• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive method

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A Study on the Concept of a Ship Predictive Maintenance Model Reflection Ship Operation Characteristics (선박 운항 특성을 반영한 선박 예지 정비 모델 개념 제안)

  • Youn, Ik-Hyun;Park, Jinkyu;Oh, Jungmo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 2021
  • The marine transport industry generally applies new technologies later than other transport industries, such as airways and railways. Vessels require efficient operation, and their performance and lifespan depend on the level of maintenance and management. Many studies have shown that corrective maintenance (CM) and time-based maintenance (TBM) have restrictions with respect to enabling efficient maintenance of workload and cost to improve operational efficiency. Predictive maintenance (PdM) is an advanced technology that allows monitoring the condition and performance of a target machine to predict its time of failure and helps maintain the key machinery in optimal working conditions at all times. This study presents the development of a marine predictive maintenance (MPdM; maritime predictive maintenance) method based on applying PdM to the marine environment. The MPdM scheme is designed by considering the special environment of the marine transport industry and the extreme marine conditions. Further, results of the study elaborates upon the concept of MPdM and its necessity to advancing marine transportation in the future.

The Adaptive Personalization Method According to Users Purchasing Index : Application to Beverage Purchasing Predictions (고객별 구매빈도에 동적으로 적응하는 개인화 시스템 : 음료수 구매 예측에의 적용)

  • Park, Yoon-Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2011
  • TThis is a study of the personalization method that intelligently adapts the level of clustering considering purchasing index of a customer. In the e-biz era, many companies gather customers' demographic and transactional information such as age, gender, purchasing date and product category. They use this information to predict customer's preferences or purchasing patterns so that they can provide more customized services to their customers. The previous Customer-Segmentation method provides customized services for each customer group. This method clusters a whole customer set into different groups based on their similarity and builds predictive models for the resulting groups. Thus, it can manage the number of predictive models and also provide more data for the customers who do not have enough data to build a good predictive model by using the data of other similar customers. However, this method often fails to provide highly personalized services to each customer, which is especially important to VIP customers. Furthermore, it clusters the customers who already have a considerable amount of data as well as the customers who only have small amount of data, which causes to increase computational cost unnecessarily without significant performance improvement. The other conventional method called 1-to-1 method provides more customized services than the Customer-Segmentation method for each individual customer since the predictive model are built using only the data for the individual customer. This method not only provides highly personalized services but also builds a relatively simple and less costly model that satisfies with each customer. However, the 1-to-1 method has a limitation that it does not produce a good predictive model when a customer has only a few numbers of data. In other words, if a customer has insufficient number of transactional data then the performance rate of this method deteriorate. In order to overcome the limitations of these two conventional methods, we suggested the new method called Intelligent Customer Segmentation method that provides adaptive personalized services according to the customer's purchasing index. The suggested method clusters customers according to their purchasing index, so that the prediction for the less purchasing customers are based on the data in more intensively clustered groups, and for the VIP customers, who already have a considerable amount of data, clustered to a much lesser extent or not clustered at all. The main idea of this method is that applying clustering technique when the number of transactional data of the target customer is less than the predefined criterion data size. In order to find this criterion number, we suggest the algorithm called sliding window correlation analysis in this study. The algorithm purposes to find the transactional data size that the performance of the 1-to-1 method is radically decreased due to the data sparity. After finding this criterion data size, we apply the conventional 1-to-1 method for the customers who have more data than the criterion and apply clustering technique who have less than this amount until they can use at least the predefined criterion amount of data for model building processes. We apply the two conventional methods and the newly suggested method to Neilsen's beverage purchasing data to predict the purchasing amounts of the customers and the purchasing categories. We use two data mining techniques (Support Vector Machine and Linear Regression) and two types of performance measures (MAE and RMSE) in order to predict two dependent variables as aforementioned. The results show that the suggested Intelligent Customer Segmentation method can outperform the conventional 1-to-1 method in many cases and produces the same level of performances compare with the Customer-Segmentation method spending much less computational cost.

