• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive accuracy

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Diagnostic Value of CYFRA 21-1 Measurement in Fine-Needle Aspiration Washouts for Detection of Axillary Recurrence in Postoperative Breast Cancer Patients (유방암 수술 후 액와림프절 재발 진단에 있어서의 미세침세척액 CYFRA 21-1의 진단적 가치)

  • So Yeon Won;Eun-Kyung Kim;Hee Jung Moon;Jung Hyun Yoon;Vivian Youngjean Park;Min Jung Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.81 no.1
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    • pp.147-156
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    • 2020
  • Purpose The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value and threshold levels of cytokeratin fragment 21-1 (CYFRA 21-1) in fine-needle aspiration (FNA) washouts for detection of lymph node (LN) recurrence in postoperative breast cancer patients. Materials and Methods FNA cytological assessments and CYFRA 21-1 measurement in FNA washouts were performed for 64 axillary LNs suspicious for recurrence in 64 post-operative breast cancer patients. Final diagnosis was made on the basis of FNA cytology and follow-up data over at least 2 years. The concentration of CYFRA 21-1 was compared between recurrent LNs and benign LNs. Diagnostic performance and cut-off value were evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Results Regardless of the non-diagnostic results, the median concentration of CYFRA 21-1 in recurrent LNs was significantly higher than that in benign LNs (p < 0.001). The optimal diagnostic cut-off value was 1.6 ng/mL. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of CYFRA 21-1 for LN recurrence were 90.9%, 100%, 100%, 98.1%, and 98.4%, respectively. Conclusion Measurement of CYFRA 21-1 concentration from ultrasound-guided FNA biopsy aspirates showed excellent diagnostic performance with a cut-off value of 1.6 ng/mL. These results indicate that measurement of CYFRA 21-1 concentration in FNA washouts is useful for the diagnosis of axillary LN recurrence in post-operative breast cancer patients.

Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

Analysis of Mutual Understanding about Dangerous Driving Behaviors between Male and Female Drivers by Co-orientation Model (위험운전행동에 대한 운전자 성별 간 상호이해도 분석)

  • Choi, Jungwoo;Kum, Kijung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.32-45
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to compare the mutual perception gap on dangerous driving behavior between male and female drivers in multiple aspects, analyze them, and identify factors that trigger this different perception. To understand the mutual perception gap on dangerous driving behavior, DBQ(Driving Behavior Questionnaire) was applied as a rating scale. By applying results into the Co-oreintation model, this study compared the mutual perception gap between male drivers and female drivers and analyze results. In addition, factors that generate the perception gap between both genders were drawn by analyzing factors. This study suggested that objective consistency identified the perception gap that driving behaviors of others were more dangerous between two genders. In addition, subjective consistency was different as both genders assumed that the counterpart's driving behavior takes more risks than their own actual driving behaviors. In regard to the accuracy, men were aware that female driving behaviors are more dangerous than their behaviors. However, female driving behavior assumed by women was consistent with male perception in all factors, which indicated that women perceive men precisely. In addition, results were compared and analyzed in both perspectives of male drivers and female drivers by combining predictive models. Based on these results, both genders perceived that counterpart's driving behavior is more dangerous among both genders.

Analysis of dentoalveolar compensation and discrimination of skeletal types (골격형에 따른 치아치조성 보상기전의 분석 및 골격형 판별)

  • Kim, Ji-Young;Kim, Tae-Woo;Nahm, Dong-Seok;Chang, Young-Il
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.33 no.6 s.101
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    • pp.407-418
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze dentoalveolar compensation in normal occlusion samples previously classified into 9 skeletal types, and to provide clinically applicable diagnostic criteria for individual malocclusion patients. Cephalometric measurements of the 294 normal occlusion samples previously divided into 9 types were analyzed. The descriptive features of dentoalveolar variables were compared for the 9 types using analysis of variance, followed by post hoc multiple comparisons. In addition, the correlation between skeletal and dentoalveolar variables were analyzed. Discriminant analysis with a stepwise entry of variables was designed to find out several potential variables for use in skeletal typing. The dentoalveolar compensation pattern of the skeletal types varied, especially with regards to the variables that indicated the inclination of incisors and the occlusal plane. Stepwise variable selection identified four variables: AB-MP, SN-AB, PMA and ANB. Discriminant analysis assigned a classification accuracy of $87.8\%$ to the predictive model. On the basis of these results, this study could provide rudimentary information for the development of diagnostic criteria and treatment guidelines for individual skeletal types.

