• 제목/요약/키워드: predictive accuracy

검색결과 821건 처리시간 0.025초

Investigation of Key Factors to measure on-site Performance of a Construction firm

  • Lee, Young-Dai;Kim, Jung-Ki;Acharya, Nirmal Kumar
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제8권6호
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    • pp.246-262
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    • 2007
  • The performance of projects has always been an area of interest in the construction industry. Roles of all construction supply chain partners are necessary; however the role of a contractor firm in the construction project is pivotal. So, this research intended to explore a Construction Firm's performance criteria which could measure the level of performance of that firm in an ongoing project. Data was collected from construction professionals working in three principal project participant organizations, namely Owner, Consultant and Contractor. A total of 113 nos. of performance measuring items were sorted from literature review and used to collect data. Statistical tools processed by SPSS program was employed to analyze the data. Out of total 113 items, only 65 nos. of variables were found to be acceptable to every population group of this study. Factor analysis revealed 12 key performance predicting factors (KPPF) with 53 predictive indicators. 12 KPPFS with index weight are: work progress and smoothening (9.3%), change order management and work accuracy (9.1%), business relationship building (8.1%), adequacy of construction work procedure (8.6%), quality performance (8.0%), health and site safety adequacy (8.8%), Innovative contractor (8.0%), adequacy of construction site information (6.8%), compliance with contract plan/specification requirements (8.9%), creditworthiness and financial capability (8.3%), intra-agency relationship and responsiveness (7.0%) and resource management (9.2%). These results could be useful to project management body to evaluate performance of its contractor firm on site as well as the contractor itself to assess own performance and its subcontractors on-site.

데이터마이닝을 활용한 해군함정 수리부속 수요예측 (Naval Vessel Spare Parts Demand Forecasting Using Data Mining)

  • 윤현민;김수환
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제40권4호
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    • pp.253-259
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    • 2017
  • Recent development in science and technology has modernized the weapon system of ROKN (Republic Of Korea Navy). Although the cost of purchasing, operating and maintaining the cutting-edge weapon systems has been increased significantly, the national defense expenditure is under a tight budget constraint. In order to maintain the availability of ships with low cost, we need accurate demand forecasts for spare parts. We attempted to find consumption pattern using data mining techniques. First we gathered a large amount of component consumption data through the DELIIS (Defense Logistics Intergrated Information System). Through data collection, we obtained 42 variables such as annual consumption quantity, ASL selection quantity, order-relase ratio. The objective variable is the quantity of spare parts purchased in f-year and MSE (Mean squared error) is used as the predictive power measure. To construct an optimal demand forecasting model, regression tree model, randomforest model, neural network model, and linear regression model were used as data mining techniques. The open software R was used for model construction. The results show that randomforest model is the best value of MSE. The important variables utilized in all models are consumption quantity, ASL selection quantity and order-release rate. The data related to the demand forecast of spare parts in the DELIIS was collected and the demand for the spare parts was estimated by using the data mining technique. Our approach shows improved performance in demand forecasting with higher accuracy then previous work. Also data mining can be used to identify variables that are related to demand forecasting.

Modeling the potential climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus (Acari: Ixodidae) tick distribution in semi-arid areas of Raya Azebo district, Northern Ethiopia

  • Hadgu, Meseret;Menghistu, Habtamu Taddele;Girma, Atkilt;Abrha, Haftu;Hagos, Haftom
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • 제43권4호
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    • pp.427-437
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    • 2019
  • Background: Climate change is believed to be continuously affecting ticks by influencing their habitat suitability. However, we attempted to model the climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus distribution considering the major environmental factors that would influence the tick. Therefore, 50 tick occuance points were taken to model the potential distribution using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) software and 19 climatic variables, taking into account the ability for future climatic change under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were used. Results: MaxEnt model performance was tested and found with the AUC value of 0.99 which indicates excellent goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. Current models predict increased temperatures, both in the mid and end terms together with possible changes of other climatic factors like precipitation which may lead to higher tick-borne disease risks associated with expansion of the range of the targeted tick distribution. Distribution maps were constructed for the current, 2050, and 2070 for the two greenhouse gas scenarios and the most dramatic scenario; RCP 8.5 produced the highest increase probable distribution range. Conclusions: The future potential distribution of the genus Rhipicephalus show potential expansion to the new areas due to the future climatic suitability increase. These results indicate that the genus population of the targeted tick could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking; increased incidence of tick-borne diseases poses further risk which can affect cattle production and productivity, thereby affecting the livelihood of smallholding farmers. Therefore, it is recommended to implement climate change adaptation practices to minimize the impacts.