Methodology for Determining Functional Forms in Developing Statistical Collision Models (교통사고모형 개발에서의 함수식 도출 방법론에 관한 연구)

  • Baek, Jong-Dae;Hummer, Joseph
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.189-199
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    • 2012
  • PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to propose a new methodology for developing statistical collision models and to show the validation results of the methodology. METHODS: A new modeling method of introducing variables into the model one by one in a multiplicative form is suggested. A method for choosing explanatory variables to be introduced into the model is explained. A method for determining functional forms for each explanatory variable is introduced as well as a parameter estimating procedure. A model selection method is also dealt with. Finally, the validation results is provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the final models developed using the method suggested in this study. RESULTS: According to the results of the validation for the total and injury collisions, the predictive powers of the models developed using the method suggested in this study were better than those of generalized linear models for the same data. CONCLUSIONS: Using the methodology suggested in this study, we could develop better statistical collision models having better predictive powers. This was because the methodology enabled us to find the relationships between dependant variable and each explanatory variable individually and to find the functional forms for the relationships which can be more likely non-linear.

Control Method of Modular Multilevel Converter to Reduce Switching Losses (스위칭 손실을 줄이기 위한 모듈형 멀티레벨 컨버터의 제어 방법)

  • Park, So-Young;Kim, Jae-Chang;Kwak, Sang-Shin
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.476-483
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, a voltage-based model predictive control (MPC) scheme for a modular multilevel converter is used to reduce switching loss. The proposed method calculates an offset voltage that clamps the switching operation of submodules in which the current greatly flows at every sampling period by using the reference phase voltage and the reference phase current. To use the offset voltage, the proposed method converts the current-based MPC to the voltage-based MPC. The proposed voltage-based MPC then generates a new reference pole voltage that clamps the switching of submodules by applying the calculated offset voltage to the phase voltage. Therefore, the proposed method can reduce the switching loss by stopping the switching operation of submodules in which the current greatly flows. The switching loss reduction effect of the proposed method is verified by comparing its loss data with those of the conventional MPC method.

Fast FCS-MPC-Based SVPWM Method to Reduce Switching States of Multilevel Cascaded H-Bridge STATCOMs

  • Wang, Xiuqin;Zhao, Jiwen;Wang, Qunjing;Li, Guoli;Zhang, Maosong
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.244-253
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    • 2019
  • Finite control set model-predictive control (FCS-MPC) has received increasing attentions due to its outstanding dynamic performance. It is being widely used in power converters and multilevel inverters. However, FCS-MPC requires a lot of calculations, especially for multilevel-cascaded H-bridge (CHB) static synchronous compensators (STATCOMs), since it has to take account of all the feasible voltage vectors of inverters. Hence, an improved five-segment space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM) method based on the non-orthogonal static reference frames is proposed. The proposed SVPWM method has a lower number of switching states and requires fewer computations than the conventional method. As a result, it makes FCS-MPC more efficient for multilevel cascaded H-bridge STATCOMs. The partial cost function is adopted to sequentially solve for the reference current and capacitor voltage. The proposed FCS-MPC method can reduce the calculation burden of the FCS-MPC strategy, and reduce both the switching frequency and power losses. Simulation and experimental results validate the excellent performance of the proposed method when compared with the conventional approach.

Degradation-Based Remaining Useful Life Analysis for Predictive Maintenance in a Steel Galvanizing Kettle (철강 도금로의 예지보전을 위한 열화 기반 잔존수명 분석)

  • Shin, Joon Ho;Kim, Chang Ouk
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.12
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2019
  • Smart factory, a critical part of digital transformation, enables data-driven decision making using monitoring, analysis and prediction. Predictive maintenance is a key element of smart factory and the need is increasing. The purpose of this study is to analyze the degradation characteristics of a galvanizing kettle for the steel plating process and to predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for predictive maintenance. Correlation analysis, multiple regression, principal component regression were used for analyzing factors of the process. To identify the trend of degradation, a proposed rolling window was used. It was observed the degradation trend was dependent on environmental temperature as well as production factors. It is expected that the proposed method in this study will be an example to identify the trend of degradation of the facility and enable more consistent predictive maintenance.