Measurement and Algorithm Calculation of Maxillary Positioning Change by Use of an Optoelectronic Tracking System Marker in Orthognathic Surgery (악교정수술에서 광전자 포인트 마커를 이용한 상악골 위치 변화의 계측 및 계산 방법 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Woong;Kim, Soung-Min;Eo, Mi-Young;Park, Jung-Min;Myoung, Hoon;Lee, Jong-Ho;Kim, Myung-Jin
    • Maxillofacial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.233-240
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: To apply a computer assisted navigation system to orthognathic surgery, a simple and efficient measuring algorithm calculation based on affine transformation was designed. A method of improving accuracy and reducing errors in orthognathic surgery by use of an optical tracking camera was studied. Methods: A total of 5 points on one surgical splint were measured and tracked by the Polaris $Vicra^{(R)}$ (Northern Digital Inc Co., Ontario, Canada) optical tracking system in two cases. The first case was to apply the transformation matrix at pre- and postoperative situations, and the second case was to apply an affine transformation only after the postoperative situation. In each situation, the predictive measuring value was changed to the final measuring value via an affine transformation algorithm and the expected coordinates calculated from the model were compared with those of the patient in the operation room. Results: The mean measuring error was $1.027{\pm}0.587$ using the affine transformation at pre- and postoperative situations and the average value after the postoperative situation was $0.928{\pm}0.549$. The farther a coordinate region was from the reference coordinates which constitutes the transform matrixes, the bigger the measuring error was found which was calculated from an affine transformation algorithm. Conclusion: Most difference errors were brought from mainly measuring process and lack of reproducibility, the affine transformation algorithm formula from postoperative measuring values by using of optic tracking system between those of model surgery and those of patient surgery can be selected as minimizing the difference error. To reduce coordinate calculation errors, minimum transformation matrices must be used and reference points which determine an affine transformation must be close to the area where coordinates are measured and calculated, as well as the reference points need to be scattered.

Prediction of Infarction in Acute Cerebral Ischemic Stroke by Using Perfusion MR Imaging and $^{99m}Tc-HMPAO$ SPECT (급성 허혈성 뇌졸중에서 관류 자기공명영상과 99mTC-HMPAO 단광자방출단층촬영술을 이용한 뇌경색의 예측)

  • Ho Cheol Choe;Sun Joo Lee;Jae Hyoung Kim
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : We investigated the predictive values of relative CBV measured with perfusion MR imaging, and relative CBF measured with SPECT for tissue outcome in acute ischemic stroke. Material and Methods : Thirteen patients, who had acute unilateral middle cerebral artery occlusion, underwent perfusion MR imaging, and $^{99m}Tc-HMPAO$ SPECT within 6 hours after the onset of symptoms. Lesion-to-contralateral ratios of perfusion parameters were measured, and best cut-off values of both parameter ratios with their accuracy to discriminate between regions with and without evolving infarction were calculated. Results : Mean relative CBV ratios in regions with evolving infarction and without evolving infarction were $0.58{\pm}0.27$ and $0.9{\pm}0.17$ (p < 0.001), and mean relative CBF ratios in those regions were $0.41{\pm}0.22$ and $0.71{\pm}0.14$ (p < 0.001). The best cutoff values to discriminate between regions with and without evolving infarction were estimated to be 0.80 for relative CBV ratio and 0.56 for relative CBF ratio. The sensitivity, specificity and efficiency of each cutoff value were 80.6, 87.5, 82.7% for relative CBV ratio, and 72.2, 75.0, 73.0% for relative CBF ratio (p > 0.05 between two parameters). Conclusion Measurement of relative CBV and relative CBE may be useful in predicting tissue outcome in acute ischemic stroke.

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Use of $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT in Second Primary Cancer (이차성 원발암에서의 $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT의 이용)

  • Choi, Joon-Young;Kim, Byung-Tae
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.185-193
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    • 2007
  • This review focuses on the use of $^{18}F-FDG$ PET/CT to evaluate second primary cancers. The emergence of a second primary cancer is an important prognostic factor in cancer patients. The early detection of a second primary cancer and the appropriate treatment are essential for reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with these tumors. Integrated $^{18}F-FDG$ PET/CT, which can provide both the metabolic and anatomic information of a cancer, has been shown to have a better accuracy in oncology than either CT or conventional PET. The whole body coverage and high sensitivity of $^{18}F-FDG$ PET/CT along with its ability to provide both metabolic and anatomic information of a cancer make it suitable for evaluating a second primary cancer in oncology. Whole body $^{18}F-FDG$ PET/CT is useful for screening second primary cancers with a high sensitivity and good positive predictive value. In order to rule out the presence of a second primary cancer or an unexpected metastasis, further diagnostic work-up is essential when abnormal findings indicative of a second primary cancer are found on the PET/CT images. PET/CT is better in detecting a second primary tumor than conventional PET.