워터스, 파노라마 방사선사진과 Scanora$\textregistered$ 방사선사진의 상악동 점막비후 진단 결과의 비교 (A COMPARISON OF SCANORA$\textregistered$ RADIOGRAPHY WITH WATERS' AND PANORAMIC VIEWS FOR THE DETECTION OF MUCOSAL THICKENING OF MAXILLARY SINUS)

  • 윤숙자;정현대;강병철
    • 치과방사선
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 1995
  • The purpose of this study was to compare the diagnostic performance of Waters' and panoramic view; maxillary sinus posteroanterior and lateral scanography of Scanora/sup (R)/ for mucosal thickening of maxillary sinus as well as to identify the utility of Scanora/sup (R)/ for the detection of maxillary sinus disease. The assessment was done at 66 maxillary sinuses in 45 patients and the results were as follows ; 1. Estimation of presence or absence of mucosal thickening. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value of maxillary sinus posteroanterior and lateral scanography were 0.865, 0.860, 0.921, and 0.805 respectively and slightly higher than those of Waters' and panoramic views, which were 0.832, 0.835, 0.903, and 0.728 respectively. However, paired t-test showed no significant differences in the diagnostic performance of the two pairs of imaging modalities. 2. Estimation of the types of mucosal thickening. The diagnostic accuracy for type I, II, III was 75.3% on Waters' and panoramic view; 77.9% on maxillary sinus posteroanterior and lateral scanography. It was higher on the latter ,but showed no significant differences from that on the former. 3. Reliability of interpretation. In itraobserver and interobserver agreement, both overall rates of agreement and kappa-value were slightly higher on maxillary sinus posteroanterior and lateral scanography than on Waters' and panoramic views. There was no significant differences between the two pairs of imaging modalities. These results suggested that scanogram is a useful diagnostic radiography as well as Waters' and panoramic views for detection of maxillary sinusitis.

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GIS를 이용한 지표화 확산예측모델의 개발 (Development of the Surface Forest Fire Behavior Prediction Model Using GIS)

  • 이병두;정주상;이명보
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제94권6호
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    • pp.481-487
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    • 2005
  • 이 연구에서는 지표화 중심의 산불확산예측 알고리즘을 기반으로 GIS 환경에서 운용이 가능한 지표화 확산예측모델을 개발하였다. 이 모델은 지형, 연료, 기상 등 산불환경인자를 분석하고 입력하는 부분과 시간에 따라 확산속도, 화선에서의 산불강도, 연소면적을 예측하는 지표화 확산예측 부분, 마지막으로 예측결과를 사용자에게 제시하는 출력 부분으로 구성되었다. 산불확산속도를 계산하기 위해서 산불행동에 영향을 미치는 산불환경인자중에서 지형인자는 경사, 기상인자는 풍속, 풍향, 실효습도를 고려하였다. 또한 연료인자는 수치임상도를 이용하여 연료깊이, 연료량, 소화습도를 계산할 수 있는 연료모듈을 개발하여 입력되도록 하였다. 연료습도는 실효습도, 최고온도, 강수량, 일일 적산량의 함수관계로 추정하였다. 모델을 2002년 청양에서 발생한 산불에 적용한 결과 확산속도에 대해 61%의 일치도를 보였다.

차량가속도데이터를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 궤도품질지수(TQI) 예측 (Prediction of Track Quality Index (TQI) Using Vehicle Acceleration Data based on Machine Learning)

  • 최찬용;김현기;김영철;김상수
    • 한국지반신소재학회논문집
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2020
  • 철도분야에서도 계측자료를 바탕으로 머신러닝 기법을 이용하여 예측 분석하는 시도가 점차적으로 증가하고 있는 실정이다. 이 논문에서는 열차의 차상가속도 데이터를 기반으로 궤도의 품질을 결정하는 지표 중에 하나인 궤도품질지수를 머신러닝 기법을 활용하여 예측하였다. 머신러닝 기법으로 활용하고 있는 대표적인 3개의 모델로 궤도품질지수를 예측하여 가장 정확도가 높은 모델은 XGBoost으로 데이터셋에서 85% 이상의 예측정확도를 보였다. 또한 윤축과 대차의 z축의 진동가속도가 고저 궤도품질지수의 기여도가 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 기존 연구결과와도 잘 일치하였다. 이러한 결과를 볼 때 단일 알고리즘인 서포터 벡터머신보다는 앙상블 알고리즘을 적용한 랜덤포레스트와 XGBoost이 정확도가 높은 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 머신러닝 기법에서 적용모델에 따라 정확도가 달라질 수 있기 때문에 차량진동가속도를 이용한 궤도품질지수를 예측하기 위해서는 앙상블 알고리즘을 가지는 모델을 적용하는 것이 적절할 것으로 판단된다.

