close it is to each training pattern which is composed of the modal characteristics from various structural damage cases. In this algorithm, two PNNs are sequentially used. The first PNN estimates the damage location using mode shape and the results of the first PNN are put into the second PNN for the damage severity estimation using natural frequency. The proposed damage assessment algorithm using the PNN is applied to a cable-stayed bridge to verify its applicability.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2002.09a
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• pp.300-307
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• 2002

Bridge foundation failure considering the effect of local scour around pier foundations under hi-directional seismic excitations is examined in probabilistic perspectives. The seismic responses of bridges with deep foundations are evaluated with a simplified mechanical model, which can consider the local scour effect around the deep foundation in addition to many other components. The probabilistic characteristics of local scour depths are estimated by using the Monte Carlo simulation. The probabilistic characteristics of basic random variables used in the Monte Carlo simulation are determined from the actual hydraulic data collected in middle size streams in Korea. The failure condition of deep foundation is assumed as bearing capacity failure of the ground below the foundation base. The probability of foundation failure of a simply supported bridge with various scour conditions and hi-directional seismic excitations are examined. It is found that the local scour and the recovery duration are critical factors in evaluating the probability of foundation failure. Moreover, the probability of foundation failure under hi-directional seismic excitations is much higher than under uni-directional seismic excitations. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider hi-directional seismic excitations in evaluating the seismic safety of bridge systems scoured by a flood.

• Water for future
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.47-54
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• 1981

The characteristics of point rainfall for three different durations in Seoul Pusan Taegu and Gwangju have been analysed by the probabilistic ainfall method and the M-year maximum rainfall method. The probabilities that the T-year probabilistic rainfall did not occur during the observation period, compared with the values obtained from the observed data. were smaller than the theoretical values. The averages of the probabilities that the M-year maximum-ten-minute rainfall did not occur in the consequent N-years were larger than the theoretical values, the M-year maximumone hour rainfall were smaller than the theoretical ones, and the M-year maximum daily rainfall nearly agreed with them, and while those of Japan were smaller than the theoretical values. It is recommended from the results that the recorded maximum value should be used as a design value rather than the probabilistic rainfall.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.2A no.3
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• pp.95-101
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• 2002

This paper illustrates a new fuzzy effective load model for probabilistic and fuzzy production cost simulation of the load point of the composite power system. A model for reliability evaluation of a transmission system using the fuzzy set theory is proposed for considering the flexibility or ambiguity of capacity limitation and overload of transmission lines, which are subjective matter characteristics. A conventional probabilistic approach was also used to model the uncertainties related to the objective matters for forced outage rates of generators and transmission lines in the new model. The methodology is formulated in order to consider the flexibility or ambiguity of load forecasting as well as capacity limitation and overload of transmission lines. It is expected that the Fuzzy CMELDC (CoMposite power system Effective Load Duration Curve) proposed in this study will provide some solutions to many problems based on nodal and decentralized operation and control of an electric power systems in a competitive environment in the future. The characteristics of this new model are illustrated by some case studies of a very simple test system.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.93-106
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• 2024

The present paper investigates the spatial variability effect of soil property on the three-dimensional probabilistic characteristics of the bearing capacity factor (i.e., mean and coefficient of variation) of a circular footing resting on clayey soil where both mean and standard deviation of undrained shear strength increases with depth, keeping the coefficient of variation constant. The mean trend of undrained shear strength is defined by introducing the dimensionless strength gradient parameter. The finite difference method along with the random field and Monte Carlo simulation technique, is used to execute the numerical analyses. The lognormal distribution is chosen to generate random fields of the undrained shear strength. In the study, the potential failure of the structure is represented through the failure probability. The influences of different vertical scales of fluctuation, dimensionless strength gradient parameters, and coefficient of variation of undrained shear strength on the probabilistic characteristics of the bearing capacity factor and failure probability of the footing, along with the probability and cumulative density functions, are explored in this study. The variations of failure probability for different factors of safety corresponding to different parameters are also illustrated. The results are presented in non-dimensional form as they might be helpful to the practicing engineers dealing with this type of problem.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• v.3 no.spc2
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• pp.355-362
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• 2005

Deregulations and market practices in power industry have brought great challenges to the system planning area. In particular, they introduce a variety of uncertainties to system planning. New techniques are required to cope with such uncertainties. As a promising approach, probabilistic methods are attracting more and more attentions by system planners. In small signal stability analysis, generation control parameters play an important role in determining the stability margin. The objective of this paper is to investigate power system state matrix sensitivity characteristics with respect to system parameter uncertainties with analytical and numerical approaches and to identify those parameters have great impact on system eigenvalues, therefore, the system stability properties. Those identified parameter variations need to be investigated with priority. The results can be used to help Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs) perform planning studies under the open access environment.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.24 no.8 s.179
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• pp.2115-2122
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• 2000

The understanding of impact-induced delamination is important in safety and reliability of composite structure. In this study, a model for arrest toughness is proposed in consideration of fracture behavior of composite materials. Also, the probabilistic model is proposed to describe the variability of arrest toughness due to the nonhomogeneity of material. For these models, experiments were conducted on the Carbon/Epoxy composite plates with various thickness using the impact hammer. The elastic work factor used in J-Integral is applicable to the evaluation of energy release rate. The fracture behavior can be described by crack arrest concept and the arrest toughness is independent of the delamination size. Additionally, a probabilistic characteristics of arrest toughness is well described by the Weibull distribution function. A variation of arrest toughness increases with specimen thickness.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.782-787
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• 2005

Magnitude of generated harmonic currents along with the operation of AC traction has nonlinear characteristics, and generated harmonic currents for high speed traction are more and more in high speed railroad(HSR) systems, especially. This paper presents probabilistic approximation method for the harmonic currents analysis about the operating speed of AC traction. To use probabilistic method for HSR system, probability density function(PDF) for collected operating speed based measure data is calculated. Mean and variance of harmonic currents of single traction are obtained based on the operating speed PDF and electrical traction model. The results of Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS) are in well accordance with the experimental and analytic methods. The harmonics of different number of trainloads are systematically investigated. It is assessed by the total demand distortion(TDD) for the HSR system.