Thallium-201 Scan in Bone and Softtissue Sarcoma - Comparison with Tc-99m-MIBI and Tc-99m-MDP Scan - (악성 골 및 연부조직 종양에서 Tl-201 SCAN의 진단적 효능 - Tc-99m-MIBI 및 Tc-99m-MDP scan과의 비교 -)

  • Shin, Duk-Seop;Cho, Ihn-Ho;Ahn, Jong-Chul;Ahn, Myun-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korean bone and joint tumor society
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 1996
  • PURPOSE : The purpose of this study is to know the ability of detecting malignant tumor tissue by Tl-201 scan, and to compare with that of Tc-99m-MIBI and Tc-99m-MDP scan. MATERIAL AND METHODS : Between February 1994 and December 1995,38 unselected patients with various bone pathologies were studied prospectively. Eighteen had malignant bone and soft tissue pathologies, while twenty had benign. All patients were studied with Tl-201, Tc-99mMIBI and Tc-99m-MDP scan prior to surgical biopsy. PICKER Prism 2000 gamma camera with high resolution parallel hole collimator was used for scanning. To avoid the interaction of isotope, the early(30min.) and delayed phase(3hrs.) of Tl-20l scan was performed first and Tc-99m-MIBI scan was performed after 30 minutes, and then Tc-99m-MDP scan 48 hours later. The scan images were visually evaluated by a blinded nuclear medicine physician. We could find true positive, true negative, false positive and false negative by the comparison of results with those of biopsy. We calculated positive and negative predictive value(%), sensitivity(%), specificity(%) and diagnostic accuracy(%) of each scan. RESULT : The results of each scan were 85.7, 100, 100, 85, 92.1% in Tl-201, 81, 94.1, 94.4, 80, 86.8% in Tc-99m-MIBI and 50, 66.7, 88.9, 20, 52.6% in Tc-99m-MDP scan. As a conclusion, Tl-201 scan was the most specific and accurate method for detecting malignant tumor tissue. Tc-99m-MIBI scan was also good for malignant tumor searching. CONCLUSION : With our results, we can use Tl-201 scan to differentiate benign from malignant tumor, and to evaluate the response of preoperative chemotherapy or radiotherapy, and to determine the residual tumor or local recurrence. For the better result, we need to have a more detail information about false positive cases and a more objective and quantitative reading technique.

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전산화 폐관류주사를 이용한 폐절제술후 폐기능의 예측

  • Oh, Duck-Jin;Lee, Young;Lim, Seung-Pyeung;Yu, Jae-Hyun;Na, Myung-Hoon
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.29 no.8
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    • pp.897-904
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    • 1996
  • A preoperative prediction of postoperative pulmonary function after the pulmonary resection should be made to prevent serious complications and postoperative mortality. There are several methods to predict postoperative lung function but the 99m7c-MAA perfusion lung scan is known as simple, inexpensive and easily tolerated method for patients. We studied the accuracy of the perfusion lung scan in predicting postoperative lung function on 34 patients who received either the resection of one lobe(17 patients) or 2 lobes(2 patients) or pneumonictomy(15 patients). We performed pulmonary function test and lung scan immediately before the operation and calculated the postoperative lung function by substracting the regional lung function which will be rejected. We compared this predictive value to the observed pulmonary function which was done 20 days after the surgery. We also compared the data achieved from 12 patients ho received open thoracotomy due to intrathoracic disease that are not confined in the lung. The correlation coefficient between the predicted value and observed value of FEVI .0 was 0.423, FVC was 0.557 in the pneumonectomy group and FEVI . 0 was 0.693, FVC was 0.591 in the lobectomy group. The correlation coefnclent between the'postoperative value and preoperative value of FEVI .0 was 0.528, FVC was 0.502 in the resectional group and FEVI .0 was 0.871, FVC was 0.896 in the comparatives. We concluded that the perfusion lung scan is accllrate in predicting post-resectional pulmonary function.

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Predictive Modeling for the Growth of Listeria monocytogenes as a Function of Temperature, NaCl, and pH

  • PARK SHIN YOUNG;CHOI JIN-WON;YEON JIHYE;LEE MIN JEONG;CHUNG DUCK HWA;KIM MIN-GON;LEE KYU-HO;KIM KEUN-SUNG;LEE DONG-HA;BAHK GYUNG-JIN;BAE DONG-HO;KIM KWANG-YUP;KIM CHEOL-HO
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.1323-1329
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    • 2005
  • A mathematical model was developed for predicting the growth kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes in tryptic soy broth (TSB) as a function of combined effects of temperature, pH, and NaCl. The TSB containing four different concentrations of NaCl (2, 4, 5, and $10\%$) was initially adjusted to six different pH levels (pH 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10) and incubated at 4, 10, 25, or 37$^{circ}C$. In all experimental variables, the primary growth curves were well fitted ($r^{2}$=0.982 to 0.998) to a Gompertz equation to obtain the lag time (LT) and specific growth rate (SGR). Surface response models were identified as appropriate secondary models for LT and SGR on the basis of coefficient determination ($r^{2}$=0.907 for LT, 0.964 for SGR), mean square error (MSE=3.389 for LT, 0.018 for SGR), bias factor ($B_{1}$B,=0.706 for LT, 0.836 for SGR), and accuracy factor ($A_{f}$=1.567 for LT, 1.213 for SGR). Therefore, the developed secondary model proved reliable predictions of the combined effect of temperature, NaCl, and pH on both LT and SGR for L. monocytogenes in TSB.