• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction of anomaly

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Development of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System for Northern Winter using the Cryospheric Condition of Late Autumn (가을철 빙권 조건을 활용한 겨울철 역학 계절 예측시스템의 개발)

  • Shim, Taehyoun;Jeong, Jee-Hoon;Kim, Baek-Min;Kim, Seong-Joong;Kim, Hyun-Kyung
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.73-83
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    • 2013
  • In recent several years, East Asia, Europe and North America have suffered successive cold winters and a number of historical records on the extreme weathers are replaced with new record-breaking cold events. As a possible explanation, several studies suggested that cryospheric conditions of Northern Hemisphere (NH), i.e. Arctic sea-ice and snow cover over northern part of major continents, are changing significantly and now play an active role for modulating midlatitude atmospheric circulation patterns that could bring cold winters for some regions in midlatitude. In this study, a dynamical seasonal prediction system for NH winter is newly developed using the snow depth initialization technique and statistically predicted sea-ice boundary condition. Since the snow depth shows largest variability in October, entire period of October has been utilized as a training period for the land surface initialization and model land surface during the period is continuously forced by the observed daily atmospheric conditions and snow depths. A simple persistent anomaly decaying toward an averaged sea-ice condition has been used for the statistical prediction of sea-ice boundary conditions. The constructed dynamical prediction system has been tested for winter 2012/13 starting at November 1 using 16 different initial conditions and the results are discussed. Implications and a future direction for further development are also described.

A Study on Efficient AI Model Drift Detection Methods for MLOps (MLOps를 위한 효율적인 AI 모델 드리프트 탐지방안 연구)

  • Ye-eun Lee;Tae-jin Lee
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2023
  • Today, as AI (Artificial Intelligence) technology develops and its practicality increases, it is widely used in various application fields in real life. At this time, the AI model is basically learned based on various statistical properties of the learning data and then distributed to the system, but unexpected changes in the data in a rapidly changing data situation cause a decrease in the model's performance. In particular, as it becomes important to find drift signals of deployed models in order to respond to new and unknown attacks that are constantly created in the security field, the need for lifecycle management of the entire model is gradually emerging. In general, it can be detected through performance changes in the model's accuracy and error rate (loss), but there are limitations in the usage environment in that an actual label for the model prediction result is required, and the detection of the point where the actual drift occurs is uncertain. there is. This is because the model's error rate is greatly influenced by various external environmental factors, model selection and parameter settings, and new input data, so it is necessary to precisely determine when actual drift in the data occurs based only on the corresponding value. There are limits to this. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to detect when actual drift occurs through an Anomaly analysis technique based on XAI (eXplainable Artificial Intelligence). As a result of testing a classification model that detects DGA (Domain Generation Algorithm), anomaly scores were extracted through the SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanations) Value of the data after distribution, and as a result, it was confirmed that efficient drift point detection was possible.

Intrusion Detection based on Intrusion Prediction DB using System Call Sequences (시스템 호출을 이용한 침입예상 데이터베이스 기반 침입탐지)

  • Ko, Ki-Woong;Shin, Wook;Lee, Dong-Ik
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2002.04b
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    • pp.927-930
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    • 2002
  • 본 논문에서는 중요 프로세스(privileged process)의 시스템 호출 순서(system call sequence)를 이용한 침입탐지 시스템을 제안한다. 기존 연구의 정상행위 기반 침입탐지 시스템은 정상행위를 모델링하여 시스템을 구성하고, 이와 비교를 통해 프로세스의 이상(anomaly) 여부를 결정한다. 이러한 방법은 모델링되지 않은 미지의 행위에 대한 적절한 판단을 행할 수 없으므로, 높은 오류율(false-positive/negative)을 보인다. 본 논문에서는 현재까지 알려진 공격에서 공통적으로 나타나는 윈도우들을 수집하여 침입예상윈도우를 구축하고, 이를 기존의 침입탐지 시스템에 부가적으로 사용하여 효과적으로 오류율(false-positive/negative)을 낮출 수 있음을 보인다. 실험 결과 제안된 방법을 통한 침입탐지는 기존의 방법에 비해 공격 탐지율은 증가하고 정상행위에 대한 오류율은 감소하였다.

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A Study on the Development of Anomaly Detection Prediction Model for Deep Learning-Based Drilling Equipment (딥러닝 기반 시추장비 이상 예측 및 진단 모델 개발 연구)

  • Han, Dong-Kwon;Kim, Min-Soo;Kwon, Sun-Il;Choi, Jung-Ho
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2021.05a
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    • pp.404-407
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    • 2021
  • 석유개발 현장에서 시추장비의 고장으로 인한 장비교체 및 시추시간 증가는 막대한 비용소모를 발생시킨다. 본 논문은 딥러닝 기반의 시추장비 중 드릴비트의 동력을 구동시키는 디젤엔진의 고장 요소를 분류하고 이 요소에 따른 고장여부를 판별하는 딥러닝 기반의 이상 예측 및 진단 모델을 개발하였다. 또한 제안한 모델의 우수성을 확인하기 위해 로지스틱 회귀분석 분류모델과의 예측성능 비교분석도 수행하였다.

Regional anomalies of cosmic microwave background power spectrum

  • Ju, Young;Park, Chan-Gyung;Hwang, Jai-Chan
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.38.4-39
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    • 2018
  • We analyze the Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background temperature fluctuation data to find any anomaly in the angular power spectra measured for partial regions on the sky. For disks with radius of $20^{\circ}$, $45^{\circ}$ and $90^{\circ}$, which are densely overlapping on the sky, we estimate the power excess and its statistical significance relative to the LambdaCDM expectation for some chosen ranges of angular scales. We also investigate the dipolar asymmetry using the power excess maps obtained for some chosen angular scales, and confirm the previously announced consistent dipole directions. The average dipole amplitude and the inner products of dipoles have been measured from the power excess maps at different angular scales. We conclude that although dipole directions are consistent the measured amplitudes are not statistically significant compared to the LambdaCDM model prediction.