입자 군집 최적화를 이용한 FCM 기반 퍼지 모델의 동정 방법론 (Identification Methodology of FCM-based Fuzzy Model Using Particle Swarm Optimization)

  • 오성권;김욱동;박호성;손명희
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제60권1호
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    • pp.184-192
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    • 2011
  • In this study, we introduce a identification methodology for FCM-based fuzzy model. The two underlying design mechanisms of such networks involve Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering method and Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO). The proposed algorithm is based on FCM clustering method for efficient processing of data and the optimization of model was carried out using PSO. The premise part of fuzzy rules does not construct as any fixed membership functions such as triangular, gaussian, ellipsoidal because we build up the premise part of fuzzy rules using FCM. As a result, the proposed model can lead to the compact architecture of network. In this study, as the consequence part of fuzzy rules, we are able to use four types of polynomials such as simplified, linear, quadratic, modified quadratic. In addition, a Weighted Least Square Estimation to estimate the coefficients of polynomials, which are the consequent parts of fuzzy model, can decouple each fuzzy rule from the other fuzzy rules. Therefore, a local learning capability and an interpretability of the proposed fuzzy model are improved. Also, the parameters of the proposed fuzzy model such as a fuzzification coefficient of FCM clustering, the number of clusters of FCM clustering, and the polynomial type of the consequent part of fuzzy rules are adjusted using PSO. The proposed model is illustrated with the use of Automobile Miles per Gallon(MPG) and Boston housing called Machine Learning dataset. A comparative analysis reveals that the proposed FCM-based fuzzy model exhibits higher accuracy and superb predictive capability in comparison to some previous models available in the literature.

초기 기획단계의 신한옥 공사비 예측 모델 - 모듈(칸) 기반의 목공사 개략 물량 산출 중심으로 - (Preliminary Construction Cost Prediction Model Based on Module for Modernized Hanok)

  • 강승희;정영수
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.48-56
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    • 2020
  • 기획단계에서의 공사비 예측은 타당성 분석, 예산 책정, 계획수립 등을 위한 기초정보를 제공한다는 점에서 성공적인 프로젝트 수행을 위한 중요한 요소이다. 본 연구에서는 초기 기획단계의 신한옥 공사비 예측 정확도 향상을 목적으로 전체 공사비 중 가장 많은 비중을 차지하는 목공사는 다양한 조건(구조형식, 지붕형태, 평면형태 등)에 의해 개략 물량을 자동 산출하여 공사비를 예측하고, 이외의 공종은 단위단가식을 적용해 공사비를 예측하는 모델을 제시하였다. 2개의 사례를 대상으로 개략 견적 모델로써의 활용성 및 타당성을 검증하였으며, 총공사비의 오차율은 각각 -4%(사례 1), -6%(사례2)로 나타났다. 이러한 결과값은 초기 기획단계에서 실무활용 가능한 범위에서의 오차를 보였다.

Application of support vector machine with firefly algorithm for investigation of the factors affecting the shear strength of angle shear connectors

  • Chahnasir, E. Sadeghipour;Zandi, Y.;Shariati, M.;Dehghani, E.;Toghroli, A.;Mohamad, E. Tonnizam;Shariati, A.;Safa, M.;Wakil, K.;Khorami, M.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.413-424
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    • 2018
  • The factors affecting the shear strength of the angle shear connectors in the steel-concrete composite beams can play an important role to estimate the efficacy of a composite beam. Therefore, the current study has aimed to verify the output of shear capacity of angle shear connector according to the input provided by Support Vector Machine (SVM) coupled with Firefly Algorithm (FFA). SVM parameters have been optimized through the use of FFA, while genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural networks (ANN) have been applied to estimate and predict the SVM-FFA models' results. Following these results, GP and ANN have been applied to develop the prediction accuracy and generalization capability of SVM-FFA. Therefore, SVM-FFA could be performed as a novel model with predictive strategy in the shear capacity estimation of angle shear connectors. According to the results, the Firefly algorithm has produced a generalized performance and be learnt faster than the conventional learning algorithms.

RDS(Robotic Drilling System) 구축을 위한 전용 End-Effector Prototype 개발에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Development of a Specialized Prototype End-Effector for RDSs(Robotic Drilling Systems))

  • 김태화;권순재
    • 한국기계가공학회지
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.132-141
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    • 2013
  • Robotic Drilling Systems(RDSs) set the standard for the factory automation systems in aerospace manufacturing. With the benefits of cost effective drilling and predictive maintenance, RDSs can provide greater flexibility in the manufacturing process. The system can be easily adopted to manage very complex and time-consuming processes, such as automated fastening hole drilling processes of large aircraft sections, where it would be difficult accomplished by workers following teaching or conventional guided methods. However, in order to build an RDS based on a CAD model, the precise calibration of the Tool Center Point(TCP) must be performed in order to define the relationships between the fastening-hole target and the End Effector(EEF). Based on the kinematics principle, the robot manipulator requires a new method to correct the 3D errors between the CAD model of the reference coordinate system and the actual measurements. The system can be called as a successful system if following conditions can be met; a. seamless integration of the industrial robot controller and the IO Level communication, b. performing pre-defined drilling procedures automatically. This study focuses on implementing a new technology called iGPS into the fastening-hole-drilling process, which is a critical process in aircraft manufacturing. The proposed system exhibits better than 100-micron 3D accuracy under the predefined working space. Based on the proposed EEF fastening-hole machining process, the corresponding processes and programs are developed, and its feasibility is studied.