• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.309-311
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• 2008

This paper introduces the characteristics of relationship between probabilistic reliability (LOLE; Loss of Load Expectation) and deterministic reliability (SRR; supply reserve rate) for 2008 year in Korea power system. Korea power system has been using the LOLE criterion to determine the adequacy of installed capacity (ICAP) requirement. The criterion is that load shall not exceed the avaliable capacity, on the average, more than five day in ten years. The probabilistic reliability evaluation and production cost simulation program which is called PPHFHT was used in order to obtain the relationship in this paper.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.7 no.5
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• pp.698-704
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• 2012

This paper proposes a new methodology for evaluating the probabilistic reliability based grid expansion planning of composite power system including the Wind Turbine Generators. The proposed model includes capacity limitations and uncertainties of the generators and transmission lines. It proposes to handle the uncertainties of system elements (generators, lines, transformers and wind resources of WTG, etc.) by a Composite power system Equivalent Load Duration Curve (CMELDC)-based model considering wind turbine generators (WTG). The model is derived from a nodal equivalent load duration curve based on an effective nodal load model including WTGs. Several scenarios are used to choose the optimal solution among various scenarios featuring new candidate lines. The characteristics and effectiveness of this simulation model are illustrated by case study using Jeju power system in South Korea.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.17 no.12
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• pp.3124-3134
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• 1993

Diagnosis is composed of two different but interrelated steps ; retrieving the sensory responses f the system and reasoning the state of the system through the given sensor data. This paper explains the probabilistic nature of reasoning involved in the diagnosis when the uncertainties are inevitably included in experts' diagnostic decision making. Uncertainties in decision making are experts' personal experiences, preferences, and system's coherent characteristics. In order to ensure a consistent decision based on the same responses from the system, expert system technology is adopted with the Bayesian reasoning scheme.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.477-492
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• 2018

Recently, the adaptive nonlinear static analysis method has been widely used in the field of performance based earthquake engineering. However, the proposed methods are almost deterministic and cannot directly consider the seismic record uncertainties. In the current study an innovative Stochastic Adaptive Pushover Analysis, called "SAPA", based on equivalent hysteresis system responses is developed to consider the earthquake record to record uncertainties. The methodology offers a direct stochastic analysis which estimates the seismic demands of the structure in a probabilistic manner. In this procedure by using a stochastic linearization technique in each step, the equivalent hysteresis system is analyzed and the probabilistic characteristics of the result are obtained by which the lateral force pattern is extracted and the actual structure is pushed. To compare the results, three different types of analysis have been considered; conventional pushover methods, incremental dynamic analysis, IDA, and the SAPA method. The result shows an admirable accuracy in predicting the structure responses.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.112-119
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• 2009

Based on the study of soil water dynamics, this study is to suggest an advanced stochastic soil water model for future study for drought application. One distinguishable remark of this study is the derivation of soil water dynamic controling equation for 3-stage loss functions in order to understand the temporal behaviour of soil water with reaction to the precipitation. In terms of modeling, a model with rather simpler structure can be applied to regenerate the key characteristics of soil water behavior, and especially the probabilistic solution of the derived soil water dynamic equation can be helpful to provide better and clearer understanding of soil water behavior. Moreover, this study will be the future cornerstone of applying to more realistic phenomenon such as drought management.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.6 no.11
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• pp.974-980
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• 2000

In this paper, we present a method that has flexibility of exact assignment of eigenstructure with the stochastic robustness for LTI(Linear-Time-Invariant) systems. The stochastic robustness of LTI systems is determined by the probability distributions of closed-loop eigenvalues. The probabilistic stability region is presented stochastically using the Monte Carlo evaluations. The proposed scheme is applied to designing a simple system and a flight control system with stochastic parameter variations to confirm the usefulness of the scheme.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.429-430
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• 2009

The flexural strength of reinforced concrete members is strongly governed by mechanical properties of reinforcing bars, especially by yield strength, which have many uncertainties. The correct choice of probabilistic models for yield strength of reinforcement is an essential step to assure the safety and reliability of members. In this paper, a probabilistic model of yield strength of reinforcing bars is proposed based on literature and own experimental data.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1989.07a
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• pp.207-210
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• 1989

In probabilistic production costing simulation, cumulant method is widely used. But this method have some limitations in some cases. To overcome these serious drawbacks, MONA(Mixture of Normals Approximation) method was proposed. The MONA method uses multiple normals to represent the Equivalent Load Duration Curve. In this paper we investigate the MONA's characteristics by comparing other methods and derive the efficient formulae for MONA. Also, we propose the fundamental algorithm for Mixture of Cumulants Approximation(MOCA) which is the general case of MONA.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.151-152
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to propose the new punching shear model for two-way concrete slabs of building structures and bridge decks structures reinforced with FRP or steel rebars. To do this, two evaluating methods are applied here. One is the ratio of test to model and the other is probability analysis with probabilistic uncertainties. In conclusion, it shows that the proposed punching shear model evaluates the tested punching shear strength as conservative with stability and it exhibits better probabilistic characteristics than existing punching shear models.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.19
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• pp.369-377
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• 1999

The determination of the design flood based on probabilistic concepts is one of the important matters of the general field of hydrology. Until now, Most of any existing formulas to predict the flood flow were estimated by very different values with each other when we applied these formulas to the small basin, in extreme case, which were estimated over top be 400% of a difference because these have been developed by foreigners or derived from the big basin. The objective of this thesis is to examine closely the characteristics of frequency flood flow for reliable prediction of the flood flow through the probabilistic method in hydrology and to develop the ($Q_T=27.74T^{0.178}A^{0.594}$) applicable to the river of Kangwon province.