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Implementation of Realtime Face Recognition System using Haar-Like Features and PCA in Mobile Environment (모바일 환경에서 Haar-Like Features와 PCA를 이용한 실시간 얼굴 인증 시스템)

  • Kim, Jung Chul;Heo, Bum Geun;Shin, Na Ra;Hong, Ki Cheon
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2010
  • Recently, large amount of information in IDS(Intrusion Detection System) can be un manageable and also be mixed with false prediction error. In this paper, we propose a data mining methodology for IDS, which contains uncertainty based on training process and post-processing analysis additionally. Our system is trained to classify the existing attack for misuse detection, to detect the new attack pattern for anomaly detection, and to define border patter between attack and normal pattern. In experimental results show that our approach improve the performance against existing attacks and new attacks, from 0.62 to 0.84 about 35%.

Optimization of Action Recognition based on Slowfast Deep Learning Model using RGB Video Data (RGB 비디오 데이터를 이용한 Slowfast 모델 기반 이상 행동 인식 최적화)

  • Jeong, Jae-Hyeok;Kim, Min-Suk
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.25 no.8
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    • pp.1049-1058
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    • 2022
  • HAR(Human Action Recognition) such as anomaly and object detection has become a trend in research field(s) that focus on utilizing Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods to analyze patterns of human action in crime-ridden area(s), media services, and industrial facilities. Especially, in real-time system(s) using video streaming data, HAR has become a more important AI-based research field in application development and many different research fields using HAR have currently been developed and improved. In this paper, we propose and analyze a deep-learning-based HAR that provides more efficient scheme(s) using an intelligent AI models, such system can be applied to media services using RGB video streaming data usage without feature extraction pre-processing. For the method, we adopt Slowfast based on the Deep Neural Network(DNN) model under an open dataset(HMDB-51 or UCF101) for improvement in prediction accuracy.

biometric and location data User Location Prediction and Anomaly Detection System Proposal (생체데이터와 위치데이터를 통한 사용자위치 예측 및 이상징후 탐지 시스템제안)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hee;Kang, Hyeok;Lee, Keun-Ho
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.122-123
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    • 2022
  • 최근 들어 인공지능에 대한 발달과 많은 매체들로 인해 사람들의 관심이 증가하고 있다. 또한 GPS 나 Beacon 과 같이 위치 측위 기술이 증가함에 따라 실외 측위 기술이 많이 발달되었고, 실내에서도 사용자의 정확한 위치를 측정할 수 있는 기술들이 발달되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 RNN 알고리즘을 이용하여 비콘을 통해 수집된 사용자의 반복적이고 순차적인 위치정보, 타임스탬프 데이터를 학습시키고 ECG 를 결합하여 사용자 인증을 하여 사용자의 시간별 위치 예측과 이상 징후 탐지 시스템을 제안하고자 한다.

Video anomaly detection using multi-frame prediction error (다중 프레임 예측 에러를 활용한 영상 이상 탐지)

  • Kim, Yujun;Kim, Young-Gab
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2022.11a
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    • pp.498-500
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    • 2022
  • 공공 안전을 위한 영상 감시 시스템이 증가함에 따라 CCTV 관제사가 관제해야 할 영상의 수가 증가하고 있다. 점점 증가하는 관제 영상 수로 인해 CCTV 관제사는 수많은 영상 사이에서 발생하는 살인, 강도, 폭력 등 위급한 이상 상황을 놓치는 문제가 발생할 수 있다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 최근에는 영상에서 발생하는 이상 상황을 자동으로 탐지하고 CCTV 관제사에게 알려 관제 효율을 향상시키는 연구가 진행되고 있다. 본 논문은 영상에서 발생하는 이상 상황을 자동으로 탐지하기 위해 예측 기반 이상 탐지 방법에 다중 프레임 예측 에러를 활용해서 영상 이상 탐지 정확도를 향상시키는 방법을 제안한다. 결과적으로 제안한 방법을 사용함으로써 프레임 레벨 AUC가 Ped2 데이터 셋에서 92.70%에서 94.56%, Avenue 데이터셋에서 87.37%에서 89.17%로 상승하였다.

Surface Synoptic Climatic Patterns for Heavy Snowfall Events in the Republic of Korea (우리나라 대설 시 지상 종관 기후 패턴)

  • Choi, Gwang-Yong;Kim, Jun-Su
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.319-341
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    • 2010
  • The purposes of this study are to classify heavy snowfall types in the Republic of Korea based on fresh snowfall data and atmospheric circulation data during the last 36(1973/74-2008/09) snow seasons and to identify typical surface synoptic climate patterns that characterize each heavy snowfall type. Four synoptic climate categories and seventeen regional heavy snowfall types are classified based on sea level pressure/surface wind vector patterns in East Asia and frequent spatial clustering patterns of heavy snowfall in the Republic of Korea, respectively. Composite analyses of multiple surface synoptic weather charts demonstrate that the locations and intensity of pressure/wind vector mean and anomaly cores in East Asia differentiate each regional heavy snowfall type in Korea. These differences in synoptic climatic fields are primarily associated with the surge of the Siberian high pressure system and the appearance of low pressure systems over the Korean Peninsula. In terms of hemispheric atmospheric circulation, synoptic climatic patterns in the negative mode of winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) are also associated with frequent heavy snowfall in the Republic of Korea at seasonal scales. These results from long-term synoptic climatic data could contribute to improvement of short-range or seasonal prediction of regional heavy snowfall.