• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction path

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A Study on the Applicability of Modified Cam-clay Model in Low Plastic Clays (저소성 점토의 수정 Cam-clay 모델 적용성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Song;Kim, Tae-Hwoon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.247-256
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    • 2003
  • FEM analyses which are based on modified Cam-clay theory have been generally used in such cases as analyses of stability and displacement fur embankment construction on soft clays. However, the Modified Cam Clay Model can generate some problems in anisotropic stress conditions of field because the critical state theory has been developed through many laboratory tests in isotropic conditions. Thus, the applicability on the prediction of undrained shear strength and pore water pressure which was based on the critical state theory was evaluated by triaxial tests and numerical analyses in isotropic and anisotropic conditions. Used samples often come out in domestic area, together with general low plastic clays which are showing dilatant behavior in shearing process. They were evaluated by laboratory tests and FEM based on MCCM. From the results of test and numerical analysis, the predictions of undrained strength in low plastic clays well coincided with each other in both isotropic and anisotropic conditions. However, the generation of porewater pressure was often overestimated during undrained shearing in anisotropic conditions. The results can generate the errors in the prediction of stress path of field sites during loading such as construction of embankment on soft clays because the field is subjected to anisotropic conditions during loading.

Analysis and Prediction Methods of Marine Accident Patterns related to Vessel Traffic using Long Short-Term Memory Networks (장단기 기억 신경망을 활용한 선박교통 해양사고 패턴 분석 및 예측)

  • Jang, Da-Un;Kim, Joo-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.780-790
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    • 2022
  • Quantitative risk levels must be presented by analyzing the causes and consequences of accidents and predicting the occurrence patterns of the accidents. For the analysis of marine accidents related to vessel traffic, research on the traffic such as collision risk analysis and navigational path finding has been mainly conducted. The analysis of the occurrence pattern of marine accidents has been presented according to the traditional statistical analysis. This study intends to present a marine accident prediction model using the statistics on marine accidents related to vessel traffic. Statistical data from 1998 to 2021, which can be accumulated by month and hourly data among the Korean domestic marine accidents, were converted into structured time series data. The predictive model was built using a long short-term memory network, which is a representative artificial intelligence model. As a result of verifying the performance of the proposed model through the validation data, the RMSEs were noted to be 52.5471 and 126.5893 in the initial neural network model, and as a result of the updated model with observed datasets, the RMSEs were improved to 31.3680 and 36.3967, respectively. Based on the proposed model, the occurrence pattern of marine accidents could be predicted by learning the features of various marine accidents. In further research, a quantitative presentation of the risk of marine accidents and the development of region-based hazard maps are required.

Analysis of the Vent Path Through the Pressurizer Manway Under the Loss of Residual Heat Removal(RHR) System During Mid-Loop Operation in PWR (가압경수로 부분충수 운전중 잔열제거 (RHR)계통 상실시 가압기 통로를 통한 배출유로 특성 분석)

  • Ha, G.S.;Kim, W.S.;Chang, W.P.;Yoo, K.J.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.859-869
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    • 1995
  • The present study is to understand the physical phenomena anticipated during the accident with RHR loss under mid-loop operation in a PWR and, at the same time, to examine the prediction capability of RELAP5/MOD3.1 on such an accident, by simulating an integral test relevant to this accident for reliable analysis in an actual PWR. The selected experiment, i.g. BETHSY Test 6.9a, represents the configuration with the pressurizer manway open and steam generators unavailable during the accident. Accordingly, the results of this ok are sure to contribute to understanding both the key events as well as the sensitive parameters, anticipated in the accident, for validity of the actual analysis. In the simulation result overall behavior as well as major phenomena observed in the experiment have been predicted reasonably by RELAP5/MOD3.1, however, the problem associated with enormous computing time .due to small time step size has been encountered. Besides, the code prediction of higher swollen level in the pressure vessel has given rise to overestimation of both pressurizer level and RCS pressure. Subsequently, overprediction of the break flow through the manway has led to earlier core uncovery than that in the experiment by about 400 seconds. As a whole, it is demonstrated from both the experiment and the analysis that gravity feed has not been sufficient to recover the core level and thus additional forced feed has been necessary in this configuration.