Predictive Factors of Brest Self-Examination Practice of Clinical Nurse (간호사의 유방자가검진(Breast Self-Examination) 실천 예측요인)

  • Tae, Young-Sook;Kim, Jong-Sun
    • Asian Oncology Nursing
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.122-132
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify predictive factors of Brest Self-Examination practice of clinical nurses. Method: The subject for this study were 277 nurses in 8 university hospitals in Busan. The data were collected from September 21 to October 20, 2001 by means of a structure questionnaire. The instruments used for this study were Choi's BSE knowledge scale. Kim's BSE attitude scale and Jung's BSE practice scale. The data were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean, Peason Correlation, t-teat, ANOVA, scheffe's test, and multiple stepwise Regression using SPSS program. Result: 1. The mean score of BSE practice for the total sample was 7. 25${\pm}$4.62. 2. Statistically significant factors influencing the BSE Practice among social demographic characteristics were age(F=2.734, P=0.44), Married status(t=2.598, p=0.010). 3. Statistically significant factors influencing the BSE Practice among BSE relating characteristics were enlisting the help of significant peers(t=3.34, P=0.00), Intention of Practice for BSE(t=10.462, p=0.00), performance of BSE(t=7.800, P=0.00), frequency of performance in BSE(F=13.932, p=0.00), confidence in Knowledge of BSE technique(F=5.350, p=0.00), confidence in finding breast nodule(F=7.204, p=.00), asking client's BSE (t=3.153, P=0.01). 4.The mild correlation between nurse's BSE knowledge and practice was found(r=0.366,p=0.000). 5. There were significant predictors of BSE Practice. Performance of BSE was the best significant predictive factor(R2=.383, p=.000) Another significant predictive factors were knowledge, intension of practice, married status, frequency of performance. Conclusion: Degree of nurses' performance of BSE was average. It is necessary to develope the nurses' educational program for BSE with its focus on above predictive factors of performance of BSE.

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Security Framework for Intelligent Predictive Surveillance Systems (지능형 예측감시 시스템을 위한 보안 프레임워크)

  • Park, Jeonghun;Park, Namje
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.77-83
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    • 2020
  • Recently, intelligent predictive surveillance system has emerged. It is a system that can probabilistically predict the future situation and event based on the existing data beyond the scope of the current object or object motion and situation recognition. Since such intelligent predictive monitoring system has a high possibility of handling personal information, security consideration is essential for protecting personal information. The existing video surveillance framework has limitations in terms of privacy. In this paper, we proposed a security framework for intelligent predictive surveillance system. In the proposed method, detailed components for each unit are specified by dividing them into terminals, transmission, monitoring, and monitoring layers. In particular, it supports active personal information protection in the video surveillance process by supporting detailed access control and de-identification.

Performance Improvement of Adaptive Hierarchical Hexagon Search by Extending the Search Patterns (탐색 패턴 확장에 의한 적응형 계층 육각 탐색의 성능 개선)

  • Kwak, No-Yoon
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.305-315
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    • 2008
  • Pre-proposed AHHS(Adaptive Hierarchical Hexagon Search) is a kind of the fast hierarchical block matching algorithm based on the AHS(Adaptive Hexagon Search). It is characterized as keeping the merits of the AHS capable of fast estimating motion vectors and also adaptively reducing the local minima often occurred in the video sequences with higher spatio-temporal motion activity. The objective of this paper is to propose the method effectively extending the horizontal biased pattern and the vertical biased pattern of the AHHS to improve its predictive image quality. In the paper, based on computer simulation results for multiple video sequences with different motion characteristics, the performance of the proposed method was analysed and assessed in terms of the predictive image quality and the computational time. The simulation results indicated that the proposed method was both suitable for (quasi-) stationary and large motion searches. While the proposed method increased the computational load on the process extending the hexagon search patterns, it could improve the predictive image quality so as to cancel out the increase of the computational load.

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Realization and Design of Predictor Algorithm and Evaluation of Numerical Method on Nonlinear Load Control Model (비선형 하중제어 모델의 예측기 설계 및 알고리즘 구현을 위한 수치연산 오차 분석과 평가)

  • Wang, Hyun-Min;Woo, Kwang-Joon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2009
  • For the shake of control for movement object, control theory like neural network, nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC) is realized on digital high speed computer. Predictor of flight control system(FCS) based nonlinear model predictive control has to be satisfied with response for hard real-time to perform applications on each module in the FCS. Simultaneously, It gives a serious consideration accuracy to give full play to FCS's performance. Error of mathematical aspect affects realization of whole algorithm. But factors of bring mathematical error is not considered to calculate final accuracy on parameter of predictor. In this paper, Predictor was made using load control model on the digital computer for design FCS at hard real-time and is shown response time on realization algorithm. And is shown realization algorithm of high effective predictor over the accuracy. The predictor was realized on the load control model using Euler method, Heun method, Runge-Kutta and Taylor method.