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Stopping Power Ratio Estimation Method Based on Dual-energy Computed Tomography Denoising Images for Proton Radiotherapy Planning (양성자치료계획을 위한 이중에너지 전산화단층촬영 잡음 제거 영상 기반 저지능비 추정 방법)

  • Byungdu Jo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.207-213
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    • 2023
  • Computed tomography (CT) images are used as the basis for proton Bragg peak position estimation and treatment plan simulation. During the Hounsfield Unit (HU) based proton stopping power ratio (SPR) estimation, small differences in the patient's density and elemental composition lead to uncertainty in the Bragg peak positions along the path of the proton beam. In this study, we investigated the potential of dual-energy computed tomography image-based proton SPRs prediction accuracy to reduce the uncertainty of Bragg peak position prediction. Single- and dual-energy images of an electron density phantom (CIRS Model 062M electron density phantom, CIRS Inc., Norfolk, VA, USA) were acquired using a computed tomography system (Somatom Definition AS, Siemens Health Care, Forchheim, Germany) to estimate the SPRs of the proton beam. To validate the method, it was compared to the SPRs estimated from standard data provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The results show that the dual-energy image-based method has the potential to improve accuracy in predicting the SPRs of proton beams, and it is expected that further improvements in predicting the position of the proton's Bragg peak will be possible if a wider variety of substitutes with different densities and elemental compositions of the human body are used to predict the SPRs.

A Prediction Model for the Radiation Safety Management Behavior of Medical Cyclotrons (의료용 Cyclotron의 방사선안전관리 행위 예측모형)

  • Jung, Ji-Hye;Han, Eun-Ok;Kim, Ssang-Tae
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2008
  • This study attempted to provide reference materials for improving the behavior level in radiation safety managements by drawing a prediction model that affects the radiation safety management behavior because the radiation safety management of medical Cyclotrons, which can be used to produce radioisotopes, is an important factor that protects radiation caused diseases not only for radiological operators but average users. In addition, this study obtained follows results through the investigation applied from January 2 to January 30, 2008 for the radiation safety managers employed in 24 authorized organizations, which have already installed Cyclotrons, through applying a specific form of questionnaire in which the validity was guaranteed by reference study, site investigation, and focus discussion by related experts. The radiation safety management were configured as seven steps: Step 1 is a production preparation step, Step 2 is an RI production step, Step 3 is a synthesis step, Step 4 is a distribution step, Step 5 is a quality control step, Step 6 is a carriage container packing step, and Step 7 is a transportation step. it was recognized that the distribution step was the most exposed as 15 subjects (62.5%), the items of 'the sanction and permission related works' and 'the guarantee of installation facilities and production equipments' were the most difficult as 9 subjects (37.5%), and In the trouble steps in such exposure, the item of 'the synthesis and distribution' steps were 4 times, respectively (30.8%). In the score of the behavior level in radiation safety managements, the minimum and maximum scores were 2.42 and 4.00, respectively, and the average score was $3.46{\pm}0.47$ out of 4. Prosperity and well-being programs in the behavior and job in radiation safety managements (r=0.529) represented a significant correlation statistically. In the drawing of a prediction model based on the factors that affected the behavior in radiation safety managements, general characteristics, organization characteristics, and selfefficacy didn't show a significant path statistically in which the prosperity and well-being programs in job characteristics affected the behavior in radiation safety managements. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a strategy that improves the level of prosperity and well-being levels in job characteristics in order to increase the behavior in radiation safety managements. Thus, this study provides basic materials for the radiation safety management of Cyclotron through the full-scale investigation that is first applied in Korea.

The Role of PK/PD Modeling and Simulation in Model-based New Drug Development (모델 기반학적 신약개발에서 약동/약력학 모델링 및 시뮬레이션의 역할)

  • Yun, Hwi-Yeol;Baek, In-Hwan;Seo, Jeong-Won;Bae, Kyung-Jin;Lee, Mann-Hyung;Kang, Won-Ku;Kwon, Kwang-Il
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.84-96
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    • 2008
  • In the recent, pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) modeling has appeared as a critical path tools in new drug development to optimize drug efficacy and safety. PK/PD modeling is the mathematical approaches of the relationships between PK and PD. This approach in new drug development can be estimated inaccessible PK and PD parameters, evaluated competing hypothesis, and predicted the response under new conditions. Additionally, PK/PD modeling provides the information about systemic conditions for understanding the pharmacology and biology. These advantages of PK/PD model development are to provide the early decision-making information in new drug development process, and to improve the prediction power for the success of clinical trials. The purpose of this review article is to summarize the PK/PD modeling process, and to provide the theoretical and practical information about widely used PK/PD models. This review also provides model schemes and the differential equations for the development of PK/PD model.

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Vulnerability Assessment Procedure for the Warship Including the Effect of Shotline and Penetration of Fragments (탄두의 관통 효과를 고려한 함정 취약성 평가 절차에 관한 기본 연구)

  • Kim, Kwang-Sik;Lee, Jang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.254-263
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    • 2012
  • The survivability of warship is assessed by susceptibility, vulnerability and recoverability. Essentially, a vulnerability assessment is a measure of the effectiveness of a warship to resist hostile weapon effects. Considering the shot line and its penetration effect on the warship, present study introduces the procedural aspects of vulnerability assessments of warship. Present study also considers the prediction of penetration damage to a target caused by the impact of projectiles. It reflects the interaction between the weapon and the target from a perspective of vulnerable area method and COVART model. The shotline and tracing calculation have been directly integrated into the vulnerability assessment method based on the penetration equation empirically obtained. A simplified geometric description of the desired target and specification of a threat type is incorporated with the penetration effect. This study describes how to expand the vulnerable area assessment method to the penetration effect. Finally, an example shows that the proposed method can provide the vulnerability parameters of the warship or its component under threat being hit through tracing the shotline path thereby enabling the vulnerability calculation. In addition, the proposed procedure enabling the calculation of the component's multi-hit vulnerability introduces a propulsion system in dealing with redundant Non-overlapping components.

A Unit Touch Gesture Model of Performance Time Prediction for Mobile Devices

  • Kim, Damee;Myung, Rohae
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.277-291
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    • 2016
  • Objective: The aim of this study is to propose a unit touch gesture model, which would be useful to predict the performance time on mobile devices. Background: When estimating usability based on Model-based Evaluation (MBE) in interfaces, the GOMS model measured 'operators' to predict the execution time in the desktop environment. Therefore, this study used the concept of operator in GOMS for touch gestures. Since the touch gestures are comprised of possible unit touch gestures, these unit touch gestures can predict to performance time with unit touch gestures on mobile devices. Method: In order to extract unit touch gestures, manual movements of subjects were recorded in the 120 fps with pixel coordinates. Touch gestures are classified with 'out of range', 'registration', 'continuation' and 'termination' of gesture. Results: As a results, six unit touch gestures were extracted, which are hold down (H), Release (R), Slip (S), Curved-stroke (Cs), Path-stroke (Ps) and Out of range (Or). The movement time predicted by the unit touch gesture model is not significantly different from the participants' execution time. The measured six unit touch gestures can predict movement time of undefined touch gestures like user-defined gestures. Conclusion: In conclusion, touch gestures could be subdivided into six unit touch gestures. Six unit touch gestures can explain almost all the current touch gestures including user-defined gestures. So, this model provided in this study has a high predictive power. The model presented in the study could be utilized to predict the performance time of touch gestures. Application: The unit touch gestures could be simply added up to predict the performance time without measuring the performance time of a new gesture.

A Study on Development of an Earthquake Ground-motion Database Based on the Korean National Seismic Network (국가지진관측망 기반 지진동 데이터베이스 개발 연구)

  • Choi, Sae-Woon;Rhie, Junkee;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Kang, Tae-Seob
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.277-283
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    • 2020
  • In order to improve the ground-motion prediction equation, which is an important factor in seismic hazard assessment, it is essential to obtain good quality seismic data for a region. The Korean Peninsula has an environment in which it is difficult to obtain strong ground motion data. However, because digital seismic observation networks have become denser since the mid-2000s and moderate earthquake events such as the Odaesan earthquake (Jan. 20, 2007, ML 4.8), the 9.12 Gyeongju earthquake (Sep. 12, 2016, ML 5.8), and the Pohang earthquake (Nov. 15, 2017, ML 5.4) have occurred, some good empirical data on ground motion could have been accumulated. In this study, we tried to build a ground motion database that can be used for the development of the ground motion attenuation equation by collecting seismic data accumulated since the 2000s. The database was constructed in the form of a flat file with RotD50 peak ground acceleration, 5% damped pseudo-spectral acceleration, and meta information related to hypocenter, path, site, and data processing. The seismic data used were the velocity and accelerogram data for events over ML 3.0 observed between 2003 and 2019 by the Korean National Seismic Network administered by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The final flat file contains 10,795 ground motion data items for 141 events. Although this study focuses mainly on organizing earthquake ground-motion waveforms and their data processing, it is thought that the study will contribute to reducing uncertainty in evaluating seismic hazard in the Korean Peninsula if detailed information about epicenters and stations is supplemented in the future.

Numerical Study of Contaminant Pathway based on Generic-scenarios and Contaminant-based Scenarios of Vadose Zone (범용 시나리오 및 오염물질 시나리오에 기반한 불포화대 오염물질 경로에 대한 수치모의 연구)

  • Chang, Sun Woo;Kim, Min-Gyu;Chung, Il-Moon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.751-758
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    • 2019
  • This study tested various assumptions that simplified the configuration of the numerical model for unsaturated zone's contaminant transport to simulate the pathway to exposed point. This study investigated the contaminant migration through in the pollutant exposure pathway of vadoze zone for risk assessment of the contaminated site. For the purpose, generic scenarios as well as contaminant-based scenarios were simulated using the numerical code for transport of the contaminant in the pathway. The finite-difference one-dimensional transport with adsorption and biodegradation were considered, and it also assumed that the initial concentration was also depleted over time. The results of the generic-scenario show that as the groundwater infiltration rate decreases, the longer the path from the source to the groundwater level, the lower the concentration at the point of inflow into the groundwater level. In particular, in the case of high biodegradation rate and rapid depletion of pollutant sources, statistically outliers were found in the simulated results and generic scenarios was good at prediction.